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Author Topic: When will my f*cking Silver be worth something?  (Read 4555 times)
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March 21, 2013, 11:05:40 PM
 #41

Pro tip whever there is news there is a world wide shortage of anything it means the opposite

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March 21, 2013, 11:20:12 PM
 #42

I don't recall a day this year (not saying there hasn't been one that I didn't notice) where silver was over $30/oz. There is supposedly a worldwide shortage of silver...who woulda thunk it looking at market prices. I love my cool designed rounds and bars, but when will silver really rise? At least consistently past the $30 threshold? It is pretty disturbing to think that we're just about at the point where 1BTC=2 oz Silver!

You made a mistake fragmenting your wealth into illiquid, useless tokens. They will never be worth anything. Expecting silver rounds to make you rich is no different from daydreaming about how your extensive collection of "collectible" plastic dolls or vintage bricks will make you rich.

Precious metals and silver especially have massive handling costs associated with them, which makes the entire thing a novelty/consumer affair, not an investment. As a general rule of thumb, if you're "investing" in silver and your unit is not the metric ton, or if you're "investing" in gold and your unit is not the kilogram you're never going to show a net profit.

Forget about the entire thing, mark it down as yet another one of those cases where you (the naive, clueless, stupid-but-unaware) consumer got fooled by unethical salesmanship into parting with your cash for no benefit whatsoever. Try and learn from it, maybe.
wow. What's the metal bashing all about? Silver and Gold are the No.1 hedges against the upcoming currency collapse. You cannot rely on BTC to save the day - you need to have at least enough metals to make it through a year of unemployment.

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March 22, 2013, 12:53:37 AM
 #43

I don't recall a day this year (not saying there hasn't been one that I didn't notice) where silver was over $30/oz. There is supposedly a worldwide shortage of silver...who woulda thunk it looking at market prices. I love my cool designed rounds and bars, but when will silver really rise? At least consistently past the $30 threshold? It is pretty disturbing to think that we're just about at the point where 1BTC=2 oz Silver!

You made a mistake fragmenting your wealth into illiquid, useless tokens. They will never be worth anything. Expecting silver rounds to make you rich is no different from daydreaming about how your extensive collection of "collectible" plastic dolls or vintage bricks will make you rich.

Precious metals and silver especially have massive handling costs associated with them, which makes the entire thing a novelty/consumer affair, not an investment. As a general rule of thumb, if you're "investing" in silver and your unit is not the metric ton, or if you're "investing" in gold and your unit is not the kilogram you're never going to show a net profit.

Forget about the entire thing, mark it down as yet another one of those cases where you (the naive, clueless, stupid-but-unaware) consumer got fooled by unethical salesmanship into parting with your cash for no benefit whatsoever. Try and learn from it, maybe.

This was very well written.  You spoke/typed this out eloquently.  I can tell that you thought this out, and communicated your thoughts in a way that made your point clear to anyone who bothers to read it.  It is a shame that the point you are making, is one of the most ignorant things I have ever heard.

I do not feel the need to justify my opinion with facts, charts, or historical data.  I assume that you have seen them and chose to dismiss them.  I have been investing in precious metals for almost 15 years and paid off my mortgage with the profit you claim that I will never show.  YOU are the one who is "naive, clueless, stupid-but-unaware".  Please do not give out financial advice.

Perhaps this is a case of selective reading. If your mortgage was anything less than $100,000 then perhaps we live in very different worlds. If your mortgage was more than $100,000 you should perhaps check how many ounces in a metric ton.

To clarify, the statement is

Quote
As a general rule of thumb, if you're "investing" in silver and your unit is not the metric ton, or if you're "investing" in gold and your unit is not the kilogram you're never going to show a net profit.

rather than

Quote
As a general rule of thumb, if you're "investing" in silver or if you're "investing" in gold you're never going to show a net profit.

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March 22, 2013, 01:18:12 AM
 #44

To clarify, the statement is
Quote
As a general rule of thumb, if you're "investing" in silver and your unit is not the metric ton, or if you're "investing" in gold and your unit is not the kilogram you're never going to show a net profit.
Your conclusion escapes my logic. Are you referring to cost of storage or what?

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March 22, 2013, 01:32:43 AM
 #45

I'd be glad to take your crappy, worthless silver for free, so you don't need to worry anymore.
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March 22, 2013, 01:48:08 AM
 #46

You think you own silver?

Probably you mistake. You own a peice of paper where somebody wrote you own a silver.

Paper costs shit.

Actually I have two one-ounce bars of silver in my possession.  I don't buy "shares" or whatever.  If I buy gold/silver, I buy actual bullion.  I don't have enough bitcoins yet to buy an ounce of gold, but I will as soon as I can. Smiley
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March 22, 2013, 02:24:23 AM
 #47

Your conclusion escapes my logic. Are you referring to cost of storage or what?

It's probably the case that it escapes something of yours, but I wouldn't go as far as calling it logic. Let's see.

I. Cost of shipping. If you're mailing a one ounce round and you're paying $5 then you've just added 15% to the spot.

II. Cost of insurance / cost of uninsurable risks. Read this, this etc.

What's your business plan here, order a round, wait for it to show up, if it does show up mark II cost as 0, if it doesn't show up make 500 angry posts in the forum and move on to the next "investment"? This is not logic, this is forum retardation.

III. Cost of proofing. How do you know you've not been sold fake rounds? Oh, you just know. Good for you.

IV. Cost of storage. No, this is not "zero because you just keep it in your drawer". If twenty houses get burglarized in your town each week and there's 10,000 houses in total then a two year storage costs you 20% of your silver. Outright.

IV. Cost of divesting. When you finally want to recoup your so called investment you will have to somehow sell this silver. That means all the steps above in reverse + the fact that whoever is available buying may or may not be interested in your particular format, in your particular volume and may or may not expect a discount. Add it all together, figure out the applicable taxes (plus the cost of fighting the taxman over the always possible miscategorization of your silver income - this is not something you may handwave away but must show as a line in your budget!) and you may be in a position to understand that unless you're talking enough volume the various fixed costs eat you alive.

All this if you have a head for business. If you're just doing the consumer thing and figure "$500 buys me an iPad which is worthless in two years or 12 shiny silver coins which I'll be able to pawn for enough to get ten gallons of gas and five packs of cigs in two years so therefore silver is an investment" then yeah, you couldn't follow my logic if you tried.

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March 22, 2013, 03:29:08 AM
 #48

Your conclusion escapes my logic. Are you referring to cost of storage or what?
It's probably the case that it escapes something of yours, but I wouldn't go as far as calling it logic. Let's see.
bold. You have a talent for alienating yourself.

I. Cost of shipping. , II. Cost of insurance, III. Cost of proofing. , IV. Cost of storage. , IV. Cost of divesting.

All this if you have a head for business. If you're just doing the consumer thing and figure "$500 buys me an iPad which is worthless in two years or 12 shiny silver coins which I'll be able to pawn for enough to get ten gallons of gas and five packs of cigs in two years so therefore silver is an investment" then yeah, you couldn't follow my logic if you tried.
Got it. Yeah, in fact I was referring to the consumer thing.
Your points are all valid. And if you're a business that incurs a huge overhead. Logically that overhead only makes sense if you have a certain volume and expect significant price movements. No wonder that paper gold is so popular - however for the same reason it'll be worthless in case of a crisis.

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March 22, 2013, 02:03:11 PM
 #49

No wonder that paper gold is so popular - however for the same reason it'll be worthless in case of a crisis.

This is certainly true.

Anyway, nothing personal, a certain approach to precious metals just gets my goat. It's not impossible to profit from them as it's not impossible to profit from anything in this world, in principle. Hell, urine was profitable enough two thousand years ago that they had a special tax on it. But you need skills and you need capital to do it, whereas this angle being sold to normal everyday people that "buy $100 worth of silver and you will profit" is just wrong. It's akin to "start your own tomato farm on your windowsill" or in the words of Carlin "how to make money by renting out the space inside your nostrils".

You wanna make money trading silver, you'd better know what you're doing.

(And for the record the catastrophic angle doesn't work either. Sure, if apocalypse hits and there's no more functioning state it would seem silver rounds might make excellent trade items.

However, the presumption that you'll get to keep/be able to use your rounds is weird in that context. If the government couldn't keep itself together you're going to manage to keep yourself glued to your coins? By what process, using what method? If such a method exists why didn't the state use it to preserve itself? You think angry dudes with guns care you bought that silver fair and square 5 years pre-Apocalypse? The peeps SOL'd during Katrina didn't do much silver coin trading. The UAF 571 didn't establish a silver price per pound of human flesh. If most of humanity is wiped we'll spend our time digging through warehouses for salvageable items, not pushing back and forth engraved metal. On it goes.)

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March 22, 2013, 02:36:19 PM
 #50

However, the presumption that you'll get to keep/be able to use your rounds is weird in that context. If the government couldn't keep itself together you're going to manage to keep yourself glued to your coins? By what process, using what method? If such a method exists why didn't the state use it to preserve itself? You think angry dudes with guns care you bought that silver fair and square 5 years pre-Apocalypse? The peeps SOL'd during Katrina didn't do much silver coin trading. The UAF 571 didn't establish a silver price per pound of human flesh. If most of humanity is wiped we'll spend our time digging through warehouses for salvageable items, not pushing back and forth engraved metal. On it goes.)

Though this is one of the things that confuses me about so many preppers... They focus on one potential issue and prepare for that above all others. Maybe it's EMP, maybe it's financial collapse, maybe it's bio/chemical. Some preparations are good for multiple scenarios but often there are some big holes. Personally, I suspect that whatever and whenever it happens, it could be "any of the above" or possibly something no one was expecting. To me it makes sense to work out some core essentials first, have a variety of things that would work for multiple specific scenarios, *then*, if you have time/space/money left over, focus on whatever your hobby horse is (meteor strike, magnetic field reversal, whatever). Durable goods first for sure but having a portable token for exchange is up there too. For me, silver > gold in this scenario, especially with the current price of gold.

Gold, however, is probably a reasonable hedge against financial instability. And god know, that's coming. I think bitcoin > gold for that though.

With all that said, if the zombie apocalypse does happen, enough people will be dead that silver and gold will be easy to come by. Should civilization scrape through, your best bet is likely to be less durable luxury goods that will be hard to come by (decent quality alcohol for example).

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March 22, 2013, 02:48:41 PM
 #51

MPOE-PR, You are an incredibly stupid person to be so well written. Did you have an accident, like a blow to the head?  Something that would cut off blood supply to the area of your brain that uses logic, and social skills.  I suppose that it could be autism. Anyway, nothing personal, a certain approach to expressing your incorrect opinion spiced with insults to anyone that doesn't agree gets my goat.  I could not disagree with you more on this, and I choose to side with history, Ron Paul, and my own personal success with investing in precious metals.  I am not going to waste any more of my energy and time with you.
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March 22, 2013, 03:01:29 PM
 #52

However, the presumption that you'll get to keep/be able to use your rounds is weird in that context. If the government couldn't keep itself together you're going to manage to keep yourself glued to your coins? By what process, using what method? If such a method exists why didn't the state use it to preserve itself? You think angry dudes with guns care you bought that silver fair and square 5 years pre-Apocalypse? The peeps SOL'd during Katrina didn't do much silver coin trading. The UAF 571 didn't establish a silver price per pound of human flesh. If most of humanity is wiped we'll spend our time digging through warehouses for salvageable items, not pushing back and forth engraved metal. On it goes.)

Though this is one of the things that confuses me about so many preppers... They focus on one potential issue and prepare for that above all others. Maybe it's EMP, maybe it's financial collapse, maybe it's bio/chemical. Some preparations are good for multiple scenarios but often there are some big holes. Personally, I suspect that whatever and whenever it happens, it could be "any of the above" or possibly something no one was expecting. To me it makes sense to work out some core essentials first, have a variety of things that would work for multiple specific scenarios, *then*, if you have time/space/money left over, focus on whatever your hobby horse is (meteor strike, magnetic field reversal, whatever). Durable goods first for sure but having a portable token for exchange is up there too. For me, silver > gold in this scenario, especially with the current price of gold.

Gold, however, is probably a reasonable hedge against financial instability. And god know, that's coming. I think bitcoin > gold for that though.

With all that said, if the zombie apocalypse does happen, enough people will be dead that silver and gold will be easy to come by. Should civilization scrape through, your best bet is likely to be less durable luxury goods that will be hard to come by (decent quality alcohol for example).

Metals always have a price. When black Death killed most of the population in some towns, the metals did not buy as much, because there was suddenly 5 times more purchasing media than before. The prices naturally adjusted.

It behooves me why some think that silver or gold is such a bad bet against calamity, that they don't buy *any* even if they could. Never in the history of mankind has it been stupid to have some hidable, portable, liquid Wealth just in case you might need it. Especially as the insurance costs you exactly 0% per annum long term. All the other preparations are of course also prudent and beneficial, but they come with a hefty annual cost. Storing grain etc. costs you easily 5% per annum even if you don't factor in the hassle, replacement cost etc. Also you can't usually buy it at spot, at least here the cost is about 3 times that. Equipment costs space to store and time+money to maintain.

I believe the arrogant dimwits who openly ridicule the owners(hip) of silver and gold are not actually that prepared in other fields either. Perhaps they feel insecure over the fact that they could not buy as much as they wanted, so they hope that they can take what they want with guns.

Disclosure: sold 5000 oz silver today to buy some bitcoin. Still own enough.


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March 22, 2013, 03:04:17 PM
 #53

Bitcoin and PM's should exist in harmony, they complement each other perfectly.

When I see people argue for strictly one or the other I tend to think those people are retarded.
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March 22, 2013, 07:41:08 PM
 #54

Bitcoin and PM's should exist in harmony, they complement each other perfectly.

When I see people argue for strictly one or the other I tend to think those people are retarded.



This sums up my sentiments, thank you  Grin

And to answer OP's question... I thought it was (sorry to use weasel words here) "pretty well known" that JPM and other major financial institutions were engaging in active manipulation to suppress the price of silver. The price won't go up until they stop doing this.

Another reason is naked shorts etc. The price of physical silver is coupled to the price of paper silver. Investors are pretty stupid (in that they actually invest in paper silver) but they aren't so stupid as to not be just a little bit wary that maybe every piece of paper doesn't quite represent the silver it says it does. So the current price is in between what the price of physical silver would be if it were decoupled, and what the price of the paper would be with the same level of uncertainty. Minus the amount that JPM & Friends is able to "suppress" via various methods. Of course, were the paper misrepresentation & naked shorts directly revealed, the price could crash due to investors selling paper silver. At that point the prices of physical and paper silver could decouple as investors might just have learned their lesson. Or not.
BTW my source for all this "information" is random articles on the internet and The Keiser Report. So, no claims as to sauce.
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March 22, 2013, 09:24:02 PM
 #55

I believe the arrogant dimwits

You're new here, and pretty clueless, but a pattern does emerge: you post in threads completely ignoring what is being said while going on about your own take on things. Thusly decoupled from anything of any interest (ie, what the people who aren't new here have to say) the respective barf fails to interest. It also happens to match the definition of both arrogance and dimwittery.

MPOE-PR, You are an incredibly stupid person to be so well written. Did you have an accident, like a blow to the head?  Something that would cut off blood supply to the area of your brain that uses logic, and social skills.  I suppose that it could be autism. Anyway, nothing personal, a certain approach to expressing your incorrect opinion spiced with insults to anyone that doesn't agree gets my goat.  I could not disagree with you more on this, and I choose to side with history, Ron Paul, and my own personal success with investing in precious metals.  I am not going to waste any more of my energy and time with you.

You ain't laughin' now, are ye.

Bitcoin and PM's should exist in harmony, they complement each other perfectly.

When I see people argue for strictly one or the other I tend to think those people are retarded.

You know, the discussion here isn't at all about precious metals. The discussion here is about when the OP's five rounds "will be worth something". The answer to that is never, pretty much.

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March 22, 2013, 10:11:13 PM
 #56

I believe the arrogant dimwits
You're new here, and pretty clueless, but a pattern does emerge: you post in threads completely ignoring what is being said while going on about your own take on things. Thusly decoupled from anything of any interest (ie, what the people who aren't new here have to say) the respective barf fails to interest. It also happens to match the definition of both arrogance and dimwittery.

Pick one that suits your mood best:
- Being new here obviously nullifies my 7y full time experience on PM's, own TV show, first book in Finnish about PM investing, etc, etc, and especially makes me incapable of saying anything of value concerning the topic of this thread.
- Seriously, is he paying you for making sure that he through various proxies will ever remain the sole shareholder of the MP-"exchange" whose "valuation" is $50 million and counting. No wonder I did not find any shares to short in the open market  Grin
- Looking at your latest 20 posts, there were 19 oneliners but you expended 3 lines on me. I'm flattered. Soon you will ask me on a date, but I will need to decline, since I have a wife, and a kid, and I am busy enough buying bitcoins in BitStamp, so that I don't need to sell pr0n to obtain them.
- LOL, I thought you put me on ignore, 'cause I did not hear from you in 12 hours. Maybe you just do sleep at times...
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March 22, 2013, 11:46:48 PM
 #57

Sounds like the OP expected silver to have risen in value by now because "Buffet's going to need a lot of silver for his solar energy projects".


All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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March 23, 2013, 01:42:04 AM
 #58

Sounds like the OP expected silver to have risen in value by now because "Buffet's going to need a lot of silver for his solar energy projects".

Up! Up! UP!

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March 23, 2013, 02:08:23 AM
 #59

MPOE-PR, I tend to agree with you when you go on rants here, especially when you talk about the client's lack of protocol spec and other important things that most people ignore. But here, I don't know, are you just plain stupid? Your assessment (of the magnitude of silver required to generate a profit), although you may not realize it, is almost completely based on your personal expectations of a realistic rise in silver price in the indefinite future.

You say that based on calculations such as the risk of holding physical silver, the loss when selling to a vendor, cost of verifying authenticity of the silver etc - I won't make a profit unless I invest with a certain order of magnitude i.e. metric tonnes. This makes sense, sure if I buy gram of silver for 100% above spot and silver goes up $25 in 6 months I've still lost money.
What if I buy 100 ozt of silver for $2800 and in a few years it hits Max's target of $150/ozt? I don't care what you're deducting (so long as it's reasonable) for risk of holding, verification, eventual sales to a sketchy vendor giving me 10% below spot - I just made quite a bit of money. Now, feel free to pull some random figures out of your ass to show that I actually lost money. Maybe I bought a $10,000 underground safe to store $2800 of silver? Whatever it takes. The reason people here with years of experience in precious metals, people who have made significant amounts of profit from PMs, are laughing at you, is because they have personally experienced turning a rather large profit from PMs so it's easy to see that you're full of shit.

Not to mention we're removing, say, 20% (magic number?) from the value because of risk of theft - of COURSE that [deduction class, not amount] is a legitimate deduction, but (1) you are not an actuary (2) you pulled that number out of your ass. In my neighborhood I do not have a 20% chance of my silver getting stolen. But then what if I live in a secluded lot in the middle of the woods and I bury my silver in a hole deep in the ground? Any actuary would reduce my expected risk for the same reason that teenage girls pay more for car insurance (because statistically they can't drive.) There's a lot more to it than just looking at the home burglary rate. How many home burglars don't even find the PMs and just take the plasma TV? I know there is a legitimate risk that must be deducted from the value, but I question your seemingly random (but high enough to support your outrageously inaccurate conclusion) figures... 

And of course there's the "doomsday scenario" in which you conveniently explain away any possibility that silver might be used as a currency for even a short time. What about the multiple examples of countries where some citizens have turned to PMs during times of hyperinflation? What about the thousands of years in the past where PMs were used as currency? IDK, seems like you are just making this stuff up.
QFT:
Quote from: humanitee
Bitcoin and PM's should exist in harmony, they complement each other perfectly.

When I see people argue for strictly one or the other I tend to think those people are retarded.
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March 23, 2013, 09:22:44 AM
 #60

What if I buy 100 ozt of silver for $2800 and in a few years it hits Max's target of $150/ozt?

Well, that's why it's called a "rule of thumb" now isn't it. It's not precise, it's only intended to give a taste & feel of whereabouts the correct solution lies.

In fact there's statistical methods to calculate the relative odds of success based on the standard deviations you need. For instance if your holdings need a 1-sigma event in order to become profitable then here's the odds for that - and they can be factored directly into your profit regarded as an EV of sorts. If your holdings need 3-sigmas that's significantly less likely and so therefore significantly less probable profit. On it goes.

My ass may be big, but it's not this magical place I pull figures out of to show you that a definitely good purchase was not a good purchase. I'm just saying that if you're stuck there sitting on something you bought as an investment but without a plan and are wondering "when do I hit the jackpot on these magic beans"...well...they ain't magic beans and you ain't no investor. This should be pretty obvious, not sure why people got suddenly too big-butted for their undies allovasudden.

The reason people here with years of experience in precious metals, people who have made significant amounts of profit from PMs, are laughing at you, is because they have personally experienced turning a rather large profit from PMs so it's easy to see that you're full of shit.

I don't see anyone laughing, I see laughingbear about to pop an aneurysm over what he thinks he read rather than what I actually wrote. Which is no crime incidentally, tomorrow he calms down, re-reads and chills out.

Not to mention we're removing, say, 20% (magic number?) from the value because of risk of theft - of COURSE that [deduction class, not amount] is a legitimate deduction, but (1) you are not an actuary (2) you pulled that number out of your ass.

Sure did. I did show what's the rationale for it in order to help people understand how it works and why, but no I'm no actuary and it was again not intended specifically. Rule of thumb defense, learn to love it.

And of course there's the "doomsday scenario" in which you conveniently explain away any possibility that silver might be used as a currency for even a short time. What about the multiple examples of countries where some citizens have turned to PMs during times of hyperinflation?

I'm not saying it's impossible. I am saying it's by no means a given. There's an important difference here, about of the breadth of the difference between "it being possible there exists a god" and "being Catholic".

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