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Author Topic: BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?  (Read 19427 times)
BitPirate
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March 25, 2013, 09:14:10 AM
 #81

All I'll say is, this isn't a stock we're talking about, nor is it a traditional market.   Bitcoin is its own beast and typical trading rules, market analysis and TA (which I often have issues with at the best of times) simply do not apply. 

You're not the first person to say this, and not the first person to be completely wrong about it. TA is about market psychology, and it works on anything that humans buy and sell; even tulips.  Wink

It bewilders me how people can think bitcoin has some property of "magical exemption"...  Cheesy

Sure, market sentiment between stocks and BTC speculation is analagous. However I think you have misread the fundamentals. This market is still at the nascent stage... it's just been bootstrapped. We're still at 1mBTC = $0.7, and users are flooding in. The ratio of speculation to overall transaction volume appears to be high but decreasing.

Most exciting are the new BTC-related business opportunities. Look at how a "Magic the Gathering" site has become the biggest and most trusted exchange. The ecosystem is just beginning to grow. The protocol has many new features that no-one is leveraging yet. As BTC rises and newcomers flood in, they will have a vested interest in adding to this ecosystem.

It's a positive feedback loop in the very early stages. The tulip analogy is utterly spurious (aside from the fact that tulips brought us modern stock exchanges, and Bitcoin will be equally revolutionary).

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March 25, 2013, 09:22:41 AM
 #82

1mBTC = $0.07
BitPirate
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March 25, 2013, 09:28:14 AM
 #83

1mBTC = $0.07

^ Quite right. Give it a few days then.

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March 25, 2013, 09:28:16 AM
 #84

1mBTC = $0.07

Hurts my head, change it!

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March 25, 2013, 01:38:02 PM
 #85

I do not understand why ATC777 is getting roasted for this. Sure, the TA isn't perfect (weekend volume, new entrants could blow through resistance, etc.)....but he has made a great attempt at offering a differing view based on short-term TA. Market psychology is market psychology, regardless of the underlying (and especially given that speculation is moving this market), which is his overall message. The main difference in BTC is the difficulty determining where we are in the cycle. These new entrants are a massive ?.

As I said in a different post yesterday, I do not see a rocket today (but could certainly and happily be wrong). BTC is so ground-breaking that, and sorry for the double-negative, we can't not get overextended. Because this is so revolutionary, extreme over-exuberance is a foregone conclusion. It's difficult determining where this pricing dislocation will take place.....$75, $100, $200.....I'm certainly having difficulty with this, but my interests are not short-term so it really doesn't matter. One thing that's different, the nature of BTC creates a news cycle lag.....and BTC logistics for the average person make it hard to determine the nature of this next wave in terms of both adoption and speculation.

I also agree with many of you in that this next wave could be imminent and very large. The next two weeks are crucial. But I'm also wondering how non-tech savvy people could become true believers so rapidly, given that it's a leap for 99% of the population to put faith in crypto-currency within a week of discovering it. It's very different than placing a broker trade trade or purchasing an asset with a long history. Yes, there is probably a sizable segment of moderately tech savvy people who know about BTC but are only just now taking the plunge. More professional money could certainly move in, leading to more speculation. And the utility for gamblers is what initially made the rise in BTC so obvious for me.

Neither side of the argument can price these things in correctly, IMO. I do not have the conviction to call a short-term top, even though my gut tells me we will not move substantially higher over the next couple of days (which is irrelevant) as many have suggested. This could easily go either way in the short-term. I may not be factoring in this next wave, which may be the beginning of something much much larger. Regardless, I am bullish for the term prospects of BTC.







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March 25, 2013, 01:56:37 PM
 #86

Quote from: ATC777
...snip...
And something like this Happens


Nearly 160 THOUSAND Dollars worth of sale volume and the price surged to ~30 USD per bitcoin. But look what happens when it falls! Not even enough sale volume to put it on the map.

....snip...

So I suggest learning from past mistakes and making that little bit of profit otherwise you will be feeling like the people on the 21st through the 24th with no one to sell to (Hardly any sale volume at all, Newbies moved out along with a lot of the big money)
As seen here:


Why would you try and draw a TA conclusion from a chart when the market was closed.

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriate

I think anyone that has 'been around' a while would recall the mtgox hack...

You clowns think you have seen an exponential rise that *must* be followed by a correction, so you are short. You are trying to do the inverse of catching a falling knife. You are doing it with a commodity that is prone to sudden exponential rises. I think that is just crazy but each to his own.

I think there may be a correction it could happen seconds after I post this or in three months time after a run up to several hundred dollars. Maybe even fuelled by bearish short sellers being squeezed out time after time.

I am long, with tiny sell orders all the way up to skim a little spending money off the top. I am in it for the long haul though. I held through the bubble to 32 and the crash back to 2. I will hold through worse. I see 10-100k per coin in the distant future barring catastrophe.

I've been working on securing my financial future for a while, and now, it feels like I've already won.

Go ahead and short though! You might get lucky!

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March 25, 2013, 01:59:28 PM
 #87

tl;dr

sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.

lol

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March 25, 2013, 02:02:36 PM
 #88

tl;dr

sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.

lol

http://youtu.be/nIR759wIjdg

 Cheesy Not directed at anyone Wink

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March 25, 2013, 02:07:07 PM
 #89

tl;dr

sgbett: you punk, are you feeling lucky, go ahead and short then.

lol

http://youtu.be/nIR759wIjdg

 Cheesy Not directed at anyone Wink

hahah. irl rofl.

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March 25, 2013, 02:24:01 PM
 #90

Looks like this thread could be closed now.
deathcode
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March 25, 2013, 02:26:46 PM
 #91

I do not understand why ATC777 is getting roasted for this. Sure, the TA isn't perfect (weekend volume, new entrants could blow through resistance, etc.)....but he has made a great attempt at offering a differing view based on short-term TA. Market psychology is market psychology, regardless of the underlying (and especially given that speculation is moving this market), which is his overall message. The main difference in BTC is the difficulty determining where we are in the cycle. These new entrants are a massive ?.

As I said in a different post yesterday, I do not see a rocket today (but could certainly and happily be wrong). BTC is so ground-breaking that, and sorry for the double-negative, we can't not get overextended. Because this is so revolutionary, extreme over-exuberance is a foregone conclusion. It's difficult determining where this pricing dislocation will take place.....$75, $100, $200.....I'm certainly having difficulty with this, but my interests are not short-term so it really doesn't matter. One thing that's different, the nature of BTC creates a news cycle lag.....and BTC logistics for the average person make it hard to determine the nature of this next wave in terms of both adoption and speculation.

I also agree with many of you in that this next wave could be imminent and very large. The next two weeks are crucial. But I'm also wondering how non-tech savvy people could become true believers so rapidly, given that it's a leap for 99% of the population to put faith in crypto-currency within a week of discovering it. It's very different than placing a broker trade trade or purchasing an asset with a long history. Yes, there is probably a sizable segment of moderately tech savvy people who know about BTC but are only just now taking the plunge. More professional money could certainly move in, leading to more speculation. And the utility for gamblers is what initially made the rise in BTC so obvious for me.

Neither side of the argument can price these things in correctly, IMO. I do not have the conviction to call a short-term top, even though my gut tells me we will not move substantially higher over the next couple of days (which is irrelevant) as many have suggested. This could easily go either way in the short-term. I may not be factoring in this next wave, which may be the beginning of something much much larger. Regardless, I am bullish for the term prospects of BTC.

You probably answered your own question. His TA is the TA of a guy who just graduated from College with a finance degree or a day trader who just passed his S7 and wants to apply every technical term he just learned in a technology that has absolutely no parallel in the industry, not to mention the fact that is brand new and completely unpredictable.
With a market capital of less than 1 billion, a ton of news coming in related to bitcoin (just look at google trend) and many financial fires across the world... betting against bitcoin is a sure loss... at least in this kind of momentum and that's why he got soem heat about it. But that's fine, those guys usually ger burned and learn their lesson and the next time, they are much wiser. Everybody has been in that situation at some point.

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March 25, 2013, 03:23:29 PM
 #92

So much for that "double top"  Roll Eyes
deathcode
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March 25, 2013, 03:49:04 PM
 #93

So much for that "double top"  Roll Eyes

Yeah, can we bury this thread as false, erroneous. Or should we saved as an example of an epic fail?
All the lingo in the world can't save his position hehehe.

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March 25, 2013, 04:05:10 PM
 #94

The thing that gets me about TA of Bitcoin prices is, a typical day trader is lucky to slightly outperform the market. Most don't. Yet when faced with a long-term exponential bull run (that could even perhaps end up as the greatest one in all of history), you have to trade so excellently that you outperform even that exponential rise. Such an amazingly gifted day trader would have to be some kind of superhero and know the market like the back of his hand. This is impossible with Bitcoin. Way too many short-term X-factors.

Also note the "I'm not losing money because I'm cashed out" nonsense. A lost opportunity, a lost (or substantially diminished) position in a meteoric bull market is an incredibly huge loss compared to what was originally held (an undiminished position in that same asset). Sure you could double your position by a lucky trade, and sure, TA can conceivably help, but see the previous paragraph for why it's *still* not worth it.

"Buy and hold: Because you may be uncommonly intelligent and skilled at TA, but your comparative advantage will never be as big as Bitcoin's rise is exponential."
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March 25, 2013, 05:02:33 PM
 #95

You can't do a whole lot with a tulip and a most of those dotcom shares were from hyped up companies without any substance.

Unlike those examples, Bitcoin does have substance.  It's like somebody just discovered a strange new precious metal that can be teleported and made invisible, and now everybody wants to get their hands on it.

If this is a bubble, it will be temporary like the last one.

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March 25, 2013, 05:18:46 PM
 #96

Didn't you know? BTC is unobtanium.

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March 25, 2013, 05:34:14 PM
 #97

OP, How is the double top idea working out for you?  Roll Eyes

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March 25, 2013, 05:40:45 PM
 #98

You can't do a whole lot with a tulip and a most of those dotcom shares were from hyped up companies without any substance.

Unlike those examples, Bitcoin does have substance.  It's like somebody just discovered a strange new precious metal that can be teleported and made invisible, and now everybody wants to get their hands on it.

If this is a bubble, it will be temporary like the last one.

Not only can you teleport it around the globe, and make it invisible for crossing border checkpoints, but it is also incredibly easy to check it to validate it is real. There is no way to fill this with tungsten and get away with it.

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March 25, 2013, 06:56:00 PM
 #99

Difficult , so difficult to say how its going to pan out.

I'll say one thing though. With the dot com boom and bust, a lot of companies were selling themselves based on future predictions and fundamentals that did not exist. The infrastructure , for one , to support exponential usage (fast internet connections , mass customer usage of the net) did not exist - making their predictions flawed. Many of the business models were valid, its just their financial predictions based on the internet adoption at the time did not make sense.

IMO, with bitcoin its a bit different, just because the technology is already in existance (up to a point) and has gained a significant amount of usage. There are a number of indicators that show the technology is being used alot. (That's excluding Satoshi Dice and the large increase in price per coin, which has skewed the numbers a bit).

https://blockchain.info/charts

However there are a number of risk factors that are embedded in this that may or may not be accounted for with the current price. Certainly it is not at all certain whether bitcoin will ever gain mass adoption or usage. I think more attention should be given to the technical side. Scalability in particular is going to be an issue very soon.

I'm not really too big on technical analysis per se - I think that the charts do show some interesting information but it's just one part of the picture.
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March 25, 2013, 07:57:04 PM
 #100

OP, How is the double top idea working out for you?  Roll Eyes

What? I pointed out the pattern, and explained what they typically indicate -- no technical indicator is 101.01% accurate (e.g., seeing the exact path of the future).

You know what's funny? You are the guy who called me stupid for buying LTC at $0.04-$0.09, so let me ask you a question: how's it feel to be 1,300% wrong about that?  Roll Eyes


The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place.  Wink

I would...I've been watching this market for over a year now. I know when the price is going to go lower. Now isn't a time to buy.

 Grin Grin Grin

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