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Author Topic: I am planning to buy Avalon batch 3..is batch 3 invitations only?  (Read 6325 times)
Rodyland
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March 20, 2013, 09:52:47 AM
 #21

At that price, given the current exchange rate, I'm seriously reconsidering my desire to buy a batch 3 miner.  I'd be more inclined to simply put the cash that I do have (and not enough to buy a batch 3) into btc and hold on.

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March 20, 2013, 09:56:05 AM
 #22

At that price, given the current exchange rate, I'm seriously reconsidering my desire to buy a batch 3 miner.  I'd be more inclined to simply put the cash that I do have (and not enough to buy a batch 3) into btc and hold on.

The expected value of buying btc and holding is much higher than buying an AVALON batch #3 unit at +5.000usd.

At 1.500usd it was uncertain, but at least ROI was feasible and mining has other incentives (securing the network, etc.). But at +5000usd? NO WAY.

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March 20, 2013, 10:11:13 AM
 #23

At that price, given the current exchange rate, I'm seriously reconsidering my desire to buy a batch 3 miner.  I'd be more inclined to simply put the cash that I do have (and not enough to buy a batch 3) into btc and hold on.

The expected value of buying btc and holding is much higher than buying an AVALON batch #3 unit at +5.000usd.

At 1.500usd it was uncertain, but at least ROI was feasible and mining has other incentives (securing the network, etc.). But at +5000usd? NO WAY.

I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling this.  As much as I want to support btc, at this price I'm afraid my support will be limited to buying stuff using btc when I can.  It's a shame, because I _want_ to support the network.

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March 20, 2013, 10:16:12 AM
 #24


I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling this.  As much as I want to support btc, at this price I'm afraid my support will be limited to buying stuff using btc when I can.  It's a shame, because I _want_ to support the network.

BTC pricing is fine - the problem is merchant product pricing. They should adjust BTC price according to fiat value. All these discussion about avalon batch 3 originated from the static page someone found. However, if avalon actually adjusts the BTC price taking care of the market value, that should do it.

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

BTC: 1G4FWK6U3qQb2ikgdcYZovLzyQ7xmWotBP  LTC: LUnQFuhQKNjhrsK4HSdcsn6Bf3wcT3tW2y  DVC: 1EKz74j7xNBYunJ77wQVD8DE843PwZaRFF
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March 20, 2013, 10:25:16 AM
 #25

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbbs.btcman.com%2Fforum.php%3Fmod%3Dviewthread%26tid%3D1550%26extra%3Dpage%253D1

As quoted from chinese forum the price WILL BE between 88-115 BTC.
So with BFL on the way it wont be profitable. Better to invest in BTC.
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March 20, 2013, 10:33:37 AM
 #26

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbbs.btcman.com%2Fforum.php%3Fmod%3Dviewthread%26tid%3D1550%26extra%3Dpage%253D1

As quoted from chinese forum the price WILL BE between 88-115 BTC.
So with BFL on the way it wont be profitable. Better to invest in BTC.

Funny thing is that they say 90 btc is estimated on "reasonably expected ROI". Yeah, "reasonably expected" if BFL is a scam, no other player delivers ANY ASIC in 2013, and ASICminer does not deploy any more THs.

Even if all the above turns out to be true and AVALON is the only company deploying ASICs from now on, the ROI will be in aprox. 3 months. And believing that all the points above are true is a +5.000usd bet I'm not willing to take.

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March 20, 2013, 10:55:03 AM
 #27

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbbs.btcman.com%2Fforum.php%3Fmod%3Dviewthread%26tid%3D1550%26extra%3Dpage%253D1

As quoted from chinese forum the price WILL BE between 88-115 BTC.
So with BFL on the way it wont be profitable. Better to invest in BTC.

Funny thing is that they say 90 btc is estimated on "reasonably expected ROI". Yeah, "reasonably expected" if BFL is a scam, no other player delivers ANY ASIC in 2013, and ASICminer does not deploy any more THs.

Even if all the above turns out to be true and AVALON is the only company deploying ASICs from now on, the ROI will be in aprox. 3 months. And believing that all the points above are true is a +5.000usd bet I'm not willing to take.

For me you've nailed it.  For one, they are now gouging us because they can, selling a product that was profitable for $1500 for $6000, and that just feels wrong to me as a customer.  And for two, they are taking out a huge chunk of batch 3 miner profits through this price increase, while the batch 3 miners are still wearing all the uncertainty and risk (risk of adverse btc movement, risk of BFL shipping, risk of huge difficulty increase, risk of ASICminer doubling up, risk of another player bringing something to market).

Beware the weak hands!
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March 20, 2013, 11:03:32 AM
 #28

I'd buy one for $5k but only if I knew I'd receive it within a few days and they wouldn't ship more than a few hundred. But if it's going to take another month to ship batch 3, forget it, at that price.

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March 20, 2013, 11:12:09 AM
 #29

Love when people throw around numbers like "3 month" randomly without any math.

the current difficulty is a little below 5,000,000, which a three module Avalon will produce ~6 BTC a day under these conditions.

Let's see how "3 month" ROI actually looks like.

If difficulty raises to 30,000,000 each three module Avalon will produce 1 BTC a day, enabling a break-even in 90 days.

So yes, if you think we are going to get a 6x difficulty increase between now and May, let's even say June! then by all means, please don't purchase Avalon, because I wouldn't.

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March 20, 2013, 11:14:18 AM
 #30

For one, they are now gouging us because they can, selling a product that was profitable for $1500 for $6000, and that just feels wrong to me as a customer.  And for two, they are taking out a huge chunk of batch 3 miner profits through this price increase, while the batch 3 miners are still wearing all the uncertainty and risk (risk of adverse btc movement, risk of BFL shipping, risk of huge difficulty increase, risk of ASICminer doubling up, risk of another player bringing something to market).

Oh, pleeeeeease, cry me a river.  Roll Eyes This free market is exactly what you people were screaming for all the time. This is exactly what you wanted. You made the soup, now eat it.
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March 20, 2013, 11:15:36 AM
 #31

Love when people throw around numbers like "3 month" randomly without any math.

the current difficulty is a little below 5,000,000, which a three module Avalon will produce ~6 BTC a day under these conditions.

Let's see how "3 month" ROI actually looks like.

If difficulty raises to 30,000,000 each three module Avalon will produce 1 BTC a day, enabling a break-even in 90 days.

So yes, if you think we are going to get a 6x difficulty increase between now and May then by all means, please don't purchase Avalon.


Well, how many units do you plan to deploy summing up batchs 1, 2 and 3? That's 67GHs x 1500 units, correct? Doesn't that take difficulty at least to 3x, counting that no other player (not BFL, not ASICminer, not others) starts deploying/delivering ASICs?

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March 20, 2013, 11:21:22 AM
 #32

Love when people throw around numbers like "3 month" randomly without any math.

the current difficulty is a little below 5,000,000, which a three module Avalon will produce ~6 BTC a day under these conditions.

Let's see how "3 month" ROI actually looks like.

If difficulty raises to 30,000,000 each three module Avalon will produce 1 BTC a day, enabling a break-even in 90 days.

So yes, if you think we are going to get a 6x difficulty increase between now and May then by all means, please don't purchase Avalon.


Well, how many units do you plan to deploy summing up batchs 1, 2 and 3? That's 67GHs x 1500 units, correct? Doesn't that take difficulty at least to 3x, counting that no other player (not BFL, not ASICminer, not others) starts deploying/delivering ASICs?

yes of course, AMD can release 23nm ASIC middle of May!

If you wish to shoulder the risks then by all means buy it, if you do not, then don't. Honestly if we wanted to min-max on profit we wouldn't have sold any. All Avalon is doing is offering people a chance to take this investment.

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March 20, 2013, 11:23:31 AM
 #33

For one, they are now gouging us because they can, selling a product that was profitable for $1500 for $6000, and that just feels wrong to me as a customer.  And for two, they are taking out a huge chunk of batch 3 miner profits through this price increase, while the batch 3 miners are still wearing all the uncertainty and risk (risk of adverse btc movement, risk of BFL shipping, risk of huge difficulty increase, risk of ASICminer doubling up, risk of another player bringing something to market).

Oh, pleeeeeease, cry me a river.  Roll Eyes This free market is exactly what you people were screaming for all the time. This is exactly what you wanted. You made the soup, now eat it.

Free market, Avalon can do what they want, and we can buy or not buy.  But those of us who would like to buy but find the product to expensive are free to complain.  And Avalon are free to ignore.  And you are free to buy anyway. 

Beware the weak hands!
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March 20, 2013, 11:26:04 AM
 #34


Free market, Avalon can do what they want, and we can buy or not buy.  But those of us who would like to buy but find the product to expensive are free to complain.  And Avalon are free to ignore.  And you are free to buy anyway. 

Amen

BTC: 1G4FWK6U3qQb2ikgdcYZovLzyQ7xmWotBP  LTC: LUnQFuhQKNjhrsK4HSdcsn6Bf3wcT3tW2y  DVC: 1EKz74j7xNBYunJ77wQVD8DE843PwZaRFF
My reputation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183806.0
Shibaji's Your Man In USA Service: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191303.msg1980889#msg1980889
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March 20, 2013, 11:27:23 AM
 #35

For one, they are now gouging us because they can, selling a product that was profitable for $1500 for $6000, and that just feels wrong to me as a customer.  And for two, they are taking out a huge chunk of batch 3 miner profits through this price increase, while the batch 3 miners are still wearing all the uncertainty and risk (risk of adverse btc movement, risk of BFL shipping, risk of huge difficulty increase, risk of ASICminer doubling up, risk of another player bringing something to market).

Oh, pleeeeeease, cry me a river.  Roll Eyes This free market is exactly what you people were screaming for all the time. This is exactly what you wanted. You made the soup, now eat it.

Free market, Avalon can do what they want, and we can buy or not buy.  But those of us who would like to buy but find the product to expensive are free to complain.  And Avalon are free to ignore.  And you are free to buy anyway. 


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March 20, 2013, 11:35:53 AM
 #36



BTC pricing is fine - the problem is merchant product pricing. They should adjust BTC price according to fiat value. All these discussion about avalon batch 3 originated from the static page someone found. However, if avalon actually adjusts the BTC price taking care of the market value, that should do it.

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

The post in question states

Quote
In accordance with the the 360 yuan = 1BTC exchange rates, the RMB price between 31680-41400 yuan, shipping extra.

360 yuan is almost USD 58 - a price BTC touched today.  The post was made today.

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1550&extra=page%3D1

All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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March 20, 2013, 11:38:02 AM
 #37



BTC pricing is fine - the problem is merchant product pricing. They should adjust BTC price according to fiat value. All these discussion about avalon batch 3 originated from the static page someone found. However, if avalon actually adjusts the BTC price taking care of the market value, that should do it.

For example, someone also mentioned the 88BTC - 115BTC price is taking BTC value at usd 20. If that is computed accordingly, things would be fine.

The post in question states

Quote
In accordance with the the 360 yuan = 1BTC exchange rates, the RMB price between 31680-41400 yuan, shipping extra.

360 yuan is almost USD 58 - a price BTC touched today.  The post was made today.

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1550&extra=page%3D1

Yes, I know, this was the second post made confirming the price. I have seen the confirmation afterwards - and the above reply was before I had seen that.

BTC: 1G4FWK6U3qQb2ikgdcYZovLzyQ7xmWotBP  LTC: LUnQFuhQKNjhrsK4HSdcsn6Bf3wcT3tW2y  DVC: 1EKz74j7xNBYunJ77wQVD8DE843PwZaRFF
My reputation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183806.0
Shibaji's Your Man In USA Service: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191303.msg1980889#msg1980889
Rodyland
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March 20, 2013, 11:38:23 AM
 #38




I don't get it.  All I can say is "bring on the free market competition".  Come on BFL.  Come on whoever else is out there and has been sniffing around BTC.

There is a very real chance that someone who splashes out 88btc on an Avalon batch 3 unit is going to get burned, given the estimated time to delivery.  In the end it is up to each and every one of us to decide the risk of the network hash rate going up by a factor of, say, 10 in the next 3 to 6 months, and weigh it up compared to the reward if it doesn't.

Beware the weak hands!
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Wayne_Chang
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March 20, 2013, 11:56:45 AM
 #39

Estimated price of batch #3 is 88BTC to 115BTC base on current exchanging price. NGZhang already mentioned.
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March 20, 2013, 12:02:42 PM
 #40

what is with batch 2 trade-in?

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