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Author Topic: why did bitcoin get so powerful so fast -- not just price -- media , etc  (Read 5851 times)
BubbleBoy
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April 03, 2013, 10:18:18 AM
 #21

Bitcoin's rise is based on hard fundamentals

And what are those, pray tell ? We've yet to see a convincing model for pricing Bitcoin on it's "fundamentals". A currency is valuable only in as much as it's being used for trade, more so for a digital asset such as Bitcoin which has no real world use. And if you look at actual trades being facilitated, they are puny compared to the billion dollar valuation. Judging by what we know from real world currency and it's typical M1 velocity, the "GDP" of the Bitcoin economy should be in the 10 billion range to justify the current valuation; maybe less because there's no banking. In reality it's much less than one percent of those 10 billion.

So what people are actually speculating on is the eventual size of the Bitcoin economy. Sadly, by pumping the price they are actually preventing real world adoption and preventing the eventual size to ever be reached; regular people will think twice before buying an asset that today has the purely speculative value that it might be used to facilitate trade tomorrow.


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April 03, 2013, 11:02:04 AM
 #22

Bitcoin's rise is based on hard fundamentals
A currency is valuable only in as much as it's being used for trade, more so for a digital asset such as Bitcoin which has no real world use.
Are you using USD/or EUR only for trading or also for transferring and for save deposit ?
Bitcoin can be used also for all this purposes but much better.
It cannot be confiscated like your fiat deposit, it cannot be inflated, you don't have to ask for permission to transfer it and you can buy anything on the internet with bitcoin(10%cheaper than with credit card).
So their is a working technology and their is a need for it. I would say that is realistic enough.
 

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April 03, 2013, 11:18:40 AM
 #23

The price isn't rising very fast, this was all expected:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142008.0

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April 03, 2013, 12:49:14 PM
 #24

Bitcoin could eventually equalize in total value to the sum exchange value of other world currencies (55 trillion) because it will be universally exchanged. IIt's 1.2 billion dollar valuation vastly understates its ultimate value.
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April 03, 2013, 02:19:26 PM
 #25

Here is a good place to start for that data:
http://www.24hgold.com/english/stat_all_metals.aspx
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April 03, 2013, 03:28:15 PM
 #26

These are some interesting articles that all of us should read. One of the most interesting concepts is to get rid of bitcoin by creating a bubble. Buy massive amounts, then break the bubble and destroy bitcoin. I wonder if GOV would do such a thing?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-03/bitcoins-go-parabolic
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-04/bitcoin-seen-through-eyes-central-banker
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April 03, 2013, 04:11:31 PM
 #27

These are some interesting articles that all of us should read. One of the most interesting concepts is to get rid of bitcoin by creating a bubble. Buy massive amounts, then break the bubble and destroy bitcoin. I wonder if GOV would do such a thing?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-03/bitcoins-go-parabolic
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-04/bitcoin-seen-through-eyes-central-banker

Yes I would do that if I my name was Ben Shalom Bernanke - just print some millions extra of dollars out of thin air and buy bitcoins with them, and dump them all on the market when I have enough coins to bring down the price below $10.
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April 03, 2013, 04:23:46 PM
 #28

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

This is definitely a speculative bubble.

Bitcoin let's you have multiple addresses on one wallet and practically you can simulate 100 buyers and sellers from one wallet to 100 accounts on MtGOX. They can use proxy servers to fool the MtGox security system, and practically simulate all this.
Of course they would need a lot of bitcoin and cash, but in the end they would make tons more. They are trying to suck in investors to buy their bitcoins at inflated prices.

So basically, the bubble will blow in max 1 month's time and prices will drop to sub-$35 values. Bitcoin is a bit hard to be understood by the masses at this moment in time, so this has nothing to do with mass interest in it.

Also, let's not forget the MtGox monopoly- they themselves could be into this whole scheme.
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April 03, 2013, 05:33:42 PM
 #29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

This is definitely a speculative bubble.

Bitcoin let's you have multiple addresses on one wallet and practically you can simulate 100 buyers and sellers from one wallet to 100 accounts on MtGOX. They can use proxy servers to fool the MtGox security system, and practically simulate all this.
Of course they would need a lot of bitcoin and cash, but in the end they would make tons more. They are trying to suck in investors to buy their bitcoins at inflated prices.

So basically, the bubble will blow in max 1 month's time and prices will drop to sub-$35 values. Bitcoin is a bit hard to be understood by the masses at this moment in time, so this has nothing to do with mass interest in it.

Also, let's not forget the MtGox monopoly- they themselves could be into this whole scheme.

What does having multiple MtGox accounts have to do with anything?
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April 03, 2013, 05:45:49 PM
 #30

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

This is definitely a speculative bubble.

Bitcoin let's you have multiple addresses on one wallet and practically you can simulate 100 buyers and sellers from one wallet to 100 accounts on MtGOX. They can use proxy servers to fool the MtGox security system, and practically simulate all this.
Of course they would need a lot of bitcoin and cash, but in the end they would make tons more. They are trying to suck in investors to buy their bitcoins at inflated prices.

So basically, the bubble will blow in max 1 month's time and prices will drop to sub-$35 values. Bitcoin is a bit hard to be understood by the masses at this moment in time, so this has nothing to do with mass interest in it.

Also, let's not forget the MtGox monopoly- they themselves could be into this whole scheme.

What does having multiple MtGox accounts have to do with anything?

He means that anyone could make it seem as if lots and lots of people are selling bitcoin at the same time, thus hopefully starting a snowball-effect to pop the bubble and buy back all the coins for a lower price.

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baybiz
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April 03, 2013, 06:15:36 PM
 #31

What if it isn't a bubble? If that's the case, we are in deep shit.
flyhouse
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April 03, 2013, 08:14:38 PM
 #32

I think that the bubble will burst pretty soon.

MtGox is down at the moment...
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April 03, 2013, 08:28:23 PM
 #33

Bitcoin's rise is based on hard fundamentals

+1

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April 03, 2013, 08:39:12 PM
 #34

Mt Gox is down, which is going to cause the price to drop. People getting excited about the increases but there are going to be plenty more peaks and troughs..

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April 04, 2013, 02:21:06 PM
 #35

I have been a part of this world for a few months, and also went through this, is it a bubble thing, but it isn't - its just speculation, based on how everything that touches the internet becomes massive.

The only reason we are seeing it is because we know what to look for.

I know that very few people I speak to have any idea about bitcoin, and those that do, get it wrong!

We are a good 18 months from seeing big name comedians putting bitcoin jokes on prime time TV - That is when you know its peaked!

So, that is 18 months of 100% to 200% growth is probably $8000 a coin by next summer - then its so big that people have to build an infrastructure to use it sensibly - and that is when the regulations kick in - or the bubble bursts and everyone goes home thinking they could have been a contender!

Smiley

However, if you really want to make money, I would suggest now is the time to buy some Litecoins and PPCoins to build up a good pension! Wink

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April 04, 2013, 08:06:56 PM
 #36

I have been a part of this world for a few months, and also went through this, is it a bubble thing, but it isn't - its just speculation, based on how everything that touches the internet becomes massive.

The only reason we are seeing it is because we know what to look for.

I know that very few people I speak to have any idea about bitcoin, and those that do, get it wrong!

We are a good 18 months from seeing big name comedians putting bitcoin jokes on prime time TV - That is when you know its peaked!

So, that is 18 months of 100% to 200% growth is probably $8000 a coin by next summer - then its so big that people have to build an infrastructure to use it sensibly - and that is when the regulations kick in - or the bubble bursts and everyone goes home thinking they could have been a contender!

Smiley

However, if you really want to make money, I would suggest now is the time to buy some Litecoins and PPCoins to build up a good pension! Wink

The problem with bitcoin is that the market cap is to huge compared to the infrastructure, we are to dependent on MtGox, and to dependent on a few ASIC-miners. I believe in BitCoin in long term but right now it is getting too popular, too fast without having a strong foundation. It will be a shaky trip to the end goal where bitcoin is the no. 1 internet payment system.
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April 04, 2013, 08:45:11 PM
 #37

I have been a part of this world for a few months, and also went through this, is it a bubble thing, but it isn't - its just speculation, based on how everything that touches the internet becomes massive.

The only reason we are seeing it is because we know what to look for.

I know that very few people I speak to have any idea about bitcoin, and those that do, get it wrong!

We are a good 18 months from seeing big name comedians putting bitcoin jokes on prime time TV - That is when you know its peaked!

So, that is 18 months of 100% to 200% growth is probably $8000 a coin by next summer - then its so big that people have to build an infrastructure to use it sensibly - and that is when the regulations kick in - or the bubble bursts and everyone goes home thinking they could have been a contender!

Smiley

However, if you really want to make money, I would suggest now is the time to buy some Litecoins and PPCoins to build up a good pension! Wink

The problem with bitcoin is that the market cap is to huge compared to the infrastructure, we are to dependent on MtGox, and to dependent on a few ASIC-miners. I believe in BitCoin in long term but right now it is getting too popular, too fast without having a strong foundation. It will be a shaky trip to the end goal where bitcoin is the no. 1 internet payment system.

Not at all - infrastructure that works is only good enough - once it isn't, it gets improved if there is a demand - and that is why the market cap and the popularity is so important.

For instance, when mobile phones were released, the signal was only available in the most popular places. They didn't work everywhere like they do today (!) That was because there was enough demand to justify the cost of creating the infrastructure. Nobody was going to build a fully working national service before knowing that it was likely to be used and be profitable!

The same will happen to bitcoin.  People have to buy them first, and we will have a short time where lots of people have alt coins, but can't use them for anything useful.  That drives new companies to make that happen, and that then drives the confidence in bitcoin and the cycle continues.

Luckily, this is something the free market does very well.

Everyone moans about MTGox, and there are plenty of people who are seeing that this is an opportunity.  They are building potential competitors as we moan, and within the next few months, MTGox will be losing market share to new companies who make the exchange process easier - but they need to know that there is money in building the infrastructure, and that is what MTGox is providing!

Let the market sort it out, and it will - its why its such a great way to do business! Smiley

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