Bitcoin fair price in 2013 - A more realistic poll

[Largo]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-US#q=%22buy%20bitcoins%22&date=8%2F2010%2033m&cmpt=q

i would say 47 looks right

[rpietila]

It was a scenario analysis for bitcoin's value in 5 years. I don't remember the exact figures (it's buried somewhere in the speculation forum as it is - gasp - already 48 hours old).

Something like, 4 scenarios

A) Mass adoption gets the price to $20000
B) Steady, albeit slowing rise of price to $1500
C) Bitcoin is wounded and price is stuck anywhere between $10 and $100
D) Bitcoin folds altogether and goes to zero.

Then I assigned probabilities to these scenarios, calculated the expected value and discounted it to find the net present value. $2000 was the present value.

This kind of analysis is very important, since bitcoin does have the fat tail of very large payouts in not-so-small probabilities. If there was not the possibility of $20000 price, the NPV of course would not be anywhere close to $2000. I am finding it funny to state that $200 in 5 years is an example of a scenario where bitcoin has failed.

[Wekkel]

Thanks for sharing. I did some calculations on my own, based on a suggested market cap. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=146022.msg1630314#msg1630314
Of course, exponential growth is a very tricky assumption - especially when massaging the annual growth rate to meet your own expectations - although I consider an average factor of 1.6 not to necessarily be extraordinary.

[Frequency]

If what happend in Cyprus today ( gov. Shut down the entire bankingsystem, they choose the weekend to do so to steel there peoples money)  then Btc will succeed and will get more and more attention...

There's no such thing as fair price regarding to Bitcoin, so I cannot understand people giving any value.

Think of it from an other perspective:

The price of bitcoin just indicates how big the BTC economy is.

It is insignificantly small at the moment.

This is a good way to see/say it

[rpietila]

Thanks for sharing. I did some calculations on my own, based on a suggested market cap. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=146022.msg1630314#msg1630314
Of course, exponential growth is a very tricky assumption - especially when massaging the annual growth rate to meet your own expectations - although I consider an average factor of 1.6 not to necessarily be extraordinary.

Nice analysis +1. For some time I thought you were a bear. Maybe you were just buying, like I also did last week.

[Wekkel]

Nice analysis +1. For some time I thought you were a bear. Maybe you were just buying, like I also did last week.

I'm suspicious of the large run up lately, but technical indicators just do not seem to matter with Bitcoin. It's a whole new game.....

From my perspective, I am not gambling or speculating but protecting my savings for the benefit of me and my family. The Robber Baron's are on the loose, and I don't want an involuntary part of that.

_{Note: LTC seems like a nice speculative prospect. In theory 1/4th of a BTC, so it still has a 20x potential if enterprise is build around it. I like it's fast confirmations and the spread of risks over multiple currencies. We'll see in the next few years...}

[Odalv]

It was a scenario analysis for bitcoin's value in 5 years. I don't remember the exact figures (it's buried somewhere in the speculation forum as it is - gasp - already 48 hours old).

Something like, 4 scenarios

A) Mass adoption gets the price to $20000
B) Steady, albeit slowing rise of price to $1500
C) Bitcoin is wounded and price is stuck anywhere between $10 and $100
D) Bitcoin folds altogether and goes to zero.

Then I assigned probabilities to these scenarios, calculated the expected value and discounted it to find the net present value. $2000 was the present value.

This kind of analysis is very important, since bitcoin does have the fat tail of very large payouts in not-so-small probabilities. If there was not the possibility of $20000 price, the NPV of course would not be anywhere close to $2000. I am finding it funny to state that $200 in 5 years is an example of a scenario where bitcoin has failed.

What if Sathoshi Group controls (35-78)% of currency. Are you still confident ? (and they will never sell a single Bitcoin next 10 years because they have a lot of $B in USD)

[rpietila]

For all I know, the likely upper limit for Satoshi group's holdings is about BTC2,500,000.00000000. That is a huge number of satoshi, I agree. But it is only about 10% of the total btc issued.

Call me pervert if you like, but I actually like the idea of a wealthy and responsible entity behind something. The power behind the current world order are wealthy, yes, but I don't like the way the manage the world. Satoshigroup has so far been doing better, as evidenced by the +100,000% rise (1000:1) of USD/BTC exchange rate since the opening of Mt.Gox.

For everyone buying gold, I am sure you realize that 60% of world's gold in the hands of the bankers. Not so with silver. So guess which one is more trustable and valued? Gold, indeed.

The so called Satoshi group has been behind stalling this rally for the common good. Otherwise, who would have sold? I was seriously considering it would go directly to $100-$300, followed by a huge crash. The current course of action is so much better if BTC is ever to gain some mainstream credibility.

It was a scenario analysis for bitcoin's value in 5 years. I don't remember the exact figures (it's buried somewhere in the speculation forum as it is - gasp - already 48 hours old).

Something like, 4 scenarios

A) Mass adoption gets the price to $20000
B) Steady, albeit slowing rise of price to $1500
C) Bitcoin is wounded and price is stuck anywhere between $10 and $100
D) Bitcoin folds altogether and goes to zero.

Then I assigned probabilities to these scenarios, calculated the expected value and discounted it to find the net present value. $2000 was the present value.

This kind of analysis is very important, since bitcoin does have the fat tail of very large payouts in not-so-small probabilities. If there was not the possibility of $20000 price, the NPV of course would not be anywhere close to $2000. I am finding it funny to state that $200 in 5 years is an example of a scenario where bitcoin has failed.

What if Sathoshi Group controls (35-78)% of currency. Are you still confident ? (and they will never sell a single Bitcoin next 10 years because they have a lot of $B in USD)

[mp420]

We are at the fair price at the moment, since that's what the price is. It's a tautology. The market decides the fair price for a given moment.

Also, at this price I don't want to either buy or sell bitcoins, so I think it's neither grossly undervalued nor grossly overvalued.

[piramida]

Ok one last necrodig. The funniest one. The poll has all the options - except its highest guess missed the actual high by x13 times

[zimmah]

Ok one last necrodig. The funniest one. The poll has all the options - except its highest guess missed the actual high by x13 times

the funniest thing is you can still vote on it

[Malin Keshar]

will save this topic for reference for those who thinks bitcoin is dying only because a few 100s $ fall in value