philipkdick
Member
 Offline
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
|
 |
June 23, 2013, 05:16:49 AM |
|
Can I just add anonymint ,
Dont be too negative on all of this , you let it get you down , you think highly , but .
I can assure you , government agencies have no innovation , they sub innovation out.
The only control is to the degree that the wealth that is held in what format is accepted or acceptable.
The evolution of currency can not be stopped , and the only answer is physical human war.
But when the numbers are run , it comes up a big no go. So who's going to support it ?
Nations need generals to organize wars , and when generals get fired and become yes men , that only makes the numbers look worse .
So what to do ?
The economic world many people knew ended in 08 , probably earlier . But the world did not .
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The block chain is the main innovation of Bitcoin. It is the
first distributed timestamping system.
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
sabahgamemaker
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 33
Merit: 0
|
|
June 23, 2013, 05:40:49 AM |
|
All I got from this is some noob want to create a new cryptocoin to pump and dump but he has no design skill and tried to attack bitcoin's design so that people would switch to his anonycoin by saying the design is superior  |
|
|
|
|
philipkdick
Member
Offline
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
|
|
June 23, 2013, 06:56:24 AM |
|
All I got from this is some noob want to create a new cryptocoin to pump and dump but he has no design skill and tried to attack bitcoin's design so that people would switch to his anonycoin by saying the design is superior Yeah but you are stupid , so how do we fix that ? The only way I see is for you to get more education , or something else has to shift in the environment . I.e we have to become more ignorant so as to make you appear more knowledgeable ? It's an age old problem. |
|
|
|
|
sabahgamemaker
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 33
Merit: 0
|
|
June 23, 2013, 07:34:50 AM |
|
All I got from this is some noob want to create a new cryptocoin to pump and dump but he has no design skill and tried to attack bitcoin's design so that people would switch to his anonycoin by saying the design is superior Yeah but you are stupid , so how do we fix that ? The only way I see is for you to get more education , or something else has to shift in the environment . I.e we have to become more ignorant so as to make you appear more knowledgeable ? It's an age old problem. Tut tut, another sheeple trying to sound smart by throwing sticks and stones, using convoluted words to mask his agenda, roflol |
|
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
June 23, 2013, 08:10:43 AM
Last edit: June 23, 2013, 08:27:09 AM by AnonyMint |
|
philipkdick, I agree, and I am not downbeat. I see the political reality for what it is and this presents an enormous opportunity as well. Thanks for defending me against that dolt, but it is good that there are many like him, so it means those of us who are knowledgeable can mine more coins in the coming better bitcoin alternative, before the rest figure it out. I will repeat that the most important demand for decentralized digital currency is going to come from westerners escaping confiscation starting right about now, since EU is about to codify bail-in confiscation for all nations. Gold won't help that much, because you won't be able to flee to any where that it can be spent without a confiscation apparatus. It won't be difficult to buy Bitcoins, but the government will know who owns which Bitcoins, due to the need to provide ID at the exchange and Europe will soon require this too as the USA and Canada already do. Later the government can "clawback" (as was done in the MF Global case to those who withdrew before the fiasco!) all those who moved money out of bank accounts and confiscate Bitcoins, including pressuring every person downchain to reveal who they spent to. Thus the key features that need to be added to a better alternative to Bitcoin are: * true anonymity of the blockchain (see link upthread on how to do it in decentralized way without needing to trust a laundering service which could be regulated) * ASIC-resistant mining People are going to need to be able to source hardware for mining easily in order to remain anonymous when obtaining coins without going through exchanges. ASICs are not easily sourceable, i.e. I can't walk in and pay cash some where nearby, nor buy used hardware with cash from my local area. The list of the current alternatives to Bitcoin, none of which do both of the above: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134179.0https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/List_of_alternative_cryptocurrenciesI would also like to add the features: * eliminate the 10 minute transaction delay with option escrow deposit guarantee * mandatory tx fees to incentivize including transactions in blocks * perpetual debasement (and thus mining) similar to gold |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
June 24, 2013, 02:28:05 PM
Last edit: June 24, 2013, 03:58:09 PM by AnonyMint |
|
http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-23978Andao, And of course you’re talking about a banking system which is entirely government run, and where property cannot be purchased, only leased. I’m not sure how you can get more socialist than that. Ditto the western banking system in reality, and especially once all the derivatives and liabilities in the system are factored in and the system has reset to (as I postulated in reply to illumined downthread). Fractional reserve banking systems are inherently socialist over time until the financial system resets with write-downs. Leasing property is not necessarily socialist. Private property rights in the west are somewhat of an illusion due to the false high valuations by pulling demand forward 30 years with debt, high insurance payments, rising property taxes as states are bankrupt. The western real estate has not bottomed. I expect the gold-to-house ratio to increase another order-of-magnitude! What is the limit on taking USD out of the US vs RMB out of China? Obviously there is a huge difference when you are talking capital controls. You cherry picked foreign exchange. Yet if we compare controls on exporters, I bet the USA is much more socialist with labor laws, export restrictions, and higher taxes. As far as I know, there’s no such thing as a private hospital in China (unless you’re looking at plastic surgery/dental). I for one have never been to a private practice, nor have I ever seen one. China may be trying to keep the national cost on health care low, so it has a more competitive economy for exporting. As it shifts to a consumer economy, the priority will shift to the advantage that allowing more spending on health care, enables greater security and consumer spending of savings. What I am saying is that when global exports crater circa 2016, China will undergo a radical and rapid transformation. The pent up demand and capacity for this change is ready. Whereas, the west doesn't have any capacity to adapt after 2016. You overemphasize lack of interest of the Chinese to research some obscure facts about history. The main priority of Chinese today is to earn money, so they can buy a house, car, and get married. On that front, they know they are not [entirely] free and are eager to gain more capitalism.
|
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
June 24, 2013, 03:45:59 PM |
|
As far as I know, economists widely have failed to emphasize the critical role derivatives are playing in keeping the west locked into ZIRP and bail-ins versus write-down of the lenders. Thus instead of a quick collapse and reset with ensuing quick recovery, as what occurred in Iceland or the USA after 1919, these derivatives have conflated the sovereign bonds with the lenders to real-estate, thus insuring any write-down would be apocalyptically spread on to retirement plans. The derivatives along with nearly retired boomer demographic bulge, are the main factors of social capital looking forward for the west.
Btw, bail-ins are socialist because the savers pay for the mistakes of the lenders and borrowers (and derivative gamblers), but this is inherent in fractional reserve banking.
Michael raised a very important concept by introducing social capital. Now let's get real about it. I wish I could read some prominent economists face the reality that the West can't escape with write-downs, and thus there won't be any break from Euro either (which I published a prediction on nearly 2 years ago). This will be a 26 year catastrophe. And it happens every 78 years in recorded history, at least since we emerged from the Roman Dark Age. Because demographics drives economics. Twenty-six years is how long it takes a human to become mature and ready to take over responsibility and become a major factor in the work force and start a family.
The west has to wait 26 years from 2007, when the boomers were 52, for them to die off at age 78. And for the generation born in 2007 to mature and be ready to compete with Asia in the robotic and automation revolution which will becoming a significant sector of the global economy by then (2033).
|
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
 |
June 25, 2013, 10:57:03 AM
Last edit: June 27, 2013, 11:53:06 AM by AnonyMint |
|
I mentioned a few posts upthread, that I think one of the most important features for a better bitcoin alternative is the ability to realistically mine from general purpose computers. Two main reasons: In addition to such a better alternative bitcoin perhaps coming on the horizon (perhaps created by myself), in the near-term until at least roughly 2015, US citizens may be able to keep under $10,000 in cash off the radar in a foreign account with a country that as of yet still has some bank secrecy. A GAO report explains why in 2015 the pressure from the US government will increase to force foreign banks (even those with bank secrecy laws) to report your account(s), although perhaps this has been delayed to 2017. Already for example, the US can obtain information on a specific account in most countries with bank secrecy, if they have a specific name or account number and a justified suspicion of tax avoidance. I just learned today that the total amount of foreign accounts must not reach nor exceed $10,000 on any given statement period as follows. http://www.nestmann.com/appeals-court-weakens-willfulness-defense-in-failure-to-file-foreign-account-reporting-forms/Should you have any concerns if you have an account under $10,000 Bob, if the aggregate total of all offshore accounts never exceeds $10,000 in a given year, you don’t need to report the existence of the account(s) to the IRS or Treasury, although you still need to report and pay tax on any income generated. In addition to filing this form [Treasury form 90-22.1: Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts] with the Treasury Department, you may need to declare the foreign accounts on your US tax return. The IRS instructions for Schedule B, line 7 say: Check the "Yes" box on line 7a if either 1 or 2 next applies.
1. You own more than 50% of the stock in any corporation that owns one or more foreign bank accounts.
2. At any time during the year you had an interest in or signature or other authority over a financial account in a foreign country (such as a bank account, securities account, or other financial account). The instructions go on to note an exception in the case of small accounts: Exceptions. Check the "No" box if any of the following applies to you. The combined value of the accounts was $10,000 or less during the whole year. (Remember: This page gives you pointers to information that may help you understand US Treasury regulations and tax law. We do not give you legal or tax advice. It is up to you to understand the law and file the correct forms. If you need advice you must see a professional.) The penalties for not filing the above are extreme, including possibly up to a $500,000 fine and 5 years in jail. As for Europeans, France and the G8 are also getting organized to come after your wealth hiding overseas: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/26/us-iron-curtain-is-coming-in-new-immigration-bill-for-all-americans/http://www.nestmann.com/homelanders-to-u-s-expatriates-dont-come-back-ever/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/18/g8-going-to-hunt-down-all-capital/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/18/icij-has-done-far-more-damage-to-the-world-economy-that-anyone-realized/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/15/united-stasi-of-america/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/15/precious-metals-remain-under-attack-by-governments/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/14/the-collapse-in-liquidity-rising-volatility/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/13/german-high-court-introducing-more-euro-chaos/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/12/city-dwellers-at-greatest-risk/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/12/snowdens-rude-awakening-usa-does-control-most-of-the-world/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/12/greesce-shuts-down-tv-new/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/capitalism-or-marxism-that-is-the-question/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/mailing-cash-is-prohibited-in-usa-france-bars-even-gold/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/congress-wants-snowdens-head-not-the-nsa/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/the-future-of-the-world-economy-les-miserables/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/paranoid-or-conservative/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/10/capitol-hill/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/10/france-declares-victory-over-entire-eurozone-crisis/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/09/nsa-surveillance/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/08/why-the-survelience-is-very-dangerous/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/08/political-trivia-test-can-you-pass-it/ (Hillary Clinton's plans for confiscation) http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/07/unemployment-benefits-cut-part-of-deflation/ (the official rate will go to 25-30%, real rate much higher perhaps) http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/imf-admits-it-made-a-mistake-with-greece/ (Only Julius Caesar understood how to fix a debt crisis) http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/nsa-tapping-into-internet-directly/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/is-paranoid-becoming-normal/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/05/this-no-time-to-quit-a-job-us-youth-unemployment-hits-16-2/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/04/search-warrants-not-necessary-to-take-you-dna/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/04/the-growing-shadow-economy-politicians-just-dont-get-it/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/04/1984-is-here-2014/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/03/seniors-are-the-greediest-generation/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/02/rising-tide-of-civil-unrest/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/02/the-real-conspiracy/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/01/11999/ (Primary Dealers – the Truth About Their Iron Grip) http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/31/freedom-to-travel-in-europe-shutting-down/http://www.nestmann.com/cell-tracking/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/15/europe-plans-the-confiscation-of-depositor-assets/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/germany-wants-global-taxation-cooperation/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/the-pension-crisis-interest-rate-nightmare/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/inflation-v-deflation/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/18/europe-considering-mandatory-15-of-wages-to-be-taken-for-pensions/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/17/the-next-seizure-coming-u-s-consumer-financial-protection-bureau/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/17/will-pension-funds-be-the-target-after-2016-to-seize-for-our-protection/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/16/europe-to-begin-capital-controls-soon/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/13/france-is-pushing-for-tax-evasion-to-be-top-eu-priority-hitler-returns/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/12/government-pensions-will-cost-2500-per-household-climbing/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/29/cyprus-confiscation-of-assets-is-global-plan/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/28/electronic-money/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/27/are-we-head-to-a-mad-max-scenario/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/25/sovereign-debt-crisis-conference-2/http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/26/visit-italy-they-seize-your-jewelry/ ("Diego Maradona, the Argentine soccer star...") http://www.nestmann.com/yes-you-are-a-criminalyou-just-dont-know-it-yet-2/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate (USA an order-of-magnitude higher) http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934&cpage=1#comment-400351 (suburbs as peaceful as Switzerland, Americans are culturally less law abiding & some violent big cities) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conviction_rate (with 93% conviction rate from US Dept or Justice, 99% in NY Fed courts according to Armstrong) http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4927&cpage=1#comment-399831 (Why should it happen to Denmark?) http://www.nestmann.com/passport-denials-long-a-feature-of-u-s-foreign-policy/http://www.nestmann.com/hungary-now-imposes-tax-on-non-resident-citizens/So what should one do after 2015 (or 2017 perhaps) and with more than $10,000 in savings? A better bitcoin? I warned about this situation 3 years ago and that gold will not be a solution (note I no longer think a stampede into gold will cause hyper-inflation, because the world's wealth will never make it into gold, rather we are headed for deflation with confiscations yet gold will go very high due to being a place where wealthy attempt to store wealth from confiscation). Disclaimer: I am not giving tax nor financial advice in any my posts. I am merely relaying some thoughts I have had, thus readers should consult their own professional advisers and attorneys. |
|
|
|
|
GCInc.
|
|
June 25, 2013, 12:27:39 PM |
|
enabling humanity to leverage its preexisting idle computing power The disk space proof of work solution is by far the best suggestion I have seen to attain this [not up to date of its feasibility?] but does it not still prompt big money to invest in large modern Petabyte level disks to grab the best positions? Or is it simply not dependent on the amount of disk space, just if you have any online capable computer you're qualified for mining... which would effectively strip the rich of their power while the capacity to amass ancient hardware is not as directly relative to wealth. I would love to see that kind of great equalizer and the effect of hoarding what is now obsolete hardware in the millions as would be expected in such circumstances. |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
June 25, 2013, 01:31:10 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2013, 03:09:55 PM by AnonyMint |
|
enabling humanity to leverage its preexisting idle computing power The disk space proof of work solution is by far the best suggestion I have seen to attain this [not up to date of its feasibility?] but does it not still prompt big money to invest in large modern Petabyte level disks to grab the best positions? Thank you. Unfortunately, upthread I concluded that disk space proof (as a subset of proof-of-consensus) can't be secure, because the input entropy is deterministic. The tradeoff is that Proof-of-Work is provably secure up to 51% control, whereas Proof-of-Consensus (i.e. share or disk space) is insecure at much less than 51%. The only way to fix that insecurity is to centralize the system by employing persistent reputation (and Proof-of-stake falls under this category of a non-solution). Litecoin's Scrypt is sufficient because it "make the random lookup the largest time component of the calculation". However, Litecoin stops the mining after a certain date in the future, which is a problem as discussed upthread. Or is it simply not dependent on the amount of disk space, just if you have any online capable computer you're qualified for mining... which would effectively strip the rich of their power while the capacity to amass ancient hardware is not as directly relative to wealth. I would love to see that kind of great equalizer and the effect of hoarding what is now obsolete hardware in the millions as would be expected in such circumstances.
The deep pocketed attacker could mass produce Raspberry Pi at $25 each. ======== Decentralized Solution to the 51% AttackI have been thinking about what (even a minority of the users) could do in even that the powers that be obtain 51% control over the Proof-of-Work blockchain. We could post a transaction to a new blockchain and challenge the main blockchain to accept it. If after sometime the main blockchain did not, then it would be clear that minority blockchain was the new blockchain for that transaction. If the attacker takes control of this new minority blockchain, then repeat the procedure again. In this way, the attacker can never block transactions. I think I have it all figured out now? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
 |
August 01, 2013, 02:27:53 PM
Last edit: August 18, 2013, 01:05:37 AM by AnonyMint |
|
I am convinced these authors are technically myopic. This Bitcoin2 proposal seems to be trying to address some of my concerns as enumerated upthread and in the OP of this thread, yet all their suggestions are WRONG. Bitcoin 2: Freedom of Transaction- Bitcoin Payment Messages & Transaction Metadata: if this is added to Bitcoin as planned, it may open a huge market for people to flee to an altcoin that doesn't have the capability to store receipts from merchants in the blockchain. However probably not because realize if the customer and merchant are anonymous, they can't be pressured by the state and if they aren't anonymous, they can be pressured regardless of these new protocols. Thus the protocols aren't the real threat, rather the lack of good anonymity in Bitcoin is.
- Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Scoring: the issue here again is the lack of true anonymity in Bitcoin.
- Repudiable Transactions: Nonsense on the threat of Transaction Metadata allowing repudiation. Repudiation can't happen in any new ways that it can't already (i.e. sending the coin to a third-party) without a change to the way blockchain is verified by the protocol, and currently this means only the private key of the sender can create a transaction and there is no means for the private key to take it back. If repudiation is added to blockchain verification, then there would be a genuine concern that merchants will require identity of the customer to score based on risk of chargeback. However, without repudiation, the spenders may need to know the identity of the merchant to make judgments based on risk of non-delivery. Yet these potentials are asymmetrical in effect, thus adding repudiation may increase net bad effects. However, repudiation is added by third parties any way, e.g. trusted exchanges or decentralized 3-way group signatures with an appointed mediator.
If Chaum's group signature repudiation (becoming irrepudiable after N blocks) were ever implemented in the blockchain, it would be necessary to not allow the recipient's balance to fall (not allowed to spend) below the outstanding potential repudiations. - VoucherSafe: This doesn't provide instant confirmations where the spender wants to put an extra unspendable (since N blocks in the past to M blocks in the future) bounty awarded in case the spender issues a double-spend. And this can only be done in the blockchain verification protocol (since the spend has to be disallowed for a period and the award of the bounty has to be protocol).
- Sliding blockchain (with fixed block size) : the blockchain size can't remain fixed and scale to Visa-scale.
- Distribution of dead coins: Why the complexity of distributing them? Just destroy them. Oh yeah, Bitcoin ceases creating new coins after 2033 thus destroyed coins don't get replaced, which is another weakness because mining is the only way to get true anonymity.
- Forced mixing of coins with Zerocoin: Even with true anonymity, Zerocoin on first glance appeared to be useful because some people may give up anonymity on some purchases and so don't want to link back to their other anonymous coins. But the whole Zerocoin thing against the government falls apart because if your identity is known on either side, the authorities can compel you to reveal the links forward or backward. The only anonymity is true anonymity! Zerocoin is useless against the government. Zerocoin might have other utility against traffic analysis by the private sector which doesn't have this power to compel, and for this applicability there is no problem if the people who use Zerocoin are not mixed with people who don't need to use it.
- Miner ostracism: centralization and killing true anonymity for what gain? Worse yet, this devolves into chaos, because there is no consensus. If there is really consensus then fork the chain each time the ostracized miner wins a Proof-of-Work, otherwise this is simply chaos with different spenders banning themselves from different miners that gains nothing.
- Final transfer of coins from Bitcoin to Bitcoin2: Uh, what about the constantly changing relative market price Beavis?
 Oh so you mean there will be a period to transfer them at a some fixed ratio before the market (blockchain processing) begins? Uh, who determines the fair ratio Butthead? - Embrace a good code base: btcd: might be their one good idea for forks.
 - Limit the number of transactions: Why? Can't grow to Visa-scale.
- Support for nodes and complete network on Tor: Yeah but something better tuned than Tor.
- Nonce-Signatures & Block-Signatures: I can't see how this forces decentralization. Any proxy can use its own key if it has agreement with the peer doing the number crunching.
Developers should discuss this post in a special thread created for it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266107.msg2847244#msg2847244 |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
August 01, 2013, 04:55:29 PM |
|
Downloaded software which wishes to be secure should employ the Socialist Millionaire algorithm to insure the checksum of the download was not transmitted by a man-in-the-middle who changed the download. Communications between individuals would be more secure with OTR than PGP. |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
 |
August 03, 2013, 07:02:22 AM |
|
Click the link to read it in context of a discussion. THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT EMAIL YOU READ. http://blog.jim.com/culture/radish-explains-what-racism-means.html/comment-page-1#comment-343342You have provided no counter example. No empire has ever collapsed with hyperinflation. As you admit, Rome survived the inflationary crisis and only collapsed with deflation when the people abandoned the currency and the city too. Hyperinflation is where a country can't sell its bonds and pays its bills by printing money. The key difference is that in hyperinflation you can get more fiat for your gold. In deflation, you get less fiat, or you don't want the fiat because no one will accept it anymore at any valuation. Deflation is the state vs. the people madmax scenario, hyperinflation is running on a treadmill where people lose confidence but the government is not attacking the people, rather just printing money to fund its operations in an exponential spiral. You will pray for hyperinflation, when you see what is coming to us. You don't understand that Rome had a two-tier money system, and the people abandoned their land and the currency, because of the onerous taxes that had to be paid in the first tier currency that wasn't debased!! The G20 is going to hunt everyone down and tax them to death. You can't argue with Martin Armstrong, he has spent $millions on researching the history of world. He spent $10 million just to create a chart of the silver price during the Roman era, by collecting every silver coin from the era. He had researchers compile information from the media archives in London and else where. Read How Empires Die. Note the empire rotates around the world from Europe to America to Asia. USA is peaking and Asia is next up. Britian handed it to USA, but we had our 1929 at the handoff, and China will have its 1929 in 2016. China wasn't an empire when they hyperinflated, they were an isolated Yuan Dynasty in middle ages or the socialist failure of the Republic of China in the 1940s. |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
August 04, 2013, 02:37:51 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2013, 09:14:58 AM by AnonyMint |
|
More pointedly why we sink into deflation, not hyperinflation. AGAIN THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU NEED TO KNOW NOW. SEE ARMSTRONG's 100s OF CORRECT PREDICTIONS NEAR BOTTOM OF THIS EMAIL. Click this first link below to read the following in context of larger discussion about hyperinflation vs. deflation as how fiat dies when empires die. http://blog.jim.com/culture/radish-explains-what-racism-means.html/comment-page-1#comment-344394My prior explanation didn't pointedly clarify what is recognizably distinct (different) between hyperinflation and the deflation where people discard the fiat (for anything they can until no one will accept it). In both cases, there is deflation relative to the value of hard assets (e.g. gold and land that wasn't fiat financed overvalued, e.g. undeveloped rural land that banks won't provide loans for). The pointed distinction is that in the hyperinflationary case the government prints 10,000, 100,000, 1 million notes (or physically debased the physical coin to the same effect). Thus you see the value of gold go to 10,000, 100,000, etc. You will not see $100,000 dollar notes during this crisis. The debasement of storing QE generated reserves at the Fed by the banks, caused massive dollar loans (leveraged on those reserves) in the developing world (not in the USA). Now those (fractional reserve created) dollars are returning home causing this bounce in the USA that will end 2015.75 because of the feedback loop effect I described upthread. That feedback loop is causing rest of world to collapse in deflation. At the death of the empire, the powers that be maintain control by squeezing the middle class between inflation and deflation simultaneously. The currency is debased (but not exponential spiral unless they create a two-tier currency where the monetary unit for paying taxes isn't debased, note even 500 A.D. Roman coin was only debased 1/50, not 1/100,000) while increasing taxes. The middle class eventually disappears and flees the cities where the powers are extracting unlivable taxes, to places where they can produce without interference of the pathological end-game of statism. The key difference is there is no state to run to with the collapse of the global empire, you can only run away to the mountains (the Madmax outcome depending on how the handoff from one empire to the next transpires, hopefully we won't get a Dark Ages this time, probably not because Asia is so rich in billions of educated youth with good family values that the western empire hasn't destroyed yet). Whereas, with hyperinflation, you can run to another state and its currency and continue functioning normally. The global empire collapses in deflation and then the center of the empire transfers to where there isn't this huge statism taxing the economy, i.e. as Heritage Foundation data shows Asia (including China) has much lower government share of GDP than the West (with the exception of Switzerland). I explained why China and Asia are the future. Anarcho-capitalism is the technological mountains this time around.  James A. Donald, you were there at the beginning with Satoshi. Now stay with me as I fix Bitcoin. But you won’t be able to prove it is me doing the work ===================================== Another line of summary at the following link: http://relativisticobserver.blogspot.com/2013/07/observing-microsoft-part-3.html?showComment=1375616451672#c6434436042918130550First a macro-economic point w.r.t the relative trajectories of Microsoft, Apple, and Google. Some details were in the prior blog. The western empire is dying ( empires move periodically from Europe to America to Asia to Europe...), but empires never collapse with hyperinflation, rather always deflation and onerous taxation (police states devolution into abandonment of the cities). The future (after 2016 when the USA begins its big economic collapse) after China has its 1929 handoff depression in 2016, is consumer economic volume and growth will be focused in the developing world predominantly Asia. The stock valuation of these companies should be based on their market share in Asia. The collapse starting in 2016 (maybe ending 2020 for Asia, 2033 for West) will do that. I hope Tim Cook (Ballmer is hopeless) is aware. You may not agree, yet I have studied the evidence that this repeats every 78 and 224 years. The Google people may not understand this, but they understand that global market share is the future, so they arrive at the same optimum long-term strategy. ===================================== Here is a general rebuttal for anyone who thinks the above is not coming from a real economist who has successfully predicted every major turn in the global economy since the 1970s (except his own imprisonment): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226033.msg2865057#msg2865057birdbrain, it will be proven by 2016 that everything about the coming deflation is correct. Now stay on ignore with your other dimwitted commentators who have nothing intelligent to say. All of what I wrote is just a re-summary of Martin Armstrong's Pi model of international capital flows. It has enabled him to make the following correct predictions years in advance of the predictions coming true. He spent $100 million developing the research and having his computer find all the correlations. That is when he discovered that human nature and thus international capital flows also move in waves, just like everything else in the The Universe (my blog) does. That doesn't mean we can predict what any individual human will do, only that we can predict the macro waves. Martin Armstrong helped me to make a public prediction that gold would decline from $1550 to under $1200. I was also the person who exactly predicted the 2011 price moves of silver back in Oct 2010. So shut your birdmouth. It is also allowing me to predict that the DJIA will go to 39,000 before 2015.75 and that gold will probably go up to 1424 - 1550, then crash back down to 1050 or below. Gold will not make new highs under after 2015.75. Now you just wait and see if I am correct again or not. I made one mistake betting too early on China's collapse last year, because I wasn't reading Armstrong (who makes it very clear China won't collapse until 2016). ================================= Note I was starting to lean towards Armstrong's cycles when I INDEPENDENTLY discovered his 78 year cycle in Feb. 2013. The key was looking at long-term charts for strange patterns that stand out like a bloody nose. This caused me to integrate his 3 x 26 = 78 year model into my understanding of technological unemployment (follow the sub-links at the above linked pages to get to a table of historical dates evidence of the 78 year cycles). |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
August 04, 2013, 05:09:15 PM |
|
So again I ask you, do you have any numbers or any evidence to show that transaction fees alone cannot support the Bitcoin network in the future?
Sure it can if you accept the mining won't be available as the only way to get true anonymity, and that the large corporations will take over mining (because they can offer transaction fees of zero or even less than zero because they make it back with a cartel and higher prices). I guess you guys never heard of Visa and MasterCard. |
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
 |
August 04, 2013, 07:28:47 PM |
|
> Be careful. Going to 1/50th the value is still hyperinflation, even if he
> does not like to apply that word. A 98% loss of value of the currency is
> still loss, still hyperinflation, still devaluation, still deadly if you
> hold that. Armstrong is master of confusion and
> illusion.
1/50th of the value, but you still had to pay your taxes in Rome in 99% gold! A two-tier money system. We have the same thing now.
Your gold investments will go up from $1000 to $3000 - $5000, but they will tax you at 90%. Go look at the tax rates after 1929.
You are missing the point. In empire collapse, you are squeezed between deflation and inflation.
Now the things you must use go up in price, but the things you invest in (houses) go down in price (and even if you invest in gold, they will make sure you lose just as in Rome).
You can't beat the empire. There is no place to run to, except the mountains.
This time the mountains is Bitcoin. But Bitcoin has flaws. I am working on it.
Armstrong is not at all confusing for me.
He has never said that gold won't go up. What he said was that gold would go down first from 2011 to 2013/4/5 (three possibilities for the bottom). Then gold will NOT make a new all-time high until after 2015.75.
And gold will NOT go to $50,000! It will go somewhere in the $3000 - $8000 range, probably $5000.
He has not said that gold isn't money. He has said that a strict gold standard is never sustainable, and he explained why. Society must oscillate between gold and fiat money, because of at least two reasons:
1. Debt isn't possible on a strict gold standard (no fractional reserves)
2. Strict gold standard means savings is 100% more important than production and knowledge formation, because savers (who do nothing but sit on their gold) always get wealthier. You can't pay investors more, because the supply of gold doesn't increase as fast as the increased production value.
Really this is so elemental. Armstrong is just a lot smarter than most people.
|
|
|
|
cellos
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 9
Merit: 0
|
|
August 04, 2013, 07:43:55 PM |
|
Wow lots of speculation, just got to make sure corps dont own all the hashing/coin power.
|
|
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
August 04, 2013, 08:09:31 PM |
|
Wow lots of speculation, just got to make sure corps dont own all the hashing/coin power.
There is no speculation. I am telling you how it always happens. Every time. What I wrote in the other thread applies: Do you think I care about your call for Bitcoin to go to $200, when I am writing about how you are going to lose it all because you are not anonymous and there will be a wealth tax. I am writing about how empires die. You are writing about speculation.
Get off my lawn child.
|
|
|
|
|
AnonyMint (OP)
|
|
August 06, 2013, 10:25:36 AM |
|
Click this first link below to read the following text in the context of a longer discussion between myself and James A. Donald (the first person who interacted with Satoshi at the cryptography forum where Satoshi announced Bitcoin). http://blog.jim.com/culture/radish-explains-what-racism-means.html/comment-page-1#comment-345588Apologies for this long comment, but I wanted to make it very clear that when empires fall, it is very dangerous for the citizens of the empire. Rome during and after Diocletian attempted to tax above the Laffer limit. ... Economy collapsed and population declined. It was extremely unpleasant, and the collapse of empire did not make things better. Indeed, when empires collapse, there isn't hyperinflation, rather the empire state exerts its power until it has destroyed itself (and the citizens) from within. Armstrong wrote more about that today quoted as follows. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/05/nsa-collects-word-for-word-according-to-pbs/...
This is all about the financial crisis and this is how ALL governments have collapsed – sheer economic implosion as they turn against their own people. As I have said before. You will pray for the hyperinflation where government simply prints and does not try to confiscate assets. That has just never been the case in developed nations where assets exist. Hyperinflation is associated with governments that are typically new and revolutionary where hard assets are hoarded and not present in banks and there is not debt market for nobody will lend to them. We are not at that stage at this time. We first have to see confidence collapse and the bond market implode with nobody buying. But where does ca[ital then go since there is no alternative? The future is just not going to be such a easy way out. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/05/how-empires-collapse-a-orderly-path-to-conclusion/A number of people have asked what does the future really hold with the civil unrest/war cycle turning up next year. Government NEVER collapse because of revolution. Let’s get this one very straight. Any government as long as it is strong will crush into dust any resistance. The key to the collapse of empires is the die from inside normally by their own hand. Communism fell of its own accord. We did not do a damn thing. Communism was economically unsustainable. As that worked its way through the veins of power, their economies simply imploded.
This is why I am warning that socialism is collapsing. Government is hunting down every penny it can find. It will destroy the economy in the process and that is the ultimate irony. Western government are simply unsustainable. We cannot constantly confiscate assets and pour them into interest and pension to sustain government. The economy grows weaker and the revenues decline as they become more and more aggressive.
The Barbarians were at the gates of Rome for more than a century. They could not make any headway until the 3rd century when the financial of Rome were imploding. Undermine the economy, you weaken the government, and then it falls. The rise of people in arms is NEVER the actual event the changes the cycle. It is the final act that completes the cycle. The cycle is already declining and then when the people cannot take it any more, they will rise up. They get the credit, but in fact, the government is declining just as we saw in China. When the man stood before the tanks, it did not take long for the government to really fail.
Revolution is the final act, never the first. Here is a famous Maryland Propaganda Note intended to justify war because of the injustice of the King. The king of England played a game with the American colonies. Anything they bought from England had to be paid in silver or gold. However, whatever they sold to England was paid in copper. Hence, he was extorting the American Colonies and bleeding them dry. First comes the economic decline – then comes the Revolution. So what must take place FIRST is the economic collapse and that will then lead to discontent. Why do you think they are passing all these [dracronian] laws one step at a time that follows a planned path only an idiot cannot see because they do not wish to. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/05/obama-trying-to-cover-up-another-investigative-program/Bloomberg News has reported that Federal courts now allow the IRS to issue summonses to US banks at the request of the Norwegian government, to hunt down their citizens with assets in the USA. All of these government are hunting money – not terrorists. This is the collapse of fiscal mismanagement. Forget the hyperinflation. These people will not go quietly into the night or light. They are kicking and screaming and will die like an insane madman in a violent oppression of the people. You wrote more about that here: Indeed, probably due to plagues of various kinds Pinker attributes the entire population decline to the fall of Rome, even though it set in before the fall or Rome. In fact, what happened was that Rome was in financial trouble because, like much of Europe, it was taxing well above the Laffer limit. Well, thought Diocletian, if overtaxed people will not work, make them work. So he in large part instituted a command economy, which probably caused rises in the death rates for the usual reasons that we observe command economies killing people today and during the twentieth century. Basically, in a command economy, you have to murder people to get stuff done. Before I was banned, I also rebutted Winter's theories on the decline of Rome here: @Winter:
You attempt to remove blame from the effects of top-down governance. Agriculture in Western Europe declined for numerous reasons all of which can be attributed to mismanagement due to top-down control and the funding of such misallocation. Socialized debt is a future tax. The agricultural sector was suffering under increasing taxes after the hyperinflation of the 3rd century had adversely impacted funding for the military while there were increasing military threats to the east. Pottery records indicate production increased through the 4th, as the rural sector was squeezed for every drop by Rome. As with all debt funding, growth was too rapid, and irrigation was polluted by clearing for too many new settlements. The resultant malnutrition, declining production, localized warlords, and thus disease coincided with the collapse of Western Europe due to the bankruptcy of its top-down militarized, servitude model.
We will likely find the same top-down cause applies to of all Dark Ages– even the famines in Africa. And here: The population of Rome plummeted -97% from 1.4 million in 450AD to 40,000 over the next 1000+ years.[1]
Dark Ages where the population abandons cities occurred in Greece from 1600 – 1200BC (with coinage only re-appearing in 7th century BC), after the collapse of Rome that lasted 600 years, and in Japan for 600 years during which no coinage was created.[2]
[1] Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference, Armstrong
[2] Are we Headed into a Mad Max Scenario?, Armstrong |
|
|
|
|
