Avalon ASIC pay back

[Rampion]

The protocol tries to generate 50,400 bitcoins for every difficulty change.  For the next difficulty the network will be about 60,000 GHashes/sec.  My avalon will be about 65 Ghashes/sec.  Thus I will get 65/60,000 * 50,400 bitcoins = 54.6 bitcoins.   Thus, my spreadsheet above is wrong.  If the network grows 20% durring the next difficulty I will only get 80% * 54.6 = 44 bbitcoins.  Still alot more than I said this morning.

44 bitcoins is a lot.  But I need to make 108 to recover what I spent on the thing.

I will try to figure this out again when I get home tonight.

Sam

I can guarantee that you will get a ROI in much much less than you expect.

No need to play with spreadsheets, just use: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

You will see that even with a x10 difficulty increase during the next 12 months (0.1 in the "profitability yearly decline" variable) and with less than 90% uptime (60GHs instead of 68GHs), your machine will ROI in BTC in aprox. 30 days

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[Rampion]

The protocol tries to generate 50,400 bitcoins for every difficulty change.  For the next difficulty the network will be about 60,000 GHashes/sec.  My avalon will be about 65 Ghashes/sec.  Thus I will get 65/60,000 * 50,400 bitcoins = 54.6 bitcoins.   Thus, my spreadsheet above is wrong.  If the network grows 20% durring the next difficulty I will only get 80% * 54.6 = 44 bbitcoins.  Still alot more than I said this morning.

44 bitcoins is a lot.  But I need to make 108 to recover what I spent on the thing.

I will try to figure this out again when I get home tonight.

Sam

I can guarantee that you will get a ROI in much much less than you expect.

No need to play with spreadsheets, just use: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

You will see that even with a x10 difficulty increase during the next 12 months (0.1 in the "profitability yearly decline" variable) and with less than 90% uptime (60GHs instead of 68GHs), your machine will ROI in BTC in aprox. 30 days

For batch 3 customer this looks different:

20 million starting difficulty
650 watt
cost of mining machine 8000$
0.1 profitabilty yearly decline
60ghash
66days to break even

12k first 12 month profit
if the price is stable at 100$ next 12month.

thats a massive bummer, considering that #2 customers will make a killing. if you get your batch 3 order early you might get faster break even, but not in terms of bitcoins, only in terms of money. in that case, not buying batch 3 would have been more intelligent.

I do not know what kind of amazing investments you do with your fiat, but a 66 days ROI is amazing. Even a 180 days ROI is acceptable as far as I'm concerned.

Then, I do not really care about USD profit estimations. First, because it is too much of a gamble. Secondly (and more important), because I bought a mining machine in BTC to generate BTC while supporting the network. As long as electricity gets paid, I really don't care about BTC/USD.

[jubalix]

you make a good point, by mining now at a low rate, they ensure market exists for thier sales
buuut it still does not stack up why they would bother selling

You don't understand the whole context of the Avalon project. It is very simple:

Avalon was started by 2 young engineers who had almost no money (*), and no or little experience designing ASICs. They had no choice but to sell pre-orders at a low price (due to the overall risk and uncertainty of the project) to acquire the initial capital required to develop a 110nm chip and the machines ($200-300k or so). Once they successfully manufactured the first batch of Avalons, they honored the pre-orders because they are ethical persons. If they had say at this point "f*ck you, customers, we will mine with your hardware and not ship it to you", this would have enraged the community, destroyed their reputation (so no batch #2 and no batch #3 sales revenues for them), and it would have possibly disrupted confidence in Bitcoin due to 2 guys controlling the majority of the hashing power, possibly destroying the exchange rate and their potential mining profits.

That's why. If you knew the 2 guys, you would see they care deeply about the future of Bitcoin and about ethics.

(*) ngzhang did not make that much profits from previous FPGA sales, and yifu did not bring capital AFAICS.

ok so the insured there with batch 1 market then sold into it with batch 2 and maybe 3....good makes sense now

[SebastianJu]

I have a batch 1 Avalon.  It will not ever return my initial investment.  I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months.  But I paid 108 BTC for it.

Yet it is worse than that.  I bought from all three manufacturers.  Because I was hoping to get whichever one delivered first.  I paid about 680 BTC for that.  One company went broke and paid me back a small fraction of what I spent in BTC (because of the exchange rate inflation).  Avalon just delivered one of my units and of course Butterfly labs has yet to deliver.

In dollars if I had saved my BTC they would be worth $70,000.  This would have been a much better move.

So those of you who didn't buy Avalons are doing much better than those of us who did.

Sorry to hear that. Allow me to do you a favor and cut your loss. I will buy your avalon for 108BTC plus shipping.
Deal?