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Author Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?  (Read 19475 times)
ATC777
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March 25, 2013, 02:14:21 AM
#1

Hey guys,

As I promised some time ago I am back to do more in-depth technical analysis of the BTC/USD rate. I'd hoped to do this again much sooner, but unforeseen circumstances (e.g., nasty car accident, numerous doctors appointments) forced me to put it on hold. But it's time for my next analysis, which probably couldn't come at a more interesting time!  Cheesy

To begin, I'd let's go over a few things before we dig into the charts. Many of remember that not so long ago you could buy a bitcoin for $12 and some change. And how about today (3/24/13)? Try a whopping $71.50! ... say what?! Shocked

As with all things, we have to ask ourselves what fundamental changes have occurred in the market to drive prices to these unparalleled all-time highs. This "super-rally" took place in two distinct legs. The first leg-up of this massive super-rally took us from the $10-$12 level to the high 40s and low 50s. As I was at the time, I'm still skeptical that there was any strong fundamental factors behind that massive climb. What changed? Did we gain some new users? Yes, we did. But we did not quadruple (or even double) our user-base, so it cannot be explained by an influx of new users. So what was it? Dominos pizza? Several people told me that... but Dominos did NOT start accepting bitcoin (it's merely a third party service that orders a pizza for you if you pay them BTC). While that's definitely cool, and a small victory for Bitcoin, it's not the fundamental factor we're looking for. The most plausible explanation is that European financial woes and fear about the integrity of the banking system caused a lot more interest in bitcoin (which is true). However, it certainly wasn't enough to support a $50+ rate for our budding crypto-currency. The "math" simply doesn't work out... So it leaves us with one thing: speculation.

It seems that excitement and the general happy-go-lucky attitude of the bitcoin community is the missing "fundamental" factor we're looking for, and our big swing in price is the result of a massive influx of speculative money. These things are self-feeding... the price moves up a nice bit, you hear some good stuff in the news, you might even have gotten one of those Dominos pizzas (lol), and then you and your buddies putting your whole $350 in savings into bitcoin to join the speculative wave. That moves the price up a bit more, and people chase it -- adding more and more money into it. To an experienced day trader or a Wall Street shark, the average Bitcoin user is what we call "financially unsophisticated"... most of the market is made up of Silk Road-using teenagers, amateur speculators and amateur traders, computer geek college students and the likes... people who've never traded a share of stock, don't know what a "calender spread" or an "Iron Condor" is and have no clue how the futures market works (or in most cases what it even is). When such people see the price of something going up, they leap to the assumption that it will keep going up... perhaps forever? That's what happened in the DotCom bubble, as amateur day traders and novice speculators poured tons of money into budding tech stocks (only to be utterly destroyed). About a week ago, I asked a bitcoin trader what fundamental factors he thought was driving the market higher. His response: "Well... Bitcoin has been mentioned in the news a whole bunch lately!" And it seems he's not alone in his failure to distinguish a news headline from fundamentals...  Undecided

We have seen patterns such as this before... we saw it in the aforementioned "DotBomb"... we saw it before the real estate / MBS meltdown of 2008... and of course, we cannot forget the tulip mania of 17th century Holland. Anyone even moderately experienced with financial markets understands the concept of bubbles. And when I look at this I cannot help but notice the striking similarities between past bubbles and the precariously high price of Bitcoin. But it did not stop at $50. The crisis in Cyprus, news headlines and a myriad of rather trivial factors triggered yet another influx of speculative money driving the price yet another 50% higher. Not even the recent fork in the blockchain (which highlighted how delicate this thing can be) was enough to dissuade the crowd from dumping their savings into the mix. And when the pigs beg to be slaughtered, savvy traders are smart enough to capitalize upon the ignorance of the masses -- thus their money is added to the equation and drive prices even higher... Bubbles operate largely upon the "snowball effect" as greed rolls it up the hillside. In my last analysis I was hoping for a correction that would settle things down and give us time to catch our breath. But I still felt uncertain. I left myself room for the market blasting off like a rocket, and I'm glad I did. But this time I'm thrice as skeptical and have officially begun preparing for a big move to the downside. So let's have a look at those charts...



I've numbered my scribblings on the chart to provide some commentary...

1) Double-top Pattern (drawn in blue)

These things are always scary... Sometimes they fake us out, but a double-top is generally a very strong bearish indicator. A double-top tends to occur at the end of a large rally. The market becomes over-bought, and finally tips over as people begin selling. But just as the selling gets heated people decide to jump back in, hoping that the rally will continue. When it doesn't, and fails to break through the former resistance level, everyone begins jumping ship and it plummets. In my day trading experience I've found these things to be good indicators. The double-top pattern was what gave me the signal to sell all my gold and silver futures, mining stocks and physical bullion just under $50/oz for silver. And it has served me well on countless stocks and a myriad of smaller intra-day and swing trades.

2) Current resistance

The red line indicates the current resistance level. Lo and behold, we raced back towards that level and failed to punch through. For this rally to continue we will need to see a very strong break-out above the resistance level with heavy volume. And we're not seeing it. In fact, it looks like the rate is falling as I type.

3) Old support level

The green line is the old support level after the first leg-up of the rally. When major sell-offs occur you can usually expect some support to bunch up around the former support level, and I expect that if we see the market topple and plunge back toward the 50s. This line indicates nothing in and of itself, but I'm pointing it out so you will pay attention to it if/when the sell-off gets hot and heavy.

4) MACD

MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is one of my favorite indicators. Right now, good ol' MACD is telling us that momentum is stalling. We failed (so far) to set a new high both in price and MACD. And I've highlighted the MACD resistance level with the red line. We've been over-extended and over-bought for quite some time, and in my own experience I've found that MACD wins the tug-of-war 9 times out of 10 (hence the reason I'm willing to risk my money on it). The shrinking of the green histogram also indicates stalling momentum, and our short-term MA is beginning to slope downward -- thus making the signal more bearish. I am currently watching for a cross in the MAs, and for both to fall below the signal line (zero).

5) Stochastics

Our stochastics are also pointing towards the over-bought condition. It's all been BUY BUY BUY for weeks on end, and this tells the tale of the weakening money-flow. If you take a look at how the stochastics correspond to previous rallies and sell-offs, you can see just how useful this indicator can be. And right now it's screaming "DONT BUY! DONT BUY! DONT BUY!".

------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION ::
------------------------------------------------------

Last time I was uncertain about what was to come... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit. Profit is money you didn't have before, and now you have it. So take it off the table and enjoy it. You can stay in the shark pool if you want, but do so at your own peril. It looks like the correction is indeed very close -- no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen. If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s. So I think the smartest move you can make is to de-risk and go have some fun with your not-so-hard-earned money. :-)

However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here. The reason is because a LOT more people will get burned a LOT worse and lose a LOT more money. So it will scare off a lot of newbies and people will be scared to re-enter the market for some time. So I hope it doesn't pan out this way.

In any case, I raise my cup to a bitcoin correction. I'm optimistic about the long-term future of bitcoin, but we're way over-extended (and way over-due) for a considerable correction. We need one to settle things down and give our great crypto-currency a chance to truly grow. So have fun, and good luck no matter what the outcome!

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 25, 2013, 02:23:23 AM
#2

You call the top. I call continuation of the existing trend. I do not even need any charts and other mumbo jumbo.


Let's buy some popcorn now. We make a new all time high and I win.





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March 25, 2013, 02:33:32 AM
#3

Firstly, the power of your tests is lacking... we saw a "double-top" down in the 40s, we saw stochastics screaming overbought, etc, etc, etc.  

On the subject of resistance: We failed to punch through on a Sunday!  Oh no!  The rate is falling on light volume in the 1hr chart, which is hardly a strong sell signal.  Well, tomorrow the cavalry arrives, and we'll see whether we "fail to punch through" with a few million dollars more in rocket fuel Smiley

Does your point about Bitcoin adoption have any solid numbers behind it?  I can tell you that gox is flooded with new users, coinbase is flooded with new users, and blockchain.info is flooded with new users.  What do you have to show for your assertion that the user base has not even doubled?

And fundamentally, one question needs to be asked.  Can we really compare Bitcoin to bullshit companies that fueled the .com bubble, or useless tulips?  What I see is not a tulip, but a revolutionary technology.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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March 25, 2013, 02:39:25 AM
#4

So your prediction is that we'll revert to the exponential growth trendline (50s, maybe a brief stint below as overcorrection) and your advice is to "SELL"?! That same trendline that has us at $100 in just a few more weeks? You'd risk giving up your position just for a few tens of percents?

Yes, we'll be gladly taking your money. You and anyone who takes your advice. But thanks for helping to decentralize bitcoin wealth  Grin
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March 25, 2013, 02:41:52 AM
#5

Wait. You are using an hourly chart to predict a major long term top? The analysis might work for a short term trade, but probably nothing more. Double tops that signal major downtrends don't usually occur just a few days apart, because when they do occur a few days apart, it means the dip was bought quickly. Major tops usually take a while to form, unless you have a blow-off top - i.e. a high-volume daily candle and a long upper tail. Go for if you want, but I'd keep a tight stop on it.  
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March 25, 2013, 02:50:47 AM
#6

Great reading...learned alot...thanks. But I dont buy it...bitcoin has something about it that I don't think your thesis can model..its that intangible something that you can't quantify. I think all your point's are valid and well thought out...I just think that bitcoin is about to go viral thru the general public so it pretty much blow old CW out the door.

On second thought..I will buy it...tip sent for good literature.

zif

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March 25, 2013, 02:54:42 AM
#7

this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling.
You call the top. I call continuation of the existing trend. I do not even need any charts and other mumbo jumbo.

Let's buy some popcorn now. We make a new all time high and I win.



PS: Good analysis, learned from it, but it's a technical one, I think you make a mistake in saying news is not fundamental because as more people becomes aware of bitcoin, demand will rise and so will price.

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March 25, 2013, 02:55:31 AM
#8

You say in your fundamental analysis that "the math doesn't add up". But you don't provide any math. Let me provide some for you:

Bitcoin speculation as a % of overall bitcoin usage has been decreasing since the end of last year. I see this as a very positive sign:




Furthermore you base your initial reasoning on looking for "fundamental changes". This is a big bang. A new market. Not a static one. Fundamentals don't have to improve in order for the market to follow -- they have to remain the same.

Anyway...
FACT: inbound money flow to Gox is huge. FACT: The user base is growing exponentially. FACT: Analysis of online sources shows that this trend is strengthening. This renders your following observations utterly irrelevant:

- "Our stochastics are also pointing towards the over-bought condition. It's all been BUY BUY BUY for weeks on end, and this tells the tale of the weakening money-flow." --- not applicable to a nascent market

- "no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen" --- completely irrelevant

Given this, the rest is just "blah blah blah".

If you want to turn a profit, do it. If you want to buy in lower, write this post 3 days ago. But this thread is pointless now.

TL;DR: I think your fundamental analysis is off, and your conclusions are wrong. Furthermore if this post is timed for manipulative impact, you're about 3 days too late.

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March 25, 2013, 03:07:19 AM
#9

I would like to add some of my own insight. I talked to ATC here recently and we seem to have a good fix on the market. ATC is a day tarder and he is a lot better with detailed emarketing standpoints were I am more of a psychological/sociological spin on his statistics. I normally leave the explanations to him, and help him more behind the scenes but I will step out of the shadows and give my input.

Quote from: ATC777
However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here. The reason is because a LOT more people will get burned a LOT worse and lose a LOT more money. So it will scare off a lot of newbies and people will be scared to re-enter the market for some time. So I hope it doesn't pan out this way.

In 2011 we saw a somewhat similar situation except on a much smaller scale. There were less Bitcoin participants and a lot less capital invested in Bitcoins. Not to mention Bitcoins were going steady at $10 or less. The price surged up due to a article seen here--> http://techland.time.com/2011/04/16/online-cash-bitcoin-could-challenge-governments/ Which brought in a lot of new people causing an influx in sale volume which in turn drives the price up. We have seen that here recently as well, however as far as I can tell it is more due to people noticing a stable environment to "get rich quick" invest 10k and get 20k back in 2 days. Well eventually people run out of money to keep throwing into the mix.

And something like this Happens


Nearly 160 THOUSAND Dollars worth of sale volume and the price surged to ~30 USD per bitcoin. But look what happens when it falls! Not even enough sale volume to put it on the map.Bitcoins plummeted this is an auto correct in the very nature of trading. It is human nature to want more money. Money is the key to everything. The normal train of thought also show us when to hold our money to save it. But there are other contributing factors, Take for example somewhat at a Casino. The average person loses terribly and walk away. Then there is another small percentage that wins big by cashing out at the right time. As seen in the previous chart between the 12th and the 17th maid a profit even if it was a slim one. Like ATC said here:
Quote from: ATC77
We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit. Profit is money you didn't have before, and now you have it. So take it off the table and enjoy it

So I suggest learning from past mistakes and making that little bit of profit otherwise you will be feeling like the people on the 21st through the 24th with no one to sell to (Hardly any sale volume at all, Newbies moved out along with a lot of the big money)
As seen here:
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March 25, 2013, 03:08:50 AM
#10

Does your point about Bitcoin adoption have any solid numbers behind it?  I can tell you that gox is flooded with new users, coinbase is flooded with new users, and blockchain.info is flooded with new users.  What do you have to show for your assertion that the user base has not even doubled?

PS: Good analysis, learned from it, but it's a technical one, I think you make a mistake in saying news is not fundamental because as more people becomes aware of bitcoin, demand will rise and so will price.

I believe my last reply perfectly fit this part of your posts guys
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March 25, 2013, 03:14:13 AM
#11

I don't think your analysis is correct because bitcoins are a complete novelty and CANNOT be compared with traditional stock markets. This doesn't look like a speculative bubble, it looks as if the bitcoin is slowly reaching it's "correct" price. With only 21m bitcoins that can be mined (not a lot), and the widespread adoption of it, prices are set to be higher than 1,000$.

In fact, the more news coverage it gets, the higher the prices will be. Bitcoins aren't known by a lot of people, in comparison to silver. If silver gets news coverage, people won't "learn" about it. When people learn about bitcoins, they either get skeptical or heavily enthusiastic about it.

What makes bitcoin so valuable is decentralization. I think what's happening in Cyprus and the EU is very good for the evolution of our economic systems, because now people are finding out how much BS fiat paper is. What you have though with bitcoins is very tempting: decentralization, no "withdrawal limits", no wallets that can be seized, no taxes unless you convert to fiat currency, anonymity in an Orwellian world...

You are selling? I'll gladly take your bitcoins in exchange of my worthless canadian dollars Smiley

However, I enjoyed reading your analysis. I am a noob at trading (though I made a great move when buying LTCs at 0,0055 btc and selling at 0.015), but to me it seems evident that the rocket is NOT about to stop anytime soon. Sure, corrections will happen but having invested at 8$ a bitcoin I see no point in selling right now. I'm in for the long term, and I believe a lot of people are too.
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March 25, 2013, 03:14:45 AM
#12

Does your point about Bitcoin adoption have any solid numbers behind it?  I can tell you that gox is flooded with new users, coinbase is flooded with new users, and blockchain.info is flooded with new users.  What do you have to show for your assertion that the user base has not even doubled?

PS: Good analysis, learned from it, but it's a technical one, I think you make a mistake in saying news is not fundamental because as more people becomes aware of bitcoin, demand will rise and so will price.

I believe my last reply perfectly fit this part of your posts guys

Not really.

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

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March 25, 2013, 03:21:23 AM
#13

Anybody who wants to bet against ATC's predictions can bet against him here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157325.0 Since most of you seem dead set on your points.
Also I am willing to make some personal wagers of my own. PM me if your interested in making a wager
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March 25, 2013, 03:27:50 AM
#14

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.

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March 25, 2013, 03:30:16 AM
#15

If it goes over a hundred i'll go a lot higher.

$72 barrier might be broken tmr or we might get a reversal.

Exponential growth is not normal to those people.

Right now i'm unsure we are in the right state for a bubble.  People aren't euphoric we need to wait for it to go past $100.  And because so many people are interested in buying again still so it'll probably go back up like in that graph.
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March 25, 2013, 03:32:36 AM
#16

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate
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March 25, 2013, 03:35:41 AM
#17

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

And I've been around a lot longer than the both of you.  I was there in the crash, watched it go down to $2 live on goxlive, and knew one of the people who sold below $2 in November '11 ($1.994 was hit momentarily).  The temptation to sell was strong.  I held all the way through and now I'm very glad for it.  This is not June '11, not by a long shot.  We have fundamentals this time.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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March 25, 2013, 03:37:04 AM
#18

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

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March 25, 2013, 03:40:12 AM
#19

You call the top. I call continuation of the existing trend. I do not even need any charts and other mumbo jumbo.


Let's buy some popcorn now. We make a new all time high and I win.

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March 25, 2013, 03:42:07 AM
#20

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!

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March 25, 2013, 03:49:04 AM
#21

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

That's not what I see...

What I see is people getting upset by any opinion other than their own, and using "age elitism" to try to condescend.  Roll Eyes

If you don't agree with my analysis or my opinion, so what? Whatever. Vote with your money. No need to get hostile. And you won't be taking my money, because my money is safely on the sidelines now. It's all of your money that's up for grabs, and perhaps I might be taking it from you in another week or two.  Wink

I've been in this position before... one of my favorites was when I made a very bearish call on the S&P 500 years ago, and I was ridiculed and insulted up, down, right and left for it. And lots of forum assholes were insulting me because I was just 20 or 21 years old at the time, so I was just a "stupid kid". They said I was going to lose all my money and I should just stop trading and go kill myself. You know what happened? 4 days later, the S&P 500 plunged 55pts at the opening. My small options position I'd put $4000 into swelled to a net value of over $17,500 instantly. Then the same bullies who'd ridiculed me made a public apology thread and paid homage, which was quite amusing. The moral of this story is not that I'm the world's greatest trader (of course I'm not), but you should never call someone an idiot or mock them because of an opposing view on the market... because it might be YOU who loses all their money the next day.  Wink

I've been wrong before, and I'm prepared to be wrong again. I know how to manage my risk. And it this point my risk is 0%... you're the ones with risk, and I wish you all well.  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 25, 2013, 03:53:31 AM
#22

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!


Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.

Takes courage to speak what you see when everyone else is against you.

And for what it's worth, in the top of every bubble everyone is going to be against the bears.

For what it's worth from me (you can check my other posts for calling the market):

Yes, we are definitely in an overbought situation.  Current events are fueling that frenzy.  But the fundamentals are still very strong.

The question is when is the tension strong enough from the overbought price to pull it back (like a rubber band).  Calling that exact price is pretty tough to do.

When it does get pulled back it's another great buying opportunity.  The fundamentals are just too strong to do otherwise.  And are only getting stronger.
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March 25, 2013, 03:54:12 AM
#23

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

That's not what I see...

What I see is people getting upset by any opinion other than their own, and using "age elitism" to try to condescend.  Roll Eyes

If you don't agree with my analysis or my opinion, so what? Whatever. Vote with your money. No need to get hostile. And you won't be taking my money, because my money is safely on the sidelines now. It's all of your money that's up for grabs, and perhaps I might be taking it from you in another week or two.  Wink

I've been in this position before... one of my favorites was when I made a very bearish call on the S&P 500 years ago, and I was ridiculed and insulted up, down, right and left for it. And lots of forum assholes were insulting me because I was just 20 or 21 years old at the time, so I was just a "stupid kid". They said I was going to lose all my money and I should just stop trading and go kill myself. You know what happened? 4 days later, the S&P 500 plunged 55pts at the opening. My small options position I'd put $4000 into swelled to a net value of over $17,500 instantly. Then the same bullies who'd ridiculed me made a public apology thread and paid homage, which was quite amusing. The moral of this story is not that I'm the world's greatest trader (of course I'm not), but you should never call someone an idiot or mock them because of an opposing view on the market... because it might be YOU who loses all their money the next day.  Wink

I've been wrong before, and I'm prepared to be wrong again. I know how to manage my risk. And it this point my risk is 0%... you're the ones with risk, and I wish you all well.  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.
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March 25, 2013, 03:56:05 AM
#24

Markets often tend to get overbought and stay overbought for long time until they stop. The "overbought" term is so overused by TA charlatans that it has became completely and utterly pointless.


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March 25, 2013, 03:56:55 AM
#25

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.

And that's a totally incorrect assumption. Human psychology hasn't changed since the tulip mania of the 17th century. ;-)

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March 25, 2013, 04:03:34 AM
#26

@ Sage :

Thank you for a very eloquent and reasonable post, and for expressing your differing view with great civility.  Smiley

And for what it's worth, in the top of every bubble everyone is going to be against the bears.

That is absolutely correct. Just when everyone thinks they're safe:



 Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 04:07:36 AM
#27

Markets often tend to get overbought and stay overbought for long time until they stop. The "overbought" term is so overused by TA charlatans that it has became completely and utterly pointless.



Every market is going to have a price / value ratio.  The value of Bitcoins is increasing.  The question is is the price increasing faster then the value?

Because you have 2 moving variables, the price, and the value.  And one is very hard to define, overbought can best be signaled by current momentum compared to past momentum.

If the momentum slows (as we are seeing), long enough the "tension" between the value and the price loosens, making room for another run on the breakout of that slowed momentum.

The question right now, is do we have enough of a slowing in momentum long enough to ease that tension?  I'm watching this current consolidation closely.

No market, Bitcoin or otherwise, can see increasing momentum forever.
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March 25, 2013, 04:08:43 AM
#28

I will give you my analysis that is way shorter and more accurate:

Don't bet against bitcoin.

Bitcoin is deflationary, it's designed that way therefore if no external factors such as security flaws affect the coin, then it'll grow as people adopt it, either users, speculators, hoarders, you name it.
If you look at bitcoin in the next 4 years, you have the concept wrong unless you really want to profit in the short term and that's ok, but the real money will be made in 5-10 years from now.
Easy example:
May 21 2010    laszlo first to buy pizza with Bitcoins agreeing upon paying 10,000 BTC for ~$25 worth of pizza courtesy of jercos

Source: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History#2008

That pizza is worth 700,000 today!

We are talking about an event that occurred less than 3 years ago!
All your analysis is fundamentally flawed from the very first word.
Trying to analyze bitcoin the way analyst analyze stocks is erroneous as well.
But that's ok, I'm not here to educate bears, I love bears, they give me the opportunity to make even more money!

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March 25, 2013, 04:13:03 AM
#29

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!


Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.


Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

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March 25, 2013, 04:19:24 AM
#30

ATC I want my 6 minutes of life back that I lost reading all that bull crap!


Chill my friend.  He's just posting his analysis.


Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

Hmmm.... What do I say here?

You're suggesting quite a powerful hand he holds for one thread he starts to move the market.

Wow, who is this kid with that kind of power?  Or is it Jedi Mind tricks Wink
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March 25, 2013, 04:21:23 AM
#31

Point taken -- if the market is that jittery, then that would mean we were near a top anyway.

But when there are a bunch of new hands, probably directly inbound from Reddit trying to chase the train, I wouldn't underestimate the power of this speculation forum.

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March 25, 2013, 04:21:56 AM
#32

Don't bet against bitcoin.

No one suggested betting against Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin. I suggested people take their profits, enjoy them and relax.  Smiley

Bitcoin is deflationary, it's designed that way therefore if no external factors such as security flaws affect the coin, then it'll grow as people adopt it, either users, speculators, hoarders, you name it.

So the price of bitcoin never goes down? Have you ever even seen a chart before? Nothing moves in straight lines when humans are buying and selling it, my friend.

If you look at bitcoin in the next 4 years, you have the concept wrong unless you really want to profit in the short term and that's ok, but the real money will be made in 5-10 years from now.

I agree. I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term. Evidently you didn't understand a word of my post or the implications of the analysis.  Wink

That pizza is worth 700,000 today!

Yummy...

All your analysis is fundamentally flawed from the very first word.
Trying to analyze bitcoin the way analyst analyze stocks is erroneous as well.
But that's ok, I'm not here to educate bears, I love bears, they give me the opportunity to make even more money!

I don't think you understand what technical analysis is... TA can be used on ANYTHING people buy and sell. The way a stock analyst analyzes stocks is by the fundamentals (EPS, Price-to-Earnings Ratio, etc). I'm glad this "bear" was able to educate you. You're welcome!  Wink

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March 25, 2013, 04:25:14 AM
#33

Yes, and what most people who disagree with you are trying to say is just that: you cannot compare S&P 500 with bitcoins. They are entirely different beasts.

And that's a totally incorrect assumption. Human psychology hasn't changed since the tulip mania of the 17th century. ;-)

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...

This^
Bitcoin is no different than any other financial market on Earth.  When dealing with money, and the gain and loss thereof, there are the EXACT same psychological effects as other markets. This same psychology is the basis to Elliot Wave Theory, and the number one reason why you get panic in either direction.
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March 25, 2013, 04:26:37 AM
#34

Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

It is absolutely out of the goodness of my heart (and hopefully some tips from those who enjoy learning about TA). And just as others have, you can disagree with my conclusion and learn from the analysis. Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options. I only hope to help people and offer advice and insight, and I hope someone out there will be inspired by my chart-work and analysis and make themselves a lot of money too.  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

EDIT:

Unfortunately, Sage has exposed me... Yes, I confess it... I am a jedi, and this has all been reverse-reverse-reverse reverse psychology to trick everyone into first selling, then buying, then selling again, and then buying and then selling. Damn, caught me!  Grin

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March 25, 2013, 04:36:34 AM
#35


Unfortunately, Sage has exposed me... Yes, I confess it... I am a jedi, and this has all been reverse-reverse-reverse reverse psychology to trick everyone into first selling, then buying, then selling again, and then buying and then selling. Damn, caught me!  Grin
I must admit I got higly confused on this part trying to keep track of what your goal was in the end lol Tongue
I figured it out tho
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March 25, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
#36

LOL!

1. See a double top at 20ish
2. Sell your bitcoin
3. Buy back at 40ish
4.  Huh
5. Profit

As I'm planning to make some large purchases of BTC, I decided to perform an in-depth price analysis as I would before taking any significant position in any market. I come from a background in equities, futures and FOREX and I'm still learning the ins and outs of the Bitcoin exchange market and "Bitconomy", but technical analysis abstracts away most of the underlying fundamentals and allows a trader to focus on the market action / data itself. It amounts to a form of "mass psychology", allowing the analyst to make "forecasts" on asset prices. So what I've done here is spent a little time analyzing the BTC/USD rate and attempting to decipher the ebb and flow of the market from the charts and data. Some people swear by the technicals, and some hate it... But it's made me several small fortunes over the years, and that's enough for me.  Cool

Here we go... The overall picture I have of the BTC/USD rate is one with a very bullish long-term future; but due for a short-term correction. The resistance we have seen in the $22.00 neighborhood has proven much stronger than most would've thought, and there it seems that sell orders are stacking up. There are also a lot of traders on OTC trying to liquidate their holdings of several hundred BTC. I think we're simply over-extended at these levels, and need a healthy correction. Lots of speculative $ are stacked up in the BTC and trigger fingers are itchy... Let's look at the chart-work:

First we need to take a look at a 3-month chart, to get an idea of what's been happening over a wider time-frame:



It seems apparent we've been on a major tear, and the bulls haven't been able to keep running. That is one big divergence in our moving averages, and the MACD is indicating a big drop in momentum. I think it won't be long before we have a cross in the MACD and the rolling correction (if we get one) begins. As of right now we're merely hovering just beneath resistance and just above the EMA-14. Volume has sloped off as well. A little bit of selling pressure can trigger a much bigger move.

Now we'll take a look at what has happened in the last 10 days:



I have added numbers on this chart to comment on each thing...

1) The most troubling bearish signal I see here is the classic double-top pattern. This is a bearish pattern in which the market reaches a high point, falls back, attempts to reach a new high but fails -- followed by a correction or sell-off.

2) This shorter time-frame gives us a snapshot of MACD as it is approaching the signal line for a cross. Falling below the signal line typically indicates a high potential for downward momentum which will carry on for a while. There is also a growing negative divergence, which is evident by looking at the expanse of the histogram.

3) The #3 points to the tightest resistance line, found around $21.50. We have tested this resistance line twice, and have failed both times. This strongly suggests we're not ready to take out this conceptual barrier just yet -- we've already had a tremendous move.

4) Both of our exponential moving averages (EMAs) are beginning to take a negative attitude and are rapidly converging. We should watch for a cross in the EMA-14 and EMA-60 and interpret it as a signal the correction may be beginning.

5) Volume, volume, volume!!! Where has all the buying volume gone off to? I can tell you: people are feeling iffy about this current price level after this huge move up. This has a very bearish echo, in my opinion, as it suggests new buyers/speculators are not pumping the $ into BTC at this level. People (by which I mean regular users) are complaining about Bitcoins being "expensive" to buy, and that means a slowdown for Bitcoin sellers. A slowdown for sellers means less buy orders on the exchanges, and we all know what that means. They say "price is king", but volume can speak volumes.  Smiley

I'd like to say a few things to conclude my analysis and break-down... By looking at the EMA-60 on the 3mo chart (the first picture), we can estimate that support will fall around the $16 level. Prices tend to stick to longer-term moving averages in corrections, and that's the one I've got my eye on. I think it's best we take some profits here and now and let this thing cool off. It's not good to stretch too far too fast -- you create big bubbles that can bust a whole economy. So don't view a correction as a bad thing but rather a very good thing. It will give us all the opportunity to make an intelligent and thoughtful re-entry into the BTC market and enjoy the next leg-up. But keep in mind that technical analysis is NOT about "predicting" markets -- none of this is set in stone. Technical analysis is a never-ending quest to become a master of data and chart interpretation and make better risk management and trading decisions.

Personally, I'm planning to buy a large amount of BTC right away. But I'm actually going to transfer it all to my new MtGox and exchange accounts to sell and hold in the form of fiat, giving the correction some room to run. As the price falls I will be buying BTC in increments, in a pyramid-shaped fashion -- this "dollar cost averaging" will allow me to progressively improve my entry point into the market and actually lower my average unit cost. Of course, I'm also accumulating a lot of gold and silver. In dollar terms, gold and silver are a bargain -- and we have another round of QE underway. The good thing about holding gold and silver during a BTC/USD correction is I get a lot more bang for my buck when I sell my bullion and move back to cheaper BTC.  Cool

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 25, 2013, 04:56:11 AM
#37

Don't bet against bitcoin.

No one suggested betting against Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin. I suggested people take their profits, enjoy them and relax.  Smiley

Bitcoin is deflationary, it's designed that way therefore if no external factors such as security flaws affect the coin, then it'll grow as people adopt it, either users, speculators, hoarders, you name it.

So the price of bitcoin never goes down? Have you ever even seen a chart before? Nothing moves in straight lines when humans are buying and selling it, my friend.

Yes, but look why it goes down. And no, in the long term the price of bitcoin will go up. You are too young, too excited about an analysis that is based on your newly learn "skill" just because you read the economist, the WSJ doesn't mean you know what's going on. I'm lad you're able to analyze bitcoin from a technical level, but that analysis doesn't show anything new nor contributes to make an informed decision.

If you look at bitcoin in the next 4 years, you have the concept wrong unless you really want to profit in the short term and that's ok, but the real money will be made in 5-10 years from now.

I agree. I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term. Evidently you didn't understand a word of my post or the implications of the analysis.  Wink

Ok, you asked for it, let me rip your analysis apart:
"Last time I was uncertain about what was to come... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit"

Don't sell, sell and you'll regret it in 2-3 years, this kid thinks that because he knows a few technical concepts he can analyze and predict that bitcoing will go down, yet he states above: "I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term".
You're already making at least 200-300% if you got in at 20-30, the risk of selling your coins and risking not making way more money is way more than keeping them and losing all the profit or investment.
What's the reasoning behind a sell? Make up your mind, if you're bullish on the long term, why risking selling your coins? To be able to rebuy at cheaper prices? Maybe buying 10% more on a dip?  Is that worth the risk knowing bitcoin will most likely to up over time?

"no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity"
Inciting money? Do you realize that bitcoin market is less then 1 billion? We are talking about a world currency! One billion is a drop in the ocean! The adoption potential is so high that it is beyond anything you can possibly understand. A 5th grader can probably understand that better than you and your analysis can.

"If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s"
And if you're wrong, then you will be able to get back in with 10-20% less bitcoins that you will never have again or you will have a hard time to recover... In a market that lacks offers and is full of bids.

"However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level)"

So what kind of conclusion is this? A "I cover my ass just in case im wrong conclusion?" Why is $100 a key psychological level? 32 wasn't a big deal psychologically speaking, $50 wasn't either, where is the psycho-logical explanation for the $100 level? Is it because it has two zeros? Not sure i understand please explain further.

"If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here"
Why the crash will be much worse? Because its more money? You need to think percentages, 2% of 100 is way more than 2% of 30, and the more adoption in the coin will without a doubt impact how bitcoin fluctuates bitcoin is way too young and way too exposed to pump and dumps, once we surpass a few billion dollars in market cap, then the coin will be much harder to move, at least at the same levels of fluctuations that we have nowadays.

"In any case, I raise my cup to a bitcoin correction. I'm optimistic about the long-term future of bitcoin"

Why on earth would you recommend selling if you are optimistic about the future of bitcoin? Why would anyone risk and I state this again selling a few bitcoins if the long term is optimistic? What's your correction price? 40-50? That correction happened and it went up again. The coin can fluctuate as much, you won't see 20's again that's for sure, yo u most likely see $100 before seeing 20's again, so you're selling? I'm buying, I'm buying at 60, at 70, and at 80...
In 2015 ill be the guy that didn't buy that pizza for 0.5BTC and who knows, maybe 0.5 might be worth $700,000

So please, do sell!

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March 25, 2013, 04:56:39 AM
#38

LOL!

1. See a double top at 20ish
2. Sell your bitcoin
3. Buy back at 40ish
4.  Huh
5. Profit

Erm, no... You either did not actually read or failed to understand. Last time I was watching/hoping for a correction, and I bought BTC. Finger was on the trigger, but never pulled it because it set a new high and kept going. So I held my coins. Just like Keynes said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

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March 25, 2013, 05:03:31 AM
#39


I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

For a long-term bitcoin believer, selling at 20 and buying back at 40 is losing 50% of bitcoin

Good luck with your double top call. This pattern has happened many times in the past 2 months.

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March 25, 2013, 05:07:01 AM
#40

A pattern like this has happened many times in the last few months allowing me to buy back in at 64 57 and even 36.8.
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March 25, 2013, 05:07:33 AM
#41

LOL!

1. See a double top at 20ish
2. Sell your bitcoin
3. Buy back at 40ish
4.  Huh
5. Profit

Erm, no... You either did not actually read or failed to understand. Last time I was watching/hoping for a correction, and I bought BTC. Finger was on the trigger, but never pulled it because it set a new high and kept going. So I held my coins. Just like Keynes said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

"But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity"

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig... If you sold at $20 and you bought again at $40 then you lost money. You can call it an "opportunity" all you want. I call it losing money. I'm sure you sold low and bought high at some point or many times and I'm sure it fell like you lost money, not "opportunity"

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March 25, 2013, 05:13:56 AM
#42

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

Hey noob,

Being on the forum for 3 months doesn't get you out of the "newcomers" sandbox.

Go play with the kiddie toys and let the adults who have been around here for much much longer than you discuss the important things.

FYI: I've been around the forums since June 2011.  Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 05:17:02 AM
#43

Ok, you asked for it, let me rip your analysis apart:

Unfortunately, the text that followed totally failed to deliver that...  Roll Eyes

BTW: Please learn to use the quote feature....

Don't sell, sell and you'll regret it in 2-3 years, this kid thinks that because he knows a few technical concepts he can analyze and predict that bitcoing will go down, yet he states above: "I'm bullish on BTC/USD long-term".

Another $200 amateur trader exhibiting a total lack of market-sense and calling me "kid"... how amusing...  Cheesy

Stop acting like a condescending douche bag and trying to insult me, and show respect to other people when you speak to them (and they might take you seriously). Did you not learn that as a child? If not, there's your basic life lesson for the day. If you want to have a civilized discussion about this I will be most happy to continue. But I'm tempted to use my Ignore button if not... Sorry if I give offense, but just being blunt... Ad hominem gets old fast...

What's the reasoning behind a sell? Make up your mind, if you're bullish on the long term, why risking selling your coins? To be able to rebuy at cheaper prices? Maybe buying 10% more on a dip?  Is that worth the risk knowing bitcoin will most likely to up over time?

Are you unable to understand that different traders have different objectives, risk profiles, time horizons, etc? If your coins are intended as a long-term investment over the next 5-10 years then of course YOU should not sell, because you're not a trader (you're an investor). Traders, on the other hand, care about what's going to happen here and now and in the near future.

"no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity"
Inciting money? Do you realize that bitcoin market is less then 1 billion? We are talking about a world currency! One billion is a drop in the ocean! The adoption potential is so high that it is beyond anything you can possibly understand. A 5th grader can probably understand that better than you and your analysis can.

This really made me LOL...  Grin

And if you're wrong, then you will be able to get back in with 10-20% less bitcoins that you will never have again or you will have a hard time to recover... In a market that lacks offers and is full of bids.

Again. If you sold today, you've completely eliminated your risk to zero. If you don't buy a stock today and it goes up $10 tomorrow, did you lose any money? No. You're the one asking people to take risks and continue buying regardless of price -- I am not.

So what kind of conclusion is this? A "I cover my ass just in case im wrong conclusion?"

No, those are the two ways sell-offs tend to precipitate after a parabolic move.

Why is $100 a key psychological level? 32 wasn't a big deal psychologically speaking, $50 wasn't either, where is the psycho-logical explanation for the $100 level? Is it because it has two zeros? Not sure i understand please explain further.

If I offered to give you $100 today or $105 two months from now, which one would you choose?


Why the crash will be much worse? Because its more money? You need to think percentages, 2% of 100 is way more than 2% of 30, and the more adoption in the coin will without a doubt impact how bitcoin fluctuates bitcoin is way too young and way too exposed to pump and dumps, once we surpass a few billion dollars in market cap, then the coin will be much harder to move, at least at the same levels of fluctuations that we have nowadays.

I'm unable to discern anything from this other than opinionated ramblings of a perma-bull...

Why on earth would you recommend selling if you are optimistic about the future of bitcoin? Why would anyone risk and I state this again selling a few bitcoins if the long term is optimistic? What's your correction price? 40-50? That correction happened and it went up again. The coin can fluctuate as much, you won't see 20's again that's for sure, yo u most likely see $100 before seeing 20's again, so you're selling? I'm buying, I'm buying at 60, at 70, and at 80...
In 2015 ill be the guy that didn't buy that pizza for 0.5BTC and who knows, maybe 0.5 might be worth $700,000

Sigh...

So please, do sell!

Done. Enjoy.  Wink

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March 25, 2013, 05:19:14 AM
#44

A pattern like this has happened many times in the last few months allowing me to buy back in at 64 57 and even 36.8.

Yup... I think many of these are the fools who dumped all their coin during the "Night of the Long Forks" who we made thousands of $ off of by selling them back their own coin when the error was rectified.  Cool

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March 25, 2013, 05:20:11 AM
#45

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

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March 25, 2013, 05:25:54 AM
#46

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .


SO Vladimir, at what point are we at in the video right now in terms of bitcoin? lol

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March 25, 2013, 05:27:06 AM
#47

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...
not bad http://youtu.be/fYXD-_AMstQ

Los desesperados publican que lo invent el rey que rabi, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas v que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compr mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendi por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y vn subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no lleg lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvi gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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March 25, 2013, 05:27:36 AM
#48

lol, I'd say considering that we have like 7 billion people on this rock.... nahh bad idea..

It is the second guy running over the lawn to join up, while being dragged down by mtgox and his 5500 verification backlog.




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March 25, 2013, 05:31:48 AM
#49

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .


Perhaps you could learn something from that video... Do you think those people are still all dancing together in that group since they started in 2010? Or did they finally get tired, quit and go home (perhaps to dance again another day)?  Smiley

And I'm not sure using a video of a guy doing something stupid and other people following him into doing the same stupid thing was a good way to make your argument!  Grin heheh

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March 25, 2013, 05:32:26 AM
#50

Did anyone else notice the graph in the OP went back about a week and a half ago?
I found this graph somewhere else in the Speculations thread (not taking credit for it)

Is it just me, or do you see several "Double Top" Patterns in this longer-term analysis of the market? I'm not trying to be a smart ass or stir up any controversy or anything, but I would like to know what OP has to say about this.
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March 25, 2013, 05:34:13 AM
#51

@ Johnniewalker ::

Boy does that look familiar... parabola? Check... Double-top? Check... Sell-off?  Wink

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March 25, 2013, 05:35:48 AM
#52

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

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March 25, 2013, 05:36:04 AM
#53

@ Johnniewalker ::

Boy does that look familiar... parabola? Check... Double-top? Check... Sell-off?  Wink
What if in a panic I had sold in June of '09? Does your model and your encouragement to sell consider those who are in this for the "long haul"? Again, just trying to learn here.
**between Jan and June of '09
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March 25, 2013, 05:38:05 AM
#54

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.


I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  Smiley

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

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March 25, 2013, 05:42:31 AM
#55

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.


I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  Smiley

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.
I was going to say, in defense of OP you mentioned being in a car accident at the beginning of this post, I didn't see anything contradictory in that post. From time to time I check the speculation thread, just for kicks. The truth of the matter is, as Bitcoin is deflationary, the only thing I (someone in for long haul) has to worry about is some government action against Bitcoin, public interest dissipating (seems unlikely at this point), or god forbid some other, unforseen big event.
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March 25, 2013, 05:43:55 AM
#56

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.


I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  Smiley

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

Yeah sure...

I never agreed on your analysis but still was giving you credibility. Now the further this thread goes, the smaller your credibility gets. 3-5 btc should be very easy to obtain for any trader. Seriously...If you make "hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can't buy your own bitcoins...
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March 25, 2013, 05:46:26 AM
#57

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.


I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  Smiley

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.
I was going to say, in defense of OP you mentioned being in a car accident at the beginning of this post, I didn't see anything contradictory in that post. From time to time I check the speculation thread, just for kicks. The truth of the matter is, as Bitcoin is deflationary, the only thing I (someone in for long haul) has to worry about is some government action against Bitcoin, public interest dissipating (seems unlikely at this point), or god forbid some other, unforseen big event.

Hey johnniewalker, I made hundreds of thousands of dollars but I need a 5 BTC loan... Thanks ill send you my address in pvt MSG.

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March 25, 2013, 05:46:53 AM
#58

Yeah sure...

I never agreed on your analysis but still was giving you credibility. Now the further this thread goes, the smaller your credibility gets. 3-5 btc should be very easy to obtain for any trader. Seriously...If you make "hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can't buy your own bitcoins...

Yeah sure what? I got pretty seriously injured. I couldn't even get out of bed. I'm just now able to walk short distances, and my car is totaled. I just wanted a few coins for my bot which I just finished coding, and it really WASN'T worth all the pain and trouble of going to town to buy a MoneyPak or deposit money in another trader's account (I generally trade on OTC).

So no, it's most certainly NOT very easy to obtain bitcoin when you're confined to your bedroom...  Undecided

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March 25, 2013, 05:49:02 AM
#59

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.
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March 25, 2013, 05:52:54 AM
#60

I think the problem is you talk too big a game. I looked at some of your other posts... "small conglomerate startup"? Indeed.

I apologise for the ad-hominem, and pointing out your age -- but I felt I had to. Persona and ambition is all well and good... and you are numerate and literate, which is good. Unfortunately your post lacked substance.

Good luck for the future.

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March 25, 2013, 05:59:08 AM
#61

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

Good advice. But, buying again at $40 was a good trade only in retrospect. And was that not fear of missing an opportunity?

TA is uncertain and we will see false breakouts. Selling to "buy again" on a false breakout and not only did you miss an opportunity, you also lose money. That's why selling to buy dips, in an uptrend, is a losing strategy. You are very lucky to beat the market and if you keep playing, your gains will almost certainly (eventually) be less than the market.

I should know. I have only about 1/3 of the coins I had at $2.00, and I don't ever expect to recover them trading. This market is too bullish even for me. I could kick myself for trying to sell tops and buy dips ever since $2, even more than for not selling at $30 in '11 (doubled my coins rest of the way down). If one is going to trade, there will be good trades and bad ones. You don't get to look back and say "if only I had made only the good ones and none of the bad." You take the good with the bad.

So, I'm not saying that you should never take gains. But I am saying that if (like me) you can't help yourself from trading , an "all out/all in" strategy is extremely risky (due to false breakouts). If you want to pick tops, my advice (for whatever its worth) is to be patient and scale out in small portions through target ranges. Adjust your holding percentage to your degree of certainty.

There is much volatility ahead, and the less panic trading, the better (both individually and collectively).

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March 25, 2013, 06:00:33 AM
#62

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

How's that related to moving money? All you need is a computer and electricity, it's not like I have to go to a super market to get money or anything... The bank I used doesn't even have a branch in my state for crying out loud... I deposit the few checks I get using the iPhone app...
And if he's in school, I'm sure he has health insurance, and if he's not in school, and he doesn't work but he has made hundreds of thousands (not sure if we are talking about dollars here or Mardy Grass beads) then he has money to pay for his own health insurance, so having an accident, sure, pity, yet, that shouldn't be a factor here.
My contention here is that he wants an entry point lower than the current price.. But that's speculative, how whole analysis borders both ends.... He sold, but he's a bull long term... Ok I get it, he's a day trader, nothing wrong with that, yet, in his very elaborated analysis he forgot to mention what the intended audience was, I thought they teach that in college... Anyways, I'm not trying to be a troll, but those kinds of analysis just made me laugh when they fall apart, and then you still see these guys around with no shame trying to yet again, guess the future value of something and putting excuses for being totally wrong. It's ok, that a very common tale... We see that every day in the speculation board.

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March 25, 2013, 06:02:25 AM
#63

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

Correct, thank you. I didn't stay in the hospital (refused to). But it was no easier. I could've gotten a rental car or a "loaner" from the Mercedes-Benz dealership but I've been on too much pain meds to drive myself anywhere. And have more surgeries and appointments yet to come... sucks... Tongue

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March 25, 2013, 06:03:20 AM
#64

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  Wink

Good advice. But, buying again at $40 was a good trade only in retrospect. And was that not fear of missing an opportunity?

TA is uncertain and we will see false breakouts. Selling to "buy again" on a false breakout and not only did you miss an opportunity, you also lose money. That's why selling to buy dips, in an uptrend, is a losing strategy. You are very lucky to beat the market and if you keep playing, your gains will almost certainly (eventually) be less than the market.

I should know. I have only about 1/3 of the coins I had at $2.00, and I don't ever expect to recover them trading. This market is too bullish even for me. I could kick myself for trying to sell tops and buy dips ever since $2, even more than for not selling at $30 in '11 (doubled my coins rest of the way down). If one is going to trade, there will be good trades and bad ones. You don't get to look back and say "if only I had made only the good ones and none of the bad." You take the good with the bad.

So, I'm not saying that you should never take gains. But I am saying that if (like me) you can't help yourself from trading , an "all out/all in" strategy is extremely risky (due to false breakouts). If you want to pick tops, my advice (for whatever its worth) is to be patient and scale out in small portions through target ranges. Adjust your holding percentage to your degree of certainty.

There is much volatility ahead, and the less panic trading, the better (both individually and collectively).

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

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March 25, 2013, 06:16:08 AM
#65

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

Well, that's great. I hope that works out for you. You'll notice that I'm not angry about your decision to keep your coins or your bullish opinions... Yet you had to personally attack me and spend all that time to get to "I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins". Should've just said that in the first place and this thread would be much shorter...

P.S. -- Are you a college student?

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March 25, 2013, 06:23:10 AM
#66

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  Grin I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
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March 25, 2013, 06:23:48 AM
#67

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

Well, that's great. I hope that works out for you. You'll notice that I'm not angry about your decision to keep your coins or your bullish opinions... Yet you had to personally attack me and spend all that time to get to "I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins". Should've just said that in the first place and this thread would be much shorter...

P.S. -- Are you a college student?

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.
Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance. Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

And no I'm not a college student but I was many years ago...

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March 25, 2013, 06:34:51 AM
#68

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.

Absolutely not.

Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance.

I'm not a college student. That was many years ago. The intended audience was short-term traders, which is glaringly obvious from the very beginning. There is no duality of opinions. I believe a sell-off is coming, and coming soon. That is the conclusion. And I wanted to warn readers that if the price breaks the double-top formation and makes one last crazy move to the upside that they should be very cautious, because that is generally what happens at the end of a parabolic rally. So there was absolutely no contradiction; it was a net bearish post, and I stand by that opinion for better or for worse. No one is right 100% of the time and if I'm wrong it's a drop in the bucket because my money is safe.  Smiley

Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

I was never angry at any point... the only thing I've taken issue with is your use of personal attacks. I'm still not angry, and won't hold any grudges. There are much better things to get angry about, like people who don't know how to drive!  Tongue

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March 25, 2013, 06:37:05 AM
#69

Though I do not agree with your analysis, your TA was infinitely better than Lucif's who seemingly just slaps a bear chart and adds some jargon that laymen such as I cannot understand.

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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March 25, 2013, 06:41:45 AM
#70

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

And I've been around a lot longer than the both of you.  I was there in the crash, watched it go down to $2 live on goxlive, and knew one of the people who sold below $2 in November '11 ($1.994 was hit momentarily).  The temptation to sell was strong.  I held all the way through and now I'm very glad for it.  This is not June '11, not by a long shot.  We have fundamentals this time.

Never forget the fall of 2011   Cry

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March 25, 2013, 06:48:49 AM
#71

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.

Absolutely not.

Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance.

I'm not a college student. That was many years ago. The intended audience was short-term traders, which is glaringly obvious from the very beginning. There is no duality of opinions. I believe a sell-off is coming, and coming soon. That is the conclusion. And I wanted to warn readers that if the price breaks the double-top formation and makes one last crazy move to the upside that they should be very cautious, because that is generally what happens at the end of a parabolic rally. So there was absolutely no contradiction; it was a net bearish post, and I stand by that opinion for better or for worse. No one is right 100% of the time and if I'm wrong it's a drop in the bucket because my money is safe.  Smiley

Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

I was never angry at any point... the only thing I've taken issue with is your use of personal attacks. I'm still not angry, and won't hold any grudges. There are much better things to get angry about, like people who don't know how to drive!  Tongue
Well I'm glad it's settled, although I will keep my bullish approach and I respectfully disagree with your TA due to fundamentals that are stronger in my opinion than yours. Every rally needs a correction, and what I see in bitcoin that I don't see in stocks, gold, forex, silver, etc is that we are witnessing the very beginning of a world currency that has unique features and that people will eventually (when the digital divide and/or learning curve reaches the masses) adopt.
I pointed out your age, because you were 4 when mp3 started playing on 386DX computers and I witnessed what they did to the music industry, you were 10 when the edonkey network and gnutella changed the way people share files, a predecessor of the torrents, therefore, you have missed a lot of critical events that allow older people to recognize, maybe, a world changing platform/tool/currency. Time will prove or disprove my words.
Wsh you the best and hope you heal fully.

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March 25, 2013, 06:53:36 AM
#72

I believe the price will reach stability after breaking $75, meeting resistence at $90, and settling at $86.40.

See what I mean?, people coming up not with a round number, but specifically $86.40 I can't but just laugh at this kinds of posts.
Question for you sir, can I borrow that crystal ball of yours so I can play the lotto? I'm sure if you can predict with such exactitude the price for BTC, then it shouldn't be any problem to get six integers for the powerball Smiley

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March 25, 2013, 07:09:41 AM
#73

Hey guys,

As I promised some time ago I am back to do more in-depth technical analysis of the BTC/USD rate. I'd hoped to do this again much sooner, but unforeseen circumstances (e.g., nasty car accident, numerous doctors appointments) forced me to put it on hold. But it's time for my next analysis, which probably couldn't come at a more interesting time!  Cheesy

To begin, I'd let's go over a few things before we dig into the charts. Many of remember that not so long ago you could buy a bitcoin for $12 and some change. And how about today (3/24/13)? Try a whopping $71.50! ... say what?! Shocked

As with all things, we have to ask ourselves what fundamental changes have occurred in the market to drive prices to these unparalleled all-time highs. This "super-rally" took place in two distinct legs. The first leg-up of this massive super-rally took us from the $10-$12 level to the high 40s and low 50s. As I was at the time, I'm still skeptical that there was any strong fundamental factors behind that massive climb. What changed? Did we gain some new users? Yes, we did. But we did not quadruple (or even double) our user-base, so it cannot be explained by an influx of new users. So what was it? Dominos pizza? Several people told me that... but Dominos did NOT start accepting bitcoin (it's merely a third party service that orders a pizza for you if you pay them BTC). While that's definitely cool, and a small victory for Bitcoin, it's not the fundamental factor we're looking for. The most plausible explanation is that European financial woes and fear about the integrity of the banking system caused a lot more interest in bitcoin (which is true). However, it certainly wasn't enough to support a $50+ rate for our budding crypto-currency. The "math" simply doesn't work out... So it leaves us with one thing: speculation.

It seems that excitement and the general happy-go-lucky attitude of the bitcoin community is the missing "fundamental" factor we're looking for, and our big swing in price is the result of a massive influx of speculative money. These things are self-feeding... the price moves up a nice bit, you hear some good stuff in the news, you might even have gotten one of those Dominos pizzas (lol), and then you and your buddies putting your whole $350 in savings into bitcoin to join the speculative wave. That moves the price up a bit more, and people chase it -- adding more and more money into it. To an experienced day trader or a Wall Street shark, the average Bitcoin user is what we call "financially unsophisticated"... most of the market is made up of Silk Road-using teenagers, amateur speculators and amateur traders, computer geek college students and the likes... people who've never traded a share of stock, don't know what a "calender spread" or an "Iron Condor" is and have no clue how the futures market works (or in most cases what it even is). When such people see the price of something going up, they leap to the assumption that it will keep going up... perhaps forever? That's what happened in the DotCom bubble, as amateur day traders and novice speculators poured tons of money into budding tech stocks (only to be utterly destroyed). About a week ago, I asked a bitcoin trader what fundamental factors he thought was driving the market higher. His response: "Well... Bitcoin has been mentioned in the news a whole bunch lately!" And it seems he's not alone in his failure to distinguish a news headline from fundamentals...  Undecided

We have seen patterns such as this before... we saw it in the aforementioned "DotBomb"... we saw it before the real estate / MBS meltdown of 2008... and of course, we cannot forget the tulip mania of 17th century Holland. Anyone even moderately experienced with financial markets understands the concept of bubbles. And when I look at this I cannot help but notice the striking similarities between past bubbles and the precariously high price of Bitcoin. But it did not stop at $50. The crisis in Cyprus, news headlines and a myriad of rather trivial factors triggered yet another influx of speculative money driving the price yet another 50% higher. Not even the recent fork in the blockchain (which highlighted how delicate this thing can be) was enough to dissuade the crowd from dumping their savings into the mix. And when the pigs beg to be slaughtered, savvy traders are smart enough to capitalize upon the ignorance of the masses -- thus their money is added to the equation and drive prices even higher... Bubbles operate largely upon the "snowball effect" as greed rolls it up the hillside. In my last analysis I was hoping for a correction that would settle things down and give us time to catch our breath. But I still felt uncertain. I left myself room for the market blasting off like a rocket, and I'm glad I did. But this time I'm thrice as skeptical and have officially begun preparing for a big move to the downside. So let's have a look at those charts...



I've numbered my scribblings on the chart to provide some commentary...

1) Double-top Pattern (drawn in blue)

These things are always scary... Sometimes they fake us out, but a double-top is generally a very strong bearish indicator. A double-top tends to occur at the end of a large rally. The market becomes over-bought, and finally tips over as people begin selling. But just as the selling gets heated people decide to jump back in, hoping that the rally will continue. When it doesn't, and fails to break through the former resistance level, everyone begins jumping ship and it plummets. In my day trading experience I've found these things to be good indicators. The double-top pattern was what gave me the signal to sell all my gold and silver futures, mining stocks and physical bullion just under $50/oz for silver. And it has served me well on countless stocks and a myriad of smaller intra-day and swing trades.

2) Current resistance

The red line indicates the current resistance level. Lo and behold, we raced back towards that level and failed to punch through. For this rally to continue we will need to see a very strong break-out above the resistance level with heavy volume. And we're not seeing it. In fact, it looks like the rate is falling as I type.

3) Old support level

The green line is the old support level after the first leg-up of the rally. When major sell-offs occur you can usually expect some support to bunch up around the former support level, and I expect that if we see the market topple and plunge back toward the 50s. This line indicates nothing in and of itself, but I'm pointing it out so you will pay attention to it if/when the sell-off gets hot and heavy.

4) MACD

MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is one of my favorite indicators. Right now, good ol' MACD is telling us that momentum is stalling. We failed (so far) to set a new high both in price and MACD. And I've highlighted the MACD resistance level with the red line. We've been over-extended and over-bought for quite some time, and in my own experience I've found that MACD wins the tug-of-war 9 times out of 10 (hence the reason I'm willing to risk my money on it). The shrinking of the green histogram also indicates stalling momentum, and our short-term MA is beginning to slope downward -- thus making the signal more bearish. I am currently watching for a cross in the MAs, and for both to fall below the signal line (zero).

5) Stochastics

Our stochastics are also pointing towards the over-bought condition. It's all been BUY BUY BUY for weeks on end, and this tells the tale of the weakening money-flow. If you take a look at how the stochastics correspond to previous rallies and sell-offs, you can see just how useful this indicator can be. And right now it's screaming "DONT BUY! DONT BUY! DONT BUY!".

------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION ::
------------------------------------------------------

Last time I was uncertain about what was to come... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit. Profit is money you didn't have before, and now you have it. So take it off the table and enjoy it. You can stay in the shark pool if you want, but do so at your own peril. It looks like the correction is indeed very close -- no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen. If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s. So I think the smartest move you can make is to de-risk and go have some fun with your not-so-hard-earned money. :-)

However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here. The reason is because a LOT more people will get burned a LOT worse and lose a LOT more money. So it will scare off a lot of newbies and people will be scared to re-enter the market for some time. So I hope it doesn't pan out this way.

In any case, I raise my cup to a bitcoin correction. I'm optimistic about the long-term future of bitcoin, but we're way over-extended (and way over-due) for a considerable correction. We need one to settle things down and give our great crypto-currency a chance to truly grow. So have fun, and good luck no matter what the outcome!

Regards,

--ATC--

NOTE ::

If you enjoyed my analysis, learned from it and/or want to see more please support my efforts by sending a small tip to:

16CdrUgQX84ntTLS2asPhWZo1UWhFwS1KY

I give my sincerest thanks to those who have sent me (quite generous) tips for some of my past articles and analysis!  Smiley

even your red trendline was constructed wrongly. it was already broken when you drew it.



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March 25, 2013, 07:37:15 AM
#74

even your red trendline was constructed wrongly. it was already broken when you drew it.

I did draw it crooked, but I just scribbled on the chart in a hurry to highlight the things I was talking about. Wasn't going for "perfection". Trend lines are purely conceptual and do not actually exist in the real world, so there's no right or wrong way to draw one. You simply draw them to help yourself understand a chart or demonstrate something to others.

There are lots of different opinions on how to trade, how to do TA, how to do FA, how to scale positions, how to manage risk, how to allocate assets, etc... Two money-managers with opposing views can often be successful in the same market (seen it many times). Someone like deathcode might be successful this year by merely holding his coins and adding to his position, whilst I might simultaneously be successful buying the dips and selling the rips.

EDIT ::

As a general rule of thumb, however, you only want to add to your positions during substantial dips, to keep your average unit cost low...

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March 25, 2013, 07:53:39 AM
#75

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  Grin I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
I heard (emphasis on heard) that Bitcoin Gambling and Silk Road made up something like 80% of bitcoin transactions.
And you are right...*knock on wood* there is probably just more to come.
And as there continues to be no legislation regarding Bitcoins (might be wrong) its only a matter of time until organized crime gets into it to buy, sell, and launder. My only question is how have they not already?
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March 25, 2013, 08:33:05 AM
#76

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  Grin I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.
I heard (emphasis on heard) that Bitcoin Gambling and Silk Road made up something like 80% of bitcoin transactions.
And you are right...*knock on wood* there is probably just more to come.
And as there continues to be no legislation regarding Bitcoins (might be wrong) its only a matter of time until organized crime gets into it to buy, sell, and launder. My only question is how have they not already?

Money laundering was there since the beginning. There are transactions people do off exchanges. The higher the price (bitcoin market cap) and user base the more money can be laundered effectively.
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March 25, 2013, 08:45:26 AM
#77

All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market.   Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply. 

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March 25, 2013, 09:03:05 AM
#78

All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market.   Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply. 

You're not the first person to say this, and not the first person to be completely wrong about it. TA is about market psychology, and it works on anything that humans buy and sell; even tulips.  Wink

It bewilders me how people can think bitcoin has some property of "magical exemption"...  Cheesy

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March 25, 2013, 09:04:26 AM
#79

Well, I completely disagree Smiley   That is what it is, carry on.
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March 25, 2013, 09:07:00 AM
#80

Well, I completely disagree Smiley   That is what it is, carry on.

We can agree to disagree. But here's some food for thought: What moves the price of bitcoin? Does bitcoin move bitcoin, or do the humans (and the bots -- who use TA) buying and selling it move it?  Smiley

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March 25, 2013, 09:14:10 AM
#81

All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market.   Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply. 

You're not the first person to say this, and not the first person to be completely wrong about it. TA is about market psychology, and it works on anything that humans buy and sell; even tulips.  Wink

It bewilders me how people can think bitcoin has some property of "magical exemption"...  Cheesy

Sure, market sentiment between stocks and BTC speculation is analagous. However I think you have misread the fundamentals. This market is still at the nascent stage... it's just been bootstrapped. We're still at 1mBTC = $0.7, and users are flooding in. The ratio of speculation to overall transaction volume appears to be high but decreasing.

Most exciting are the new BTC-related business opportunities. Look at how a "Magic the Gathering" site has become the biggest and most trusted exchange. The ecosystem is just beginning to grow. The protocol has many new features that no-one is leveraging yet. As BTC rises and newcomers flood in, they will have a vested interest in adding to this ecosystem.

It's a positive feedback loop in the very early stages. The tulip analogy is utterly spurious (aside from the fact that tulips brought us modern stock exchanges, and Bitcoin will be equally revolutionary).

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March 25, 2013, 09:22:41 AM
#82

1mBTC = $0.07
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March 25, 2013, 09:28:14 AM
#83

1mBTC = $0.07

^ Quite right. Give it a few days then.

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March 25, 2013, 09:28:16 AM
#84

1mBTC = $0.07

Hurts my head, change it!

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March 25, 2013, 01:38:02 PM
#85

I do not understand why ATC777 is getting roasted for this. Sure, the TA isn't perfect (weekend volume, new entrants could blow through resistance, etc.)....but he has made a great attempt at offering a differing view based on short-term TA. Market psychology is market psychology, regardless of the underlying (and especially given that speculation is moving this market), which is his overall message. The main difference in BTC is the difficulty determining where we are in the cycle. These new entrants are a massive ?.

As I said in a different post yesterday, I do not see a rocket today (but could certainly and happily be wrong). BTC is so ground-breaking that, and sorry for the double-negative, we can't not get overextended. Because this is so revolutionary, extreme over-exuberance is a foregone conclusion. It's difficult determining where this pricing dislocation will take place.....$75, $100, $200.....I'm certainly having difficulty with this, but my interests are not short-term so it really doesn't matter. One thing that's different, the nature of BTC creates a news cycle lag.....and BTC logistics for the average person make it hard to determine the nature of this next wave in terms of both adoption and speculation.

I also agree with many of you in that this next wave could be imminent and very large. The next two weeks are crucial. But I'm also wondering how non-tech savvy people could become true believers so rapidly, given that it's a leap for 99% of the population to put faith in crypto-currency within a week of discovering it. It's very different than placing a broker trade trade or purchasing an asset with a long history. Yes, there is probably a sizable segment of moderately tech savvy people who know about BTC but are only just now taking the plunge. More professional money could certainly move in, leading to more speculation. And the utility for gamblers is what initially made the rise in BTC so obvious for me.

Neither side of the argument can price these things in correctly, IMO. I do not have the conviction to call a short-term top, even though my gut tells me we will not move substantially higher over the next couple of days (which is irrelevant) as many have suggested. This could easily go either way in the short-term. I may not be factoring in this next wave, which may be the beginning of something much much larger. Regardless, I am bullish for the term prospects of BTC.







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March 25, 2013, 01:56:37 PM
#86

Quote from: ATC777
...snip...
And something like this Happens


Nearly 160 THOUSAND Dollars worth of sale volume and the price surged to ~30 USD per bitcoin. But look what happens when it falls! Not even enough sale volume to put it on the map.

....snip...

So I suggest learning from past mistakes and making that little bit of profit otherwise you will be feeling like the people on the 21st through the 24th with no one to sell to (Hardly any sale volume at all, Newbies moved out along with a lot of the big money)
As seen here:


Why would you try and draw a TA conclusion from a chart when the market was closed.

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

I think anyone that has 'been around' a while would recall the mtgox hack...

You clowns think you have seen an exponential rise that *must* be followed by a correction, so you are short. You are trying to do the inverse of catching a falling knife. You are doing it with a commodity that is prone to sudden exponential rises. I think that is just crazy but each to his own.

I think there may be a correction it could happen seconds after I post this or in three months time after a run up to several hundred dollars. Maybe even fuelled by bearish short sellers being squeezed out time after time.

I am long, with tiny sell orders all the way up to skim a little spending money off the top. I am in it for the long haul though. I held through the bubble to 32 and the crash back to 2. I will hold through worse. I see 10-100k per coin in the distant future barring catastrophe.

I've been working on securing my financial future for a while, and now, it feels like I've already won.

Go ahead and short though! You might get lucky!

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March 25, 2013, 01:59:28 PM
#87

tl;dr

sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.

lol

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March 25, 2013, 02:02:36 PM
#88

tl;dr

sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.

lol

http://youtu.be/nIR759wIjdg

 Cheesy Not directed at anyone Wink

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March 25, 2013, 02:07:07 PM
#89

tl;dr

sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.

lol

http://youtu.be/nIR759wIjdg

 Cheesy Not directed at anyone Wink

hahah. irl rofl.

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March 25, 2013, 02:24:01 PM
#90

Looks like this thread could be closed now.
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March 25, 2013, 02:26:46 PM
#91

I do not understand why ATC777 is getting roasted for this. Sure, the TA isn't perfect (weekend volume, new entrants could blow through resistance, etc.)....but he has made a great attempt at offering a differing view based on short-term TA. Market psychology is market psychology, regardless of the underlying (and especially given that speculation is moving this market), which is his overall message. The main difference in BTC is the difficulty determining where we are in the cycle. These new entrants are a massive ?.

As I said in a different post yesterday, I do not see a rocket today (but could certainly and happily be wrong). BTC is so ground-breaking that, and sorry for the double-negative, we can't not get overextended. Because this is so revolutionary, extreme over-exuberance is a foregone conclusion. It's difficult determining where this pricing dislocation will take place.....$75, $100, $200.....I'm certainly having difficulty with this, but my interests are not short-term so it really doesn't matter. One thing that's different, the nature of BTC creates a news cycle lag.....and BTC logistics for the average person make it hard to determine the nature of this next wave in terms of both adoption and speculation.

I also agree with many of you in that this next wave could be imminent and very large. The next two weeks are crucial. But I'm also wondering how non-tech savvy people could become true believers so rapidly, given that it's a leap for 99% of the population to put faith in crypto-currency within a week of discovering it. It's very different than placing a broker trade trade or purchasing an asset with a long history. Yes, there is probably a sizable segment of moderately tech savvy people who know about BTC but are only just now taking the plunge. More professional money could certainly move in, leading to more speculation. And the utility for gamblers is what initially made the rise in BTC so obvious for me.

Neither side of the argument can price these things in correctly, IMO. I do not have the conviction to call a short-term top, even though my gut tells me we will not move substantially higher over the next couple of days (which is irrelevant) as many have suggested. This could easily go either way in the short-term. I may not be factoring in this next wave, which may be the beginning of something much much larger. Regardless, I am bullish for the term prospects of BTC.

You probably answered your own question. His TA is the TA of a guy who just graduated from College with a finance degree or a day trader who just passed his S7 and wants to apply every technical term he just learned in a technology that has absolutely no parallel in the industry, not to mention the fact that is brand new and completely unpredictable.
With a market capital of less than 1 billion, a ton of news coming in related to bitcoin (just look at google trend) and many financial fires across the world... betting against bitcoin is a sure loss... at least in this kind of momentum and that's why he got soem heat about it. But that's fine, those guys usually ger burned and learn their lesson and the next time, they are much wiser. Everybody has been in that situation at some point.

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March 25, 2013, 03:23:29 PM
#92

So much for that "double top"  Roll Eyes
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March 25, 2013, 03:49:04 PM
#93

So much for that "double top"  Roll Eyes

Yeah, can we bury this thread as false, erroneous. Or should we saved as an example of an epic fail?
All the lingo in the world can't save his position hehehe.

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March 25, 2013, 04:05:10 PM
#94

The thing that gets me about TA of Bitcoin prices is, a typical day trader is lucky to slightly outperform the market. Most don't. Yet when faced with a long-term exponential bull run (that could even perhaps end up as the greatest one in all of history), you have to trade so excellently that you outperform even that exponential rise. Such an amazingly gifted day trader would have to be some kind of superhero and know the market like the back of his hand. This is impossible with Bitcoin. Way too many short-term X-factors.

Also note the "I'm not losing money because I'm cashed out" nonsense. A lost opportunity, a lost (or substantially diminished) position in a meteoric bull market is an incredibly huge loss compared to what was originally held (an undiminished position in that same asset). Sure you could double your position by a lucky trade, and sure, TA can conceivably help, but see the previous paragraph for why it's *still* not worth it.

"Buy and hold: Because you may be uncommonly intelligent and skilled at TA, but your comparative advantage will never be as big as Bitcoin's rise is exponential."
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March 25, 2013, 05:02:33 PM
#95

You can't do a whole lot with a tulip and a most of those dotcom shares were from hyped up companies without any substance.

Unlike those examples, Bitcoin does have substance.  It's like somebody just discovered a strange new precious metal that can be teleported and made invisible, and now everybody wants to get their hands on it.

If this is a bubble, it will be temporary like the last one.

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March 25, 2013, 05:18:46 PM
#96

Didn't you know? BTC is unobtanium.

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March 25, 2013, 05:34:14 PM
#97

OP, How is the double top idea working out for you?  Roll Eyes

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March 25, 2013, 05:40:45 PM
#98

You can't do a whole lot with a tulip and a most of those dotcom shares were from hyped up companies without any substance.

Unlike those examples, Bitcoin does have substance.  It's like somebody just discovered a strange new precious metal that can be teleported and made invisible, and now everybody wants to get their hands on it.

If this is a bubble, it will be temporary like the last one.

Not only can you teleport it around the globe, and make it invisible for crossing border checkpoints, but it is also incredibly easy to check it to validate it is real. There is no way to fill this with tungsten and get away with it.

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March 25, 2013, 06:56:00 PM
#99

Difficult , so difficult to say how its going to pan out.

I'll say one thing though. With the dot com boom and bust, a lot of companies were selling themselves based on future predictions and fundamentals that did not exist. The infrastructure , for one , to support exponential usage (fast internet connections , mass customer usage of the net) did not exist - making their predictions flawed. Many of the business models were valid, its just their financial predictions based on the internet adoption at the time did not make sense.

IMO, with bitcoin its a bit different, just because the technology is already in existance (up to a point) and has gained a significant amount of usage. There are a number of indicators that show the technology is being used alot. (That's excluding Satoshi Dice and the large increase in price per coin, which has skewed the numbers a bit).

https://blockchain.info/charts

However there are a number of risk factors that are embedded in this that may or may not be accounted for with the current price. Certainly it is not at all certain whether bitcoin will ever gain mass adoption or usage. I think more attention should be given to the technical side. Scalability in particular is going to be an issue very soon.

I'm not really too big on technical analysis per se - I think that the charts do show some interesting information but it's just one part of the picture.
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March 25, 2013, 07:57:04 PM

OP, How is the double top idea working out for you?  Roll Eyes

What? I pointed out the pattern, and explained what they typically indicate -- no technical indicator is 101.01% accurate (e.g., seeing the exact path of the future).

You know what's funny? You are the guy who called me stupid for buying LTC at $0.04-$0.09, so let me ask you a question: how's it feel to be 1,300% wrong about that?  Roll Eyes


The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place.  Wink

I would...I've been watching this market for over a year now. I know when the price is going to go lower. Now isn't a time to buy.

 Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 08:12:26 PM

OP, keep trying to call the top of BTC.

You will become Proudhon v0.5  Tongue

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March 25, 2013, 08:14:06 PM

Yeah.... right...  Roll Eyes

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March 25, 2013, 08:19:00 PM

Yeah.... right...  Roll Eyes

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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March 25, 2013, 08:24:15 PM

Yeah.... right...  Roll Eyes

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


But that would require one to put their money where their mouth is...

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March 25, 2013, 08:25:48 PM

Yeah.... right...  Roll Eyes

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


But that would require one to put their money where their mouth is...

Yes it would. Now the ball is in ATC777's court.

I've already called him out on an escrowed bet. We'll see who is laughing all the way to the bank after this.

ATC777, bring it! lol  Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 09:01:48 PM

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

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March 25, 2013, 09:20:29 PM

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

So you gonna back up your bullshit with BTC? I made you an escrowed bet.

Chicken?  Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 09:29:38 PM

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

So you gonna back up your bullshit with BTC? I made you an escrowed bet.

Chicken?  Grin Grin Grin
I cant tell how serious you are with all the smiley faces.
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March 25, 2013, 09:32:07 PM

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

So you gonna back up your bullshit with BTC? I made you an escrowed bet.

Chicken?  Grin Grin Grin
I cant tell how serious you are with all the smiley faces.

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 Grin Grin Grin

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March 25, 2013, 09:48:06 PM

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 Grin Grin Grin

LOL you're so drove... your pride is hurt over the Litecoin thing, and now you're like a child trying to save face in front of his peers...

"My daddy IS a super millionaire! Promises! WANNA BET?! WANNA BET!? You're chicken!!!"

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!  Grin Grin Grin Grin

This is why the ignore button under your name is highlighted in orange, begging to be pressed... Go somewhere, dude...

BTW, as IF I'm going to trust any sort of bet with you and a guy named "Maged" who I don't even know, even if I cared about your wounded pride... lol

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March 25, 2013, 09:50:28 PM

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 Grin Grin Grin

I also can't understand exactly what the bet is...It seems your betting him that you made money in the past. At least as far as I can tell


LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

[/quote]

Please correct me I hope I'm wrong LOL
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March 25, 2013, 09:50:42 PM

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 Grin Grin Grin

I'm a pussy. Let it be known to all.

Oh? ^  Cheesy


LOL at least I can back up what I say with money and truth. Yes let it be known that ATC777 is a pussy who can't back up his claims.


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March 25, 2013, 09:53:29 PM

LOL you're so drove...

Smoothie isn't drove, he's a trove honest troll that calls out bullshit when he sees it!

FTFY  Grin

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March 25, 2013, 09:56:45 PM

LOL you're so drove...

Smoothie isn't drove, he's a trove honest troll that calls out bullshit when he sees it!

FTFY  Grin
Smoothie man, no disrespect intended but, You remind me of someone who runs one of the conspiracy theory websites lol

Also mind answering what exactly you want to bet about?
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March 25, 2013, 10:02:00 PM


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March 25, 2013, 10:13:30 PM

Oh, Well Like I said it's a stupid bet to bet against something that has already happened, Unless your going to win.
If your interested in buying that silver back so you can do it again I have maples going for some of the best prices around and a few bars going for spot Tongue (Not to get off topic or anything Tongue )
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March 25, 2013, 11:28:02 PM

LOL ok... enough, enough, enough... I think it's sad that we let speculation threads devolve into this sort of thing, and here's to hoping we can continue discussing the market without any more of this nonsense...

I'm wondering if we have any users from the EU in here who could shed some light on the current situation in Cyprus and what the implications of this so-called "deal" are for the global banking system and Bitcoin itself?

The Cyprus crisis seems to be one of the more important factors in the "bitcoin mania", and this "deal" could perhaps have some sway.

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March 26, 2013, 01:11:59 AM

atc cannot understand

This is not a stock
A bond
A share
A option

Its a currecny, its not a investment vehicle per se

Rather btc is a reorganisation of society.

A side effect is you wealth may be accrued who ascribe to this new paradgm sooner

It does not obey any analysis you know of or have used. Iron condors, copper crustations or any other psuedo babble you wallow in, come back to me with a physics level proof then i will listen
Even if analysis could be said to work, because anyone that could call event 0.5% consitantly would own the world in 5 years - 10 years.

Furthey the gulf for btc to grow into is all of human historys years of scams wealth dilution by QE etc for the benefit of the banksters....that is trillions upon trillions that are going to be gobbled up by btc or some other crypto.

There is only 2 ways this can go to infinty and beyond or zero.

No one has made an international currecny before, nor one that can be artifficaly manipulated, or the powerfull can just take.

This is a shift in soverignty from the state to the indivdual

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March 26, 2013, 02:34:48 AM

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 26, 2013, 02:43:49 AM

blah blah blah...

--ATC--

No you forget that TA doesn't necessarily work with bitcoin. Yes the general market movements (up and down, overprice and underpriced obviously apply)....but your double top double this double that means nothing in a freely traded market.

Most of the charts that you have likely used your TA on are markets that are MANIPULATED or REGULATED.

So no TA doesn't necessarily apply like it does to stocks, bonds, gold, or silver. All of those markets are not FREE MARKETS. There is someone who dictates the price in the general scheme of things by means of a law or a bailout or a bullshit trade, or insider trading etc.

Like I said...keep predicting...you'll end up as PROUDHON VERSION 0.5.  Grin Grin Grin

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March 26, 2013, 02:49:38 AM

The trouble with technical analysis is that it can only partially work, as a hint to try to understand market sentiment.

If it consistently worked reliably, the markets wouldn't move at all, as everybody would know the tops and the bottoms. It's the same as the uncertainty principle, schrodinger's cat, et al... if it worked, it would have the result of not working.

As such, TA can only give some traders a slight edge -- not much more. And this is in a highly liquid stock market. So, dial down the TA love will you?

The key here is two-fold: (a) you have to get your fundamental analysis right BEFORE you try TA; and (b) you have to recognise what state the market is in.

For (a), I chimed in my thoughts earlier in the thread. I think you really missed the boat on doing a proper analysis of the fundamentals. This makes the TA worthless.

For (b), BTC is a currency, and as such will have a well-defined non-zero floor unless it fails. This floor could be well above where we are now. Yes, the market will be subject to waves of investor confidence, just like any other market. But you have to identify whether this market is still in the bootstrapping phase, or if it is in a steady state. I think you missed the boat here too. You used increasing money flow as indicators to bet against the price. Doesn't make sense for a currency. Do normal people "over-extend" themselves in fiat? Doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if you speculate in, say, Yen -- you're not going to end up with a worthless pile at the end, like you would do with stocks.

Yes, adoption is broadening but I don't construe that as "getting scary" -- the newcomers look to me like Redditors and other reasonably tech-savvy people. There is still a huge sector of the population who we have yet to bring on board. The broader base and the speculation itself really helps drive adoption of BTC as a currency; I see it as a positive feedback loop.

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March 26, 2013, 03:05:38 AM

The trouble with technical analysis is that it can only partially work, as a hint to try to understand market sentiment.

If it consistently worked reliably, the markets wouldn't move at all, as everybody would know the tops and the bottoms. It's the same as the uncertainty principle, schrodinger's cat, et al... if it worked, it would have the result of not working.

As such, TA can only give some traders a slight edge -- not much more. And this is in a highly liquid stock market. So, dial down the TA love will you?

The key here is two-fold: (a) you have to get your fundamental analysis right BEFORE you try TA; and (b) you have to recognise what state the market is in.

For (a), I chimed in my thoughts earlier in the thread. I think you really missed the boat on doing a proper analysis of the fundamentals. This makes the TA worthless.

For (b), BTC is a currency, and as such will have a well-defined non-zero floor unless it fails. This floor could be well above where we are now. Yes, the market will be subject to waves of investor confidence, just like any other market. But you have to identify whether this market is still in the bootstrapping phase, or if it is in a steady state. I think you missed the boat here too. You used increasing money flow as indicators to bet against the price. Doesn't make sense for a currency. Do normal people "over-extend" themselves in fiat? Doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if you speculate in, say, Yen -- you're not going to end up with a worthless pile at the end, like you would do with stocks.

Yes, adoption is broadening but I don't construe that as "getting scary" -- the newcomers look to me like Redditors and other reasonably tech-savvy people. There is still a huge sector of the population who we have yet to bring on board. The broader base and the speculation itself really helps drive adoption of BTC as a currency; I see it as a positive feedback loop.

Nice.

As a sage trader taught me, the fundamentals tell you what to trade.  The technicals tell you when to trade. But a truly sage trader doesn't stop at the technicals or fundimentals. They are able to read the psychology of the market that shows itself in the charts.
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March 26, 2013, 10:19:41 AM

Hold onto them britches, boys... It's gonna be a wild ride!  Cheesy

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March 26, 2013, 10:26:03 AM

Hold onto them britches, boys... It's gonna be a wild ride!  Cheesy

Good. Now you're doing Bitcointalk Speculation Forum Analysis.
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March 26, 2013, 10:44:03 AM



^ I believe we've gotten too carried away folks... I just hope we haven't shot ourselves in the foot and killed Bitcoin...  Undecided

This one prays for a bright future...

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March 26, 2013, 10:48:54 AM

Oh well. Bears are growling, bulls are mooing. As long as we are not oinking we are all going to be fine.


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March 26, 2013, 11:23:52 AM

Does it work for weather forecast too ?

Because I know people who spend millions of dollars launching satellites, mesuring temperatures all over the world and using giant computers just to tell me if it's gonna rain tomorrow !

If only they knew they just have to look at the chart...

That did not mean any non-financial set of data. But some. I probably should've added the word "some", but figured people were smart enough to realize I wasn't talking about, erm... the weather!  Tongue

Give it a try though... who knows!  Grin

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March 26, 2013, 12:22:34 PM

That did not mean any non-financial set of data. But some. I probably should've added the word "some", but figured people were smart enough to realize I wasn't talking about, erm... the weather!  Tongue

You may be too young to remember, but not a long time ago meteorologists used to have a frog and they were making their predictions by following - and interpreting - the movement of the frog. They succeeded most of the time because, well, the weather doesn't change so much from one day to the next.

TA does the same kind of predictions. If you just follow the trend you're right most of the time, and when the trends changes you still have 50% of chances to be right also.

Back to bitcoin : the trend today is driven by newcomers trying to get onto the train. It's a fact. It's "fondamental analysis" if you prefer. It will stop one day, but noone can say when nor at what price. Some can make bets, and some will win their bets, but it will only be that they will be more lucky than others.



Don't bother. TA is a religion to these people, and all the evidence in the world won't convince them. I guess all the people who failed to predict catastrophes using TA were just using the wrong kind, or using it in the wrong way, or were just not smart enough...  Cheesy
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March 26, 2013, 12:46:51 PM

Ev'ry so offen one a them technercull anulists come round these parts, but 'for long get run outta town by a bull stampede.

Remember the Arepo.
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March 26, 2013, 12:49:53 PM

As a matter of interest, what would need to happen before you accept that this particular call was wrong? In the OP, the price mentioned was $71.50 and there is no point selling and buying back for a couple of measly percent.

So how about if the price stays above $60 until the end of next week, say the 5th April? Would you admit that the call was wrong at that point?

"Remember too on every occasion which leads you to vexation to apply this principle: not that this is a misfortune, but that to bear it nobly is good fortune." - Marcus Aurelius
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March 26, 2013, 12:54:14 PM

As a matter of interest, what would need to happen before you accept that this particular call was wrong? In the OP, the price mentioned was $71.50 and there is no point selling and buying back for a couple of measly percent.

So how about if the price stays above $60 until the end of next week, say the 5th April? Would you admit that the call was wrong at that point?

That's why it's a religion. If it were a science, it would be falsifiable...
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March 26, 2013, 01:06:46 PM

As a matter of interest, what would need to happen before you accept that this particular call was wrong? In the OP, the price mentioned was $71.50 and there is no point selling and buying back for a couple of measly percent.

So how about if the price stays above $60 until the end of next week, say the 5th April? Would you admit that the call was wrong at that point?

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

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March 26, 2013, 01:29:20 PM

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

Just to back this guy up, an ex girlfriend of mine that I met at MIT makes hundreds of thousands each year running an algorithmic trading system on her brokerage account that she developed. It's entirely based on TA concepts. Most of the best quant firms (Citadel anyone?) build systems based on TA. New research from academia has confirmed that a simple momentum indicator can be used to outperform the indices consistently. The twitter studies are revolutionary in showing how the public's mood precedes changes in market trends.

So to all the naysayers: stay stubborn and hostile, claim that only fundamentals matter and that crowd psychology does not, but the behavioral finance revolution is happening with or without your understanding.
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March 26, 2013, 01:40:08 PM

I've traded forex with Bollinger Bands and Momentum indicators in automated trading software developed in MQL4 for Metatrader 4.

Every setup (algorithm) has its risks. Nothing is bullet proof in the long run. Trust me I've done billions of simulations on different pairs of currencies with different settings.

The result: The more profit you take, the more risk you have of a margin call.

Back on topic: No one is saying TA is worthless, just that in Bitcoin it perhaps is completely irrelevant because it is a free market. Most stocks, and currency pairs traded today are MANIPULATED or REGULATED by some person, institution, bank, gov't, etc. Even gold and silver markets are rigged. My point is that TA works better in the markets where there is "stability" or "manipulation".


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March 26, 2013, 02:08:42 PM

The trouble with technical analysis is that it can only partially work, as a hint to try to understand market sentiment.

If it consistently worked reliably, the markets wouldn't move at all, as everybody would know the tops and the bottoms. It's the same as the uncertainty principle, schrodinger's cat, et al... if it worked, it would have the result of not working.

As such, TA can only give some traders a slight edge -- not much more. And this is in a highly liquid stock market. So, dial down the TA love will you?

The key here is two-fold: (a) you have to get your fundamental analysis right BEFORE you try TA; and (b) you have to recognise what state the market is in.

For (a), I chimed in my thoughts earlier in the thread. I think you really missed the boat on doing a proper analysis of the fundamentals. This makes the TA worthless.

For (b), BTC is a currency, and as such will have a well-defined non-zero floor unless it fails. This floor could be well above where we are now. Yes, the market will be subject to waves of investor confidence, just like any other market. But you have to identify whether this market is still in the bootstrapping phase, or if it is in a steady state. I think you missed the boat here too. You used increasing money flow as indicators to bet against the price. Doesn't make sense for a currency. Do normal people "over-extend" themselves in fiat? Doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if you speculate in, say, Yen -- you're not going to end up with a worthless pile at the end, like you would do with stocks.

Yes, adoption is broadening but I don't construe that as "getting scary" -- the newcomers look to me like Redditors and other reasonably tech-savvy people. There is still a huge sector of the population who we have yet to bring on board. The broader base and the speculation itself really helps drive adoption of BTC as a currency; I see it as a positive feedback loop.

I agree with some of what you're saying (fundamentals are key, use TA to enter trade after you nail down the fundamentals, etc). But also remember that there is an entire multi-billion$ industry of systematic trading programs that are strictly technical and do not use fundamentals at all. Actually, it's a trillion+ dollar industry. But yes, that couldn't apply to the nascent BTC at this stage.

a) Fundamental analysis with BTC is murky. Unlike a stock or currency, where one has quarterly reports to assess product adoption (which are fairly predictable) or Fed meetings to assess monetary policy, one can only make shots in the dark at exactly how BTC will be adopted by the average person and how these new users (or potential of new users) affects BTC price. There will always be a disconnect....it's difficult to determine how Google hits, new MT Gox accounts, new BTC users, Cyprus, etc, affects the price of BTC (because of its nature) other than to make an educated guess that BTC will likely go up, probably not go down over the next couple of weeks. But one also has to factor what will happen if BTC is over-extended because speculation has pushed us too high, too fast, especially vis--vis actual adoption....

BTC at 40 - 75 was very obvious. BTC at 75-100, less obvious yet quite possible approaching the end of this month. So, in the sense that BTC has difficult fundamentals, the only constant is TA. ATC777 was simply offering a potential scenario......it didn't happen this time for fundamental reasons but at some point it will probably play out exactly as he described.

b) BTC is becoming a currency and USD/BTC is a currency pair. Normal people over-extend themselves if they trade currencies via FOREX, which is Mt Gox w/optional leverage). Yes, currency pairs get over-extended all the time: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/forex-flash-eurusd-somewhat-overextended-now-tds-cm229644 .

I agree, this is probably not 'getting scary' but one never knows when it is getting scary until after the fact so one plays out different scenarios. The statements below are frightening.

"Its a currecny, its not a investment vehicle per se"

"Rather btc is a reorganisation of society."

"A side effect is you wealth may be accrued who ascribe to this new paradgm sooner"

Arrogance can be frightening as well. Everyone is acting like the success of BTC is a foregone conclusion and it's not.....there is more risk and potential reward in BTC than just about anything else. I've never met a successful trader or money manager who is arrogant, and I know managers that dwarf the market cap of BTC (not saying much in fund world) several times over. I am no expert, but I know enough not to be so arrogant. The most dangerous time for BTC is now -- when Joe Consumer is just now hearing about Bitcoin. The tech savvy partipants were the easy sell. If Joe Consumer isn't sold, BTC will have major issues.......


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March 26, 2013, 02:27:29 PM

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

Just to back this guy up, an ex girlfriend of mine that I met at MIT makes hundreds of thousands each year running an algorithmic trading system on her brokerage account that she developed. It's entirely based on TA concepts. Most of the best quant firms (Citadel anyone?) build systems based on TA. New research from academia has confirmed that a simple momentum indicator can be used to outperform the indices consistently. The twitter studies are revolutionary in showing how the public's mood precedes changes in market trends.

So to all the naysayers: stay stubborn and hostile, claim that only fundamentals matter and that crowd psychology does not, but the behavioral finance revolution is happening with or without your understanding.

+1
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March 26, 2013, 05:39:00 PM

TA do not fit with BTC.. BTC are so different of other stock, .. 80% of TA I saw posted here have been proven wrong !
BTC to the moon, fasten your seatbelt !
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March 26, 2013, 05:56:47 PM

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

Just to back this guy up, an ex girlfriend of mine that I met at MIT makes hundreds of thousands each year running an algorithmic trading system on her brokerage account that she developed. It's entirely based on TA concepts. Most of the best quant firms (Citadel anyone?) build systems based on TA. New research from academia has confirmed that a simple momentum indicator can be used to outperform the indices consistently. The twitter studies are revolutionary in showing how the public's mood precedes changes in market trends.

So to all the naysayers: stay stubborn and hostile, claim that only fundamentals matter and that crowd psychology does not, but the behavioral finance revolution is happening with or without your understanding.

+1

-21,000,001  Cheesy

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March 26, 2013, 07:28:04 PM

-21,000,001  Cheesy

Underflow?
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March 27, 2013, 12:43:11 AM

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

You really should give it a rest... I'd hate to think that your reading comprehension skills are that poor... Roll Eyes

At no point did I ever point at any particular price and call it an exact top (that's virtually impossible to get right). Instead, I highlighted some potential areas of interest in the charts, explained what technical indicators can imply and offered potential scenarios for a price correction. And I disclosed the fact that I have sold and am currently on the sidelines watching this thing... You can disregard technicals if you like, but don't come crying to me when you buy into a massive head & shoulders and get taken to the woodshed (which might happen sooner than you think).

It's easy for everyone to think they're expert traders in roaring bull market, like so many did in the DotCom boom, but it will be interesting to see how many of you are left standing the first time we hit a bump in the road.  Wink

Regards,

--ATC--

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March 27, 2013, 01:15:54 AM

No, the whole point is you don't need to risk short-term trading in a bull market, and shouldn't risk short-term trading in a meteoric bull market or else you risk - yes, risk - losing all or part of your position. For it to be worth it, the exceptionalness of your trading skill has to be larger than the exponent of Bitcoin's exponential growth. That's a tall order.

We are going to (apparently already did) take your position away from you and you'll likely have to pay dearly to get part of it back.

You may be smart enough to be a successful trader, but it seems you're not discerning enough to know when that intelligence is irrelevant. Dumb people who just know to buy and hold will continue to shrink your position in this massive bull run until you gain that wisdom.
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March 27, 2013, 01:26:11 AM

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

You really should give it a rest... I'd hate to think that your reading comprehension skills are that poor... Roll Eyes

At no point did I ever point at any particular price and call it an exact top (that's virtually impossible to get right). Instead, I highlighted some potential areas of interest in the charts, explained what technical indicators can imply and offered potential scenarios for a price correction. And I disclosed the fact that I have sold and am currently on the sidelines watching this thing... You can disregard technicals if you like, but don't come crying to me when you buy into a massive head & shoulders and get taken to the woodshed (which might happen sooner than you think).

It's easy for everyone to think they're expert traders in roaring bull market, like so many did in the DotCom boom, but it will be interesting to see how many of you are left standing the first time we hit a bump in the road.  Wink

Regards,

--ATC--

That's not my point my point.
If I were you,I'd stop recommending anything... Smiley
even more... you should "tip" the people that follow your poor advice since you ask for tips when giving advice... seems only fair... since your TA doesn't have a disclaimer that says that people should seek guidance with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
No, it's easy to think you know anything when in fact, it's been proven that your analysis does not apply to bitcoin, your advise, so far has been incorrect, and you lost money, or as you like to call it, you lost an opportunity.

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March 27, 2013, 01:53:07 AM

That's not my point my point.

So much LOL here I probably shouldn't even touch it... but I'm not sure what is your point your point... Did you make a point a point?  Roll Eyes

I thought I'd succeeded in making peace with you several pages back, but I'm beginning to think you're simply determined to be an arrogant douchebag who has nothing better to do than insult other people in vain attempts to make yourself look good (which unfortunately has failed  Undecided). I'm a pretty easy-going guy, and I don't like to hold grudges... but I must admit I've rarely encountered anyone with such an abrasive personality.

If I were you,I'd stop recommending anything... Smiley

If I were you I would stop being such a ______________ ... <-- I'll leave that to your imagination.  Smiley

even more... you should "tip" the people that follow your poor advice since you ask for tips when giving advice... seems only fair...

Give me your wallet address... the day you go broke I will be kind enough to help you out. Ramen noodles don't come cheap!

since your TA doesn't have a disclaimer that says that people should seek guidance with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This is a speculation forum, and people are going to have different opinions on how to speculate. This is normal. I see people with opinions different from mine all over the internet, but I've never managed to get my panties tied in knots like you have. And I respect the readers here enough so as not to assume they are complete idiots... If anyone here is naive enough to take out a second mortgage and follow the recommendations of a guy on the internet with their entire life's savings then they had no business in the speculation business...

No, it's easy to think you know anything when in fact, it's been proven that your analysis does not apply to bitcoin, your advise, so far has been incorrect [...]

Oh, it's been "proven" now, has it? Dude, c'mon... I'm not sure if I should give you the "Troll of the Year" award or pray for you... Roll Eyes

[...] and you lost money, or as you like to call it, you lost an opportunity.

LOLOLOL... Last time I checked I still had exactly the same amount of money as when I sold my coins. Taking a profit has never hurt anyone. You have this ass-backwards. You would be right if bitcoin was our national currency or if the majority of the world's population accepted bitcoin, but at this point in time bitcoin is still a very small, niche currency. You can't go into Walmart and buy groceries with bitcoins. Where I am from, the US dollar is still the base currency. Either you are incredibly confused or you have the most distorted perception of financial risk I've ever heard tell of...

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March 27, 2013, 03:21:45 AM

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?
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March 27, 2013, 04:15:40 AM

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?

Nah, I'm done giving him crap... it's just fun to see how these kind of guys think they can throw a few big words into a TA and they  will sound smart, and then when they are wrong they try to minimize their mistakes.
I hope he learned a lesson from this. I won't comment on this thread anymore. I'll let him and his hundreds of thousands of dollars leave in peace!
Plus, he's the one that started again with his comments, I didn't post any comments directed to him anymore, so I'll be the bigger person here and I'll be quiet now.

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March 27, 2013, 06:19:15 AM

Nah, I'm done giving him crap... it's just fun to see how these kind of guys think they can throw a few big words into a TA and they  will sound smart, and then when they are wrong they try to minimize their mistakes.
I hope he learned a lesson from this. I won't comment on this thread anymore. I'll let him and his hundreds of thousands of dollars leave in peace!
Plus, he's the one that started again with his comments, I didn't post any comments directed to him anymore, so I'll be the bigger person here and I'll be quiet now.

I don't see why we don't just discuss Bitcoin without getting personal... you say "I'm done giving him crap" but then you make another smart-ass comment or two (e.g., "I'll let him and his hundreds of thousands of dollars leave in peace!"). You know as well as I do that I did not say I'm holding multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars, but that TA has brought me several hundred thousand in trading profits (meaning over the course of years). You've spent a lot of your time trying your best to attack me on everything you perceive as a chink in my armor, and working hard to distort what I've said to suit your trolling endeavor... time you could've used reading a good book, learning a new skill or perhaps discussing Bitcoin in a civilized fashion. Your behavior is the problem, not me or my thread... And it's your behavior (not your opinions on the price of Bitcoin) that I take issue with.

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?

I appreciate the looking out, but I'm sure he will try to attack again. But we can hope not, and we can also hope that we can just discuss bitcoin and trading...  Undecided

And you are right, this wasn't a this is exactly what's going to happen at the exact price of $XX.xx thread. I'm still unsure what's being called "inaccurate" though because nothing has yet happened that is out of line with my expectation. The point of my thread is that I feel we are very near the end of a parabolic surge in price and a correction is coming soon. And reaching at or near $100 was not off the table. A lot of people want the price to go to 100 and believe it will go to 100, and it just might. And it's my thinking that if we do stretch up to 100 it will most likely be a very long, rapid move -- the situation will then deteriorate into panic selling. Not unless we punch through $100 and stabilize there will I be surprised...

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March 27, 2013, 06:21:10 AM

Give the guy (ATC) a break. This is, after all, the Speculation thread, not the This is Exactly What is Going to Happen thread. He obviously put a lot of time and thought into his analysis, and I enjoyed reviewing it. Would you rather he just didn't post it? Should we burn all the threads that prove not to be 100% accurate?
yes  Cheesy

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
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    d██████████████████████████████   
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 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
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March 27, 2013, 06:28:48 AM

A little teddy bear walked out to the street and here is this shit going on



Who the hell could have expected that!

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March 27, 2013, 06:30:45 AM

I don't see why we don't just discuss Bitcoin without getting personal...

Welcome to Bitcointalk.  Cheesy

One off NP-Hard.
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March 27, 2013, 07:20:32 AM

A little teddy bear walked out to the street and here is this shit going on



Who the hell could have expected that!


Looks like fun.   Cheesy

FYI: We are planning a fun, harmless "10% Attack" on the ETH/ICO Bubble Game.
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March 27, 2013, 07:25:27 AM

...Even gold and silver markets are rigged...

Remember the famous MtGox account with 500,000BTC in it? That's a large pile of play money in a relatively small market.

FYI: We are planning a fun, harmless "10% Attack" on the ETH/ICO Bubble Game.
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March 27, 2013, 07:26:04 AM

If you read this post, please never share the info with anyone, it is too valuable.
Promise or don't read anymore.   Cheesy

...shouldn't risk short-term trading in a meteoric bull market or else...

Is it a a meteoric bull market?
Yes obviously.

You shouldn't risk short-term trading?
Fact: Every time the market corrects 5% to 35% your buy and hold dogma (temporarily) loses the entire 5% to 35%.
Solution: Edit: ____ as a ____, totally separate from your precious buy and hold stash, and...
Make frequent trades through _____ and _____ the market. Important! you need to know ___ _____ .
<joke>
Tip me and I'll fill in the blanks
</joke?>


More facts: Since March 3rd BTC is up almost exactly $50
Buy and hold = +$50

We have had brief down turns of at least
$16
$10
$4+
$12
$5.5+
and from ~74.90 to low $52 was a huge
$22.50+
and several others of at least $3.

Adding up only the ones above the last line, we get down/back up moves of $70+


Current Stats:
Buy and hold = +$50
down/back up moves of $70+ (Note: This number is really much higher, the estimate is conservative)

Does everyone/anyone know how to make low risk money off of those facts?
I'm *not* suggesting hitting the exact top bottom every time (small moves equal small fast profits, big moves equal bigger fast profits), but am saying the opportunities are amazing.

Please do not tell anyone else, let's just keep this between you and me.

BTCBTCBTC
ps. I had to spend most of my fun money on helping a family member with medical emergencies/bills, please send a generous tip here:
BTC
15DYJpWJe9H1YofsNQbP9JEWWNn7XPZgbS  |  LTC:  LTgZUWRqFf9DVADQTbPVEW3BxQUku5uF99


FYI: We are planning a fun, harmless "10% Attack" on the ETH/ICO Bubble Game.
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March 27, 2013, 07:31:53 AM

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  Smiley

Regards,

--ATC--

simple maths proves you wrong if TA could return you even 0.5% then each day you could make this, which gives over 10 years
P(t) = P(1.005)^3650 = 80,561,104.4.

No one has invested $1 and returned 80 Million with TA over a 10 year period.

Plenty of people and institutions have been trading using TA for 10 - 30 years

over 30 years it is 5.22849E+23, that's more money that there is in the universe

so keep sucking it up while the hard maths shows you up.

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March 27, 2013, 08:01:47 AM

@ jubalix: No offense to you, personally, but that is the silliest thing I've heard anyone say about TA yet!  Grin

Bit_Happy makes a very good point, except I wouldn't even call "buy and hold" a real "strategy"... I heard a couple people mention holding their coins through the 2011 spike and crash, and still holding those same coins. That's not really something to be proud of, imho, and wasn't a wise financial decision. Imagine how much better those people would've done if they'd sold their coins for $30 (shit, even in the $20 or even $15) and then bought bitcoin again when it was near its lows. That would be a lot of money, especially if they had a good bit of coin to begin with.

Many people had thousands of coins they mined on their CPUs. And only a few of those people are actually "rich" from their bitcoin endeavors. Just imagine starting in the early days of bitcoin and mining 1,000 BTC on your CPU. Then you made the wise decision to sell near the 2011 peak (let's say $22.50) and walked away with $22,500 USD. Then you used that $22.5k to re-create your position for $5/BTC. You'd have been able to purchase 4,500 BTC, which today would have a net value of over $360,000. Not bad eh?

But what did most people do? They kept on buying BTC as the price climbed towards the peak, then panicked and sold everything into the crash and now many of those same people are probably chasing this parabola all the way to the top -- repeating the same self-destructive behavior once again... Great strategy... Roll Eyes

"Buy and hold" is one of the worst ways anyone could possibly try to manage their money... It might've been a good idea for your grandparents' generation investing in stocks to plan for retirement, but not in the internet age where information instantly spreads around the world and money can be moved electronically.

Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

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March 27, 2013, 08:16:53 AM

....
Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

Good question:
Right now when it goes (for example) from 74.9 / 52.3 / 73 pause..pause ..  everyone expects to break the previous high, just like so many times before.
Using the newer numbers, what if we do 85.33 / ~63 / 84.5 pause. , then it goes back down to ~62 will you sell there, or will a bounce to ~79 restore confidence? Now, if it goes below $59 (for example) after the initial recovery and no new high, are you getting nervous?

Back up to $67 Rally!
Oh no $49...$34.. $21.... $19 (for example)... Stop selling you should be buying now not panicking.

Question for anyone: Even if you never panic sell, how do you decide when to take profits?

FYI: We are planning a fun, harmless "10% Attack" on the ETH/ICO Bubble Game.
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March 27, 2013, 04:39:49 PM

I'm *not* suggesting hitting the exact top bottom every time (small moves equal small fast profits, big moves equal bigger fast profits), but am saying the opportunities are amazing.

No shit, Sherlock. No one is debating that it's possible to make more money by short-term trading. The question is whether anyone can consistently outperform the market to a degree that exceeds the exponential factor of BTC price growth. You have made absolutely no argument.
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March 27, 2013, 04:46:29 PM

Bit_Happy makes a very good point, except I wouldn't even call "buy and hold" a real "strategy"... I heard a couple people mention holding their coins through the 2011 spike and crash, and still holding those same coins. That's not really something to be proud of, imho, and wasn't a wise financial decision. Imagine how much better those people would've done if they'd sold their coins for $30 (shit, even in the $20 or even $15) and then bought bitcoin again when it was near its lows. That would be a lot of money, especially if they had a good bit of coin to begin with.

Many people had thousands of coins they mined on their CPUs. And only a few of those people are actually "rich" from their bitcoin endeavors. Just imagine starting in the early days of bitcoin and mining 1,000 BTC on your CPU. Then you made the wise decision to sell near the 2011 peak (let's say $22.50) and walked away with $22,500 USD. Then you used that $22.5k to re-create your position for $5/BTC. You'd have been able to purchase 4,500 BTC, which today would have a net value of over $360,000. Not bad eh?

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Hindsight is 20/20.

But what did most people do? They kept on buying BTC as the price climbed towards the peak, then panicked and sold everything into the crash and now many of those same people are probably chasing this parabola all the way to the top -- repeating the same self-destructive behavior once again... Great strategy... Roll Eyes

Sorry to be Captain Obvious, but it's not "buy and hold" if you panic sell midway through Roll Eyes

And when do people take profits? When they need money or want to up their standard of living. Simple really.
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March 27, 2013, 05:07:23 PM

I can't believe there are still bears who are holding Bitcoin at this price.

If there are they must be actually be short-term bulls.

Since there is no way to easily short-sell Bitcoins.

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March 27, 2013, 05:17:45 PM

[...] and you lost money, or as you like to call it, you lost an opportunity.

LOLOLOL... Last time I checked I still had exactly the same amount of money as when I sold my coins. Taking a profit has never hurt anyone.

"Taking a profit" is a loose term, and you're using that looseness to hide your errors from yourself. A more precise phrasing is "moving your assets from Bitcoin to fiat."

With the more accurate terminology there is no vagueness to hide in; if Bitcoin outperforms fiat, you will be forced to look back and say, "I hurt myself by giving up a more valuable asset for a less valuable one. I do not have the same amount of buying power as when I sold my coins, even though I have the same amount of fiat money."
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March 27, 2013, 08:14:03 PM

well so far we have seen what we called a quadruple top... Smiley

You really should give it a rest... I'd hate to think that your reading comprehension skills are that poor... Roll Eyes

At no point did I ever point at any particular price and call it an exact top (that's virtually impossible to get right). Instead, I highlighted some potential areas of interest in the charts, explained what technical indicators can imply and offered potential scenarios for a price correction. And I disclosed the fact that I have sold and am currently on the sidelines watching this thing... You can disregard technicals if you like, but don't come crying to me when you buy into a massive head & shoulders and get taken to the woodshed (which might happen sooner than you think).

It's easy for everyone to think they're expert traders in roaring bull market, like so many did in the DotCom boom, but it will be interesting to see how many of you are left standing the first time we hit a bump in the road.  Wink

Regards,

--ATC--

And how many times were you explained why the Dotcom bubble and the bitcoin aren't comparable. Is it that you, too, have poor reading skills, or is it because you just won't accept the fact that your comparison is...well, inappropriate?

And no, this wouldn't be the first bump in the road....
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March 27, 2013, 09:40:03 PM

I can't believe there are still bears who are holding Bitcoin at this price.

If there are they must be actually be short-term bulls.

Since there is no way to easily short-sell Bitcoins.

bitfinex.com is actually quite simple to use (I am not sure how secure the site is, but it works for short selling and long buying with margin)

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March 27, 2013, 09:43:19 PM

Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

Well call me crazy, but I'm going to "hold", and who knows I may even go crazy and you know "buy". You see how that works?

It's a complex strategy, I know, I can see why you aren't getting it.

Its right up there with the other widely derided strategies such as dollar cost averaging. Another proven to be effective, but ignored by everyone because it doesn't show how much smarter they are than everyone else, strategy. Although of course you don't call it a strategy. Oh no, strategies have to be super clever...

Taking profits? I don't take profits. I hedge against catastrophic failure by converting small amounts of bitcoin to fiat at a set multiple. Formulaic, guaranteed income. A bit like dividends - theres another unfashionable ignored and hugely profitable aspect of investing. Oh I used the I(nvesting) word instead of the T(rading) word. Guess that reveals my dim wittedness.

Emotion will defeat you. Stick to the plan. Kiss.

One small point: You still never acknowledged the fact that one of your cornerstone points in your initial TA about there being no buyers after a sell off was a glaring and incompetent error, based on your ignorance of what actually happened.

hint: gox was shut after a hack.

anyone that simply held through it all, remained unaffected.

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March 27, 2013, 10:04:54 PM

+1


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March 27, 2013, 10:18:56 PM

Not expecting a correction of some magnitude is to completely ignore the fact the Bitcoin has constantly gone from under valued to overvalued - as before once it becomes overvalued Bitcoin will take a haircut. Only those that got in late and sell low will be affected. Dreams of a $700 Bitcoin will put on the shelf for a few months until the next euphoric bull run.
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March 27, 2013, 10:20:08 PM

Might I ask what you guys are going to do if (or perhaps when) Bitcoin experiences its next crash?  Smiley

Well call me crazy, but I'm going to "hold", and who knows I may even go crazy and you know "buy". You see how that works?

It's a complex strategy, I know, I can see why you aren't getting it.

Its right up there with the other widely derided strategies such as dollar cost averaging. Another proven to be effective, but ignored by everyone because it doesn't show how much smarter they are than everyone else, strategy. Although of course you don't call it a strategy. Oh no, strategies have to be super clever...

Taking profits? I don't take profits. I hedge against catastrophic failure by converting small amounts of bitcoin to fiat at a set multiple. Formulaic, guaranteed income. A bit like dividends - theres another unfashionable ignored and hugely profitable aspect of investing. Oh I used the I(nvesting) word instead of the T(rading) word. Guess that reveals my dim wittedness.

Emotion will defeat you. Stick to the plan. Kiss.

One small point: You still never acknowledged the fact that one of your cornerstone points in your initial TA about there being no buyers after a sell off was a glaring and incompetent error, based on your ignorance of what actually happened.

hint: gox was shut after a hack.

anyone that simply held through it all, remained unaffected.

This guy. +1

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March 27, 2013, 10:23:21 PM

Not expecting a correction of some magnitude is to completely ignore the fact the Bitcoin has constantly gone from under valued to overvalued - as before once it becomes overvalued Bitcoin will take a haircut. Only those that got in late and sell low will be affected. Dreams of a $700 Bitcoin will put on the shelf for a few months until the next euphoric bull run.

But how can be know it is overvalued if the world still has no clue what a bitcoin is worth?  Price discovery is always a volatile process and only hindsight will determine what is over/under valued.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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March 27, 2013, 10:35:06 PM

Not expecting a correction of some magnitude is to completely ignore the fact the Bitcoin has constantly gone from under valued to overvalued - as before once it becomes overvalued Bitcoin will take a haircut. Only those that got in late and sell low will be affected. Dreams of a $700 Bitcoin will put on the shelf for a few months until the next euphoric bull run.

But how can be know it is overvalued if the world still has no clue what a bitcoin is worth?  Price discovery is always a volatile process and only hindsight will determine what is over/under valued.

Exactly right, volatility is to be expected. Be <a href ='http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com'>antifragile</a> with your strategy.

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March 28, 2013, 07:02:33 AM

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:



When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

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March 28, 2013, 07:19:33 AM

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:

When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

You can keep lolling, but the people on this forum were probably talking about the reorganisation of society when bitcoin was still <$1. 
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March 28, 2013, 07:47:56 AM

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:

When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

You can keep lolling, but the people on this forum were probably talking about the reorganisation of society when bitcoin was still <$1. 

^ This. Go to the speculation forum and click on page 72. Look at the bear posts. Is anything new here?

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March 28, 2013, 07:51:28 AM

I just re-read the OP's post and rather than just say he's wrong outright let's use his own recommendations and timeline to ascertain conclusively whether he is right or wrong

To be fair to the OP, here's his conclusion

Quote
... but this time I'm going to go out on a limb and make you a clear-cut suggestion: sell. I'm selling. We've all made a lot of money, and no one has ever been hurt taking a profit. Profit is money you didn't have before, and now you have it. So take it off the table and enjoy it. You can stay in the shark pool if you want, but do so at your own peril. It looks like the correction is indeed very close -- no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen. If you're patient and smart, you might be able to buy back your bitcoins in the $30s or $40s in another 7-14 days.... or at least in the 50s

In summary, for him to be right (with an original post date at March 25th), bitcoin price needs to be below $60 no later than April 8th. If price enters $30-40 in the same timeframe, he gets top marks

He throws in a lot of mights, maybes, its possible, and even a caveat after the text I quoted above but theres no way to argue against the fact that he made a recommendation based on his TA and the quoted text is it

So let's see if he's right or wrong April 8th. In the meantime we can continue the debate.

BTW I'm long bitcoin but consider myself a neutral observer. He could be right. We'll know soon enough

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March 28, 2013, 11:46:18 AM

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:



When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles.  Cheesy

What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.

Good luck, everyone!

 Grin Grin Grin

I agree the chart applies, but you are nowhere near paradigm shift.

Do a spot survey of everyone you know IRL and come back with a percentage of people that know about bitcoin.

I could probably think of a few hundred people I know, and as far as I know *none* of them know about bitcoin, unless I told them. Any one of them, if they found out about BTC would almost definitely speak to me about it because they know I am the nerdy one.

Media Attention is just kicking in, I suspect insititutional investors might be taking it seriously. If anything the bubble to 32 was the first sell off.

Until you grasp the relative numbers involved 21million coins vs XX trillions of dollars (not billions) you are always going to come up short when you guess the end game exchange rate.


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