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September 30, 2016, 10:36:15 PM |
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So here we are, the first day of October with the game's biggest prize up for grabs. It doesn't get any better then this, the AFL Grand Final between the Sydney Swans V Western Bulldogs.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R15, 2016, Western Bulldogs 13.5 (83) d Sydney Swans 11.13 (79) at the SCG
R5, 2015, Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) d Sydney Swans 10.13 (73) at the SCG
R22, 2014, Sydney Swans 20.10 (130) d Western Bulldogs 9.13 (67) at Etihad Stadium
R19, 2013, Sydney Swans 21.8 (134) d Western Bulldogs 15.9 (99) at Etihad Stadium
R21, 2012, Sydney Swans 26.11 (167) d Western Bulldogs 13.7 (85) at Etihad Stadium
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Sydney Swans
1. A fast start. The Swans tore Geelong apart in the preliminary final, kicking eight unanswered goals before the Cats got on the board. From there, the Swans were always in control.
2. Isaac Heeney to continue to be a ball magnet in the midfield. He's been sensational in the Swans' two wins in the finals with his attack at the contest and superb ball use.
3. Don't expect the Swans to have Grand Final nerves. There are several new faces in the side, but there are still a lot of experienced campaigners who will be desperate to avenge their embarrassing loss to Hawthorn in the 2014 decider.
Western Bulldogs
1. Who gets the big job on Lance Frankin? It's either going to fall to Joel Hamling – who hasn't played the Swans in his 22 career games – or veteran Dale Morris. Franklin kicked five goals on first-year player Marcus Adams (out for the year with a foot injury) in round 15.
2. The Bulldogs need to find a way to control the Swans' big four midfield guns – Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy and Kieran Jack. The quartet are the kings at winning contested ball and giving the Swans the upper hand at the stoppages.
3. Jason Johannisen and Matthew Boyd to impose themselves on the game with their rebound from the defensive 50. The Bulldogs get all their run and drive out of defence, allowing their midfielders to then move the ball quickly into the forward line for easy "over the back" goals to Clay Smith and Tory Dickson.
THE SIX POINTS:
1. Jason Johannisen's goal with seconds on the clock sealed a thrilling four-point win for the Bulldogs at the SCG in round 15, but the stats showed how close it was. The Bulldogs edged the Swans by the narrowest margin in the possession count 392-391 and the Inside 50s with 56-53. Matthew Boyd had 32 disposals for the winners, while Swans superstar Lance Franklin kicked five goals from nine scoring shots.
2. The two teams who find the ball the most will battle it out for ultimate glory. The Bulldogs are the only team in the competition to average more than 400 possessions per game. The Swans are their closest rivals, averaging 396.5 per game. Roles are reversed in contested possessions, with the Swans ranked first and the Bulldogs in fourth.
3. The Bulldogs have a 3-1 advantage over the Swans in their four previous finals games. Their most recent encounter was a five-point victory to the Dogs in a semi-final in 2010 at the MCG. The Bulldogs will be aiming to win four consecutive finals.
4. The Swans have been the premier defensive team this year, conceding just 68 points per game. The Bulldogs aren't far behind having restricted their opponents to 73 points per game.
5. When it comes to Grand Final experience, the Swans easily have the upper hand. This will be the club's 17th Grand Final for a return of five premierships and their third decider since 2012. Eighteen players on their list have played in a Grand Final, compared to just one (Matthew Suckling) for the Bulldogs. It's just the third Grand Final for the Bulldogs and their first since 1961 in their quest to break a 62-year premiership drought.
6. Sydney Swans dynamo Isaac Heeney was the highest-ranked player from the two Grand Final teams from last weekend's preliminary finals in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. Heeney racked up 20.3 points to continue his steep climb in the overall standings this year. Having started this season ranked 475th, Heeney has improved a massive 342 places to be 133rd in the competition.
The AFL Grand Final is tough to pick a winner this year but if the Western Bulldogs can continue to play the way they have been playing this finals series then I think they can get the job done later today but it could go either way. Sydney do however have Grand Final experience as this will be there 3rd Grand Final appearance in 5 years.
My prediction:
Western Bulldogs +11.5 @1.86 on DirectBet (2 units)
Value bet Western Bulldogs under 39.5 pts @2.92 (1 unit)
Norm Smith Medal (for best player on the ground in the Grand Final)
My Norm Smith Prediction:
If the Western Bulldogs win I think Marcus Bontempelli will win the medal @9.40 on DirectBet (0.5 unit)
If Sydney win I think Lance Franklin @8.60 or Josh Kennedy @10.00 (0.5 units on both)
I'm well in profit from betting on the AFL series so that is why I have put a few bets on and hopefully they come in. The Norm Smith is very hard to pick the right player to win but I think the 3 players I picked have a good chance at winning it, I could pick a few more as I believe there are a few other players that can win from both teams but I can't pick them all.
Good luck and may the best team win.
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