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Author Topic: Bet: Bitcoin to decline below $5 within the next 30 days.  (Read 1427 times)
Anonymous
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June 12, 2011, 03:50:13 AM
 #1

This market will settle at 1 Bitcoin if Bitcoin declines below $5 before the specified time and date.

The market will settle at 0.00 Bitcoins if Bitcoin does not decline below $5 before the specified time and date.

Expiry will be based on official data from Mt. Gox and TradeHill. This market will be settled when a decline is announced. The decline does not need to take effect for the market to be settled.

I am selling shares of this bet at .25 BTC. A share will entitle you to the market rate from the share creator at the end of this bet. If you think this event will occur, buy from me or other sellers. If not, sell your own shares.
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Basiley
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June 12, 2011, 03:55:32 AM
 #2

that's unlikely.
for longer than 8 hours.
ever.
imperi
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June 12, 2011, 03:56:28 AM
 #3

I don't really understand how this works... I just wish there was a button I could press... but I don't think this will happen. There is way too much trade volume compared to last month for it to be worth so low.
Anonymous
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June 12, 2011, 03:57:04 AM
 #4

that's unlikely.
for longer than 8 hours.
ever.
There seems to be people who have very little faith in Bitcoin though.
xenon481
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June 12, 2011, 03:57:17 AM
 #5

Interesting idea......

If 1BTC hits $4.99 and you settle immediately, you have lost the equivalent of $4.99.

If 1 BTC doesn't (within the 30 days) go below $5, then the other person owes you the equivalent of at very least $5.01 and possibly even $30 or $60 or $90.

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Anonymous
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June 12, 2011, 03:59:50 AM
 #6

Interesting idea......

If 1BTC hits $4.99 and you settle immediately, you have lost the equivalent of $4.99.

If 1 BTC doesn't (within the 30 days) go below $5, then the other person owes you the equivalent of at very least $5.01 and possibly even $30 or $60 or $90.
It varies on how much people sell this agreement for. You could sell a share for as little as you want.

It's like this: http://intrade.com/v4/home/
imperi
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June 12, 2011, 04:01:00 AM
 #7

I know that it's workable, but I don't want to calculate math out manually and stuff.
Anonymous
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June 12, 2011, 04:26:41 AM
 #8

I know that it's workable, but I don't want to calculate math out manually and stuff.
There's really not much math involved. It's actually very straightforward. You are just trading the contract above.
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June 12, 2011, 04:30:07 AM
 #9

How do I "trade"?

Send bitcoins to you, make someone send them to me, how do I record it, how do I know they will get redeemed, how do I know how much is redeemed versus how much is sent, etc. It's advanced logic.
Anonymous
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June 12, 2011, 04:40:03 AM
 #10

How do I "trade"?

Send bitcoins to you, make someone send them to me, how do I record it, how do I know they will get redeemed, how do I know how much is redeemed versus how much is sent, etc. It's advanced logic.
Okay, let's say you believe Bitcoin will in fact decline to $5 in the next 30 days. Joe is willing to pay you 1 BTC if this happens and he's selling this privilege for .05 BTC. We call this a share.

Understand now?
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