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Author Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order  (Read 530123 times)
fr4nkthetank
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June 07, 2016, 01:42:12 AM
 #341

I like these speculations.  Another way to view it this:  If you have s7's that you want to sell, sell now or wait ?  We know miners hit a "floor" value at some point.  So is selling an s7 for 250$ reasonable right now ?  How much will it be worth after halving ?  In october ?  100$?  Maybe its better to keep it ?  I too feel (and I have said before) we are due for a massive pump, and the last one took at least a quarter to materialize, this one will be longer.  Mayyyybe, just maybe, the smart move is to keep the s7's until they hit "floor" value, and just keep that sweet btc, and dont give it to Bitmain.  Then at some point switch em for the s9's or actually skip this generation.  Its a tough call.  Like I feel btc will really double or triple, and i'd buy a ton of it, but unfortunately money doesnt grow on trees.
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philipma1957
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June 07, 2016, 01:44:50 AM
 #342

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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June 07, 2016, 01:50:33 AM
 #343

I've got about half a dozen S7 running in hosting on dual Dell 750s. The difference with a new batch will be the option for 6-pin cabling, which people seem to like because, though far less versatile, it's quick and clean. I'd probably be selling these boards out the butt if I had any for the last six months, but things have been tight around the shop between Compacs and DPS8/12 boards and people waiting a month and a half to pay their bills. Money definitely does not grow on trees around here.

A 208V-fed DPS1200 will run a 135-chip S7 on stock settings. Runs hot, but it runs.

Good schematics would be nice. Heck of a lot easier than reverse-engineering, and cheaper. Tomorrow's task will be hacking away at Avalon stuff since they didn't provide an A3218 datasheet. After that will be hacking away at an S7LN board. Making things work and making things work better are always fun.

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June 07, 2016, 01:57:52 AM
 #344

not.you asked the following but deleted his question:  "Is that image of the calculator based on 25 coins per block or 12.5?"

I halved the price in my calculation from $655.20 in that month to $327.60 because of blocks reducing from 25 to 12.5.

EDIT:  I'm basically saying your profits with an S9 will look quite nice through October, 2016.  However, don't be surprised if difficulty begins to increase at a rate faster than bitcoin price increase after October, 2016.  Your profits after power costs may reduce from $200+ each month to $100+ each month by December, 2016 IF THE PRICE OF BITCOIN DOES NOT INCREASE TO THE PROJECTED $1,500 I've speculated in my 3-Day price chart by end of 2016.  However, if bitcoin price does increase to $1,500 by end of 2016, you can expect the percentage rate of difficulty to increase at a similar percentage rate with bitcoin price until the end of 2016 and continue to enjoy $200+ profits per S9 monthly.  However, I can see the difficulty increase exponentially in 2017 if the price of bitcoin increased to $1,500.

Yeah I went back and reread your post and figured out the answer to my question so I deleted it.
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June 07, 2016, 01:58:55 AM
 #345

As far as base price for S7, where did you guys get $250? This does not exist (yet).
Maybe, that is what you are bidding, but i have seen S7 sold for BTC0.75 ($435, although in EU) just today.
It very well may be that base price would be $300-350 for a while. In fact, if BTC gets to $800 (hypothetically) shortly after halving, it would still be marginally profitable at 7-9c and wildly profitable in WA, Labrador, South America or other low electricity cost areas. Three S7 would still bring the same coin as S9 if your electricity price is very low.
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June 07, 2016, 02:15:27 AM
 #346

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

Me too, since no miners were available I dumped the 300Th of Avalons and bought 5 Gh of GPU's etc and have made a killing.  I must say it is a pain in the ass to run all those GPU's and I would much rather be mining Bitcoin directly but the state of affairs with Bitcoin mining is making it difficult.

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June 07, 2016, 02:20:29 AM
 #347

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

Me too, since no miners were available I dumped the 300Th of Avalons and bought 5 Gh of GPU's etc and have made a killing.  I must say it is a pain in the ass to run all those GPU's and I would much rather be mining Bitcoin directly but the state of affairs with Bitcoin mining is making it difficult.

All I can run at my place is 2kw, hence a small effort with 12-13 GPUs.
5gh, that is probably minimum 40kw or more-do you have a farm or something?
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June 07, 2016, 02:34:14 AM
 #348

As far as base price for S7, where did you guys get $250? This does not exist (yet).
Maybe, that is what you are bidding, but i have seen S7 sold for BTC0.75 ($435, although in EU) just today.
It very well may be that base price would be $300-350 for a while. In fact, if BTC gets to $800 (hypothetically) shortly after halving, it would still be marginally profitable at 7-9c and wildly profitable in WA, Labrador, South America or other low electricity cost areas. Three S7 would still bring the same coin as S9 if your electricity price is very low.

this is why we have not lowered our selling price too much on the 2 s-7's and 3 avalon6's  left in the solar setup

the power is 'free' or 5 cents.

 Free since it  has been built and paid for.  fives cents since the power company would pay 5 cents to buy the power.

At five cents 22th makes  675 from now until july 4th

at 0 cents 22th makes     861 from now until july 4th

at zero cents 22th    makes 900 from july 4th to sept 4th

at five cents 22th makes    497 from july 4th to sept 4th


So holding the 5 pieces for 3 months = 1175 to 1761    depends on your math.




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June 07, 2016, 02:43:58 AM
 #349

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

It's not that clear cut.

What makes you think you only mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year?

If you started the last two weeks of July with the following difficulty changes:

.2624 BTC mined the last 2 weeks of July with difficulty at 187.824 Billion
.2515 BTC mined 2 weeks later (August 1, 2016) 5% increase August 1, 2016, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
.2391 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
.2277 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
.2168 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increased another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
.1885 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increased 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs online.]
.1640 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increased 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
.1477 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increased 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]
.1368 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid November) the difficulty increased 8% from 333.670 Billion to 360.364 Billion.
.1319 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of November) the difficulty increased 12% from 333.670 Billion to 373.710 Billion.
.1221 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 8% from 373.710 Billion to 403.607 Billion.
.1152 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 6% from 403.607 Billion to 427.824 Billion.

2.2037 BTC mined approximately by end of December 2016.  This does not include paying for power costs.

The outlook on how many bitcoin mined per S9 looks kind of disappointing after December, 2016 if the difficulty plays out the way I'm speculating.  Maybe you think it's impossible for difficulty to increase this much in a relatively short period of time.  However, I believe it would be achieved quite easily.  Especially, if another manufacturer comes out with similar efficiency rigs.  Think about it, the S9 is MORE THAN TRIPLE THE HASH RATE of the previous S7 at virtually the same power consumption.  Is it not reasonable to conclude the difficulty could easily double within a 5 to 6 month period with that kind of performance.  Especially, if Bitmain is not the only manufacturer with this technology.

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June 07, 2016, 02:59:40 AM
 #350

Knowing sidehack's precision, he probably already cranked the numbers that he posted as being the likeliest.
Why would we get a drop anyway (from now to July)?
Plus, minor point, but S9 is NOT more than three times S7 (at least not B1, 3, 5,7, 8-16). 14/4.86 (B1,3,5)=2.88; 14/5.06 (B7)=2.77; 14/4.73 (B>eight)=2.96
Just saying.
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June 07, 2016, 03:09:41 AM
 #351

Okay  lets argue

 old hash                                     = 400ph before s-7

soon to be old hash                      = 900ph   the S-7 and friends

new hash on and off with a switch = 500ph after s-7


I believe the numbers above are close to correct right now

the ½ ing comes  how much of the 1300ph drops.   I say 600ph drops  but that 500ph of new seems to already be here.

so  they may give us a big drop  after the ½ ing , but in August ,Sept, Oct up up and away.

I study these charts a lot and the spike has become very commonplace.

It is how I determine offline gear.



a screenshot of the chart below  this shows the older spike


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June 07, 2016, 03:21:25 AM
 #352

Biodom - Actually I was just winging it and using numbers that would backtrack to S9 purchase price for comparison. But using dmwardjr's mining return numbers...

So an S9 would cost me a quarter coin in power if coin is at $1500, leaving me 1.95BTC from the 2.2BTC mined if I roll the entire power cost forward each month for a recompense in December. Though unrealistic, that makes the comparison easier (and also the most optimistic).

So I should buy 1.95BTC right now for about $1150 and cash it out for $2900 at the end of the year for a net profit of $1750?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100, buy an S9, pay $360 in electric over the next 6 months, mine 2.2BTC and cash it out for about $3300 at the end of the year for a net profit of about $800?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and cash it out at the end of the year for around $5400 for a net profit of around $3300 and no monthly expenditure?

If I'm paying monthly for power on an S9 by selling the required amount of coin monthly, I only actually keep around 1.86BTC by the end of it, so I'd cash out for about $2800 and a net profit of $700. Or I could have bought 1.86BTC for about $1100 and cash it at the end of the year for a $1700 profit.

Your numbers aren't very favorable for buying an S9 fresh. If an S7 runs 1/3 the hashrate it should net 1/3 the coinage, so about 0.73BTC which is currently valued at around $430. I can get an S7 aftermarket for around 0.5BTC and spend 0.25BTC on power (if I roll all my costs forward to recompense in December) for an ultimate breakeven. Or I can keep the BTC and cash out at year's end for a $450 profit. Dang, as much as I like the idea of $1500 coin those numbers really aren't encouraging at all for miners.

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June 07, 2016, 03:29:57 AM
Last edit: June 07, 2016, 03:42:26 AM by philipma1957
 #353

Biodom - Actually I was just winging it and using numbers that would backtrack to S9 purchase price for comparison. But using dmwardjr's mining return numbers...

So an S9 would cost me a quarter coin in power if coin is at $1500, leaving me 1.95BTC from the 2.2BTC mined if I roll the entire power cost forward each month for a recompense in December. Though unrealistic, that makes the comparison easier (and also the most optimistic).

So I should buy 1.95BTC right now for about $1150 and cash it out for $2900 at the end of the year for a net profit of $1750?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100, buy an S9, pay $360 in electric over the next 6 months, mine 2.2BTC and cash it out for about $3300 at the end of the year for a net profit of about $800?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and cash it out at the end of the year for around $5400 for a net profit of around $3300 and no monthly expenditure?

If I'm paying monthly for power on an S9 by selling the required amount of coin monthly, I only actually keep around 1.86BTC by the end of it, so I'd cash out for about $2800 and a net profit of $700. Or I could have bought 1.86BTC for about $1100 and cash it at the end of the year for a $1700 profit.

Your numbers aren't very favorable for buying an S9 fresh. If an S7 runs 1/3 the hashrate it should net 1/3 the coinage, so about 0.73BTC which is currently valued at around $430. I can get an S7 aftermarket for around 0.5BTC and spend 0.25BTC on power (if I roll all my costs forward to recompense in December) for an ultimate breakeven. Or I can keep the BTC and cash out at year's end for a $450 profit. Dang, as much as I like the idea of $1500 coin those numbers really aren't encouraging at all for miners.

the problem as I see is how much growth?

Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s

Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s

30 jumps we did an average of  2.1%

so from the 7th of june for 30 jumps do we do 2.1%?

in 3 jumps you earn 1.1 btc if you have an s-9 and 5 cent power

and in 30 jumps you earn  8.38 btc

if you have 10 cent power you earn .88 before the  ½ ing
and you earn 5.6 btc   

so the s-9  need that growth rate above to do well

the network did that  so it could do it again. or it could do this rate


May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s


this is 7.1%    and thats is fucked.

so do you think we do 2.1% for 30 jumps  or 7.1% for 15 jumps


This is the bet  pure and simple . 

2.1% growth and the s-9 will be really nice.

7.1% growth and the s-9 will suck.    Buy and   hodl wins

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June 07, 2016, 03:30:21 AM
 #354

Anybody ever heard of Bitmain offering 50% discount to VIP customers?

t.me/bitcoinasic
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June 07, 2016, 03:43:20 AM
Last edit: June 08, 2016, 01:12:11 AM by NotFuzzyWarm
 #355

With all the talk on ROi, all I can say is:
Jan 2014, bought 2x 10GHs BFL miners from TigerDirect for $349 ea.. Quickly was hooked.

Feb 28 2014, Saw AMT's 512GHs miner for $4,000. Considering that Antminer s1's were around $2,300 at this time and from an unknown to me at-that-time Chinese company, I ordered the AMT A1 rig, eventually was sent a 1.2THs Dragon clone from AMT in Sept. 2014.

Late March 2014, getting tired of AMT's stall tactics but since still hooked, took a deep breath and ordered 2x Ant s1's  now @ $1,200ea through Amazon (Buyer protection and all that).

Mid to late April 2014, getting good returns, bought 2x more Ant s1's @ $750 each, again through Amazon.

Those are all the miners bought with $USD for a grand total of $8,598.00

Since then all expansion and upgrades of my farm has been solely financed using BTC earned from mining with the upgrades covering all Bitmain models except the s5+, most of the time getting at least 1 batch-1 and paying the price for it. Naturally all sales were/are now directly through Bitmain aside from what was apparently the very last new-unused-in-box s4+ that I got through Zoomhash.

I've bought probably close to $10k worth of consumer and IT goods from Tigerdirect using BTC -- which more than covers my total cash outlay when I got started -- before their consumer div went under last Dec. (and their CEO along with former Owner went to prison...)

Now running 110THs worth of mostly s7's (and have two b18 spares doh!) and even after ordering a s9 I still have >25BTC in the active kitty. So mining never makes ROI much less NET income how?

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June 07, 2016, 03:44:34 AM
 #356

Knowing sidehack's precision, he probably already cranked the numbers that he posted as being the likeliest.
Why would we get a drop anyway (from now to July)?
Plus, minor point, but S9 is NOT more than three times S7 (at least not B1, 3, 5,7, 8-16). 14/4.86 (B1,3,5)=2.88; 14/5.06 (B7)=2.77; 14/4.73 (B>eight)=2.96
Just saying.

You have a point.  But still, it's right at 3 times.

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June 07, 2016, 04:02:18 AM
 #357

NFW - I was rocking a similar roll-it-forward from about September 2013 through summer 2014 - started with a $400 AM Blade purchase and turned it into upward of 3TH by about June without any additional outlay. But that's when I shifted from pure mining to collecting interesting hardware. I traded a bunch of S1 off for an S2 even though I actually lost hashrate because I didn't already have one. I think the S3 in September 2014 was the last new miner I fetched until just the other day. Had I not switched gears and kept rocking maximizing hashrate I'd probably be upward of 100TH by now.

NFW, how much of your farm is on free power?

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June 07, 2016, 04:06:58 AM
Last edit: June 08, 2016, 12:52:16 AM by NotFuzzyWarm
 #358

About 16-17kw giving ~86.4THs is at work (free) the rest is at home @ 15cents/kwh (ouch!) but a s7 still makes about $5.86/day there after feeding. All depending on pool luck of course. On Kano the $5+ something seems to be the going long-term average. Historically I've always ran 5-6kw worth of miners at home at home since the late s1 days.

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June 07, 2016, 04:07:04 AM
 #359

S9 can hash in other pools as usual. I will upload more screenshots from other pools as they becomes available.






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June 07, 2016, 04:09:32 AM
 #360

I have 3 S7's from 3 different batches and mining on Kano with greater than 100% luck, none of them have broken even yet, although 2 of them are close if I do not include the PSU.  But I do include the PSU in my ROI calculations since I buy them from newegg with BTC.  I bought brand new EVGA 1600's for the S7's so they were somewhere around 1 BTC each at the time of purchase.  So those two S7's need to generate about 1.2 BTC to break even on the miner itself plus the PSU.  My 3rd S7 is further behind, it needs another half bitcoin to get caught up to the other two, so 1.7 BTC to break even on the miner plus the PSU.  I expect I will probably break even on the miners by the halving but the PSU's may not get paid for for some time.  I could sell the S7's at or close to break even on the miner and upgrade to S9's (just transfer the cost of the PSU's from the S7's to the S9's in my calculations) but I am with Puffy on this, it would cost more BTC then it would generate so totally not worth it at the current price.  If BTC value continues to rise it may get to a point where it is worth it even at $2100 but we got a lot more value to go up before that happens.  I have never purchased BTC with fiat so all of my miners are purchased with BTC I already mined going back a while now.  It makes zero sense for me to buy a miner with BTC I already have that will generate less BTC than it costs.  Until that calculus changes I won't be buying one of these things.

Shame, 3 S7s can be powered with less than $150 in PSU (2 IBM 2000 Watt PSUs ~35 each, breakout board $65 from finsky, and $2.50 PCIe cables). If you don't have 240 Volt, upgrade can be done for as low as $500 when you hire an electrician.

For quality risers, splitters or 133 CFM fans, please visit my eBay listings,
http://www.ebay.com/sch/hawkfish007/m.html?_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1
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