Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order

[floppydisk]

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

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[Apprentice]

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

you think they care?

it is worthless to buy more miner for small miner or starters.

[pnbamania]

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

you think they care?

it is worthless to buy more miner for small miner or starters.

My S9's from FEB batch were shipped today. I am f***ing scared what to do, sell them or wait.. with current ROI..

Also on the side note people said that they are banking on my BCH but here is the scenario for me.



I actually bought when BTC and BCH were in the sky before they went down.. so current rate same amount of BCH = 5580.72445 USD

Back then 16780.27 USD (6 Ant Miners)

[CrypotoCreanis]

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

This is like trying to convince an options trader to just buy the underlying stock because the options MAY expire worthless. What you fail to grasp is that yes, we know the S9 will eventually become worthless. HOWEVER, that is only if we decide to hold them long enough that they are impossible to sell. I for one plan on selling them before that. I will mine with them long after a new model is out though, yet still be able to sell them. Will I get less than I paid? Probably. But it will still be more than 0 which negates any and all ROI calculations in my opinion.

Even more importantly, again just like in options trading, my downside is limited to my investment in hardware. My upside is potentially limitless by mining and hodl'ing. My upside is exponentially greater by mining than it is buying btc outright. And I will still own hardware with a value.

[pnbamania]

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

This is like trying to convince an options trader to just buy the underlying stock because the options MAY expire worthless. What you fail to grasp is that yes, we know the S9 will eventually become worthless. HOWEVER, that is only if we decide to hold them long enough that they are impossible to sell. I for one plan on selling them before that. I will mine with them long after a new model is out though, yet still be able to sell them. Will I get less than I paid? Probably. But it will still be more than 0 which negates any and all ROI calculations in my opinion.

Even more importantly, again just like in options trading, my downside is limited to my investment in hardware. My upside is potentially limitless by mining and hodl'ing. My upside is exponentially greater by mining than it is buying btc outright. And I will still own hardware with a value.

but my point is that I will receive my Ant miners in next few days and there is a massive demand in my City and people are willing to 5K  each, If I were to sell them now for 5K each and buy BTC since it's low and hold for a long time, I think I would profit more then actually mining..

[CrypotoCreanis]

As I mentioned in the post above, the network hashrate has doubled in the last 2 months, and it is growing even faster now, much faster. So how long do you think an S9 will remain profitable for?
Just do the math!

What if the price of BTC will be $30k be the end of the year? Means the $400 I made from machine this month will be $2k? "Do the math!" lol

Yep, but under that scenario you're still better investing the money you pay for a miner directly into bitcoin now, if all you're banking on is BTC value to go up.
In a year's time you'll be left with more BTC (valued at $30k),

You do the math, how much BTC can you buy now for the price of a miner? Will it make that much BTC this year? The answer should be obvious.

This is like trying to convince an options trader to just buy the underlying stock because the options MAY expire worthless. What you fail to grasp is that yes, we know the S9 will eventually become worthless. HOWEVER, that is only if we decide to hold them long enough that they are impossible to sell. I for one plan on selling them before that. I will mine with them long after a new model is out though, yet still be able to sell them. Will I get less than I paid? Probably. But it will still be more than 0 which negates any and all ROI calculations in my opinion.

Even more importantly, again just like in options trading, my downside is limited to my investment in hardware. My upside is potentially limitless by mining and hodl'ing. My upside is exponentially greater by mining than it is buying btc outright. And I will still own hardware with a value.

but my point is that I will receive my Ant miners in next few days and there is a massive demand in my City and people are willing to 5K  each, If I were to sell them now for 5K each and buy BTC since it's low and hold for a long time, I think I would profit more then actually mining..

Everyone's situation is different. Maybe keep some and sell some to hedge your bets.

[pnbamania]

Everything (S9 included) is for sale again!!!!!

Man, they should control the supply. We have enough hash rate globally.

you think they care?

it is worthless to buy more miner for small miner or starters.

My S9's from FEB batch were shipped today. I am f***ing scared what to do, sell them or wait.. with current ROI..

Also on the side note people said that they are banking on my BCH but here is the scenario for me.



I actually bought when BTC and BCH were in the sky before they went down.. so current rate same amount of BCH = 5580.72445 USD

Back then 16780.27 USD (6 Ant Miners)

Were you early Feb or late Feb? I am curious... They have been pretty good lately supposedly and have been shipping out 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule.

Late Feb.

[HagssFIN]

I am f***ing scared what to do

Rule #1: Never invest more money in crypto than you are able to lose 100%.

[krisgt30]

S9 just released again, same price....

[Apprentice]

I am f***ing scared what to do

Rule #1: Never invest more money in crypto than you are able to lose 100%.

never invest what you can't loose 

[kobo_eth]

I am f***ing scared what to do

Rule #1: Never invest more money in crypto than you are able to lose 100%.

never invest what you can't loose 

Just ordered 2 more of the S9's.
It is actually good that Bitmain keeps the same prices, can you imagine what will happen if they lower the price? Number of machines purchased will go to the moon and difficulty will make mining really useless now.

[bl1nd]

Last week ROI on an S9 purchased on shitmain's website was slightly less than a year at .10/kWh. Today, it's over 400 days which essentially means never as difficulty is still rising and bitcoin is still falling. At this rate, it won't even pay to turn on an S9. I guess all the manufacturers pushed their prices high up so they could squeeze the last bit of profit from us miners before the crash.

I don't know how you're running the numbers, but they're wrong. First of all the ROI of an S9 is not anywhere near as long as 400 days, even with bitcoin doing so poorly recently, so that says something right there, that it can keep being profitable even in this environment. Second of all - assuming the difficulty keeps rising and the price of bitcoin keeps falling - yes, the S9 would not make a good investment. However the truth of the matter is that you can't see the future any more or less than the rest of us. You don't know if the price of bitcoin will keep falling, or if it will rise, or what the difficulty will do, etc. If you believe in bitcoin and believe it will make a comeback (which history tells us it will), then you don't base your numbers off today, but what you expect them to be in the future, especially with something as volatile as bitcoin.

This is wishful thinking.
BTC value cannot be forecast but you can make some pretty good predictions about total network hashrate and difficulty, I’ve shared mine on various occasions in this thread and even the best case scenarios don’t show an S9 to be a good investment currently, worst case scenario shows the S9 to be money down the drain.
It’s been over a month since I built those forecast and so far the total network hashrate is growing even faster than my original worst case scenario. That should tell you something.
Anyway, you can find the work a few pages back in this thread, check it out.

I dont know what hashrate chart are u using, the one im watching hashrate is falling

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart

[Logan4el]

Last week ROI on an S9 purchased on shitmain's website was slightly less than a year at .10/kWh. Today, it's over 400 days which essentially means never as difficulty is still rising and bitcoin is still falling. At this rate, it won't even pay to turn on an S9. I guess all the manufacturers pushed their prices high up so they could squeeze the last bit of profit from us miners before the crash.

I don't know how you're running the numbers, but they're wrong. First of all the ROI of an S9 is not anywhere near as long as 400 days, even with bitcoin doing so poorly recently, so that says something right there, that it can keep being profitable even in this environment. Second of all - assuming the difficulty keeps rising and the price of bitcoin keeps falling - yes, the S9 would not make a good investment. However the truth of the matter is that you can't see the future any more or less than the rest of us. You don't know if the price of bitcoin will keep falling, or if it will rise, or what the difficulty will do, etc. If you believe in bitcoin and believe it will make a comeback (which history tells us it will), then you don't base your numbers off today, but what you expect them to be in the future, especially with something as volatile as bitcoin.

This is wishful thinking.
BTC value cannot be forecast but you can make some pretty good predictions about total network hashrate and difficulty, I’ve shared mine on various occasions in this thread and even the best case scenarios don’t show an S9 to be a good investment currently, worst case scenario shows the S9 to be money down the drain.
It’s been over a month since I built those forecast and so far the total network hashrate is growing even faster than my original worst case scenario. That should tell you something.
Anyway, you can find the work a few pages back in this thread, check it out.

I dont know what hashrate chart are u using, the one im watching hashrate is falling

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart

 Difficulty retarget chart
Date (24h UTC)    Feb 7th, 01:49    -
Remaining    5 hours, 25 minutes (37 blk)    -
Change    +10.16%

Happy mining  

[Sitarow]

Here is a chart that you can use that will help.

I have updated it with Bitmains latest offering of the Antminer S9.


It seems that the network difficulty will be dropping. Perhaps due to BCH taking a little of the mining hardware out of the picture or older hardware being taken offline to to operating costs.

To clarify the chart I have is set to have an increase in difficulty at 1% every 18 days. THIS IS AN ESTIMATE. It may drop % a few times. However I have factored in the average increase over the last two years and even the average from the last year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing




https://i.imgur.com/v4xu4s1.png - OLD DIFFICULTY from December 6th 2017

New from January 26 2018.
https://i.imgur.com/2oBJ4ZD.png

[kobo_eth]

Here is a chart that you can use that will help.

I have updated it with Bitmains latest offering of the Antminer S9.


It seems that the network difficulty will be dropping. Perhaps due to BCH taking a little of the mining hardware out of the picture or older hardware being taken offline to to operating costs.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing

Amazing research man, great job! Can't wait to see the new calculations with the yet-to-be-released chips.
Anyway, if I am reading this right, ROI of 1 S9 will be 1 year (if the current BTC price remains unchanged) by November 2018.

It is more than highly unlikely to have the same BTC price by Nov, so I think that all S9 owners are pretty safe, right?

[Sitarow]

Here is a chart that you can use that will help.

I have updated it with Bitmains latest offering of the Antminer S9.


It seems that the network difficulty will be dropping. Perhaps due to BCH taking a little of the mining hardware out of the picture or older hardware being taken offline to to operating costs.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing

Amazing research man, great job! Can't wait to see the new calculations with the yet-to-be-released chips.
Anyway, if I am reading this right, ROI of 1 S9 will be 1 year (if the current BTC price remains unchanged) by November 2018.

It is more than highly unlikely to have the same BTC price by Nov, so I think that all S9 owners are pretty safe, right?

Safe is relative to how much ASIC hardware will hit the network by then. Additionally if your objective is to accumulate more BTC then it seems like a small risk at this point. I also factored the max difficulty before it would become unprofitable.

However it seems like a good offering.

Also if you liked the work then +1

[bl1nd]

Here is a chart that you can use that will help.

I have updated it with Bitmains latest offering of the Antminer S9.


It seems that the network difficulty will be dropping. Perhaps due to BCH taking a little of the mining hardware out of the picture or older hardware being taken offline to to operating costs.

To clarify the chart I have is set to have an increase in difficulty at 1% every 18 days. THIS IS AN ESTIMATE. It may drop % a few times. However I have factored in the average increase over the last two years and even the average from the last year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing




https://i.imgur.com/v4xu4s1.png

Great work, goes to show some naysayers here talking about Avg 15% increases... Some ppl are very naive to think big mining operations will run at a loss based on faith of a bitcoin price increase. Fact is mining will always be profitable, the only way a S9 becomes unprofitable is if something REALLY good is released in the next few months and they flood the market with it.

[Sitarow]

Here is a chart that you can use that will help.

I have updated it with Bitmains latest offering of the Antminer S9.


It seems that the network difficulty will be dropping. Perhaps due to BCH taking a little of the mining hardware out of the picture or older hardware being taken offline to to operating costs.

To clarify the chart I have is set to have an increase in difficulty at 1% every 18 days. THIS IS AN ESTIMATE. It may drop % a few times. However I have factored in the average increase over the last two years and even the average from the last year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing




https://i.imgur.com/v4xu4s1.png

Great work, goes to show some naysayers here talking about Avg 15% increases... Some ppl are very naive to think big mining operations will run at a loss based on faith of a bitcoin price increase. Fact is mining will always be profitable, the only way a S9 becomes unprofitable is if something REALLY good is released in the next few months and they flood the market with it.

I do apologize as I had posted the sheet ahead of completing the difficulty estimates. However it still may prove better to buy hardware as the difficulty will level out as adding new hardware to the network does subside.



Here is an example from the above linked document with the new offering from Bitmain.

^ UPDATE: Now with two difficulty dates. Presently set at 5% and 1% on the 6th month.

2ND UPDATE: I added a result at 15,000.00 USD to BTC Estimated Return with a Network difficulty increase of 10%

[rizla.plus]

A 1% increase every 18 days, you guys are kidding, right?

2 weeks ago it increased by 16.8%,
2 weeks before that it increased by 15.3%,
2 weeks before that it increased by 3.0%,
2 weeks before that it increased by 17.7%
2 weeks before that it increased by 18.1%

In the last year alone, difficulty has increased by 490% (last Feb it was 0.441T, now it’s 2.6T), and it is now increasing at a rate much faster than that.
So I don’t know how you guys justify the numbers above.

And what’s this about “difficulty will level out”? Why would you think that?
You are aware that in the almost 10 years of bitcoin history, THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED!
In fact, apart from the odd blip here and there, difficulty has ALWAYS increased and the rate at which it has been growing has ALWAYS been increasing as well.

Just look at the data:
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l

Saying it will magically start to flatten out is true wishful thinking in my opinion.
Anyway, keep buying those S9’s every time Bitmain releases a batch…

[Logan4el]

A 1% increase every 18 days, you guys are kidding, right?

2 weeks ago it increased by 16.8%,
2 weeks before that it increased by 15.3%,
2 weeks before that it increased by 3.0%,
2 weeks before that it increased by 17.7%
2 weeks before that it increased by 18.1%

In the last year alone, difficulty has increased by 490% (last Feb it was 0.441T, now it’s 2.6T), and it is now increasing at a rate much faster than that.
So I don’t know how you guys justify the numbers above.

And what’s this about “difficulty will level out”? Why would you think that?
You are aware that in the almost 10 years of bitcoin history, THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED!
In fact, apart from the odd blip here and there, difficulty has ALWAYS increased and the rate at which it has been growing has ALWAYS been increasing as well.

Just look at the data:
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l

Saying it will magically start to flatten out is true wishful thinking in my opinion.
Anyway, keep buying those S9’s every time Bitmain releases a batch…

Current difficulty:    2,874,674,234,416
January 26 difficulty:    2,603,077,300,218

+10.4337 %

I got your point from the very beginning. Unfortunately many cant.