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Author Topic: Cypriot banks open in Tuesday (not in 4 hours).. Who wants to make a prediction?  (Read 4583 times)
BTC Books
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March 26, 2013, 05:53:20 AM
 #41

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

Quote
While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

Not really true.  There are limits on withdrawals.  They 'locked down' at least 10% by reducing the balance on all accounts over the 100k euro limit.   You cant pull money out past zero. 

We'll see, I guess.  I tend toward a bit more cynicism than that.

Russian to banker:  "You want to make a big mistake or a little mistake?"

Banker:  "What's the little mistake?"

Russian:  "You conveniently forget to put any restrictions at all on your branches in London and Russia."

Banker:  "Hmmm.  And the big mistake?"

Russian:  "That's a little more... personal."

Dankedan: price seems low, time to sell I think...
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March 26, 2013, 07:45:08 AM
 #42

So that's why the Kremlin didn't jump in to bail them out, LOL.  They didn't have any assets left in the banks to protect.

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March 26, 2013, 08:13:14 AM
 #43

I bank run starting in Cyprus when those banks reopen and a spreading to other markets such as Italy, Spain could be in the cards

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March 27, 2013, 04:36:25 AM
 #44

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

The momentum continued, mostly unchanged after a bit of a dip over the weekend.  We finally broke $80 US today, which we were hovering around for a while, so that was no huge surprise.  There wasn't some ridiculously huge 50% spike in value when Cypriots all ran to spend their last Euro on bitcoins.

Moral of the story:  Individuals in the speculation forum might be crazy, but if you poll opinions the wisdom of the crowd seems to be pretty good here.

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March 27, 2013, 05:02:21 AM
 #45

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

what do you mean? are the banks now open?

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March 27, 2013, 05:06:57 AM
 #46

Everybody was pretty much right on this one.

what do you mean? are the banks now open?

LOL, no, I mean everybody was right when they said that the banks opening wasn't going to directly effect the bitcoin markets all that much.

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March 27, 2013, 07:09:21 AM
 #47

The Cypriot issue was just good press and got Bitcoins in many people's radar screen (in Europe and the U.S.).  Has anybody done any research to see if Cyprus has the infrastructure for it's citizens to buy Bitcoins.  They are a small country and probably don't have a middle money service like Dwolla or bitInstand and if they do, how much are their fees? They almost revolted over a 6.95% tax, after successfully defeating that, I think that they are not going to want to pay 5% in fees (bitIstand) just to keep their money safe. 

I think that returns are the main force behind last week and this week cash inflows. The one week return though Tuesday at midnight was 32.74% (closing 3/19/13- $59.14, 3/26 - $78.50 : based on closing prices as listed at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ ).  I have not seen a news story about any returns this week which really surprised me.  I think the media missed that the price fell 40% in less than 24 hours and was fully recovered by Sunday night.  This should of been major news because it debunks the fallacy that the recent rise of the price of Bitcoins was/is a bubble. No bubble can withstand being hit by a hammer and not break and a 40% drop in price is a very big hammer.     

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March 27, 2013, 07:16:10 AM
 #48

That was a 24% drop, no?
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March 27, 2013, 07:53:40 AM
 #49

That was a 24% drop, no?

Your right, went back and calculated it ($64.46 opening, $52 low = 25% drop). Thanks!  Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble. 
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March 27, 2013, 01:49:22 PM
 #50

Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble. 

agreed.

still waiting for this cypriot drama to play out and maintain the idea that its the "media" attention driving the price and not "actual" deposits. add to the fact that we're approaching $100 / BTC as well as 1 billion market cap and there's still major "mainstream" media bait to send this price skyrocketing.

i'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be very much downside risk here and there's currently a strong trading wall at $95.
I for one am still very bullish and putting my fiat where my mouth is Wink

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March 27, 2013, 09:48:43 PM
 #51

Still, a 25% drop in 1/2 a day is still a pretty decent hammer and would bust any bubble. 

agreed.

still waiting for this cypriot drama to play out and maintain the idea that its the "media" attention driving the price and not "actual" deposits. add to the fact that we're approaching $100 / BTC as well as 1 billion market cap and there's still major "mainstream" media bait to send this price skyrocketing.

i'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be very much downside risk here and there's currently a strong trading wall at $95.
I for one am still very bullish and putting my fiat where my mouth is Wink

tomorrow there will be a shit storm in Cyprus with the bankrun. will be interesting to watch...

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