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Author Topic: Flat technicals for $BTC through the weekend...  (Read 224 times)
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September 02, 2016, 04:54:44 PM

Bitcoin Price Update for September 2, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As we have been forecasting all week, bitcoin has indeed remained trapped in the 565 - 585 $ consolidation zone (and within that primarily in the 570 - 580 $ area).  Yesterday we saw a small test of the lower end of that range, and today we are making moves back into the mid to high 570's $.  While we cannot rule out a spike in volatility over the next few days, we think most of the action will materialize later in the long weekend (Sunday going into Monday).  Despite the fact that the technicals still are not all that clear on directionality seeing as though this flat market has transitioned into indecision, we still see no reason to change our generally bullish bias going into Autumn.

Speaking of flat technicals, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart once again for an idea of where we may be heading over the next 24 - 48 hours.  We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle however it is slowly creeping down to the lower trendline over time.  Also, SCMR is painting yet another upside reversal candle, but is once again price having difficulty following through on any pick up in volumes.  Also note that price is still pinned to the large volume profile PoC while the A/D line continues higher, and it appears as though the bulls are trying to put in a rather elongated double bottom around 565 $.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy and RSI are gaining some strength following bullish divergences over the past week, MACD is still flatlined around the zeroline, and PPO remains neutral. Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross is almost complete flat as well, and the 200-period SMA continues to press lower, now sitting in the heart of the near term OTE short zone.  Considering what is still a rather convoluted technical picture over the short to medium term, we remain hesitant to move back into the market in size on the long side prior to a clearer signal on a break of the current trading ranges.  Until then, we will remain cautiously long in our VST ProTrade and comfortably long in our MT ProTrade.

Optimally we would like to see the market move up to our VST exit target over the next few days prior to a washout back to the downside which would allow us to add to our longer term trade.  Despite this apparent bullishness on our part, we realize that the current extended consolidation off of the 780 $ highs could have alot more room to run until the market starts to trend again.  Ultimately we are still in a large 465 - 700 $ range, which allows for trade flexibility although keep in mind that trading large ranges is often harder than it looks or seems. 

Finally, we will be out of pocket for the next few days due to the Labor Day holiday in the US, however we will issue email and Slack alerts if warranted by extreme price action. Also, AKWAnalytics should be available on Slack during the morning hours over the weekend, but if not please leave a DM and he will get back to you asap.  Thanks and have a great one!

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September 05, 2016, 05:50:37 AM

BTC is starting to move again and it is now above $600. It would be nice to gave an update from you. I appreciate the thorough analysis in the OP and I hope you get to update your forecast considering the latest development. Thanks.

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