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Author Topic: Bitcoin bubble crash @ 100$ Summer of 2013?  (Read 8960 times)
gollum
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March 21, 2013, 10:49:54 AM
 #1

If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?
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March 21, 2013, 10:57:53 AM
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great so just a few months for some cheap coin

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March 21, 2013, 11:14:13 AM
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great so just a few months for some cheap coin

Don't hold your breath Smiley
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March 21, 2013, 11:23:26 AM
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But what if it goes to $500 and crashes to $100? Wink

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March 21, 2013, 11:23:31 AM
 #5

If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?
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March 21, 2013, 11:28:34 AM
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If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?

Yep, but we're probably at the ATH right now-ish.
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March 21, 2013, 11:30:22 AM
 #7

Summer of 2013??? There's a very real possibility of us reaching $100 in a day or two....

Seriously, we're about to break $70.... only 10.1k to go, and when we get through that... Huh Resistance looks a lot less than when we were at $47.

No chance of an 80% drop right now either, huge buying pressure.

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March 21, 2013, 11:35:48 AM
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If the bubble bursts in June 2013 it will be way higher than $100. I'd guess $300 but then again I think it's more likely this will be over sooner.
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March 21, 2013, 11:36:39 AM
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quick question, what do you mean "Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up" might? that ship has sailed  Grin
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March 21, 2013, 11:40:22 AM
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Next week lots of People involved in Cyprus will get in to BTC next week wil be very intresting mark my words on this.... Wink

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March 21, 2013, 11:49:37 AM
 #11

I think there will be a significant drop when the price hits $100, not permanent or anything below $60 and I don't think it will take long to get back up to/above $100. The price isn't going back below $20, there are too many people waiting for a big price drop so they can buy in, and nobody has the guts or patience to let it drop more than $5-$10 at once before they get excited and buy in causing the price to rocket back up. People with the mentality of "I'm waiting for a huge crash so I can buy BTC at $1!!!" are blind and think they are the only person with this clever plan.
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March 21, 2013, 12:06:38 PM
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If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?

Yep, but we're probably at the ATH right now-ish.

No, no, Proudhon, your ATH was 14.7, remember? Oh, wait...
gollum
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March 21, 2013, 12:09:22 PM
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I think there will be a significant drop when the price hits $100, not permanent or anything below $60 and I don't think it will take long to get back up to/above $100. The price isn't going back below $20, there are too many people waiting for a big price drop so they can buy in, and nobody has the guts or patience to let it drop more than $5-$10 at once before they get excited and buy in causing the price to rocket back up. People with the mentality of "I'm waiting for a huge crash so I can buy BTC at $1!!!" are blind and think they are the only person with this clever plan.

Thats true but this bitcoin rally reminds me of the gold rally of 2011 where Gold reached ATH @ 1921$ / ounce.
At some point the market dont have enough money and psychology to push it higher. 1$ is very unlikely and nothing to hope for - that would mean bitcoin is dying.
But a retracement to 20-30$ seems very likely and is not bearish for the longer term prospects of bitcoin.

If Bitcoin really becomes the no 1 internet payment solution for millions of people it means bitcoin should be worth as much as the money supply of a banana republic.
Maybe something like 10 billion dollars = 500$/BTC.
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March 21, 2013, 12:13:36 PM
 #14

We won't get lower than 32$, that support has been tested several times, consider it the new bottom. I think a flash crash may happen, and be stopped by the 50$ support, to then bounce to low $60s.

Anyways these are numbers pulled out of my ass
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March 21, 2013, 12:13:42 PM
 #15

Yep, but we're probably at the ATH right now-ish.

Suggestion for drinking game: Take a shot every time Proudhon uses the word "probably"

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March 21, 2013, 12:14:34 PM
 #16

It will only crash if serious bad news comes in. Otherwise, there is no other way but up with perhaps temporary hickups or horizontal movements allowing the market to catch up with the breakneck speed.

It would take REALLY bad news. The recent problems with the fork chain didn't do it.
A gov ban on bitcoin would have some effect, but the recently issued finCEN ruling actually shows that an US ban is not imminent, providing further support for BTC going mainstream.

I really don't see any good reason it should stop at $100 or thereafter. Maybe a little delay, as we saw at $50. Then up, next stops $200 or $250 (3 weeks), then $500 (somtime in may), then $1000 (during the summer).
gollum
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March 21, 2013, 12:16:38 PM
 #17

It will only crash if serious bad news comes in. Otherwise, there is no other way but up with perhaps temporary hickups or horizontal movements allowing the market to catch up with the breakneck speed.

It would take REALLY bad news. The recent problems with the fork chain didn't do it.
A gov ban on bitcoin would have some effect, but the recently issued finCEN ruling actually shows that an US ban is not imminent, providing further support for BTC going mainstream.

I really don't see any good reason it should stop at $100 or thereafter. Maybe a little delay, as we saw at $50. Then up, next stops $200 or $250 (3 weeks), then $500 (somtime in may), then $1000 (during the summer).

Then 10,000 and then 100,000 and so on...  Sky is the limit right?
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March 21, 2013, 12:17:49 PM
 #18

It will only crash if serious bad news comes in. Otherwise, there is no other way but up with perhaps temporary hickups or horizontal movements allowing the market to catch up with the breakneck speed.

It would take REALLY bad news. The recent problems with the fork chain didn't do it.
A gov ban on bitcoin would have some effect, but the recently issued finCEN ruling actually shows that an US ban is not imminent, providing further support for BTC going mainstream.

I really don't see any good reason it should stop at $100 or thereafter. Maybe a little delay, as we saw at $50. Then up, next stops $200 or $250 (3 weeks), then $500 (somtime in may), then $1000 (during the summer).

I think this is remarkably prescient.

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March 21, 2013, 12:33:04 PM
 #19

It would take REALLY bad news. The recent problems with the fork chain didn't do it.
A gov ban on bitcoin would have some effect, but the recently issued finCEN ruling actually shows that an US ban is not imminent, providing further support for BTC going mainstream.

"War on 'Coin" just doesn't have the same selling power as "War on Drugs" or "War on Terror", somehow. Grin

Also, IMO (and that of some others), even if they could ban Bitcoin, it would only push the price down in the very short term. Banning things often draws more attention to them and makes them a lot more desirable and profitable than if they were legal (drugs).

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I really don't see any good reason it should stop at $100 or thereafter. Maybe a little delay, as we saw at $50. Then up, next stops $200 or $250 (3 weeks), then $500 (somtime in may), then $1000 (during the summer).

If it reaches $1k/BTC before the start of the boreal summer (May/June time), I'm definitely selling. I'll probably buy LTC or gold though before bankster paper.

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March 21, 2013, 01:52:22 PM
 #20

...
Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.
...
What do you think?


I think you're misunderstanding many things, but primarily the fact that the "parabolic correction" crash in 2011 was from $32 to $17, so 47%. The continued slide to $2 over the next 6 months was because of a massive confidence loss in the ecosystem due to repeated hacks and scams.

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