Can The Future Value of Bitcoin be Predicted "Accurately" ?

[coinlee]

Hello Fellas and Bellas,

I'm trying to firstly conceptualize and then hopefully create an accurate Bitcoin Future Valuation tool of some sort. It would essentially be a tool that lets you "scientifically"  and accurately forecast the Value/Price of 1 Bitcoin (and X amount of Bitcoins) in regards to the short,mid and long term future. It would obviously use specific metrics coupled with real-time market sentiment readings which would cause real-time fluctuation/ramifications to the future Valuations .

But i want to ask, is this even possible? I know predicting the future of ANYTHING is deemed impossible but at the very best i am trying to create something that can be classed as REALISTIC in terms of the future projections it provides.


Your thoughts?

[1713964885]

1713964885

[Jhanzo]

Absolutely not.  You can speculate the future price based on some statistic but predicting it with 100% accuracy is impossible.

[coinlee]

My good (would-be) friend, "100% accuracy" is not the aim of the game, so to speak. A smooth and viable overall future valuation is whats being pursued here. With some level of accuracy, obviously.

2 words spring to mind.

1) Realistic
2) Conservative


Your thoughts?

[Jhanzo]

My good (would-be) friend, "100% accuracy" is not the aim of the game, so to speak. A smooth and viable overall future valuation is whats being pursued here. With some level of accuracy, obviously.

2 words spring to word.

1) Realistic
2) Conservative


Your thoughts?

It will still be hard.  Sure, you probably will get few correct predictions, but getting it right every single time is simply not possible no matter how good you are.

[Coinster]

It would obviously use specific metrics coupled with real-time market sentiment readings which would cause real-time fluctuation/ramifications to the future Valuations .

I think there are companies that try to write software to do this kind of thing. In fact, Craig Wright, the guy in the middle of all the "who is Satoshi" arguments said he was working on this, where the software scanned things like Twitter posts and other social media to try to find out what sentiment was on a particular subject. The twist was that different versions of the software competed and the one that was most accurate would earn the most Bitcoin, allowing it to buy more computing resources and grow. So the software would sort of evolve, on its own, into a profitable entity. It was very interesting stuff.

But i want to ask, is this even possible?

It may be possible to gain slight insights into where the market is headed occasionally, yes. I guess it depends on the assumptions of what the data meant. It could also be that the software might stumble onto a trend that proved accurate for a while. Of course nobody can predict the future with a high degree of accuracy all the time. For example, when Bitfinex was hacked for millions of dollars a little while ago the price crashed like over $100 or something ridiculous and it's only now recovering. That could never be predicted.

[OmegaStarScream]

Some news could affect the price with one way or another and you could predict little bit but the price is mostly based on supply and demand so It's pretty much impossible to know since there is coins that get lost every day (which increase the price little bit) , there is Darknet website that opens & close from time to time ... all that could affect price and you can't get all the news and put them into a software just like that.

[serjent05]

I think you can somehow teel the uptrend or downtrend of bitcoin price using news. but it is still at 50% that the prediction is correct.  But to be honest even if you are good at predictions, there is always this X factor that makes it more difficult to tell even if it meets the criteria to make something happen, this X factor can change the outcome of it.

[coinlee]

So in essence, nothing short of a supercomputer with a near infinite amount of real-time data (some of it being obscure data) could forecast the future value of a Bitcoin? Or are we all being a tad bit pessimistic and limiting our own developmental abilities?

I for one believe a system can be created that can divulge future valuations of a Bitcoin. It would just really depend on a robust/uninterruptible feed of real-time data (data which holds weight and has proven to be influential on BTC price) and also a couple of computed variable data "correctors" to "smoothen" out any future Value alterations that can be caused by unexpected "X-factors".

Your thoughts?

[Crypt0kn1ght]

When any process is connected with human in any way it could not be precisely predicted coz human can be driven by emotions and emotions are not rational.

[MONKEYJUNK]

Lot of people think the halving can dictate the price, I doubt that... Yes it have influencie but isn't all...

For example, last month we have the bitfinex hack and the price goes down, who can predict it? None!

In the future will be the same thing, will happen things we don't imagine, bitcoin related or not.

Like was said before, we are humans, a lot of emotions envolved...

[Mastsetad]

I don't think that is possible, even if that was possible "scientifically" then there surely would have been a lot of people predicting accurately the prices of some things and then would earn a ton of money with that, but prediction is a prediction at the end of the day which can never be 100% accurate.

[yndye]

To be able to predict the future value of bitcoin accurately is not possible because there are so many factors affecting the price making it go up or down. One can only speculate whether the price will go up or down base on the past condition of the market because if it can be predicted then there would be so many millionaires now knowing when to buy or sell bitcoin. If someone claims that he can accurately predict what will happen in the future then surely he is bluffing because no one can predict it.

[coinlee]

But lets say we could calculate the number of calamities in X period (1 day/ 1 week/ 1 month/1 year) and we also calculate the likely effect on price alongside the "recovery time". Then we finally factor it into the final future Value projection? (alongside other vital metrics, obviously)

Remember, where there is a way there is a ....


Your thoughts?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I don't think anything can be predicted 100% correctly regarding the future value of bitcoin. It's still very early days & bitcoin can be so volatile.

The price can still be manipulated by large players so we just have to wait & see how everything plays out.

[mobnepal]

No you can't because you can take bitcoin trading just like forex, commodity trading and now with $9billion+ in marketcap it has also considered as good trading pair with large volume. Trading is being done for years but no one have found any method or formula to predict the market, this same goes for bitcoin price.

However sometime when big news are coming or good development are about to come, possibility of pump is high. But nobody can predict price accurately or future of bitcoin price.

[Kevin77]

Well, even knowing the statistic of bitcoin everyday is hard, you won’t exactly identify when it will rise or fall, each day is a new situation, not to mention accurately predicting its price, especially in a long term. However, if you can do that then you must be some kinds of genius.

[Senor.Bla]

many have tried and many have failed. would be a surprise if you could manage. this would make you rich and you could also use it on other currencys and stocks. but i think it is scientifically proven, that you are not able to predict a price anyway.

[gentlemand]

An admirable idea but totally impossible. http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html this is about as close as anyone's going to get.

[danherbias07]

It is a good project but it cant be done. Even if you will have all the statistics and bitcoin usage of each exchange site and wallet sites it is still not possible.
There are people who kept their money in core wallet and you wont know when they will use it.
There have been a lot of users now also so it changes a lot, you can add the gamblers too.

Even the wallet exchanges have different prices of bitcoin everyday, some have a higher price and most are lower.

[digaran]

You will never be able to predict the price but one thing is for sure that you can tell what difficulty if hash power is determined.
And there is no doubt about bitcoin increasing price in the future at least we can can depend on it.