How High or low will Bitcoin go?

[AgeraS]

Over the last year Bitcoin has gone from ~$5 all the way to ~$49.
How high, or low, do you think Bitcoin will be at in March 2014?

[1714103505]

1714103505

[DruffDuff]

My uneducated guess? Significantly higher. Bitcoins are useful and will continue to be useful for a long time. They're a commodity, like anything else. There will be more spikes but I'm pretty sure that, a year from now, they'll be even more valuable.

[rh1n025]

My uneducated guess? Significantly higher. Bitcoins are useful and will continue to be useful for a long time. They're a commodity, like anything else. There will be more spikes but I'm pretty sure that, a year from now, they'll be even more valuable.

This +1

[McMini]

No one will know for sure. Be I belive that the value indeed will increase as more and more people join in.

[SgtSpike]

$200 by March 2014, barring any major hack or problem with the software.

[rayvellest]

I would be surprised at all if it's reaching the $100 figure by this time, hell, I've heard people saying it will explode above the $1000 line.

[Wekkel]

If $100 is breached, $1,000 will not be a psychological barrier anymore.

[MarlboroMan]

I bought 100 bitcoins when they were 13$ because I know the value will increase exponentially in the future. I tell everyone to invest but they blow me off with "Its to good to be true" and simply believe its a ponzy scheme. Well, il have fun with my jets, mansions, jakuzies, own island, while the world falls into another economic recession and USD is completly worthless.

[aquarius]

compared to the dollar? to close to infinity sooner or later

[biodieselchris]

Short term

Long term, I thnk the max price  is attainable: [global GDP $69.97T / max BTC (21M) = $3,300,000] per coin; less any that is allocated to some of the other currencies out there LTC, NVC, NMC, etc...

So let's say a cool $1M/coin and leave at that   

[Zithras]

I think $40+ a bitcoin is already a bit insane.  To me, this means that, probably not many people are actually paying USD for their bitcoins, but are rather acquiring them through other methods.

[pajarator]

I think it may fall suddenly down to $20, where it was a while ago and stayed there for a while...

or maybe it will continue going up, you never know!

[biodieselchris]

I kinda agree we'll see a pullback into the 20's (look for support around 25). If that holds it's a buying opportunity and the next push will be between 60-75.

[shibaji]

What goes up suddenly, must come down to settle. Value should increase significantly, provided the whole paradigm exist.

[Grandma]

Its a "thinly traded" market, and therefore is subject to a few "characteristics" you won't find in commodities such as "CORN" or "Swiss Francs"

1. Price volatility. Bitcoin has the potential to "Kiss" very high numbers - as seen in that graph.

2. Crushing/Squeezing: Entities that do not want to see it appreciate can hammer thinly traded markets.

3. Manipulating: These same entities can make profits with predictable "swings". Several methods exist to "damper" their effects; community involvement with an awareness of what they can do, as well as "tempering your own greed" by using bitcoin as a "safe haven" and not an "investment" (avoid speculation, rather learn to rely on Bitcoin's stability), is a big part of that.

4. Expansion and a nice, steady rise against other currencies. Because of the nature of issuance and security of the hash, Bitcoin has the potential to rise quite steadily as many nations are currently involved in "currency printing wars" to devalue their currencies at accelerated rates.

This trend can only play well for Bitcoin or any currency that restricts its issuance to a known, predictable rate.

[christop]

It's a little hard to say, given that the price has been rising fairly steadily for only a little over a year now, but here are my speculations. I'll probably be proven wrong in a year, but that's fine by me!

In March of 2014, one Bitcoin will be worth between $175 and $300. If you want a more precise answer, I'll say $180.

In the short term, I foresee a bubble popping sometime this month. It'll be only a tiny ripple compared to the June 2011 bubble. The price will drop to about $30 within two months (by May). The price will slowly rise for about three months (until August) and then rise more quickly up to $100 in two months by October. I hope that's detailed enough speculation for everyone!

I also hope that I'm right about the price drop in a couple months. I'm holding out to buy some Bitcoins at that time.

Edit: by the way, feel free to quote me so I can't "revoke" my speculations.

[biodieselchris]

Now, let's also predict where Litecoin will be? Late last year it was 9 cents. Two days ago it was 45 cents and today it's 63 cents. https://btc-e.com/exchange/ltc_usd. 

[No_2]

I think $40+ a bitcoin is already a bit insane.  To me, this means that, probably not many people are actually paying USD for their bitcoins, but are rather acquiring them through other methods.

A very interesting point Zithras. Does that not also rule out the $ as the only form of commodity to exchange for value though?

[Bytas]

Hmm, i'm just new to this, but i might consider an investment looking at that graph!

[MonkeyBear68]

That is hard to predict. Bitcoin is a VERY unique investment opportunity. The more businesses that accept BTC as payment, the higher its value will need to be.

Think of it this way. Suppose we have a single business that does 100 million in sales a day. If they begin accepting BTC and do 10% of their sales in Bitcoin, then with the current number of Bitcoins in existence (~11 million) each one would need to go up slightly under a dollar to be able to capitalize the daily sales of that business that are paid for in BTC. Therefore, the more businesses that accept BTC and the more people that use BTC the higher it will need to rise.

The above is of course a bit simplistic as many people are simply holding BTC and they are not in active circulation. This means that the BTC value would probably need to go up more than a dollar to effectively capitalize the daily sales of that one business.

To make Bitcoin succeed by all means buy some as an investment, but it is equally important to support the businesses that accept BTC by buying from them and paying in BTC.

[jzcjca00]

I'm predicting $500 by March 2014.  Here's why.

The positive press will continue for a while.  We're not yet important enough to warrant serious attacks from the overlords.  First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they attack you, then you win.  I doubt we'll switch from the "ignore" phase to the "ridicule" phase in the next 12 months.

Bitcoin will prove to be relatively stable in price primarily because the super rich cannot SHORT it and crush the price.  To sell Bitcoin, you have to have some!  To sell a bunch, you have to first acquire a bunch, which will drive up the price and create more positive press.  Unless they find a bug to exploit, they cannot crash Bitcoin without building it way up first.  And if they do that, they might find that it's too big for them to crush.

I believe most Bitcoins are currently held by "true believers" who are unlikely to dump them, even if the price starts to slide.  And I know there are lots of people who will buy more if they see lower prices.

The CoinLab/Mt.Gox deal will make it easier for people in the U.S. to purchase Bitcoin with minimal fees and much less hassle.  (If that deal turns out to be a bust, someone else will make it happen.)  As it gets easier for people all over the world to purchase Bitcoin, each piece of news will bring in more long-term investors.

More merchants will start accepting Bitcoin because there's no downside.  The fees are lower, there are no chargebacks, your customers see that you offer more choices for them, and some payment processors give a price guarantee, where you are guaranteed to get the list price in your home currency.

The ridiculously small number of Bitcoins, only 1 for every 700 people on Earth, is genius.  It already looks like BTC is 50 times healthier than the USD, and steadily climbing.  It's like Berkshire Hathaway.  People are impressed by the price.  If there were 10000 times as many shares, the value would be the same, but the price would be psychologically less impressive.  Some day people will be exclaiming that Bitcoin is obviously a fabulous investment because it has gone from under $1 to over $1000, and is still climbing. If it had made the same move, percentage-wise, from $0.01 to $10, it would look like a worthless penny stock.

So the next 12 months should bring mostly positive press, an increase in the number of people wanting to get in while it's still relatively low, and a fairly steady increase in price as the law of supply and demand works its inevitable magic.

That's my prediction.