Will you wait for stability to buy in?

[mccorvic]

Things that cannot go on, will not go on. This extreme rise in price will end sometime; the indicators will cool off in some form of price correction. I will be ready.

While true, it's also been true since December. 

[1714498034]

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[conspirosphere.tk]

Things that cannot go on, will not go on.

Yes, but the question is if the price will stabilize somewhere or we will move from panic buying to panic selling in a flash (e.g. crash).
I suspect the second, if this bull-run is mostly speculators-fueled.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I have a feeling that the boom is coming from both professional investors starting to look into bitcoin after it has gained credibility and small-timers looking to get quick rich while hardly knowing anything about bitcoin or monetary policy. 
The last are weak hands, the prior group is getting new loads of money into the bitcoin system that will probably stay there for a long time.

[zkay]

It won't go up forever like this. In terms of risk/reward, it is always better to get in at a low assuming that BTC will always go up in the near future. Currently, all indicators are red hot, so if you have balls you could wait a little longer before stepping in. Remember, sellers have the same fear, but the other way around (should I sell now or will the price increase?).

Things that cannot go on, will not go on. This extreme rise in price will end sometime; the indicators will cool off in some form of price correction. I will be ready.

And this is my fear. I am ready to dive in, but just don't want to be the guy that bought in at $49 this last time or $32 in 2011. Yes, bitcoin is going up in the future, but wouldn't we all like to make money between now and then?

[mccorvic]

It won't go up forever like this. In terms of risk/reward, it is always better to get in at a low assuming that BTC will always go up in the near future. Currently, all indicators are red hot, so if you have balls you could wait a little longer before stepping in. Remember, sellers have the same fear, but the other way around (should I sell now or will the price increase?).

Things that cannot go on, will not go on. This extreme rise in price will end sometime; the indicators will cool off in some form of price correction. I will be ready.

And this is my fear. I am ready to dive in, but just don't want to be the guy that bought in at $49 this last time or $32 in 2011. Yes, bitcoin is going up in the future, but wouldn't we all like to make money between now and then?

I'm buying and holding/spending and making money. The only way you lose if you try to play the day trader game.

[zkay]

It won't go up forever like this. In terms of risk/reward, it is always better to get in at a low assuming that BTC will always go up in the near future. Currently, all indicators are red hot, so if you have balls you could wait a little longer before stepping in. Remember, sellers have the same fear, but the other way around (should I sell now or will the price increase?).

Things that cannot go on, will not go on. This extreme rise in price will end sometime; the indicators will cool off in some form of price correction. I will be ready.

And this is my fear. I am ready to dive in, but just don't want to be the guy that bought in at $49 this last time or $32 in 2011. Yes, bitcoin is going up in the future, but wouldn't we all like to make money between now and then?

I'm buying and holding/spending and making money. The only way you lose if you try to play the day trader game.

I'm simply searching for the best value. I want to hold bitcoin, there is no question there. The question is at what price do I want to try and acquire them.

If I buy at $48 and it then crashes to $24 (purely hypothetical), I've exhausted what dry powder I had buying coins at twice the price I could have paid.

I realize this is simply the game we're playing and an investment in BTC is risky in itself, but I'm trying to at least make it a calculated risk by attempting to (admittedly, feebly) gauge sentiment through a thread like this.

I rather like the idea of waiting unti Sunday/Monday to see if the gains hold or collapse, then thinking about investing some more.

Keep in mind, my strategy is the way it is because I am way down the food chain economically from a lot of you guys. At the current market price I could afford to buy 2 btc / month to hold. If I can change that to 4 btc by being very careful of when I purchase, this is obviously much better. yes?

[ehoffman]

I think it's better to just hold.  You see, I do have 40BTC and started hypothesizing on the BTC prices, and started to do some daytrading.  I only ended up loosing 8~10 BTC in the process.  You see, you CANNOT predict BTC prices.  At a moment, you think it will go down, you sell, and it continue to raise.  You then don't want to lose your investment, you buy back, and it goes down.  Repeat cycle a few times and you lose a portion of your investment each time.  It's totally chaotic.

You see, today Gox went up and came back down.  I missed an opportunity.  But now it's going up again, and I sold at 46.75.  It's now slowly rising since and touching the 48 mark.  What do I do?  Wait (it will surely go back down)?  What if that's a new low point, and goes for the sky?  Do I buy at loss?  I only hope to recover those lost BTC somehow, so I continue doing it, but you see, the only thing I ended up getting is more gray hairs...  And less BTC in my pocket.  To me it can be as worse as gambling for other persons.  It IS gambling...

[bigbtc]

I think it's better to just hold.  You see, I do have 40BTC and started hypothesizing on the BTC prices, and started to do some daytrading.  I only ended up loosing 8~10 BTC in the process.  You see, you CANNOT predict BTC prices.  At a moment, you think it will go down, you sell, and it continue to raise.  You then don't want to lose your investment, you buy back, and it goes down.  Repeat cycle a few times and you lose a portion of your investment each time.  It's totally chaotic.

You see, today Gox went up and came back down.  I missed an opportunity.  But now it's going up again, and I sold at 46.75.  It's now slowly rising since and touching the 48 mark.  What do I do?  Wait (it will surely go back down)?  What if that's a new low point, and goes for the sky?  Do I buy at loss?  I only hope to recover those lost BTC somehow, so I continue doing it, but you see, the only thing I ended up getting is more gray hairs...  And less BTC in my pocket.  To me it can be as worse as gambling for other persons.  It IS gambling...

Lol. You're doing it totally wrong.

Stop.

[ehoffman]

Lol. You're doing it totally wrong.

Stop.

I know    But as said, it's too chaotic, and I'm just too anger to make quick BTC 

[zkay]

I think it's better to just hold.  You see, I do have 40BTC and started hypothesizing on the BTC prices, and started to do some daytrading.  I only ended up loosing 8~10 BTC in the process.  You see, you CANNOT predict BTC prices.  At a moment, you think it will go down, you sell, and it continue to raise.  You then don't want to lose your investment, you buy back, and it goes down.  Repeat cycle a few times and you lose a portion of your investment each time.  It's totally chaotic.

You see, today Gox went up and came back down.  I missed an opportunity.  But now it's going up again, and I sold at 46.75.  It's now slowly rising since and touching the 48 mark.  What do I do?  Wait (it will surely go back down)?  What if that's a new low point, and goes for the sky?  Do I buy at loss?  I only hope to recover those lost BTC somehow, so I continue doing it, but you see, the only thing I ended up getting is more gray hairs...  And less BTC in my pocket.  To me it can be as worse as gambling for other persons.  It IS gambling...

There seems to be some consensus that this coming monday, 3/11/13, is a turning point. With new money coming in, we will either get a massive run up, or a decline from people holding trying to sell to the new buyers. Right now we are in limbo; no one has any way of knowing what will happen before then.

Will speculators continue to buy until Sunday night, in order to have more BTC on hand to sell to the new buyers on Monday? Or will some piece of news or a rumor or a general emotion take hold over enough holders and they'll sell before the price falls Monday?

Will enough new money and demand show up on Monday to override any sell off that may occur? At what point does the tide turn?

Many questions, few answers. As time goes on, the answers will either reveal themselves or at least become less vague. This is my rationale behind waiting until at least Sunday night before buying in. Buying now, to me, is more emotional than based in reason. Emotional in that there is simply hope that enough new buy orders will show up monday to keep the price where it is or drive it up. Waiting for this to confirm itself, or at least become more likely, seems more reasoned to me.

And if it does go up a few dollars and the gains either hold or continue Monday? I've only lost out on a few dollars per coin, which won't amount to much if the price continues up.

[zkay]

I should add that I do have buy orders in above $50, with the thinking that if it breaks $50, it will continue up at a rapid pace.

[jonitas]

I sold some bitcoins at $44, I got my initial investment out of it. So no need to feel bad if the price goes up or down, now it's all pure profit. When the bubble pops I'll probably get in again at some point.

[Dargo]

sold at 45 buying in if we break 50 or 30

+1

I sold at 43$

Excellent strategy, covered both ways! I think I will try to stick to this too, but I might move the low end up to $33 just because that was the low the other day.

As far as the long haul investment goes, I am right there with all of you! I am simply trying to expand my USD holdings in order to then turn around and turn them into BTC.

Thank you for the thoughtful replies, everyone.

Every penny acquired in this bull run will get straight back into BTC between here and $20 

And why not? Even with a crash of that magnitude, it has performed great!

Though if I get over a certain amount, I intend to either buy a firearm or a refridgerator, not quite sure which yet.

Refrigerator for your beer if it goes up, and firearm if it tanks?

Refrigerator ---> encase your offline wallet in solid block of ice, hide in freezer (added bonus: protected in case of fire, sort of).

Firearm ---> you will C-I-L-L anyone who tries to take your wallet (alluding to old SNL skit here - google "C-I-L-L my landlord" if not familiar).

[zkay]

sold at 45 buying in if we break 50 or 30

+1

I sold at 43$

Excellent strategy, covered both ways! I think I will try to stick to this too, but I might move the low end up to $33 just because that was the low the other day.

As far as the long haul investment goes, I am right there with all of you! I am simply trying to expand my USD holdings in order to then turn around and turn them into BTC.

Thank you for the thoughtful replies, everyone.

Every penny acquired in this bull run will get straight back into BTC between here and $20 

And why not? Even with a crash of that magnitude, it has performed great!

Though if I get over a certain amount, I intend to either buy a firearm or a refridgerator, not quite sure which yet.

Refrigerator for your beer if it goes up, and firearm if it tanks?

Refrigerator ---> encase your offline wallet in solid block of ice, hide in freezer (added bonus: protected in case of fire, sort of).

Firearm ---> you will C-I-L-L anyone who tries to take your wallet (alluding to old SNL skit here - google "C-I-L-L my landlord" if not familiar).

Haha, nice! I like it! From way back.

Here's the link for anyone interested: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=04c_1264707528

And yes, I just happen to need both a fridge and a firearm. An ice storm took out my fridge, and I've just wanted to get a gun for a long time.

[KTE]

My buys in 2013

Jan 24th @ €14.2 - http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxEUR#rg60zczsg2013-01-24zeg2013-01-26ztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Feb 13th @ €18.8 - http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxEUR#rg60zczsg2013-02-13zeg2013-02-14ztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Mar 6th @ €36.6 - http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxEUR#rg60zczsg2013-03-06zeg2013-03-07ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

See the pattern? I didn't flinch at any point, no sells. Just have a strategy and follow it. Have discipline, don't think you can predict the future, and don't rely on predictions on some wacky forum on the net either.

[EnergyVampire]

I think it's better to just hold.  You see, I do have 40BTC and started hypothesizing on the BTC prices, and started to do some daytrading.  I only ended up loosing 8~10 BTC in the process.  You see, you CANNOT predict BTC prices.  At a moment, you think it will go down, you sell, and it continue to raise.  You then don't want to lose your investment, you buy back, and it goes down.  Repeat cycle a few times and you lose a portion of your investment each time.  It's totally chaotic.

You see, today Gox went up and came back down.  I missed an opportunity.  But now it's going up again, and I sold at 46.75.  It's now slowly rising since and touching the 48 mark.  What do I do?  Wait (it will surely go back down)?  What if that's a new low point, and goes for the sky?  Do I buy at loss?  I only hope to recover those lost BTC somehow, so I continue doing it, but you see, the only thing I ended up getting is more gray hairs...  And less BTC in my pocket.  To me it can be as worse as gambling for other persons.  It IS gambling...

Lol. You're doing it totally wrong.

Stop.

LMAO!!! This is the funniest post I've read on this forum in at least 6 months. Good stuff mates +1

[CurbsideProphet]

Keep in mind, my strategy is the way it is because I am way down the food chain economically from a lot of you guys. At the current market price I could afford to buy 2 btc / month to hold. If I can change that to 4 btc by being very careful of when I purchase, this is obviously much better. yes?

Dollar cost average. 

[kingcrimson]

I think it's better to just hold.  You see, I do have 40BTC and started hypothesizing on the BTC prices, and started to do some daytrading.  I only ended up loosing 8~10 BTC in the process.  You see, you CANNOT predict BTC prices.  At a moment, you think it will go down, you sell, and it continue to raise.  You then don't want to lose your investment, you buy back, and it goes down.  Repeat cycle a few times and you lose a portion of your investment each time.  It's totally chaotic.

You see, today Gox went up and came back down.  I missed an opportunity.  But now it's going up again, and I sold at 46.75.  It's now slowly rising since and touching the 48 mark.  What do I do?  Wait (it will surely go back down)?  What if that's a new low point, and goes for the sky?  Do I buy at loss?  I only hope to recover those lost BTC somehow, so I continue doing it, but you see, the only thing I ended up getting is more gray hairs...  And less BTC in my pocket.  To me it can be as worse as gambling for other persons.  It IS gambling...

It is all gambling and luck, anyone who says different just got lucky

[Notanon]

I might wait to see if it stabilises so I can buy a couple and chuck them straight into a pyramining account.

[Ichthyo]

I think it's better to just hold.  You see, I do have 40BTC and started hypothesizing on the BTC prices, and started to do some daytrading.  I only ended up loosing 8~10 BTC in the process.  You see, you CANNOT predict BTC prices.  At a moment, you think it will go down, you sell, and it continue to raise.  You then don't want to lose your investment, you buy back, and it goes down.  Repeat cycle a few times and you lose a portion of your investment each time.  It's totally chaotic.

If you want to do daytrading, you need some money reserve and you need to be willing to take some losses, without getting nervous and jumping ship. You need to stay calm, place your bet and see it work out or not. Otherwise you will just burn money with day trading.

If you only want to do some moderate trading, better go explicitly for a very simple strategy, like e.g. market following (e.g. go all in and all out whenever EMA 13 and EMA 21 cross). But don't jump around nervously and dont try to anticipate what's right behind the next corner.

If you want a still more conservative strategy, buy in cost averaging and just hold.