Why Avalon's "greed" is good

[Rodyland]

TL;DR: Avalon's "greed" is good for bitcoin as a whole, good for the longevity and the future of bitcoin.

1. Pricing in BTC normalises pricing in BTC
2. BTC52000 (minimum) is a nice chunk of change to process in real transactions for batch 3
3. Anyone who drops US$6k on a bitcoin mining rig must* have some faith in the whole enterprise
4. Profits Profits Profits

*(must as in "should have" rather than "ooh look free money")

And I think I should elaborate on #4, because not only do I think that's the most important one, but because Avalon's profits are taken straight out of the pockets of their customers so it may be hardest for people (especially their customers and people who wanted to be their customers but can't afford it) to understand. 

If you assume that Avalon merely broke even on their batch 1 and batch 2 orders at US$1500 (worst case and almost impossible to believe) then in fiat terms, at today's exchange rate of $70, the good people at Avalon are pulling US$2.8 MILLION dollars of profits for batch 3 alone.  If you assume that batch 1 and batch 2 were profitable in their own right at $1500, then we're talking $2.8M in monopoly rents (a much more reasonable assumption).

If the prospect of over $2.8M in profits from a single "run" of 600 product isn't enough to get others with the skills/knowledge/capital seriously interested, then I don't know what will.

But what's good for bitcoin isn't necessarily good for me, and I'm not buying, not at that price with an uncertain future delivery date.  If it were shipped tomorrow or next week, I'd be in.  On top of BTC88 being close enough to all my coin, with things such as ASICminer, BFL, helveticoin, not to mention Avalon batches 1 and 2, floating around out there or soon to be, I think people who are imagining a "worst-case" 6 or 12 month ROI are not sure what "worst case" actually means.  Even if the BFL and helveticoin are vapourware, once your ROI blows out past 6 months, you'll be competing with Avalon batch 4, maybe 5 customers too.

If the US$2.8M monopoly rent Avalon are extracting from batch 3 is enough to convince others to join the fray as well, your 12 month ROI could conceivably become never, because that's more than enough time for an organisation with the know-how to bring a product to market.

And I think that batch 3 becoming uneconomical with negative ROI (unless you've got free power) would be a good thing for bitcoin. For one, it would mean that there is multiple petahash of computation behind bitcoin, making the network that much stronger.  For two, it would mean multiple ASIC vendors, with different types of products for all sorts of use cases.  And all of that would (hopefully) come hand-in-hand with the mainstreaming of bitcoin.

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[Gator-hex]

Why Avalons greed is bad..

1) Only those who already own an ASIC can generate enough Bitcoins to buy the next Avalon ASIC run.
2) This will concentrate Bitcoin block solving power into just a small amount of hands.
3) This flies in the face of what Bitcoin was supposed to be, a large distributed network of nodes.
4) If this continues you run the risk of the Bitcoin community abandoning the project for LiteCoin.

[repentance]

Why Avalons greed is bad..

1) Only those who already own an ASIC can generate enough Bitcoins to buy the next Avalon ASIC run.
2) This will concentrate Bitcoin block solving power into just a small amount of hands.
3) This flies in the face of what Bitcoin was supposed to be, a large distributed network of nodes.
4) If this continues you run the risk of the Bitcoin community abandoning the project for LiteCoin.

People are paying $30,000 for BFL Mini-rigs and ordering 30 Singles, so it's clear that "only those who already own an ASIC..." is a bullshit argument - many people have placed orders of much greater value with BFL.  Hashing power is going to concentrate in the hands of those who have funds - whether it's BTC or USD - period. 

Mining arms races are going to continue and there are always going to be some miners prepared to pay a premium to gain a temporary advantage over others.  It's the nature of the beast.

[Dalkore]

Why Avalons greed is bad..

1) Only those who already own an ASIC can generate enough Bitcoins to buy the next Avalon ASIC run.
2) This will concentrate Bitcoin block solving power into just a small amount of hands.
3) This flies in the face of what Bitcoin was supposed to be, a large distributed network of nodes.
4) If this continues you run the risk of the Bitcoin community abandoning the project for LiteCoin.

People are paying $30,000 for BFL Mini-rigs and ordering 30 Singles, so it's clear that "only those who already own an ASIC..." is a bullshit argument - many people have placed orders of much greater value with BFL.  Hashing power is going to concentrate in the hands of those who have funds - whether it's BTC or USD - period. 

Mining arms races are going to continue and there are always going to be some miners prepared to pay a premium to gain a temporary advantage over others.  It's the nature of the beast.

Yep and in agreement.

We can't assume the only people with BTC is getting into mining.  As we have seen plenty of new money enter the market.  This is the nature of the beast.

Consolidation will happen, look at gold mining as an example.  Bitcoin was built with the ability for this to happen so even if it is an unintended consequence, it happened.

Litecoin you say?   Maybe but not likely, people are moving in to Bitcoin "because" the network is getting more secure and bigger.  It's the network effect in its prime.

[Rodyland]

Why Avalons greed is bad..

1) Only those who already own an ASIC can generate enough Bitcoins to buy the next Avalon ASIC run.
2) This will concentrate Bitcoin block solving power into just a small amount of hands.
3) This flies in the face of what Bitcoin was supposed to be, a large distributed network of nodes.
4) If this continues you run the risk of the Bitcoin community abandoning the project for LiteCoin.

People are paying $30,000 for BFL Mini-rigs and ordering 30 Singles, so it's clear that "only those who already own an ASIC..." is a bullshit argument - many people have placed orders of much greater value with BFL.  Hashing power is going to concentrate in the hands of those who have funds - whether it's BTC or USD - period. 

Mining arms races are going to continue and there are always going to be some miners prepared to pay a premium to gain a temporary advantage over others.  It's the nature of the beast.

1) False.  People with cash can do so too (as evidenced by BFL mini-rig orders)
2) Several hundred owners of round 3 Avalons isn't exactly "small".  
3) Anyone is free to buy - distribution isn't being artificially limited, other than only those who can afford to buy have the option to buy - which is the same for everything in the world
4) If Avalon make a mint, it encourages BFL, ASICminer, helveticoin, and other people we may not have even heard of yet, to step up, making bitcoin stronger in the long run.

As repentance said, at this stage of the network anyway, hashing power will concentrate to those with the money to buy the equipment.  When equipment is commoditised, hashing power will concentrate to those with cheap electricity (or with the money to jump on the "next generation").

[PuertoLibre]

Why Avalons greed is bad..

1) Only those who already own an ASIC can generate enough Bitcoins to buy the next Avalon ASIC run.
2) This will concentrate Bitcoin block solving power into just a small amount of hands.
3) This flies in the face of what Bitcoin was supposed to be, a large distributed network of nodes.
4) If this continues you run the risk of the Bitcoin community abandoning the project for LiteCoin.

People are paying $30,000 for BFL Mini-rigs and ordering 30 Singles, so it's clear that "only those who already own an ASIC..." is a bullshit argument - many people have placed orders of much greater value with BFL.  Hashing power is going to concentrate in the hands of those who have funds - whether it's BTC or USD - period. 

Mining arms races are going to continue and there are always going to be some miners prepared to pay a premium to gain a temporary advantage over others.  It's the nature of the beast.

I might just buy a BFL Minirig. 

[Rodyland]

I might just buy a BFL Minirig. 

  I tell you, if BFL ship, I'll be straight on to that boat.

[Gator-hex]

People are so short sighted when their eyes are filled with greed. 

[PuertoLibre]

People are so short sighted when their eyes are filled with greed. 

I fully support Avalon and believe they will come out on top for a long time to come.

They did what BFL could not do, ship a working product in a desirable time frame.

If I buy a Minirig, I am sure Avalon will bring me back to my senses with Gen2 and Gen3. At which point I will ask for the trade in value @ BFL. 

haha

Either way, like Avalon says, we should stop looking at Bitcoin as a vehicle for USD. I am thinking of opening up my own shop that sells goods for BTC. I believe that is what Avalon wanted to spark in the hearts of Miners.

In either case, my first (ever) miner was an Avalon Gen1.3

I expect good things from them in the coming days.

[johnyj]

Avalon will deliver up to 300+600+1000=1900 units , that is 125TH, and there are 3600 coins per day, remove the existing 25TH and upcoming 60T of ASICminer hash power, each avalon's return is around 1.2 BTC per day when all the machines are deployed, less than 90 days ROI is guaranteed even for the last buyer

Although BFL remained as a big variable, they might not be able to deliver in large scale before June

[Rodyland]

Avalon will deliver up to 300+600+1000=1900 units , that is 125TH, and there are 3600 coins per day, remove the existing 25TH and upcoming 60T of ASICminer hash power, each avalon's return is around 1.2 BTC per day when all the machines are deployed, less than 90 days ROI is guaranteed even for the last buyer

Although BFL remained as a big variable, they might not be able to deliver in large scale before June

This is not the "Avalon batch 3 will be profitable" thread, so as much as I want to pull your numbers apart, I won't.  But my original post includes reasons why I think that the 3 month ROI that you presume may easily become "never".

[runeks]

Why Avalons greed is bad..

1) Only those who already own an ASIC can generate enough Bitcoins to buy the next Avalon ASIC run.
2) This will concentrate Bitcoin block solving power into just a small amount of hands.
3) This flies in the face of what Bitcoin was supposed to be, a large distributed network of nodes.
4) If this continues you run the risk of the Bitcoin community abandoning the project for LiteCoin.

1) Get off your ass, earn money and save it up. If you haven't saved any money you can't expect to be able to take advantage of a good investment opportunity when it comes along.

2) 3) and 4) are all derived from your faulty premise in 1).

[johnyj]

Avalon will deliver up to 300+600+1000=1900 units , that is 125TH, and there are 3600 coins per day, remove the existing 25TH and upcoming 60T of ASICminer hash power, each avalon's return is around 1.2 BTC per day when all the machines are deployed, less than 90 days ROI is guaranteed even for the last buyer

Although BFL remained as a big variable, they might not be able to deliver in large scale before June

This is not the "Avalon batch 3 will be profitable" thread, so as much as I want to pull your numbers apart, I won't.  But my original post includes reasons why I think that the 3 month ROI that you presume may easily become "never".

Just a simple asumption that no other ASICs showed up in 2-3 months time frame. Avalon has a short time window where they dominate the retail market, during this period they could have a good ROI time. If BFL can deliver, their pricing is significantly more attractive

[Bogart]

It would be nice if there were a 10-chip ~2.8GH/s product available so smaller players could participate.

[Rodyland]

Avalon will deliver up to 300+600+1000=1900 units , that is 125TH, and there are 3600 coins per day, remove the existing 25TH and upcoming 60T of ASICminer hash power, each avalon's return is around 1.2 BTC per day when all the machines are deployed, less than 90 days ROI is guaranteed even for the last buyer

Although BFL remained as a big variable, they might not be able to deliver in large scale before June

This is not the "Avalon batch 3 will be profitable" thread, so as much as I want to pull your numbers apart, I won't.  But my original post includes reasons why I think that the 3 month ROI that you presume may easily become "never".

Just a simple asumption that no other ASICs showed up in 2-3 months time frame. Avalon has a short time window where they dominate the retail market, during this period they could have a good ROI time. If BFL can deliver, their pricing is significantly more attractive

You'renot  assuming no more capacity before    your  unit is  delivered . You assume no more until    your unit is paid off .

[Uuno]

I would like to see some smaller unit or cheaper one from Avalon. I haven't saved enough money to buy batch#3 6k unit and that's my fault but then again, I didn't exactly know that the price would jump from $1.5k to $6k.

[Gator-hex]

I would like to see some smaller unit or cheaper one from Avalon.

Agree. If you were really doing this for the love of bitcoin, as they claim, you would sell your units with 1,2,3,4 modules at different price points to get them out to widest possible audience.

[Bicknellski]

I would like to see some smaller unit or cheaper one from Avalon.

Agree. If you were really doing this for the love of bitcoin, as they claim, you would sell your units with 1,2,3,4 modules at different price points to get them out to widest possible audience.

Who is stopping a 3rd of 4th developer from doing that? I mean really why should Avalon offer anything other they want to offer. They are the only place you can buy a rig so guess what... the original poster forgot to add #5... that maybe with this "greed" it could drive more people to get into producing units. The market right now could use small asic units considering the demand.

[Gator-hex]

It amazes me that we created a new currency to wrestle away the printing press from an elite few and you all hunger to go back to the same situation.    Avalon does claim to do it's work to support the Bitcoin network (they didn't want BFL to be a monopoly supplier), I just point out the hypocrisy of their actions.

[Dalkore]

It amazes me that we created a new currency to wrestle away the printing press from an elite few and you all hunger to go back to the same situation.    Avalon does claim to do it's work to support the Bitcoin network (they didn't want BFL to be a monopoly supplier), I just point out the hypocrisy of their actions.

Avalon has done a wonderful thing so far.   I knew the price would be higher, we just didn't know BFL would really not be shipping by now, honestly.    I don't hunger to go back to elite few but you need to look at the capital required for the next generations of ASIC, who is going to fund it??  Answer:  US

Look long-term.  What you should really hope is that miners that make insane profits, keep reinvesting to secure the network.  I will do it as long as I can.

[Gator-hex]

Look long-term.  What you should really hope is that miners that make insane profits, keep reinvesting to secure the network.  I will do it as long as I can.

The security of the network also relies on strength in numbers / number of distributed nodes.
With a select few nodes doing all the work it's easier to target them for DDOS, theft, government confiscation, or even drone strike.  

Some might laugh, but all they need to do is label you a terrorist, Bernard von NotHaus, the creator of the Liberty Dollar was labeled as a domestic terrorist by the FBI, and arrested, $7m gold/silver backing his money seized.  

“Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism,” U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. “While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country,” she added. “We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government.”

http://www.fbi.gov/charlotte/press-releases/2011/defendant-convicted-of-minting-his-own-currency

[Dalkore]

Look long-term.  What you should really hope is that miners that make insane profits, keep reinvesting to secure the network.  I will do it as long as I can.

The security of the network also relies on strength in numbers / number of distributed nodes.
With a select few nodes doing all the work it's easier to target them for DDOS, theft, government confiscation, or even drone strike.  

Some might laugh, but all they need to do is label you a terrorist, Bernard von NotHaus, the creator of the Liberty Dollar was labeled as a domestic terrorist by the FBI, and arrested, $7m gold/silver backing his money seized.  

“Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism,” U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. “While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country,” she added. “We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government.”

http://www.fbi.gov/charlotte/press-releases/2011/defendant-convicted-of-minting-his-own-currency

This is different it is global and decentralized already.  We are in the phase where much capital is needed to increase performance and efficiency.  If you don't see that, do some more research on ASIC and Integrated Chips and how it works.   If you take all the profit out of the network before these become really power efficient then you are actually slowing down the securing of the network.   No one can tell me that a unit that pays off ROI in under 1 year is bad for Bitcoin.   If you want in, Pool up your coins and get a unit.  I am doing it for a bunch of people.  Problem solved.