a post from:
https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/61xp3f/reminder_monero_can_fall_70_or_more_and_thats_ok/Before I begin, I should say that I don't fit a traditional "trader" profile. As an investment, I really only buy-and-hold Monero as a store of wealth, particularly as a hedge against global calamity. Eg: if the Western world goes belly up, and as long as there is still electricity and things haven't devolved into Mad Max, then my Bitcoin and Monero investments will probably be ok.
That said, I do pay close attention to the price. But not for the usual reasons like trading. I'm not gritting my teeth at every drop, wondering if I should move my XMR to cash. The fact is, I sort of waved goodbye to the dollars I exchanged into crypto. If I lose it all (for example, if SHA-3 gets cracked tomorrow) I'm ok with that, and on some level I won't even be surprised. Cryptographic standards are notorious for getting broken. In 1993 SHA-1 was published. Ten years later it was broken. In 2001 SHA-2 was published. It has already showed vulnerabilities this year. Yes, Monero and Bitcoin possess a certain degree of antifragility, but really it's all pretty tenuous. In a nutshell, I really only pay pretty close attention to the price because I enjoy the wild story of Monero. At the end of the day, it's still just fascinating beautiful complex speculative magical internet money. And I love that.
Anyways, I wanted to write a small post here to encourage new fans not to bail on this wonderful currency just because the price drops. As in, the price dropping by 70%. What was the latest new high we experienced earlier this month? $25/xmr? It could very well drop to $7 in 2017.
I say this because it has done that in the past. I was there during the last big drop, and it was pretty rough. In August of 2016 Monero was accepted on Alphabay, the first coin besides Bitcoin on the DNM. It shot up from $2.50 to $15 in under two weeks. That's 600% gains in 13 days. Boom:
https://i.imgur.com/cKW9Sdu.pngNot gonna lie, it was awesome. IRC was a total party. A whole lot of people there, myself included, couldn't believe what we were seeing on Poloniex, night after night. We had believed this coin would eventually get the recognition it deserved, but it was still pretty nuts to watch when it happened. But once the exuberance died down, a lot of us began to calculate our winnings more seriously, and began to assume that $15/xmr was the new normal. After all, it had happened so easily. Little did we know how long and painful the drawdown would be over the next few months. Because it fell, week after week, for two months straight:
https://i.imgur.com/2YndEZZ.pngNot only did it fall for a long time, but it fell really far in value too. Our coins, once worth a glorious $15, were now worth a pathetic $4.38. A drop of over 70%. Oof.
But then, without much noise, Monero did bottom. And then the price (really, the demand for Monero) slowly began to rise again, and another two months later it recrossed that $15 ATH of August. Two months down, two months back up. I suppose there are a few people who simply got lucky and sold at the tops and bought at the bottoms, but most of us simply held. I certainly did, and have no regrets for doing so. Active trading, ie: trying to time the markets, is largely a game of chance that rewards few, burns more, and wastes the time and energy of everybody else. So really, buying and hodling is the healthiest option that most of us have.
My real purpose in writing this post is to help people realize how brutal cryptocurrency can be. It's like the 2008 financial crisis (where stocks fell 60-70%) every year in here.
In closing, take a moment to think about how much cash (in dollars or euros, etc) you have locked up in Monero right now. All of it. Your cold storage and hot wallet and MyMonero and on the exchanges. All of it - converted to dollars. Got it?
Use a calculator and multiply that number by 0.3 (reducing it by 70%)
Now take a deep breath, look at that hypothetical balance, and ask yourself one simple question: Would you be able to handle that loss without selling? Could you still sleep at night? Would you still be able to afford your rent or mortgage payment throughout the year? If not, you probably have too much money locked up in Monero. Yes, this cryptocurrency is awesome, but it's not worth your health or sanity. So take a moment to think what amount would be more healthy. Then go sell a little XMR on Polo to get to the point where you could handle a 70% drawdown.
Then move it into a paper wallet and never sell for years and years. Come back to /r/xmrtrader and /r/monero and have the fun this community is known for. Because despite that four month period of ugliness in 2016, the price eventually soared and hit new highs, and here we stand today around $18. And it'll probably fall again tomorrow. But I'm OK with that. This is the most interesting cryptocurrency on earth, backed by some of the most talented dudes I've ever had the chance of interacting with. As long as these fundamentals stay great (and I think they will), we have a bright future ahead of us.
