BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The thing that gets me about TA of Bitcoin prices is, a typical day trader is lucky to slightly outperform the market. Most don't. Yet when faced with a long-term exponential bull run (that could even perhaps end up as the greatest one in all of history), you have to trade so excellently that you outperform even that exponential rise. Such an amazingly gifted day trader would have to be some kind of superhero and know the market like the back of his hand. This is impossible with Bitcoin. Way too many short-term X-factors.

Also note the "I'm not losing money because I'm cashed out" nonsense. A lost opportunity, a lost (or substantially diminished) position in a meteoric bull market is an incredibly huge loss compared to what was originally held (an undiminished position in that same asset). Sure you could double your position by a lucky trade, and sure, TA can conceivably help, but see the previous paragraph for why it's *still* not worth it.

"Buy and hold: Because you may be uncommonly intelligent and skilled at TA, but your comparative advantage will never be as big as Bitcoin's rise is exponential."

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[Timo Y]

You can't do a whole lot with a tulip and a most of those dotcom shares were from hyped up companies without any substance.

Unlike those examples, Bitcoin does have substance.  It's like somebody just discovered a strange new precious metal that can be teleported and made invisible, and now everybody wants to get their hands on it.

If this is a bubble, it will be temporary like the last one.

[Vladimir]

Didn't you know? BTC is unobtanium.

[smoothie]

OP, How is the double top idea working out for you? 

[Peter Lambert]

You can't do a whole lot with a tulip and a most of those dotcom shares were from hyped up companies without any substance.

Unlike those examples, Bitcoin does have substance.  It's like somebody just discovered a strange new precious metal that can be teleported and made invisible, and now everybody wants to get their hands on it.

If this is a bubble, it will be temporary like the last one.

Not only can you teleport it around the globe, and make it invisible for crossing border checkpoints, but it is also incredibly easy to check it to validate it is real. There is no way to fill this with tungsten and get away with it.

[xavier]

Difficult , so difficult to say how its going to pan out.

I'll say one thing though. With the dot com boom and bust, a lot of companies were selling themselves based on future predictions and fundamentals that did not exist. The infrastructure , for one , to support exponential usage (fast internet connections , mass customer usage of the net) did not exist - making their predictions flawed. Many of the business models were valid, its just their financial predictions based on the internet adoption at the time did not make sense.

IMO, with bitcoin its a bit different, just because the technology is already in existance (up to a point) and has gained a significant amount of usage. There are a number of indicators that show the technology is being used alot. (That's excluding Satoshi Dice and the large increase in price per coin, which has skewed the numbers a bit).

https://blockchain.info/charts

However there are a number of risk factors that are embedded in this that may or may not be accounted for with the current price. Certainly it is not at all certain whether bitcoin will ever gain mass adoption or usage. I think more attention should be given to the technical side. Scalability in particular is going to be an issue very soon.

I'm not really too big on technical analysis per se - I think that the charts do show some interesting information but it's just one part of the picture.

[ATC777]

OP, How is the double top idea working out for you?  

What? I pointed out the pattern, and explained what they typically indicate -- no technical indicator is 101.01% accurate (e.g., seeing the exact path of the future).

You know what's funny? You are the guy who called me stupid for buying LTC at $0.04-$0.09, so let me ask you a question: how's it feel to be 1,300% wrong about that?  

The buy order book is drying up for LTC.

I wouldn't put so much emphasis on the books, as market books are vulnerable to quote-stuffing and manipulation of the perception of liquidity... focus on the legitimate trading that takes place.  

I would...I've been watching this market for over a year now. I know when the price is going to go lower. Now isn't a time to buy.

 

[smoothie]

OP, keep trying to call the top of BTC.

You will become Proudhon v0.5 

[ATC777]

Yeah.... right... 

[smoothie]

Yeah.... right...  

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 

[Ozymandias]

Yeah.... right...  

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 

But that would require one to put their money where their mouth is...

[smoothie]

Yeah.... right...  

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 

But that would require one to put their money where their mouth is...

Yes it would. Now the ball is in ATC777's court.

I've already called him out on an escrowed bet. We'll see who is laughing all the way to the bank after this.

ATC777, bring it! lol 

[thefiniteidea]

[ATC777]

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

[smoothie]

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

So you gonna back up your bullshit with BTC? I made you an escrowed bet.

Chicken? 

[BTC4Amazon]

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

So you gonna back up your bullshit with BTC? I made you an escrowed bet.

Chicken? 

I cant tell how serious you are with all the smiley faces.

[smoothie]

So Cyprus has a bailout deal now? Kicking the can down the road? I'm just tuning into CNBC... anyone know more about it?

So you gonna back up your bullshit with BTC? I made you an escrowed bet.

Chicken? 

I cant tell how serious you are with all the smiley faces.

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 

[ATC777]

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 

LOL you're so drove... your pride is hurt over the Litecoin thing, and now you're like a child trying to save face in front of his peers...

"My daddy IS a super millionaire! Promises! WANNA BET?! WANNA BET!? You're chicken!!!"

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!  

This is why the ignore button under your name is highlighted in orange, begging to be pressed... Go somewhere, dude...

BTW, as IF I'm going to trust any sort of bet with you and a guy named "Maged" who I don't even know, even if I cared about your wounded pride... lol

[BTC4Amazon]

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 

I also can't understand exactly what the bet is...It seems your betting him that you made money in the past. At least as far as I can tell

LOL is that all you got?

I can prove it too lol. Wanna do a escrowed bet of a substantial amount of BTC that I bought several 100 k of LTC and sold 3/4 of it in the last run up for BTC?

I have all the BTC-e logs to prove it.

Wanna go? Chicken? Let's use Maged to escrow the bet in BTC and the bet should be 250BTC.

 
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Please correct me I hope I'm wrong LOL

[smoothie]

I'm serious. I never back down from a challenge like this.

ATC777 thinks I was bullshitting, well let's see if he is willing to put his money where his mouth is. My escrow bet to him (through Maged) is still on the table for 250BTC.

If he doesn't accept, he is a pussy who just talks.

 

I'm a pussy. Let it be known to all.

Oh? ^  


LOL at least I can back up what I say with money and truth. Yes let it be known that ATC777 is a pussy who can't back up his claims.