Rally back on track

[calian]

Back up to $45 again. Let's take our time this time, alright everyone? Hopefully those who bought at $49 and those who sold at $33.30 have learned something too.

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[chriswilmer]

I feel like I just slept through an earthquake and came out unscathed... so glad I just held onto my bitcoins.

[evolve]

Did anyone just see that massive coin dump?

Is the crash back on?

[justusranvier]

Did anyone just see that massive coin dump?

I saw the price go from $45 to $36 and back to $42 in the time it took to refresh the page twice.

And back to $36 again.

[evolve]

and back down to 36.52 again...

I think this market is going to go back down hard, real soon.

[Chalkbot]

What the hell? Is it possible a sell order at 36 was trapped in the gox lag and just executed?

[bozak]

Did anyone just see that massive coin dump?

I saw the price go from $45 to $36 and back to $42 in the time it took to refresh the page twice.

And back to $36 again.

s

I'm seeing the same thing bouncing from $36 to $42 and back again.  Looks like Gox is still having delays/problems.  

[justusranvier]

Lag was down to under a minute, now back up above 4 minutes.

[nanopene]

Sold at 49, bought at 35
Love bubbles

[oddity]

Sold at 49, bought at 35
Love bubbles

how did you know to do that??

[Cluster2k]

Sold at 49, bought at 35
Love bubbles

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

[mccorvic]

Sold at 49, bought at 35
Love bubbles

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

This.

But I don't think we'll really know where the market is at for another 12 hours yet.  Things are bouncing all over. I do like how the drop to mid-thirties now qualifies as the bottom of the "crash" though.

[imanikin]

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

+1  Unless he was the member of the pump-and-dump team that set this up.

[just1nmc]

Sold at 49, bought at 35
Love bubbles

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

Sold at 47, bought at 36, and I completely agree. It was more stressful for me than gambling though; I don't know how day-traders do it.

[nanopene]

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

+1  Unless he was the member of the pump-and-dump team that set this up.

Not really. I have more hits than misses, because I don't analyze the market with stupid charts, as a behaviorist I analyze the people using those stupid charts
Also, there is a psychological resistance to round numbers, so before any number ending with zero, you will always see a resistance and a "correction". But that will be temporary.
All I knew was that 35 was below the actual equilibrium. I wasn't expecting it to jump right back, but I didn't care, because it was still under the equilibrium, and I was content thinking about a 15% to 30% profit margin.

This market is robust now, I don't think it will be back to sub 20 values, those days are over.
I don't get stressed out at all. I place my bets ahead of time, and I sit and wait.

[cbeast]

The previous attempts to pump and dump failed because bitcoiners are getting used to the volatility. I knew this one was coming and that it would be brief. The setup for the multiple dumps was complex. Now we are sitting at a more reasonable correction price until the next rally. The next PnD will probably require a major FUD campaign. Buckle up, there will be another big rally and another correction based on current developments, and then another and another. We knew this would happen since 2011.

[randrace]

Sold at 47, bought at 36, and I completely agree. It was more stressful for me than gambling though; I don't know how day-traders do it.

I bought at 36 and started trying to sell after watching the 49 to 47 slide. As the market order executed, it was a bit over 45. For those using bitfloor, the selling process is slow, and there may be a 10min. period where you have no indication that your order was placed or executed. That was my experience, anyhow.

[kingcrimson]

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

+1  Unless he was the member of the pump-and-dump team that set this up.

Not really. I have more hits than misses, because I don't analyze the market with stupid charts, as a behaviorist I analyze the people using those stupid charts
Also, there is a psychological resistance to round numbers, so before any number ending with zero, you will always see a resistance and a "correction". But that will be temporary.
All I knew was that 35 was below the actual equilibrium. I wasn't expecting it to jump right back, but I didn't care, because it was still under the equilibrium, and I was content thinking about a 15% to 30% profit margin.

This market is robust now, I don't think it will be back to sub 20 values, those days are over.
I don't get stressed out at all. I place my bets ahead of time, and I sit and wait.

That is undeniably smart. but didn't we blow past 30/40 pretty easily? You sold at pretty much the exact top and bottom of the swing, which seems a lot of luck went into as well as 'take it or leave it' confidence

[TooCasual]

The previous attempts to pump and dump failed because bitcoiners are getting used to the volatility. I knew this one was coming and that it would be brief. The setup for the multiple dumps was complex. Now we are sitting at a more reasonable correction price until the next rally. The next PnD will probably require a major FUD campaign. Buckle up, there will be another big rally and another correction based on current developments, and then another and another. We knew this would happen since 2011.

+1 Yup.  Just cause bears poop in the woods doesn't mean the price will dive too (not less than $34 for sure). (lol hey evolve?)

TC

[nanopene]

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

+1  Unless he was the member of the pump-and-dump team that set this up.

Not really. I have more hits than misses, because I don't analyze the market with stupid charts, as a behaviorist I analyze the people using those stupid charts
Also, there is a psychological resistance to round numbers, so before any number ending with zero, you will always see a resistance and a "correction". But that will be temporary.
All I knew was that 35 was below the actual equilibrium. I wasn't expecting it to jump right back, but I didn't care, because it was still under the equilibrium, and I was content thinking about a 15% to 30% profit margin.

This market is robust now, I don't think it will be back to sub 20 values, those days are over.
I don't get stressed out at all. I place my bets ahead of time, and I sit and wait.

That is undeniably smart. but didn't we blow past 30/40 pretty easily? You sold at pretty much the exact top and bottom of the swing, which seems a lot of luck went into as well as 'take it or leave it' confidence

This is what happened, I placed a small ask around 22. I already felt that 30 was a big psychological resistance, considering that at that time it was historically the highest price ever. I had originally all my asks placed at 30.
But once I sold at 22, I cancelled the ask at 30 of my remaining BTCs and waited.
It was obvious to me that if the barrier of 30 was broken, it would rally up. That's how we are as humans when we become too optimistic about something... (and especially someone). That 30 was like the lid of a pressurized cooker, a lot of repressed dreams was being held there. A crack would definitely make it overflow it.
After pondering about it, I finally I bought BTCs back at 29.5 and waited patiently to go over 30 (even when it was falling, I believe it touched 28 again, right? I missed that opportunity to bid lower, anyways, I knew it didn't matter because I was confident that it would pass 30)

I can't predict exact numbers, but I can predict overall trends in mid term, and that is enough for me.

I have several rules of thumb:
To manage unrealistic expectation: whatever I hope, divide it by two.
For project planning: make an accurate estimation of how much time and money will cost for a project, and then multiply them by two. That will save you a lot of headaches, and as you probably will finish earlier your customer will be even happier... but if shit happens, you are already covered and will finish on time.

Considering the acceleration I was hoping to get to 100, so my left brain kicked in, applied my heuristics and considered that the number 50 was a more likely number, but knowing that we have naturally a psychological resistance to round numbers, I placed my ask order at 49.
And placed an order for 35 when it was falling again, to me it was obvious that the equilibrium would be around 40... OR at least bounce back at 40 before falling further.
This is the type of heuristics I apply for short/mid-term...
For long term I consider other things.

PS: We have a love/hate relationship with round numbers. Because we love them, we fear them.

[1Pakis]

How many bitcoins did you sell at 49 and bought back at 35?
if you did it with 0.1 it's easy.
if you did it with 1000 it gets more difficult.

[nanopene]

How many bitcoins did you sell at 49 and bought back at 35?
if you did it with 0.1 it's easy.
if you did it with 1000 it gets more difficult.

I have reserved 10%-20% of my total funds for short/mid term speculation.
The rest are sitting there for the long game.

[molecular]

Sold at 49, bought at 35
Love bubbles

how did you know to do that??

It's the same as asking gamblers exiting a casino about whether they won.  Those that did will proclaim loudly how much money they made.  Those that lost (the majority of punters) remain silent.  He didn't know any more than a roulette player knows the ball will land on black next.

This.

But I don't think we'll really know where the market is at for another 12 hours yet.  Things are bouncing all over. I do like how the drop to mid-thirties now qualifies as the bottom of the "crash" though.

Jep, the all time high is now support.

[calian]

Sometimes it seems to require superhuman strength to resist taking so much as a satoshi of profit but here we are again pushing up under $48. Best to log off and check back in a few years I suppose...

[blackreplica]

Sometimes it seems to require superhuman strength to resist taking so much as a satoshi of profit but here we are again pushing up under $48. Best to log off and check back in a few years I suppose...

Wholly agreed but it just so much easier said than done. I have a significant holding of bitcoin and I'm prepared to hold it at least 5-10 years or about 1000USD per BTC and yet i've got bitcoinity charts plastered on my browser tab 24/7