What will happen after mining ends?

[2double0]

Guys, a question arose in my mind so I am here with it.
Just think, when 21 MN bitcoins get mined completely and miners won't get any more rewards except fee, will they still do the mining?
If they won't, mining will stop. How will blockchain move the transactions ahead?
How will the network run? Will we see a dump when it ends or a new rise in the value?
My purpose to ask this is to know the possibilities bitcoin will face in the future after this happens, and I think this will not take much longer, not more than 1 and half year.

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[BigBoom3599]

If everyone stops mining the blockchain will stop, transactions won't confirm and no more blocks will be generated, however the chance of that happening is really small. I think once mining becomes inprofitable for miner (due to lowered block reward or other things) they will stop mining, the consequence of that is of course that the difficulty will lower dramatically so it will be profitable again, in the end it will always be profitable for someone (probably the ones with cheap electricity or cheap equipment).

[2double0]

If everyone stops mining the blockchain will stop, transactions won't confirm and no more blocks will be generated, however the chance of that happening is really small. I think once mining becomes inprofitable for miner (due to lowered block reward or other things) they will stop mining, the consequence of that is of course that the difficulty will lower dramatically so it will be profitable again, in the end it will always be profitable for someone (probably the ones with cheap electricity or cheap equipment).

But why would someone mine knowing the fact that they will just get few pennies for their work?
Even with cheapest electricity possible, you won't break even your costs with that small transaction fee when mining will end up after all coins mined.

One more question:
Will developers decide to increase the number of bitcoins if this happens? Is it in their hands?
If this takes place, will the price remain the same?

[tobacco123]

The amount of transactions will then be large, plus the increased in Bitcoin value, the transaction fee itself will then be sufficient to cover the cost and profit for mining. All factors have been considered and in an equilibrium. The only thing that will kill Bitcoin is the lack of users and a decrease network size.

[2double0]

The amount of transactions will then be large, plus the increased in Bitcoin value, the transaction fee itself will then be sufficient to cover the cost and profit for mining. All factors have been considered and in an equilibrium. The only thing that will kill Bitcoin is the lack of users and a decrease network size.

Userbase is a completely different thing, as it depends on adoption, and today many people know about it, and will possibly get into this seeing how promising this currency is.
About the network, if you think fee will cover the cost and mining will still be profitable, then why do you say that the network size will be decreased?

[glerant]

The amount of transactions will then be large, plus the increased in Bitcoin value, the transaction fee itself will then be sufficient to cover the cost and profit for mining.

For the amount of transactions to replace, even the lowest future block rewards, either BTC would need a hardfork to enable a huge uplift in scaleability (many orders of magnitude) or the $ price per Bitcoin would have to be huge.

I see a move over to some form of POS combined with remaining POW, increased scaleability and a few percent per year inflation via POS in a hard fork within the medium term. Otherwise, IMHO, another currency based on blockchain will replace Bitcoin as a general currency for day to day transactions.

[universe_]

The amount of transactions will then be large, plus the increased in Bitcoin value, the transaction fee itself will then be sufficient to cover the cost and profit for mining. All factors have been considered and in an equilibrium. The only thing that will kill Bitcoin is the lack of users and a decrease network size.

yes, miners would be paid for mining because of all the transaction costs that people will pay for sending and receiving their bitcoins, so i doubt it is a problem to be honest

i think that mining will never end, because of that there is not threat for bitcoin that it will disappear or that something like that is going to happen, there are more problems that we need to worry about to be honest

[calkob]

Well the idea is that the fees for confirming transactions will be large enough that it will still be worth doing.

[krunox123]

Will developers decide to increase the number of bitcoins if this happens?

While the number of bitcoins in existence will never exceed 21 million, the money supply of bitcoins can exceed 21 million due to Fractional-reserve banking.

Source: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Money_Supply

Is it in their hands?

Theoretically, yes.

[Kprawn]

We are worried about things that are not going to happen, when we are still alive...  .... Just remember one thing.. The difficulty is very high because a lot of people are currently mining. Once

something happens where a lot of people exit the mining scene... the difficulty will come down, and more people with smaller GPU's and CPU's will once again start mining, even if this is only to

sustain the network. The bigger companies, will also invest into mining rigs to sustain their current businesses. If you have a few million invested into Bitcoin, you would start something to keep it

going, even if it is only there to extract the investment.     

[MicroGuy]

Guys, a question arose in my mind so I am here with it.
Just think, when 21 MN bitcoins get mined completely and miners won't get any more rewards except fee, will they still do the mining?
If they won't, mining will stop. How will blockchain move the transactions ahead?
How will the network run? Will we see a dump when it ends or a new rise in the value?
My purpose to ask this is to know the possibilities bitcoin will face in the future after this happens, and I think this will not take much longer, not more than 1 and half year.

Currently, it is thought that transaction fees will be sufficient to incentivize miners once mining stops 124 years from now.

However, I suspect we'll see dozens of hard forks between now and then as the currency evolves and adapts to its environment. Satoshi never intended for the development of bitcoin to remain static.

~~

[Yakamoto]

They mine for the transaction fees, and they keep the network moving through those fees.

At that point the value of Bitcoin will likely be incredibly high due to the <1BTC block rewards, and so the market will already know what they're paying, and thus transaction fees could remain relatively low and everyone would be able to walk off with everything they need.

Assuming Bitcoin is still around 2140, there will either be a lot of people using it or no-one at all, and thus the transaction fees will be relatively cheap per person due to the volume of transactions.

[actmyname]

They mine for the transaction fees, and they keep the network moving through those fees.

At that point the value of Bitcoin will likely be incredibly high due to the <1BTC block rewards, and so the market will already know what they're paying, and thus transaction fees could remain relatively low and everyone would be able to walk off with everything they need.

Assuming Bitcoin is still around 2140, there will either be a lot of people using it or no-one at all, and thus the transaction fees will be relatively cheap per person due to the volume of transactions.

Let's also not forget that if miners with high hash power decide to drop out, the difficulty will decrease in turn and thus regardless of who's mining, there will always be profit for someone. With a super-low difficulty, even people with crappy 2006 PC's could mine profitably.

[DannyHamilton]

Guys, a question arose in my mind so I am here with it.
Just think, when 21 MN bitcoins get mined completely and miners won't get any more rewards except fee, will they still do the mining?

Somewhere around the year 2140, long after we are all dead and gone?  Not sure why you care, but if bitcoin still exists at that time, then the fee will generate enough revenue for miners to continue.  If the fees aren't going to be enough, then the miners will have stopped and Bitcoin will have falied LONG before the last piece of the last bitcoin is mined.  For 4 years before that, the block subsidy will only be 0.00000001 BTC per block. For 4 years before that, the block subsidy will only be 0.00000002 BTC per block. For 4 years before that, the block subsidy will only be 0.00000004 BTC per block.

That's 12 years before the end of the block subsidy during which the block reward is less than 0.00000005 BTC per block.

If they won't, mining will stop. How will blockchain move the transactions ahead? How will the network run?

Either they will (in which case everything will be fine), or they won't (in which case the transactions won't ever get confirmed.  Of course, it only takes 1 miner with 1 CPU to confirm transactions, so you could always just run your own mining to confirm your own transaction, but the lack of security in a blockchain with so little hash power behind it would mean that it wouldn't really be worth anything at all, and nobody would want to use it.  Lets hope that the transaction fees are enough so that doesn't happen.

Will we see a dump when it ends or a new rise in the value?

Probably neither.  If bitcoin is still in use more than 120 years from now, then I suspect the exchange rate will have stabilized.  When the block subsidy drops from 0.00000001 BTC per block to 0 BTC per block, there will probably be no direct effect on the exchange rate at all.

My purpose to ask this is to know the possibilities bitcoin will face in the future after this happens, and I think this will not take much longer, not more than 1 and half year.

You are incorrect.  It will take more than 120 years until the block subsidy drops to 0 BTC.  It will be 12.5 BTC for the next 4 years.  Then it will be 6.25 BTC for 4 more years, then it will be 3.125 BTC for the 4 years after that, then it will be 1.5625 BTC for the 4 years after that.

That's at least 16 years with the block subsidy higher than 1 BTC.

But why would someone mine knowing the fact that they will just get few pennies for their work?
Even with cheapest electricity possible, you won't break even your costs with that small transaction fee when mining will end up after all coins mined.

If every transaction pays a fee of at least 100 satoshi per byte, a 1 megabyte block can generate a total of almost 1 BTC in fees.  At today's exchange rate, that's much more than "pennies".  That's more than $700.  As long as the mining difficulty drops low enough, that would cover the cost of the electricity and leave plenty of profit.  If the difficulty doesn't drop, then that will mean one (or more) of:

• Miners have discovered much more efficient ways to mine
• The protocol has been enhanced to allow more transactions per block
• The buying power of 1 BTC is much higher than it is today

One more question:
Will developers decide to increase the number of bitcoins if this happens?

Very very unlikely.

Is it in their hands?

No.  It is in the hands of the people running full nodes.

If this takes place, will the price remain the same?

Impossible to predict, but my opinion is that an increase in the maximum amount of bitcoins would result in a complete collapse of bitcoin exchange rate as everyone loses faith in the incentives built into the system.

[rizzlarolla]

 snipped

Guys, a question... when 21 MN bitcoins get mined completely.... mining will stop...How will the network run...
My purpose to ask ...I think this will not take much longer, not more than 1 and half year.

once mining stops 124 years from now.

Did you get that important point 2double0 hero member.
Fail.

[water world]

I have no idea am just new here.

[yenxz]

Guys, a question arose in my mind so I am here with it.
Just think, when 21 MN bitcoins get mined completely and miners won't get any more rewards except fee, will they still do the mining?
If they won't, mining will stop. How will blockchain move the transactions ahead?
How will the network run? Will we see a dump when it ends or a new rise in the value?
My purpose to ask this is to know the possibilities bitcoin will face in the future after this happens, and I think this will not take much longer, not more than 1 and half year.

i guess if bitcoin can't mined again,we will say goodbye to bitcoin soon,bitcoin will only transacted wallet to wallet or people to people,and this is will happen for sure,people predict this will happen in next 124 year later,but everything can happen before it.

[Cryptonitex]

If everyone stops mining the blockchain will stop, transactions won't confirm and no more blocks will be generated, however the chance of that happening is really small. I think once mining becomes inprofitable for miner (due to lowered block reward or other things) they will stop mining, the consequence of that is of course that the difficulty will lower dramatically so it will be profitable again, in the end it will always be profitable for someone (probably the ones with cheap electricity or cheap equipment).

Doesn't that make the network weak? If 75% of miners stop mining, then it's only being confirmed by weak computers. Won't transactions take longer also?

These are some of the problems of Proof of Work coins.

[Amph]

Either they will (in which case everything will be fine), or they won't (in which case the transactions won't ever get confirmed.  Of course, it only takes 1 miner with 1 CPU to confirm transactions, so you could always just run your own mining to confirm your own transaction, but the lack of security in a blockchain with so little hash power behind it would mean that it wouldn't really be worth anything at all, and nobody would want to use it.  Lets hope that the transaction fees are enough so that doesn't happen.

wasn't this the case with bitcoin when it was launched? tx were confirmed only by staoshi, and none even know what bitcoin, was, and everyone at the beginning were thinking that it was a virus or something not worth their attention

well one can argue, that in your scenario would be different, because for the second time, bitcoin would not be something new like the first time, but still...

for network security at that point, if the nethash falls too low, a new algo might enter in play, and should make the network somehow secure at the beginning

[Cryptonitex]

Either they will (in which case everything will be fine), or they won't (in which case the transactions won't ever get confirmed.  Of course, it only takes 1 miner with 1 CPU to confirm transactions, so you could always just run your own mining to confirm your own transaction, but the lack of security in a blockchain with so little hash power behind it would mean that it wouldn't really be worth anything at all, and nobody would want to use it.  Lets hope that the transaction fees are enough so that doesn't happen.

wasn't this the case with bitcoin when it was launched? tx were confirmed only by staoshi, and none even know what bitcoin, was, and everyone at the beginning were thinking that it was a virus or something not worth their attention

well one can argue, that in your scenario would be different, because for the second time, bitcoin would not be something new like the first time, but still...

for network security at that point, if the nethash falls too low, a new algo might enter in play, and should make the network somehow secure at the beginning

That was when nobody buy satoshi was using BitCoin. There was nothing on the blockchain.
Now, by the time it ends, Billions of people will be using BitCoin and the blockchain.
If so many people quit mining, I doubt that they could support the network.

[Quantus]

High fees = High security, Low fees = low security, its that simple.

If the block rewards + fees are < the potential reward of carrying out a 51% attack then the network will fail. If the Block rewards and fees are not enough of an incentive to "play by the rules" the network fails.
If the mining community collapses but the network still holds value the network fails.

I like the idea that if the mining community collapses leaving the network vulnerable we could switch out the hashing function used to confirm transactions.
However this could lead to a monopoly of new ASICs. (First mover advantage)



Freedom is not free and nether is bitcoin.


ELI5: If you want to protect $50 dollars you can securely store it in a $200 safe. If you want to store 10 million dollars you will need a more secure safe. The same is true for Bitcoin. But as our net value goes up our security (fees+block rewards) is going down. This is a serious issue.  

[MaritiJames3]

Then I think that more people would go over to just investing and bitcoin might even lose a couple of users. Many people were here just to mine some coins and now that it does not really work to mine coins now because of the halving coming many people are leaving.

[serjent05]

Then I think that more people would go over to just investing and bitcoin might even lose a couple of users. Many people were here just to mine some coins and now that it does not really work to mine coins now because of the halving coming many people are leaving.

Mining never ends for Bitcoin, after mining the last block of bitcoin, they are mining the TX FEE next.  But as profitability is concern,it is too early to know if it is still worh mining during that time.  Assuminig mining isn't that profitable, still there are enthusiast miners, that will never shutdown their machine since it gives them happiness.  Like your feeling when you got your first BTC. I agree at those time more people will be into investing or more probably shifting to BTC as their cash ( hey it's 1 century  after this year).

[LuckGone100]

although i never do mining and also not cares about.i just gamble and trade online and if mining ends ppl get rid of from those miner that's it

[RobinHoodster]

Then I think that more people would go over to just investing and bitcoin might even lose a couple of users. Many people were here just to mine some coins and now that it does not really work to mine coins now because of the halving coming many people are leaving.

Mining will never ends but if this will happen you are right they will just stay holding the bitcoin and invest more and do nothing else anymore due to that fact.

[pandalion98]

Then I think that more people would go over to just investing and bitcoin might even lose a couple of users. Many people were here just to mine some coins and now that it does not really work to mine coins now because of the halving coming many people are leaving.

Mining will never ends but if this will happen you are right they will just stay holding the bitcoin and invest more and do nothing else anymore due to that fact.

I think mining will never stop. It's just that instead of the miners profiting from block rewards (which now doesn't exist), they would now profit from the transaction fees.

Therefore, they probably will never confirm transactions with no TX fee, unless someone or a company strikes a deal with a miner to confirm every TX from that entity.

[Schuyler]

Then I think that more people would go over to just investing and bitcoin might even lose a couple of users. Many people were here just to mine some coins and now that it does not really work to mine coins now because of the halving coming many people are leaving.

Mining will never ends but if this will happen you are right they will just stay holding the bitcoin and invest more and do nothing else anymore due to that fact.

I think mining will never stop. It's just that instead of the miners profiting from block rewards (which now doesn't exist), they would now profit from the transaction fees.

Therefore, they probably will never confirm transactions with no TX fee, unless someone or a company strikes a deal with a miner to confirm every TX from that entity.

So if the mining would continue until after every bitcoin has been mined, would it still be worth the time to mine by then? Wouldn't mining affect transaction fee rates? That would be a very long time from now and no one living right now would be alive by then.

[Enotche]

A mining never end. After all, in order to function bitcoin network, ie, Mining committed to the transaction must always continue until the network lives. Because the blocks are wrapped in a transaction and stored in the database, where they are stored, and if mining ceases, it can no longer be transact, i.e. transfer coins to other people.

When the issue is over, ie, It will produce 21 million coins, the miners will receive a commission as a reward for the found block, and so it will always profitable occupation. Block creator will receive all commission network. Needless to competition for this commission, who has more power, those and more likely to find a block and get the commission will also work pools. So anything with Bitcoin since this does not happen.