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Author Topic: store.avalon-asics.com - "prepping for batch #3"  (Read 7656 times)
SolarSilver
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March 20, 2013, 11:03:55 AM
 #61

At 1.500usd it was quite a safe gamble. At +5.000usd the expected value is negative. Unless BFL is a complete scam, and no other player delivers a single ASICs, 90btc is a losing proposal for sure.

At that price I would only buy one if I had hundreds of btc, mined/bought when the exchange rate was much lower. Which unfortunately is not the case.

You have to stop thinking in USD and think in BTC

A batch #1 Avalon cost about BTC 106 when it was paid in September 2012

The question is: how long does it take to earn back the BTC at current difficulty when the machines are delivered?

None of the Batch #1 Avalons (except the first 3) have earned back their value in BTC amount, but they are coming close (mine have earned BTC 78 each by now)

Batch #2 machines were cheaper and Batch #3 machines will be even cheaper, but difficulty will go up dramaticly. If you break even after 100 days, you can be glad. I wish my other investments broke even in 100 days and after that started generating free profit

If you want to look at the USD value, you are way better off to buy BTC and store it for 100 days, you will have a lot more 'profit' that way in USD but you will not have more BTC

What is your game? You want more USD or more BTC? Choose wisely ;-)
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shibaji
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March 20, 2013, 11:08:06 AM
 #62

I really really hope BFL ships soon, otherwise btc will have a real problem soon as (mining) market is more or less controllable by one company (in china) ... which will make it drop really hard as soon as "investors" realize

+infinity

BTC: 1G4FWK6U3qQb2ikgdcYZovLzyQ7xmWotBP  LTC: LUnQFuhQKNjhrsK4HSdcsn6Bf3wcT3tW2y  DVC: 1EKz74j7xNBYunJ77wQVD8DE843PwZaRFF
My reputation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183806.0
Shibaji's Your Man In USA Service: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191303.msg1980889#msg1980889
Rampion
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March 20, 2013, 11:12:17 AM
 #63

At 1.500usd it was quite a safe gamble. At +5.000usd the expected value is negative. Unless BFL is a complete scam, and no other player delivers a single ASICs, 90btc is a losing proposal for sure.

At that price I would only buy one if I had hundreds of btc, mined/bought when the exchange rate was much lower. Which unfortunately is not the case.

You have to stop thinking in USD and think in BTC

A batch #1 Avalon cost about BTC 106 when it was paid in September 2012

The question is: how long does it take to earn back the BTC at current difficulty when the machines are delivered?

None of the Batch #1 Avalons (except the first 3) have earned back their value in BTC amount, but they are coming close (mine have earned BTC 78 each by now)

Batch #2 machines were cheaper and Batch #3 machines will be even cheaper, but difficulty will go up dramaticly. If you break even after 100 days, you can be glad. I wish my other investments broke even in 100 days and after that started generating free profit

If you want to look at the USD value, you are way better off to buy BTC and store it for 100 days, you will have a lot more 'profit' that way in USD but you will not have more BTC

What is your game? You want more USD or more BTC? Choose wisely ;-)

Well, thinking in btc: this has always been a gamble. For batch #1 and batch #2 customers, because they did not know if the units were real. But they knew that if they won that gamble, they would have had a high profit. For batch #3 customers, the bet is on the difficulty. As said earlier: given the current network and the total hashing power that will be deployed ONLY by AVALON, you will get your ROI in 100 days. That's a nice investment. But IF BFL and/or ASICminer deploy more hashing power... Then it's a losing proposal also if you think in BTC.

shibaji
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March 20, 2013, 11:13:18 AM
 #64

What is your game? You want more USD or more BTC? Choose wisely ;-)

Unfortunately, without underlying fiat currency, crypto currency is valueless - until that changes, everyone needs fiat. If you run out of food or shelter, it will be really hard for you to find some now with e-currency.

BTC: 1G4FWK6U3qQb2ikgdcYZovLzyQ7xmWotBP  LTC: LUnQFuhQKNjhrsK4HSdcsn6Bf3wcT3tW2y  DVC: 1EKz74j7xNBYunJ77wQVD8DE843PwZaRFF
My reputation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183806.0
Shibaji's Your Man In USA Service: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191303.msg1980889#msg1980889
SolarSilver
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March 20, 2013, 11:14:39 AM
 #65

As long as there is no competition, they can take any price they want - this is what they do now..

there is plenty of competition, google ASICminer

Quote
I'm thinking they are mining themselves with the units as long as they can before shipping which gives them some extra $ too..

"Bullshit"

Seriously, stop with these stupid assumptions. Where are they mining? Solo mining? On a pool? Which one? You really think people would not notice?

Quote
I really really hope BFL ships soon, otherwise btc will have a real problem soon as (mining) market is more or less controllable by one company (in china) ... which will make it drop really hard as soon as "investors" realize

ASICminer is at least twice as big as Avalon at this point, start trolling their threads ;-)
(both as Chinese though, so as a conspiracy nut, you are onto something)
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