Bitcoin bubble crash @ 100$ Summer of 2013?

[RodeoX]

...
Anyways these are numbers pulled out of my ass

As are all the numbers on this board.

[BitPirate]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

[mccorvic]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

BitPirate is a smart fella

[gollum]

Statistically speaking bitcoin should cost anywhere between 20$ and 150$ this year because of its history of high volatility - and between 500 and 1000$ within a couple of years if it really becomes a paypal-killer for small transactions.

I try to not have opinions when analyzing stock market or any market, but instead look more at the numbers. Regardless of what happens to the price of BitCoin I will stay long, but if we get a sudden dip of 30-50-80% I will of course buy the dip and add to my investment for the longer term.

[gollum]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

There are people making millions of dollars reading the chart using technical analysis. Bitcoin is of course more of a wild-west and the information you get from bitCoin is much less statistical reliable than EurUsd. But still you get some clue when you see tha chart go up like a hocky-stick... a crash is inevitable - but who knows from which level?

[BitPirate]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

There are people making millions of dollars reading the chart using technical analysis. Bitcoin is of course more of a wild-west and the information you get from bitCoin is much less statistical reliable than EurUsd. But still you get some clue when you see tha chart go up like a hocky-stick... a crash is inevitable - but who knows from which level?

They're making millions of dollars by not day-trading at all as far as I can tell.

Market-changing events are determined by events, not statistics.

Also... consider... "your baby is growing really fast... a crash is inevitable". The "inevitable" logic only applies in a mature market, not a nascent one.

[johnyj]

Actually I'm worrying about this summer the fiat money system will run into big trouble, where they could no longer solve the economy problem with more and more money printing and higher and higher debt, the break of confidence at top level is just a matter of time

If that happened, the price of bitcoin will be just like bankers add new money with lots of 0s

[Odalv]

If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?

If we repeat 2011 ( 0.01 ... 32 ) then $12 * 3,200 = $38,400 and back ( from 32 to 2 ) $38,400 / 16 = $2,400 ... ( but there are 1,000,000,000,... other possible scenarios :-) )

[myself]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

BitPirate is a smart fella

You are here

I will laugh when you are here

[DoomDumas]

If history repeats itself Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up in the sky and make an ATH at 100$ for a day and crash 80% in the summer of 2013.

Bitcoin crashed 95% summer of 2011 so I am generous when saying that 80% crash should be enough - and we will be back at 20$.

The early ASIC-miners got a huge profit now and it seems that they just hord everything they mine, so when they begin to sell the chain reaction will give us a bottom to levels before  the 2013-rally started.

What do you think?

Yep, but we're probably at the ATH right now-ish.

Great proudhon call bear again, get ready for another 10% spike up soon

[BTC Books]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

BitPirate is a smart fella

You are here

I will laugh when you are here

I will buy.

Then, later, I will laugh.

[DoomDumas]

quick question, what do you mean "Bitcoin might make a parabolic rally up" might? that ship has sailed 

Worst chart ever.. Look at it in log scale and on a full horizontal lenght, not this cheated chart !

THIS is a more realistic chart :

[DoomDumas]

This one very interresting too,... very bullish !

[catcow]

newbie question: what does ATH stand for?

[BitPirate]

newbie question: what does ATH stand for?

All-time High

[coined]

Worst chart ever.. Look at it in log scale and on a full horizontal lenght, not this cheated chart !

log chart or not it's the same data. would you prefer to close your eyes to the real situation? you think log scale viewing stops it being bubble? people switched to log after the first exponential growth to 32, to make it easier to see. but it doesn't stop the reality of it clearly being a bubble.


My main plan is trying not be caught out at the top, but none of us can guarantee that, when a large holder cashes out and starts the reversal.. we are all small fish.

[BitPirate]

log chart or not it's the same data. would you prefer to close your eyes to the real situation? you think log scale viewing stops it being bubble? people switched to log after the first exponential growth to 32, to make it easier to see. but it doesn't stop the reality of it clearly being a bubble.


My main plan is trying not be caught out at the top, but none of us can guarantee that, when a large holder cashes out and starts the reversal.. we are all small fish.

The chart doesn't prove shit... log scale or not.

In many respects the log chart is more useful, as the user base is growing almost exponentially. The aim is to make some variables static. Total exposure to a crash per user is more useful than total total market price, if you're trying to figure out investors' appetite for continued high prices.

"reality of it clearly being a bubble" No chart shows that. They just show the price against time. Don't be fooled!

[johnyj]

The reason all of the previous bubbles burst:

1. Increased supply entering the market later when demand has been fulfilled
2. FED tighten the money supply

For bitcoin, non of these prerequisites exist.
1 is not possible in nearest 4 years
2 is not possible before 2015

And even FED tightens, it might not have any effect, since other currencies will chase bitcoin anyway

[Sage]

Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.

There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".

BitPirate is a smart fella

You are here

I will laugh when you are here

Love the graphic.  Could not agree more with it.

Right now, I see the excitement phase bordering on euphoria in the Bitcoin community.  Which would have me nervous if we here were the only investors.

Market psychology is always the first thing I look at.

BUT...

Outside the Bitcoin community we are seeing the opposite.  Pessimism, fear, doubt.

IF...

Only current Bitcoin users are investing I would be calling a bubble right now.  

BUT...

Since new investors outside the Bitcoin community are entering just now, that changes the overall psychology of the market.

You have to ask yourself, what is the true utility value of Bitcoin above everything else?  What is its potential utility value?  And what is the overall market psychology right now that is driving the current price? (Not the psychology of a little niche in the market, but the overall psychology of investors, and those entering the market).

Getting those answers right is going to be the key to buying at the right times over the next few years.

My 2 cents.

Cheers

[myself]

Since new investors outside the Bitcoin community are entering just now

do you have any proof whit numbers and dates ?