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Author Topic: Will the bubble burst?  (Read 4674 times)
jwzguy
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March 22, 2013, 12:32:06 AM
 #61

Isn't the value of something always depending on offer and demand? Right now there is a lot more offer than demand which is a problem, and could lead to a crash. If everyone realizes that they have huge piles of coins and no way to transfer them to goods or other currencies, that could drive the price down. The way to ensure BTC's future is to see many more companies start accepting payment in BTC.

Right now there is a lot more demand than supply.
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rudeguy
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March 22, 2013, 12:40:30 AM
 #62

Isn't the value of something always depending on offer and demand? Right now there is a lot more offer than demand which is a problem, and could lead to a crash. If everyone realizes that they have huge piles of coins and no way to transfer them to goods or other currencies, that could drive the price down. The way to ensure BTC's future is to see many more companies start accepting payment in BTC.

Right now there is a lot more demand than supply.

Do you think this is because people are holding onto their BTC?

I picture those with large btc wallets holding onto them waiting for the time to sell, which is always tomorrow with BTC's value increasing. IMO, that is a likely reason supply is low.

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March 22, 2013, 12:42:07 AM
 #63

btc has many things going for it
  • It is established, trusted and accepted on the internet
    It is the easiest way to access black market activity anonymously, such as weapons, drugs, Botnets, adult content
    IT makes it legal to gamble online in the us (and probly others) This is a big plus
    It is deflationary, meant that it is designed to keep rising,
    just as the USD once was backed by gold, btc is backed by electricity costs

One thing holding it back, is the fact that you cant use credit card or paypal to buy it


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rudeguy
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March 22, 2013, 12:48:17 AM
 #64

btc has many things going for it
  • It is established, trusted and accepted on the internet
    It is the easiest way to access black market activity anonymously, such as weapons, drugs, Botnets, adult content
    IT makes it legal to gamble online in the us (and probly others) This is a big plus
    It is deflationary, meant that it is designed to keep rising,
    just as the USD once was backed by gold, btc is backed by electricity costs

One thing holding it back, is the fact that you cant use credit card or paypal to buy it



I'm interested in what you mean by BTC being backed by electricity costs? I understand that mining uses power, how does power (and its cost) back it?

There are ways to buy btc with a credit card.
bitsil
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March 22, 2013, 01:32:41 AM
 #65

I wonder if one factor with the current bubble is the difficulty in cashing out because of withdraw limits at exchanges. There are still a lot of early adopters/investors sitting on a ton of coins that are very difficult to actually sell. For example, MTGox has a $10,000 USD monthly withdraw limit. If you wanted to sell $1million USD worth of bitcoins it would take 8 years to withdraw it. I'm thinking this could be preventing a sell-off and once those limitations are removed, I expect a major correction. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $15/BTC at some point once these sorts of restrictions are removed. Right now I suspect many are only selling as much BTC as they can withdraw which artificially limits the supply since I suspect there might be a lot of people dying to sell right now.

/$0.02

One doesn't need Mt Gox to sell $1M in btc.  One just needs to find a buyer.  Meet in person to exchange, or wire money to escrow.  8 years to sell through Mt Gox?  Let's use our imagination just a wee bit.   

And I seriously doubt that Mt Gox monthly limits are what's limiting sellers right now.  You don't sell in masse into price appreciation.  The herd sells on the way down.  Who's had time to even think about selling in the last 4 days.  It's shot straight up.  This said, I'd really like to see a move back to the $50 range, so I can exchange fiat for btc at a much more favorable rate. 

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March 22, 2013, 02:07:03 AM
 #66

I guess it will keep fluctuating until it is a widely accepted currency, hopefully it wont take too many more years to be accepted but who knows. I would like a bitcoin bank card to be able to withdraw cash instantly, anyone know if this is being developed? Cheers.

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rm187
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March 22, 2013, 05:56:45 AM
 #67

At this point it just seems like panic buying

Some of it is. You cought me!

I'v been following bitcoin for years. Not like I have the past few months. But Is something I always checked up on. There are many ppl like me who seen the recent changed and realize even if this is a bubble, long term its going up.

If you compere the network hashrate and the BTC/USD, the charts are relatively the same.

Long as people don't abandon bitcoin for trade, we are looking at a new era of monetary systems. Much how the internet changed technology. or fighter jets revolutionized air-warfare.

For 21-28yr olds with 12+ hours a day on a computer, if you arnt getting what u can into bitcoins. I don't know wtf is wrong with your logic. We are due for a correction, Avalon has created a bubble but I think its not going to be noticed or fall d/t the world financial stage and other factors.

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nubaincidem
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March 22, 2013, 07:21:08 AM
 #68

Regardless of a possible burst bubble (which I highly doubt!), I've made quite a bit of money in the run-up. What is very possible though, is a is what we see often in bull markets, and that would be a correction. Market corrections can be between 5-20%. What I'm seeing too, is the USD strengthening against major currencies because of the steam the economy is picking up. This can negatively impact BTC-USD trading. But like I said, at the moment I'd value the BTC at >$60USD at the very least. Interest in the market is picking up, block rewards are 25btc instead of 50, and economic conditions are favorable for investment -- increasing demand! I've got $80 limit sells, and $57.50 stop loss. i invested originally at $14.00-14.50.  I'm good. ahha
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March 22, 2013, 10:14:04 AM
 #69

Well, basically we hope for it to be a bubble, right? because buying BTC at $70 feels so wrong.
Friends of mine joked about another earthquake in japan might have an influence on the price because mt.gox is located there. That is an interesting question, I think.
Still, I actually don't see how the price could drop back to a new rock bottom. as soon as it'd be down to $30-$40 we all would buy like crazy, right?
tbh I was astonished to see what little effect the recent chainfork - the worst case scenario of bitcoin - had on the price.
It seems that bitcoins are trusted in. they're here to stay and people understand that. so yeah, in the long term prices will go up. But I hope for a price drop without people in good old japan being harmed Wink

tl;dr: we hope its a bubble, but its probably not.
pangu
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March 22, 2013, 01:13:29 PM
 #70

Still, I actually don't see how the price could drop back to a new rock bottom. as soon as it'd be down to $30-$40 we all would buy like crazy, right?
interesting point!

sclek
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March 22, 2013, 06:54:37 PM
 #71

I have a feeling that if it does burst it will not drop below $20... If it does burst you will see me buying coins like crazy!
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March 22, 2013, 07:11:42 PM
 #72

My opinion; once BTC plateaus for more than a week or so it will end up dropping when investors think the value has stalled and they will get anxious to cash in before the drop happens.
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March 22, 2013, 07:30:02 PM
 #73

The other day I read an article that compared bitcoin with gold. I think it will take a while for the price of bitcoin to get stable, and I guess it will be a bumpy ride. But i don't think the bubble will burst completely.

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prespendwindfall
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March 22, 2013, 07:35:49 PM
 #74

The price has just been increasing the last few weeks.  Wish I had joined earlier.  The more people who flock to bitcoin and use it consistently will only make it that much more solid.  Sure it might be a bubble, get hacked terribly or have something else monkey wrench it.  But for me I decided I just wanted to be a part of this cool development.  I will have the street credit to be able to say I was an early adopter.  If this thing really really succeeds, then the fact I saw it, got involved, will be worth far more to me than any of the miniscule money I can invest right now.  What I do invest will be for the long haul.  This really sounds like it could become the next big thing.  Too bad I am 2 years or so late.

dendory
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March 22, 2013, 07:37:58 PM
 #75

Just like Twitter took off when 'normal' people started using it and advertising their Twitter handles, Bitcoin will really take off when you can buy from 'normal' stores like Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc..

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deathcode
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March 22, 2013, 08:06:12 PM
 #76

Just like Twitter took off when 'normal' people started using it and advertising their Twitter handles, Bitcoin will really take off when you can buy from 'normal' stores like Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc..


+1

pennyfx
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March 22, 2013, 08:46:07 PM
 #77

Yes it's a bubble the will keep growing.   It's by design.  I think that FRC has a more flexible algorithm that encourages spending versus hoarding.  Also lost bitcoins can't ever be reclaimed.  The coins outstanding are going to keep decreasing, thus causing more scarcity and a higher price.
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March 22, 2013, 11:40:45 PM
 #78

It seems that bitcoins are trusted in. they're here to stay and people understand that. so yeah, in the long term prices will go up.

So there is not reason to spend BTC by this logic, thats why I call it bubble. Many believe they will get rich this way, but in real world this happens very rarely.

There are at least two problems with Bitcoin:
- max 10 transaction / second  = cannot compete with current payment methods
- easy to do laundering / support terrorist = probably will be banned in future by goverments

iorrus
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March 22, 2013, 11:44:33 PM
 #79

Yes it is a bubble that will crash but it is difficult to predict the long term price, so in five years who knows?
sx1234
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March 23, 2013, 12:11:27 AM
 #80



As for will the bubble burst, I would say almost certainly yes, as most speculative investment bubbles do. The problem is knowing when that correction will come, and how big will it be. For example it could come say at $200, and you'd still make a lot of money buying in now. That's the fun part of investing, or I should say speculation.


Good points! As a matter of fact, loosing investment opportunity due to slow wire transfers is itself a good illustration of the need for a currency like bitcoin. How is it possible for banks to use 3-4 days on a transfer. Do the travel personally bringing the money over to Japan?? (no, that would have been faster)
 

Funny you say that, when I sent the wire it was around 50, when I could trade it was 71..  stinks..

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