Is bitcoin doomed to fail because of all the horders?

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Not doomed to fail, but it is a big problem that makes it look like a ponzi. I know it's not!
But in order for Bitcoin to make it as a currency, it must work. Right now, it doesn't work. By "work" I mean, it must flow, move, be used for things other than speculation.

Sad.

Bitcoin does flow, and is being used for other things than speculation.  For myself, I buy stuff with it all of the time; from cell service airtime to handmade knick-knacks of Etsy to high end candies to hats for my characters on Team Fortress 2.  As of this moment, Bitcoinwatch reports that while there have been just over 20K BTC that have changed hands in the past 24 hours there have been nearly 5 and half million BTC sent across the network during that same period.  Even discounting double the volume on MtGox from the main network, in order to account for the maximum number of coins that could have been fed into and withdrawn from MtGox during that same time period to service the speculators still leaves us with over 5.4 M BTC in motion.  That's just about 270 times the nominal bitcoin volume of the single largest pool of speculators in the bitcoin economy.  During the last fast rise and crash in 2011, speculation formed the greater part of the Bitcoin economy; but this is no longer so.

Well then, I thank you for using BTC as they're meant to be used. Most do not!

I'm sure a vast majority of that 5.4M coins are just shuffled around, because there is no way there is $253M worth of commerce in the past 24 hours. How much of that is SD?

[MoonShadow]

Not doomed to fail, but it is a big problem that makes it look like a ponzi. I know it's not!
But in order for Bitcoin to make it as a currency, it must work. Right now, it doesn't work. By "work" I mean, it must flow, move, be used for things other than speculation.

Sad.

Bitcoin does flow, and is being used for other things than speculation.  For myself, I buy stuff with it all of the time; from cell service airtime to handmade knick-knacks of Etsy to high end candies to hats for my characters on Team Fortress 2.  As of this moment, Bitcoinwatch reports that while there have been just over 20K BTC that have changed hands in the past 24 hours there have been nearly 5 and half million BTC sent across the network during that same period.  Even discounting double the volume on MtGox from the main network, in order to account for the maximum number of coins that could have been fed into and withdrawn from MtGox during that same time period to service the speculators still leaves us with over 5.4 M BTC in motion.  That's just about 270 times the nominal bitcoin volume of the single largest pool of speculators in the bitcoin economy.  During the last fast rise and crash in 2011, speculation formed the greater part of the Bitcoin economy; but this is no longer so.

Well then, I thank you for using BTC as they're meant to be used. Most do not!

I'm sure a vast majority of that 5.4M coins are just shuffled around, because there is no way there is $253M worth of commerce in the past 24 hours. How much of that is SD?

Do you have any evidence for this statement, or do you just feel that you're correct?

[sasquat]

Hoarders destroying bitcoin? what a nonsense!
it is mathemathically impossible to hoard so much that the system stops flowing in bitcoin.
thats because bitcoins are limited and because if the hoarders IE: hold half or more than the total network then the inflation would make the bitcoins have the value of a icecream,which will make the hoarders spend their money.else they will lose all the money.
and this way, bouncing up and down the bitcoin auto-regulates!

[qbnphreak]

Hoarders? You've heard of BitcoinJam right? If you feel that way then go lend your coins to startups and people there you filthy miser

I think it all depends on how the dev team handles it and the community remains pretty anarchistic Bitcoin will probably do well, but I'm feeling fairly cautious right now, I'm still betting on Bitcoin because it's a wise move and really damn cheap right now , but when I can afford it I'll probably diversify into gold and silver.

Yeah.... The only reason Diamonds are so expensive is becuase debeers has like 1,000 tons of the stuff locked beheind closed doors in Antwerp. Scarcity = Values.... HELLLLOOOOOOO Adam Smith!

[jayleno]

Hoarders? You've heard of BitcoinJam right? If you feel that way then go lend your coins to startups and people there you filthy miser

I think it all depends on how the dev team handles it and the community remains pretty anarchistic Bitcoin will probably do well, but I'm feeling fairly cautious right now, I'm still betting on Bitcoin because it's a wise move and really damn cheap right now , but when I can afford it I'll probably diversify into gold and silver.

Yeah.... The only reason Diamonds are so expensive is becuase debeers has like 1,000 tons of the stuff locked beheind closed doors in Antwerp. Scarcity = Values.... HELLLLOOOOOOO Adam Smith!

Scarcity, so you are saying that horders are artificially inflating the price of the currency basically, right? That was my original concern... Thanks for your perspective.

On another note, I just want to say I'm not trying to start an issue here. I am just an average Jay considering investing in Bitcoins and this is pretty much my main major concern.  If horders and losers, (in the sense of losing their bitcoins) really build up there won't be enough liquidity to attract major retailers. I wish the currency itself could increase its value on a fix scale much like it's quantity does as well.

[dscotese]

Fiat currency has brainwashed you!
Ok, it brainwashed me too...  The simple question is:  What unit of account do you use when you put a monetary value on something?  Say an hour of your time doing something not-so-fun but at which you're good (like what you do to earn a living).  What's it worth?  Do you use a fiat currency for the answer?  Is it hard to use something else?  That is the effect of fiat currency brainwashing.

Don't feel bad.  I have a hard time using stuff other than dollars to value my time (and everything else), but I'm aware of the problem and always looking at ways to solve it.

The owner of voluntaryist.com turned me onto Erik Voorhees' blog, which helps a lot to show the value of bitcoin without ever insinuating or implying that fiat currency has any value.

[podizzle]

i sell bitcoins all the time! to buy litecoins, terracoins, and ppcoins!

[MoonShadow]

If horders and losers, (in the sense of losing their bitcoins) really build up there won't be enough liquidity to attract major retailers. I wish the currency itself could increase its value on a fix scale much like it's quantity does as well.

You're still not getting it.  What I highlighted above is, quite literally, impossible with Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is perfectly frictionless. (So long as the Internet exists)  There is no external impediment to velocity, and it has a very high maximum possible velocity.  There can never be a systemwide liquidity problem for Bitcoiners in the absence of a concurrent solvency problem.

It's also literally impossible for the bitcoin economy as a whole to have a solvency problem.

You're not dealing with anything like what you're used to.

[Canaanite]

One of Bitcoin's biggest strengths is that they cannot be shorted - you have to have Bitcoins to sell them - so we will not see the extreme volatility you see in other places.

The bitcoin cannot be shorted today as there is no easy and fast procedure to do that,
to do a short means to borrow, if there is an active market you can always borrow from it... you just need the securities.
When the bitcoin will grow a bit more I'm sure it will be easier to take a short position.
(being able to do a short position is actually a good thing - It improves liquidity and helps to find the fair value)

[MoonShadow]

One of Bitcoin's biggest strengths is that they cannot be shorted - you have to have Bitcoins to sell them - so we will not see the extreme volatility you see in other places.

The bitcoin cannot be shorted today as there is no easy and fast procedure to do that,
to do a short means to borrow, if there is an active market you can always borrow from it... you just need the securities.
When the bitcoin will grow a bit more I'm sure it will be easier to take a short position.
(being able to do a short position is actually a good thing - It improves liquidity and helps to find the fair value)

Of course you can short bitcoins.  You simply borrow bitcoins from someone, and sell them on the exchange with the intent of buying back the number to pay back your loan at a later date.  It should be obvious how dangerous this actually is, both for yourself and your lender.

[kerstone]

good point ron. Like i was saying, its more speculation. Isnt speculation the shit that f****d us twice?

[dscotese]

good point ron. Like i was saying, its more speculation. Isnt speculation the shit that f****d us twice?

No, not speculation.  Government interference is what f****d us, and it wasn't twice.  1776, 1812, 1865, 1913, 1933, 1941, 1971, 2001, 2008.

Speculation helps separate people who take too many or too few risks from those who take the risks they can handle.

[kerstone]

My point: Why think about btc the same way we think about money. lets make changes. theres no one to tell us we cant.
okay. everyone stop using bitcoin for a day. Maybe two. see what happens to the "market." Im interested. this is a social experiment. Like a conscious ddos.

[kerstone]

Fiat currency has brainwashed you!
Ok, it brainwashed me too...  The simple question is:  What unit of account do you use when you put a monetary value on something?  Say an hour of your time doing something not-so-fun but at which you're good (like what you do to earn a living).  What's it worth?  Do you use a fiat currency for the answer?  Is it hard to use something else?  That is the effect of fiat currency brainwashing.

Don't feel bad.  I have a hard time using stuff other than dollars to value my time (and everything else), but I'm aware of the problem and always looking at ways to solve it.

The owner of voluntaryist.com turned me onto Erik Voorhees' blog, which helps a lot to show the value of bitcoin without ever insinuating or implying that fiat currency has any value.

[jayleno]

Fiat currency has brainwashed you!
Ok, it brainwashed me too...  The simple question is:  What unit of account do you use when you put a monetary value on something?  Say an hour of your time doing something not-so-fun but at which you're good (like what you do to earn a living).  What's it worth?  Do you use a fiat currency for the answer?  Is it hard to use something else?  That is the effect of fiat currency brainwashing.

Don't feel bad.  I have a hard time using stuff other than dollars to value my time (and everything else), but I'm aware of the problem and always looking at ways to solve it.

The owner of voluntaryist.com turned me onto Erik Voorhees' blog, which helps a lot to show the value of bitcoin without ever insinuating or implying that fiat currency has any value.

It's not about me personally being brainwashed. Quite frankly I understand that what I think doesn't really matter one way or another very much. I tend to be clear headed and optimistic. The problem with that is that most others aren't for whatever reason. So it's about the mob mentality and if everyone is saying left is right then well.. it is. If everyone is brainwashed by fiat then unbrainwashing everyone is going to be a very difficult task if that's what its going to take for BTC to succeed.

That aside, your question is too tempting not to answer. Without using fiat or btc I'd say an hour of my time in food is worth a fast food combo meal, pack of smokes and one day stay at a 1 star motel.

[dscotese]

So it's about the mob mentality and if everyone is saying left is right then well.. it is. If everyone is brainwashed by fiat then unbrainwashing everyone is going to be a very difficult task if that's what its going to take for BTC to succeed.

It doesn't take that.  That will happen because we will be successful and they will follow our lead (assuming that we maintain the technology and solve whatever hurdles we encounter).  However, I have to take issue with your analogy to left and right.  Left and right are conventions born of agreeing on labels for handedness.  We are free to swap the labels and confuse everyone except those in the know.  Fiat isn't like that.  Legal tender laws and other government interference actually damage the cooperative human behavior that makes economies work.  We are free to abandon it, but we have to see a clear path, and that is why I bring up the brainwashing.  Being fully aware of the difference between left and right makes it clear that "if everyone says left is right then well.. it is."  This is NOT the case with everyone saying bitcoin has value (only) in terms of fiat currencies, except on the superficial level of their superficial understanding.  Erik's blog explains it better than I have.

That aside, your question is too tempting not to answer. Without using fiat or btc I'd say an hour of my time in food is worth a fast food combo meal, pack of smokes and one day stay at a 1 star motel.

You're on the right track now.  Oddly, the effect of this will be to reduce the excitement and exhilaration of watching the price of bitcoin rise.  We just won't care as it becomes more and more useful in trading for such things as hours of our time, fast food, smokes, or a room.

[kolesozw]

Hoarding helps bitoin, it mean hoarders believe the current price is undervalued and keep buying thus increasing price. If almost no one hoards (and buy), but instead everyone rush to sell the price would be cents/BTC , thus failed to be alternative payment method