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Author Topic: The Bitcoin Lottery  (Read 7685 times)
DaMan
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June 19, 2011, 11:27:50 AM
 #61

Oh my, so many postings.

I will try to explain my thoughts and system. If there is a better way I will change it, no problem.

First version of the game:

• 1 account for bank and jackpot
• initial setup: 20 btc added
• one roll 1-100

The jackpot was won 1 time by gordon with about 3,6 btc

The Problem:

I used only one account for playing and jackpot. So if some people win the bank balance gets lower and so the jackpot does. Because it is the same account.
With that system and the winning percentages of 180 and 270% there was no chance to raise the jackpot and make the game interesting. The win/loss percentage was round about the 50%. There was an alert message integrated that will stopp the game if the bank account value gets under 5 btc. Because at that stage the system could not guarantee that all payouts can be processed. In fact the bank balance varies between +/- 30 percent. I would call that well balanced.

I got some feedback and ideas from players and decided to change it.


Version 2

• seperate account for bank and jackpot
• two rolls: one for normal playing, using the bank account. one for the jackpot.
• adjustment of the rates: 154% and 224%

Benefits:

In each round, a fixed percentage can be added to the jackpot. The jackpot will increase steadily and is therefore independent from the normal game.

Problems of version 2:

The fees were deducted from the win. it was also stated on the website. The calculation of the charge transfer was not exact.

There was again some feedback and it was time for the next version.


Version 2.5

• fees are lowered from 3% to 1%, because of the new server version


Version 3, current

• seperate account for bank and jackpot
• two rolls: one for normal playing, using the bank account. one for the jackpot.
• fees were removed, and all fees are paid by bank account
• adjustment of the rates: 155% and 225%


Why two rolls:

The idea was that people who lost their playing round still have a chance at the jackpot.

Rolling system:

playing round: you roll 0-99 (in fact you can roll a 0! and a 99!)

if you rolled:
• 0-49 = no win
• 50-89 = win class 1 (155%)
• 89-99 = win class 2 (225%)

So there are 100 possible rolls.

The jackpot roll:

• 1-100

If you roll the 100 you will receive a 90% jackpot payout.


Winning system example with 2 rolls:

Jackpot value: 0.5 btc

If you bet 1 btc and roll a 60 in the regular round, you will receive 155% of your bet -> 1.55 btc.
If you jackpot roll a 100 in the same round, you will receive the profit from regular round plus the jackpots 90%.

Total payout: 1.55 + 0.495 = 2.045 btc


Winning system example with 1 roll:

If you roll a 60 you will receive 155% payout and you have not a second chance to get the jackpot in this round.


But if I think it's really better to roll only once ;-) It may helps to increase the jackpot.


What happend to the bet values:

Your bet = 100% to bank account.

to Jackpot: 10% will be moved to the Jackpot account
System fee: 5% will be moved to the system fee account (thats my cut: 0.005 btc per 0.1 btc bet)
The rest of 85% remains on the bank account.

The bitcoins on the bank account will be used to pay all transfer fees and winning payouts. If the bank account was less than 10 btc there will be a red warning display that maximum bets of 1 btc are probably not covered. The same message appears for 0.1 btc bets if the bank account is less 2 btc.

That was my approach and the current system. I hope I could clarify some processes. If there are further ideas, corrections etc. -> let me know.


@Auspician:
Extrapolations do not easily perform, as the system and the percentage of shares through user feedback have changed 3-4 times since its release last week.

Until now, the Jackpot was won 3 times. 1st Gordon, 2nd Hyper, 3rd Valdez.

@bitlotto:
I think there is no demonstration the the jackot can't be rigged to go to me. Bitcoin is so anonymous

As long as Bitcoin is anonymous and the transactions are not traceable and there is no unique user IDs, I think it is not possible to deliver a unique proof. If someone can verify the identities of users and transactions the Bitcoin project failed. But personally I would like to have a little bit more informations about transactions. To create a unique account for every user to verify who send/receive a transactoin is not very useful.

At this stage I like to use a modified quotation from slush:

In theory, as the service operator, I could keep the jackpot for myself. I'm not going to do this, but I completely accept that people do not trust the service operator. It is their freedom of choice, and Bitcoin is about freedom.

It is important to me that you understand that my interest is not the jackpot. My interest is that the site is used a lot and people play a lot. My cut are 5% per round, thats my interest.

Of course I have to look that the bank account is balanced. If the account falls too quickly, I either have to reduce the profit rates or say goodbye to the 50%. If it rises slowly, one could raise the profits, or increase the maximum bet value.


The possible next Version

• one roll for winning & jackpot
• a first statistic page

The thing with the hash I have in my mind, but so far had no time to occupy myself so thoroughly.

Kind Regards.
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bitlotto
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June 19, 2011, 04:30:48 PM
 #62

@bitlotto:
I think there is no demonstration the the jackot can't be rigged to go to me. Bitcoin is so anonymous

As long as Bitcoin is anonymous and the transactions are not traceable and there is no unique user IDs, I think it is not possible to deliver a unique proof. If someone can verify the identities of users and transactions the Bitcoin project failed. But personally I would like to have a little bit more informations about transactions. To create a unique account for every user to verify who send/receive a transactoin is not very useful.

At this stage I like to use a modified quotation from slush:

In theory, as the service operator, I could keep the jackpot for myself. I'm not going to do this, but I completely accept that people do not trust the service operator. It is their freedom of choice, and Bitcoin is about freedom.

It is important to me that you understand that my interest is not the jackpot. My interest is that the site is used a lot and people play a lot. My cut are 5% per round, thats my interest.

Thanks. I was just curious. You seem like an honest guy.

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
lemonginger
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June 19, 2011, 04:42:02 PM
 #63

Having an accessible record of the outcome of all rolls and their associated transfers could go a long way towards having people trust that the odds they are presented with are actually their odds.
DaMan
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June 19, 2011, 05:33:34 PM
 #64

I hope I can finish a one roll playing system tonight.

There was a guy in the german thread who known how to calculate the probabilitys. I hope he can help me to optimize my percentual payouts.

If there is a 50% chance of winning and the bank account is not possible to cover the long run, I need to reduce the winning  chance or payout percentage.

I'll keep you informed!

But it's great to see the project developed!!!
DaMan
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June 19, 2011, 08:55:37 PM
 #65

One roll system integrated and ready.

Next turn: statistics
DaMan
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June 20, 2011, 06:58:04 PM
 #66

We had to reduce the 50% winning chance to 40% because it was not possible to cover the winning payout in the long term. I was hoping it would work, but in normal playing operation, it is not possible.

The statistics page is on the way!

Kind regards!
lemonginger
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June 20, 2011, 07:02:10 PM
 #67

huh? ~~84% was being paid back. The rest minus your cut went to the jackpot.
jme621
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June 20, 2011, 08:44:52 PM
 #68

@jme621

btc send to the bitcoin address you used to play: 18jevo.......

Tell me if you received it.

Kind regards from Germany!

sorry for delay in response, yes i did

DaMan
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June 20, 2011, 10:18:03 PM
 #69


Statistics page ready: http://bitcoin.dyndns.info/bt/statistics.php

Please note that the statistics unfortunately starts from today 19:23 h, because I did not save some of the required data fields in the past. I added the fields this evening and I hope it will work now. I have to check the jackpot winner display in the history list as soon as the next player wins.

Kind regards!
RyanWebber
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June 21, 2011, 07:18:02 AM
 #70

Damn when did the 50% win percentage get switched to 40% go into effect? Today?

That sucks, I actually had some decent luck on this site up until the 40% change. Now I'm having terrible streaks lol  Cry Still fun either way but ya...

If I have been remotely useful feel free to donate:
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mmavipc
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June 21, 2011, 07:29:33 AM
 #71

Can you make the minimum bet 0.01BTC please?

http://payb.tc/mmavipc

Want to gamble some bitcoins? Click here!
RyanWebber
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June 21, 2011, 07:53:44 AM
 #72

Can you make the minimum bet 0.01BTC please?

I second this.

If I have been remotely useful feel free to donate:
1DgkA1S64CoVGu1q5JFSz4maRQJYw2dMC8
DaMan
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June 21, 2011, 08:03:23 AM
 #73

Hi!

@Eggcellent:

The percentage get switched last night when noone was playing. But 40% is only the chance. Maybe you see the new Statistics Button. There you will find the real calculated winning percentage, based on all games since yesterday 19:23 h (CET).

The current calculated winning chance is 47.37%.

And you will see how many rounds were played without a jackpot winner. The Jackpot chance is 1:100. Now there were 114 rounds played without a winner. So its time for the next winner.

http://bitcoin.dyndns.info/bt/statistics.php


@mmavipc:

I think a minimum bet 0.01 btc is to low. The jackpot will raise (10%) each round. So if the bet was 0.01 btc the jackpot will be increased by 0.1 btc every 100 rounds. At a winning chance of 1:100 that will not very interesting. The only thing i can imagine is, that you can play the normal game with 0.01 btc, but will not have the chance to win the jackpot with that low bet.

What do you think?

And what do you other players think? Should this be done? Or not?

Regards.
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June 21, 2011, 08:40:17 AM
 #74

The only thing i can imagine is, that you can play the normal game with 0.01 btc, but will not have the chance to win the jackpot with that low bet.

What do you think?

And what do you other players think? Should this be done? Or not?

That works.

http://payb.tc/mmavipc

Want to gamble some bitcoins? Click here!
DaMan
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June 21, 2011, 09:10:41 PM
 #75

Now you can bet with a new minimum of 0.01 btc. To win the jackpot, you still have to bet a minumin of 0.1 btc.

http://bitcoin.dyndns.info/bt/

Kind regards.
fourks
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June 22, 2011, 08:22:39 AM
 #76

3 Jackpots within a few hours! Is that normal?
bitlotto
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June 22, 2011, 01:08:20 PM
 #77

3 Jackpots within a few hours! Is that normal?
Sure, that's within probabilities that aren't too far fetched. Now if 6 Jackpots happened all in a row, then I'd worry, as chances are something is wrong with the software, BUT even that is still possible, just unlikely.

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
TOR2WEB
Donations to: 1JQdiQsjhV2uJ4Y8HFtdqteJsZhv835a8J are appreciated.
lemonginger
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June 22, 2011, 01:37:22 PM
 #78

This phrase is a little silly to anyone that knows anything about statistics

Chance to win the Jackpot: average

You chance to win the jackpot is the exact same every turn (if it is a fair roll). It doesn't matter if the previous jackpot was 1 turn ago or 500 turns ago.
tito13kfm
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June 22, 2011, 06:00:36 PM
 #79

Ignoring fees, back of the napkin calculation

A .1 BTC bet would need a jackpot of 15 5.2 BTC to have an EV of over .1

50% to win 150%.  .1BTC EV=.025 .075BTC
.5% to win Jackpot @15 5.2BTC     .1BTC EV= .026BTC

Edit: I'm retarded... I was using 50% chance to win back half your bet in the original calculation

Jackpot >5.2BTC Bet like your life depends on it it's free money at that point!

DaMan
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June 22, 2011, 07:43:45 PM
 #80

@lemonginger:

Of course you are right. I just thought it was a nice display. Its based on the number of games played without a jackpot. But it's silly and I will remove it.


@tito13kfm:

I don't understand what you mean. sorry Sad what is EV?

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