Cart before the Horse

[pooya87]

a couple of months ago before halving and before the rise, i kept seeing people talk about "supply and demand" and how halving is going to affect it in a way that price rises.

but now that block reward is halved it seems like everybody has forgotten what they were saying, and have forgotten that block halving should have happened and block reward should have turned into 12.5BTC before all those things about supply and demand come true.

what i'm saying is that you gotta have patience and let a couple of blocks be mined, then the number of coins miners get and then dump reduces then see any rise because of that.
you are not going to see it on the day of the rise!!

[1715461840]

1715461840

[1715461840]

1715461840

[1715461840]

1715461840

[Angell]

a couple of months ago before halving and before the rise, i kept seeing people talk about "supply and demand" and how halving is going to affect it in a way that price rises.

but now that block reward is halved it seems like everybody has forgotten what they were saying, and have forgotten that block halving should have happened and block reward should have turned into 12.5BTC before all those things about supply and demand come true.

what i'm saying is that you gotta have patience and let a couple of blocks be mined, then the number of coins miners get and then dump reduces then see any rise because of that.
you are not going to see it on the day of the rise!!

I agree with you, people expected miracles. The market and economics don't work that way. It takes days even months to take effect.

[john2231]

Yeah exactly well i think they are just excited for the price rise that they are thinking that the effect of block halving is instantly happen..
It takes more weeks days or months before we will see that the price will rise better to always rlay at demand and supply.. if we are lucky tommmorow bitcoin will be in demand expect for fast movement of price rise because of our right now is half..

[drwtsn32]

They thought that it would be that simple. Some people just know that after the halving, something good happens right away.
They don't understand how it really works.

The number of stupid individuals in the community is getting high.  

[1Referee]

People were only talking about the block halving to do this, and to do that. What happened? Not much... Now the block halving has taken place, people have nothing left to talk about.

[Red-Apple]

that makes sense.
and also i want to add that in the last halving 4 years ago it took a couple of months before price went up 2x and then more and in the month of halving there were no change in price.

People were only talking about the block halving to do this, and to do that. What happened? Not much... Now the block halving has taken place, people have nothing left to talk about.

what happened is that price has gone up throughout last months because of the hype and now people are wondering why it has stopped.

[Slark]

You forget couple things here:

1. Price of BTC already skyrocketed more than 60% BEFORE the halving - in anticipation for this event.
2. Halving is not "DOUBLE BTC PRICE SWITCH ON/OFF"
3. After 1st bitcoin halving price didn't go up immediately as well.
4. It need time to react to decresed reward per block - it could take months before new stable higher price BTC will emerge.

[elite3000]

Gonna take a while for the effects of the halving come, if there will be any effect at all.

Miners have some BTC stockpiled, they won't panic sell or panic buy all the BTC in sight just because the halving happened

[pooya87]

You forget couple things here:

1. Price of BTC already skyrocketed more than 60% BEFORE the halving - in anticipation for this event.

yeah, i understand that. and i am not analyzing the price and the future of it here. i am just simply pointing out the big mistake that i have been seeing on bitcointalk for a while. and in the past 3 days i keep seeing new topics saying "why is there no rise because of halving?"!

2. Halving is not "DOUBLE BTC PRICE SWITCH ON/OFF"
3. After 1st bitcoin halving price didn't go up immediately as well.
4. It need time to react to decresed reward per block - it could take months before new stable higher price BTC will emerge.

well, i am trying to say the same thing, sorry if it was not clear enough.
put the cart before horse means doing things in the wrong order, or expecting effect before cause.

[talks_cheep]

Yeah, I saw a thread where the OP thought price would double due to halving. It doesn't work that way. I still expect to see a new ATH at the end of the year, though.