Chart:
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-october-3-2016Bitcoin Price Update for October 3, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Despite a slight pick-up in price action towards the back half of the weekend, it was not nearly as volatile as we expected which has left the market still trapped in the 600 - 610 $ trading range (Stamp). We did see a brief respite above 610 $ for part of the day on Saturday, however the bulls could not hold it which lead to a minor selloff back down to the 605 $ area.
Now as we open October price remains just under the key 610 $ resistance level, although we are getting less sanguine on the market over the near term due to the fact that the temporary move above 610 $ over the weekend failed to spark any FOMO whatsoever. This tells us that the market is not yet ready for a legitimate breakout above the 620 - 630 $ range, or even up to it, so we must remain patient for the time being as the market continues to contemplate where to head next.
Hopefully the 12-hour chart below can help us glean some insight into where we might be heading next, at least from a short to medium term perspective. We can see that the symmetrical triangle was broken mildly to the upside over the weekend, however there was practically no follow-through which is not a great sign for the bulls. Also note that on the breakout SCMR was painting green candles but has once again switched to neutral following a bearish pivot candle from yesterday. Additionally, price is still pinned below the 200 SMA but above the near term EMA's, we do have some new dynamic support building around the 595 $ level, and the market is now well above the pivot area now.
Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see there are still many mixed signals flying around which is an indication of a short term continuation of the choppy, sideways action (although perhaps with a slight bullish bias). Notice that Willy is once again very close to officially overbought and PPO is flashing minor sell signals, both on relatively flat price action, while RSI and MACD hold their respective centerlines. Lastly, volume profile remains porous, particularly between 575 $ and 600 $ which is also where the ST OTE long zone sits, while trading volumes and the A/D line both continue to move to the upside.
All things considered we remain firmly in the bull market consolidation camp for the time being given we are still not getting the type and strength of technical indications that we look for to signal an imminent breakout move in one direction or the other. Momentum and price action are still rather mixed, while market structure and volume seem to be hinting at the previously mentioned bullish bias. Having said that, we still like the idea of a move to the downside to test support before heading sustainably above the key 630 $ level, although it is hard to say whether or not we get a quick spike up first which is why we are not yet taking off any ProTrades.
Speaking of which, for now we will stay in the VST ProTrade off of the 596 $ level with a stop around 600 $, however we will be looking to take it off on the next push to the upside (hopefully in the 615 - 620 $ range). Conversely, if price starts to break down we will have a quick trigger finger so that we can preserve capital for our more favorable buy zones which have not yet come into play.
On that note, we still think a final washout move back down into the 570 - 590 $ area is more likely than not, at least to recharge the indicators and to put a scare into weak hands prior to the big move up and out of the broad 450 - 700 $ consolidation region.
GLGT!
