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mobodick
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March 08, 2013, 03:29:25 PM |
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I buy a krugerrand for $1600. I have a piece of yellowish shiny metal.
Market price of krugerrands falls to $1400. I do nothing; I still have a piece of yellowish shiny metal.
I buy one BTC for $40. I have one BTC.
Market price of BTC falls to $20 per BTC. I do nothing; I still have one BTC.
Market price in terms of fiat bankster paper does matter to a point, but it is not the be all and end all. At last year's Bitcoin conference, investment guru Charles Vollum reminded us in the audience not to be heavily focused on fiat price, but the whole picture.
While i agree that the large picture is important, we just cannot simply remove fiat as the defacto reference for bitcoins value. This cannot change unless bitcoin becomes bigger than the fiats it is referenced against. And in any case, you cannot completely divorce these money systems when they act in our global economy. The only situation you could consider bitcoin as not relating to other value representations is to have the bitcoin economy have nothing to do with them. |
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RodeoX
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Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
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March 08, 2013, 03:32:20 PM |
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I don't think so. Bitcoins strengths are in it's utility. That is not harmed by unbridled amateur speculation.
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nobbynobbynoob
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March 08, 2013, 07:12:49 PM |
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While i agree that the large picture is important, we just cannot simply remove fiat as the defacto reference for bitcoins value. I kinda half agree. But economists have been known to use a "Big Mac" index - Bitcoiners could adopt a pizza index to measure value. 2010: BTC5k per pizza -> BTC1 = 0,0002 pizzas Now: BTC0,4 per pizza (say) -> BTC1 = 2,5 pizzas Tomorrow: ? And so on.  |
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benjamindees
Legendary
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Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
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March 10, 2013, 03:14:34 AM |
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There are several ways the current situation could end up being harmful to Bitcoin. But, in general, no there is little possibility of this bubble being as severe, and as destructive, as the last.
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Civil Liberty Through Complex Mathematics
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mobodick
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March 11, 2013, 12:37:37 AM |
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While i agree that the large picture is important, we just cannot simply remove fiat as the defacto reference for bitcoins value. I kinda half agree. But economists have been known to use a "Big Mac" index - Bitcoiners could adopt a pizza index to measure value. 2010: BTC5k per pizza -> BTC1 = 0,0002 pizzas Now: BTC0,4 per pizza (say) -> BTC1 = 2,5 pizzas Tomorrow: ? And so on. Comparing money to food seems pretty reasonable. I just think it should be something more general, like bread. |
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porcupine87
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March 12, 2013, 04:52:36 PM |
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If it's a bubble depends, whether Bitcoin can satisfy the expectations of the buyers. McDonalds, Walmart or Amazon accepts Bitcoin in the future? -> not a bubble. New secure issues appear or other issues (like max block size) get not solved? -> bubble.
Nobody can't say for sure, whether it is a bubble (because of that we have the discussion), because noone can predict the future for sure. "Predicting" the past is much easier. No matter what will happen it will seem for quite everybody look plausible ("Donkey! It was clear, everybody knew it!"). Like other economic crashes like the dotcom-bubble.
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"Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work - whereas economics represents how it actually does work." Freakonomics
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Timbert33
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Activity: 47
Merit: 0
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March 13, 2013, 03:57:40 AM |
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Sorry but when I See the price of BTC rise from around $10 to $50 in a short period of time, accombied by the panic buying we've been seeing for a few weeks I get nervous, there has to be a pullback... This is sheer madness, I've practically cashed out completely.
BTC could end up $100 in a few days and I would have 'lost' a lot of money but I feel safe where I'm standing right now. Made a real nice profit either way.
Now, imagine if the Silk Road went down or was offline for a few months... What do you think would happen to the price of BTC?
Silk Road was down for almost a month late last year. The effect on Bitcoin was non-existent Also other sites would come about. This is a non-issue, and the bitcoin economy is much bigger than SR these days. These last two posts are just flat out wrong... 1) When exactly was it down for a month? Hint: It wasn't. 2) At THIS point there is nothing that people purchase with btc that comes close to the millions of dollars per month spent on SR for actual goods. Unless you include the SPECULATION as something driving the btc economy, SR is pretty much the whole thing. But by all means, if you can find another business that has even 1/20th the amount of money spent on it in btc ON ACTUAL GOODS AND SERVICES, please point it out. |
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Entropy-uc
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March 13, 2013, 05:48:09 AM |
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Sorry but when I See the price of BTC rise from around $10 to $50 in a short period of time, accombied by the panic buying we've been seeing for a few weeks I get nervous, there has to be a pullback... This is sheer madness, I've practically cashed out completely.
BTC could end up $100 in a few days and I would have 'lost' a lot of money but I feel safe where I'm standing right now. Made a real nice profit either way.
Now, imagine if the Silk Road went down or was offline for a few months... What do you think would happen to the price of BTC?
Silk Road was down for almost a month late last year. The effect on Bitcoin was non-existent Also other sites would come about. This is a non-issue, and the bitcoin economy is much bigger than SR these days. These last two posts are just flat out wrong... 1) When exactly was it down for a month? Hint: It wasn't. 2) At THIS point there is nothing that people purchase with btc that comes close to the millions of dollars per month spent on SR for actual goods. Unless you include the SPECULATION as something driving the btc economy, SR is pretty much the whole thing. But by all means, if you can find another business that has even 1/20th the amount of money spent on it in btc ON ACTUAL GOODS AND SERVICES, please point it out. Throughout November and December it was impossible to log into SR for 90% of the time. Check the SR forum history for yourself and you'll find dozens of apologies for DPR for the issues. I was monitoring it closely out of concern for the potential impact on BTC price. Now show your data that proves otherwise champ. |
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yucca
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March 13, 2013, 05:39:56 PM |
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The fact that BTC has suffered one "crash" in 2011 and recovered back to full heath is a very good indication that BTC will not be dying anytime soon (unless global EMPs happen).
We may see exponential rises and fast drops down to the support. Support seems to be rising linearly at the moment ~$20 is rock solid support IMHO.
This spunky eager behaviour, and getting up to run again after falling on its face (even when volume was low) is a sign of very good health.
BTC behaviour after the "crash" of 2011 makes it all the more attractive to me when considering it as an investment. Had that crash not happened it would not be as attractive to me.
To know a system it is good to see it's "impulse response" we have witnessed this and its response was healthy.
The current "Bubble" will only be harmful to those whose stop losses kick in on the next correction.
I'm suprised there are no big cats doing large sell orders to invoke mini avalanche and then buying up the bottom. If they are and this is explaining current intraday volatility then that is a phenomenal display of health from BTC.
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