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Author Topic: Bumping into scarcity: does this graphic explain it well?  (Read 2072 times)
coastermonger (OP)
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March 08, 2013, 04:48:03 AM
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March 08, 2013, 04:58:31 AM
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As long as they have utility, scarcity will continue driving it up, despite the occasional violent sell-off.
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March 08, 2013, 08:49:36 AM
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If people is starting using Bitcoins for “real” transactions, as I think they are, than demand will keep growing.

Regards, Inge
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March 08, 2013, 04:25:54 PM
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If people is starting using Bitcoins for “real” transactions, as I think they are, than demand will keep growing.

Exactly.


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March 08, 2013, 05:40:52 PM
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OP, that sounds about right to me.

Trace, nice collection of data.
Didn't know market cap of Mastercard and Visa were so big compared to AAPL (thought AAPL would be an order of magnitude higher).
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March 08, 2013, 06:23:53 PM
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I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
Since the mining algotithm is energy bound i expect future hardware to have less spectacular effects on the price.
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March 09, 2013, 05:20:17 PM
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I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
What revolution in hardware in 2011 are you talking about? GPU mining kicked off in summer 2010.

They're there, in their room.
Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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March 09, 2013, 06:34:59 PM
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I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
What revolution in hardware in 2011 are you talking about? GPU mining kicked off in summer 2010.

But it didn't gain tracking untill early 2011.
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March 09, 2013, 06:41:11 PM
 #9

I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
What revolution in hardware in 2011 are you talking about? GPU mining kicked off in summer 2010.

But it didn't gain tracking untill early 2011.


OPenCL 1.0 was released Oct 1 2010 and within 2 weeks someone decided to buy 500k bitcoins.

niko
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March 09, 2013, 06:54:09 PM
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I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
What revolution in hardware in 2011 are you talking about? GPU mining kicked off in summer 2010.

But it didn't gain tracking untill early 2011.


OPenCL 1.0 was released Oct 1 2010 and within 2 weeks someone decided to buy 500k bitcoins.
GPU mining started in July 2010:


As for your "someone bought 500k coins" -
The volume over these couple of days may have been 500k coins, worth approximately $35k. What is the point you are trying to make?  Just 2 weeks after Jupiter and Mars were in opposition two years ago, someone dumped $144k. Clearly, this is correlated.

They're there, in their room.
Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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March 09, 2013, 07:26:11 PM
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I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
What revolution in hardware in 2011 are you talking about? GPU mining kicked off in summer 2010.

But it didn't gain tracking untill early 2011.


OPenCL 1.0 was released Oct 1 2010 and within 2 weeks someone decided to buy 500k bitcoins.
GPU mining started in July 2010:


As for your "someone bought 500k coins" -
The volume over these couple of days may have been 500k coins, worth approximately $35k. What is the point you are trying to make?  Just 2 weeks after Jupiter and Mars were in opposition two years ago, someone dumped $144k. Clearly, this is correlated.

OpenCL 1.0 is related to GPU mining which is related to bitcoins. Planets of course having nothing to do with bitcoins, but that was never my suggestion.

Avalon was confirmed to be real: the price goes parabolic. OpenCL 1.0 is released giving average joe the ability to mine with his GPUs, a large buy comes in days after. I guess I could fire up paint.exe and draw you a picture but I'll leave it to your interplanetary imagination for now.

mobodick
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March 09, 2013, 08:14:10 PM
 #12

I think this cannot be complete.
In both selloff events (the 2011 one and the recent one) the driving force was a revolution in mining hardware.
THIS is what drives the price up but it is missing from the picture.
What revolution in hardware in 2011 are you talking about? GPU mining kicked off in summer 2010.

But it didn't gain tracking untill early 2011.


OPenCL 1.0 was released Oct 1 2010 and within 2 weeks someone decided to buy 500k bitcoins.
GPU mining started in July 2010:


Sure, there were people mining with GPUs in 2010, but how many ?
You shouldn't look at a log graph because mining is a linear process.
So if you look at the graph in the correct context you can clearly see that the gpu tide started to boom in the first part of 2011.
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March 12, 2013, 10:09:23 PM
 #13

Hopefully the day will come when a BTC "price" chart will not exist as all other currencies will be gone. So 1BTC==1BTC and everthing is priced in BTC. I suppose you could price it in gold, but that would yield no information about BTC value, only gold value.

mobodick
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March 12, 2013, 10:26:40 PM
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Hopefully the day will come when a BTC "price" chart will not exist as all other currencies will be gone. So 1BTC==1BTC and everthing is priced in BTC. I suppose you could price it in gold, but that would yield no information about BTC value, only gold value.

And how would you decide what you can buy for this 1BTC==1BTC?
Huh? Huh?
yucca
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March 12, 2013, 10:36:53 PM
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Hopefully the day will come when a BTC "price" chart will not exist as all other currencies will be gone. So 1BTC==1BTC and everthing is priced in BTC. I suppose you could price it in gold, but that would yield no information about BTC value, only gold value.

And how would you decide what you can buy for this 1BTC==1BTC?
Huh? Huh?


The free market would decide, everything would be priced in BTC. I'm thinking quite a time in the future here (all going well).

notme
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March 13, 2013, 06:05:33 AM
 #16

OP, that sounds about right to me.

Trace, nice collection of data.
Didn't know market cap of Mastercard and Visa were so big compared to AAPL (thought AAPL would be an order of magnitude higher).

Elevator going down:

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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