Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order

[rizla.plus]

You can't because you won't know what the difficulty will do without knowing how BTC/USD is doing. The two are correlated, we just don't know how. It's like asking which came first, the chicken or the egg. Does the difficulty go up because BTC/USD is doing well, or is BTC/USD doing well because the difficulty is going up?

You can't assume that the difficulty is going to just keep rising without BTC/USD rising with it, or people wouldn't keep plugging in their miners, as mining would no longer be profitable.

Yes BTC/USD and network hashrate are very likely correlated.
But here's the thing, there is a massive lag between the numbers (caused by Bitmain mostly), so the enormous amount hashing power coming online now and in the next few months is a result of BTC/USD increase over the last 6 months.

It could very well flatten out again once this all settles but what the spreadsheet shows is that you would need it to flatten out very, very, very, soon, like in the next month or two, even quicker than the most optimistic scenario presented in the spreadsheet, for an S9 to pay itself back and become profitable in 2018. And be serious, look at this chart:
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/5y?c=m&g=15&t=a
You really think that is realistic?

You could have made the same spreadsheet and made the same predictions a year ago and said: "Look, the difficulty is predicted to keep rising, it would be better to just buy BTC and not a miner because a couple months from now, your miners won't be making anything". That wouldn't have worked then for the same reason it doesn't work now, because you're not assuming anything about BTC/USD!

You are spot on.
Up until very recently mining has never been profitable for most of the Western world, only where power is dead-cheap was it profitable but on average most of us were just breaking even or below the profit line.
In the Western World it was always more of a hobby thing, you could always make more money investing directly into your favorite crypto.

It's only because BTC value has increased so much over the last 6 months that all of the sudden an opportunity has presented itself for everyone to make money.
But network hashrate is quickly catching up again, and BTC value is now staggering so it will probably even overshoot before bringing things back to balance. (meaning a period of profit for nobody at worst)

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[kenji]

You can't because you won't know what the difficulty will do without knowing how BTC/USD is doing. The two are correlated, we just don't know how. It's like asking which came first, the chicken or the egg. Does the difficulty go up because BTC/USD is doing well, or is BTC/USD doing well because the difficulty is going up?

You can't assume that the difficulty is going to just keep rising without BTC/USD rising with it, or people wouldn't keep plugging in their miners, as mining would no longer be profitable.

Yes BTC/USD and network hashrate are very likely correlated.
But here's the thing, there is a massive lag between the numbers (caused by Bitmain mostly), so the enormous amount hashing power coming online now and in the next few months is a result of BTC/USD increase over the last 6 months.

It could very well flatten out again once this all settles but what the spreadsheet shows is that you would need it to flatten out very, very, very, soon, like in the next month or two, even quicker than the most optimistic scenario presented in the spreadsheet, for an S9 to pay itself back and become profitable in 2018. And be serious, look at this chart:
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/5y?c=m&g=15&t=a
You really think that is realistic?

You could have made the same spreadsheet and made the same predictions a year ago and said: "Look, the difficulty is predicted to keep rising, it would be better to just buy BTC and not a miner because a couple months from now, your miners won't be making anything". That wouldn't have worked then for the same reason it doesn't work now, because you're not assuming anything about BTC/USD!

You are spot on.
Up until very recently mining has never been profitable for most of the Western world, only where power is dead-cheap was it profitable but on average most of us were just breaking even or below the profit line.
In the Western World it was always more of a hobby thing, you could always make more money investing directly into your favorite crypto.

It's only because BTC value has increased so much over the last 6 months that all of the sudden an opportunity has presented itself for everyone to make money.
But network hashrate is quickly catching up again, and BTC value is now staggering so it will probably even overshoot before bringing things back to balance. (meaning a period of profit for nobody at worst)

Sure, the past 8 months has seen a huge surge in price, but if you look at the difficulty, that has surged almost right along with it.  

I think you're right in that the recent surge in price has increased profits for miners, but not to the extreme that you make out. I think the recent spike in profit is going to drop back down to normal levels with these new S9's being released in the coming months. That's where our opinions differ. I think it's going to be to where the S9 is no longer going to be extremely profitable, just back down to where profits were before, which was normally profitable to start with. It's not like mining wasn't profitable 8 months ago before the price of bitcoin surged 1000%. I've been turning a profit mining for years, only recently has it become stupidly profitable, and of course we're all expecting that to go away. What we're not expecting is your prediction that our miners will be making nothing in a couple of months.

[rizla.plus]

Sure, the past 8 months has seen a huge surge in price, but if you look at the difficulty, that has surged almost right along with it.  

I think you're right in that the recent surge in price has increased profits for miners, but not to the extreme that you make out. I think the recent spike in profit is going to drop back down to normal levels with these new S9's being released in the coming months. That's where our opinions differ. I think it's going to be to where the S9 is no longer going to be extremely profitable, just back down to where profits were before, which was normally profitable to start with. It's not like mining wasn't profitable 8 months ago before the price of bitcoin surged 1000%. I've been turning a profit mining for years, only recently has it become stupidly profitable, and of course we're all expecting that to go away. What we're not expecting is your prediction that our miners will be making nothing in a couple of months.

I think I will leave it at that, I don't think my numbers will ever convince you so lets wait and see, and agree to disagree for now.

Can I suggest one last thing? Download the spreadsheet if you haven't already done so, and set an alarm in your calendar for the 1st of March, I will do the same.
Lets compare the hashrate/earnings forecast with what has actually happened at that point in time and see how far I was off.
We can discuss further then perhaps? I'll be back on here :-)
(Maybe in the mining speculation thread though, where this belongs)

[The Demon Slick]

What if hashrate drops? Say China goes down. Or S. Korea. Just for the sake of argument.

[Apprentice]

What if hashrate drops? Say China goes down. Or S. Korea. Just for the sake of argument.

It looks like they are already relocating their operations.

[rizla.plus]

What if hashrate drops? Say China goes down. Or S. Korea. Just for the sake of argument.

It looks like they are already relocating their operations.

It would be really really really good for miners elsewhere in the world if all big mining farms in China would just go “Oh well, we’ve had a good run, lets throw all our S9’s in the bin and close the place down”.

But seriously, these giant mining farms with millions of their dollars locked up in thousands of miners are going to just move their investment and when they do, it will be so quick you won’t even notice it. Miners that are not running are miners that are costing you money so if you move them, you want to make sure you do this as efficiently as possible and you make sure everything is ready on the other side to turn them on as soon as they arrive.

[The Demon Slick]

I'm not discussing will or won't. Just asking what if it does?

[rizla.plus]

I'm not discussing will or won't. Just asking what if it does?

I just said, it would be really really really good for miners elsewhere in the world if the total network hashrate would all of the sudden drop by 70%.

It’s as if a pie that was previously cut into 10 pieces is now cut into 3 pieces, you still get one piece but it’s now a hell of a lot bigger. :-)

[CrypotoCreanis]

FYI, our Dec 20-30 Jan 11-20 order finally shipped.

Same here. Already got the call from ups for my SS info. Expected to be stateside Friday

Customs Fees for 2 to the US $110.25

[Megaquake]

I just received an S9 late Dec. start using it 31st with no issue till today, I notice fan 1 was saying 0 and the temp went up from 79 to 82c so I carefully removed fan 1 and it was working but not reporting a speed signal, should I replace the fan or let it run?

I have the fan speed manually set to 80%

[Druiz287]

What if hashrate drops? Say China goes down. Or S. Korea. Just for the sake of argument.

It looks like they are already relocating their operations.

It would be really really really good for miners elsewhere in the world if all big mining farms in China would just go “Oh well, we’ve had a good run, lets throw all our S9’s in the bin and close the place down”.

But seriously, these giant mining farms with millions of their dollars locked up in thousands of miners are going to just move their investment and when they do, it will be so quick you won’t even notice it. Miners that are not running are miners that are costing you money so if you move them, you want to make sure you do this as efficiently as possible and you make sure everything is ready on the other side to turn them on as soon as they arrive.

I agree here.  The mining equipment will not be permanently shut down.  At worse, they will be temporarily turned off until they are relocated whether within that company or with new owners.

Edit:  If you buy miners using your company, and you don't expense them right away, I would suggest the double declining method for amortizing your equipment costs if you're worried about difficulty increases and profits diminishing over time, which I also agree is pretty much a given at this point.

[lossol]

I have 2 miners coming from Bitmain and got screwed choosing UPS for $140 shipping.They wouldn't let me choose Fedex and Bitmain said I might not get my miners if I chose DHL. They shipped both my miners together instead of individually like some members said on this forum. Others said UPS only charged them $50 or less to USA. UPS is charging me $277 for customs duties and brokerage fees. I should've went with DHL. Is anyone else getting charged these fees? Which is cheaper with all duties & fees included, DHL or FEdEx?

[CrypotoCreanis]

I have 2 miners coming from Bitmain and got screwed choosing UPS for $140 shipping.They wouldn't let me choose Fedex and Bitmain said I might not get my miners if I chose DHL. They shipped both my miners together instead of individually like some members said on this forum. Others said UPS only charged them $50 or less to USA. UPS is charging me $277 for customs duties and brokerage fees. I should've went with DHL. Is anyone else getting charged these fees? Which is cheaper with all duties & fees included, DHL or FEdEx?

The customs and duty fees are the same regardless of what shipper you use. The cost will depend on the value of your shipment. I paid $110 today at ups for 2 $1415 S9’s. The shipping charges are clearly stated before  you checkout.

[rizla.plus]

Edit:  If you buy miners using your company, and you don't expense them right away, I would suggest the double declining method for amortizing your equipment costs if you're worried about difficulty increases and profits diminishing over time, which I also agree is pretty much a given at this point.

Hmmm, that's a hard one, you might be right
You certainly need an accelerated depreciation method simply because mining time lost today is worse than mining time lost tomorrow (because of the increasing total network hashrate & following difficulty).
Normally the double declining balance method assumes faster depreciation in the beginning of the asset's life and slower depreciation near the end to account for lower maintenance costs in the beginning of the asset's life vs. the end, but it could be seen to account for the above as well.

[bl1nd]

Hey guys a small question i ordered 6 antminers s9 in the last batch sold i paid using a wire transfer from USA did everything perfect, selected pay all fees, my order status now is PAYING and VALID also it shows what they recieved it shows i sent 14447$ and they recieved 14442$ not my fault since i paid my fees on my side. Am i in the clear? or do i need to pay those 5$ for them to change my order to paid?

PD: First time ordering from bitmain

[lossol]

@CryptoCreanis
That $277 UPS is asking for is for 2 S9 at $1415 also. Customs tax & duty is $98.50 out of the $277; UPS is charging me $178.5 for broker fee.

[accssg]

Hey guys a small question i ordered 6 antminers s9 in the last batch sold i paid using a wire transfer from USA did everything perfect, selected pay all fees, my order status now is PAYING and VALID also it shows what they recieved it shows i sent 14447$ and they recieved 14442$ not my fault since i paid my fees on my side. Am i in the clear? or do i need to pay those 5$ for them to change my order to paid?

PD: First time ordering from bitmain

open a ticket, they give you a bitcoin address to pay the difference. or have a new wire.
If you do not pay, do not send,

[CrypotoCreanis]

@CryptoCreanis
That $277 UPS is asking for is for 2 S9 at $1415 also. Customs tax & duty is $98.50 out of the $277; UPS is charging me $178.5 for broker fee.

That’s odd for sure

[bl1nd]

Hey guys a small question i ordered 6 antminers s9 in the last batch sold i paid using a wire transfer from USA did everything perfect, selected pay all fees, my order status now is PAYING and VALID also it shows what they recieved it shows i sent 14447$ and they recieved 14442$ not my fault since i paid my fees on my side. Am i in the clear? or do i need to pay those 5$ for them to change my order to paid?

PD: First time ordering from bitmain

open a ticket, they give you a bitcoin address to pay the difference. or have a new wire.
If you do not pay, do not send,

Damnnnn paying 45$ for a 5$ wire that sucks i guess im gonna do it just in case

[lossol]

@CryptoCreanis
UPS doesn't charge you a fee for clearing customs or do you clear the items thru customs yourself?
If I don't pay the fee, they'll probably ship it back to Bitmain.

Has anyone used DHL in the US and not paid an exorbitant fee like UPS is charging me?