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Author Topic: This bubble reminds me of something..  (Read 4158 times)
nicolazza
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April 03, 2013, 01:46:32 PM
 #21

To highlight the absurdity, at the current rate, the "market cap" of BTC would exceed the total aggregate wealth of the entire planet in a year. But that amount of wealth is not, obviously, available. And LTC may not be far behind. Something must give, sooner or later.


Fictional wealth can be magnitudes higher than real wealth, this is totally normal. For example, gold have 10 trillion market cap, but it does not mean that there are 10 trillion worth of goods available for purchase if all these gold are poured out. Actually if everyone is selling gold, its price will crash hard since there are not so many cash ready to purchase

Same, if everyone sell their bitcoin, the price will crash to single digits, but just like gold, people have incentive to hold many of their coins and spend only a little, have a deep reserve can give you lots of safety and freedom


So what about the future btc price?  Grin
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April 03, 2013, 02:12:53 PM
 #22

"Tulip fraction", especially its latest followers, risks to face significant losses after the correction, which may happen very soon. Their panic can initiate a snowball effect, in other words - bubble burst.
They will become victims of own greed.

I've just sold a part of my coins @ $123 to fully recover USD amount I previously spent to buy all of my btc. Now I can afford to relax and be a spectator.
I did the same for the last days.
I completely recovered all my EUR, and the rest of my bitcoins is now purely bonus. Now I can wait with peace of mind until the price reaches 10k EUR per coin.
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April 03, 2013, 03:35:23 PM
 #23

"Tulip fraction", especially its latest followers, risks to face significant losses after the correction, which may happen very soon. Their panic can initiate a snowball effect, in other words - bubble burst.
They will become victims of own greed.

I've just sold a part of my coins @ $123 to fully recover USD amount I previously spent to buy all of my btc. Now I can afford to relax and be a spectator.
I did the same for the last days.
I completely recovered all my EUR, and the rest of my bitcoins is now purely bonus. Now I can wait with peace of mind until the price reaches 10k EUR per coin.
Or drop back to $30, who knows. Anyway, now we have nothing to lose.

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April 03, 2013, 06:06:42 PM
 #24

I doubt there would be a market at $1m per coin... I think it will flatline at $1000 max...
It depends on what fraction of the world's commerce is being denominated in BTC.

The bubble will pop when we hit Tehran or Pyongyang...  most likely Tehran .. because the more this goes on the more I believe that Bitcoin is backed by sanction busting oil.   I suspect this article on newsweek is more valid today then last year when it was published.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-29/dollar-less-iranians-discover-virtual-currency

in the most simplest terms,  if your country was sanctioned by the United States and the west...  and you had tons of oil to export but no way to get paid.. wouldn't this be the "best way' to get payment and bypass all the sanctions?  I know if I was some government official in Iran,  I'd be doing this.

1 Barrel of oil =  .79 BTC

or worse..  1 barrel of oil = 1 btc ...  then go drive up the price of BTC so you get paid more.










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Kazu
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April 03, 2013, 07:49:08 PM
 #25

It's not a ponzi scheme, it's classical bubble like dot com or real estate.

Starting from March 16 crowds of greedy inexperienced people (zombies) rush for bitcoin because of "As Seen on TV" factor.
They don't realize what bitcoin is and how does it work, the only thing they believe is that it is everlastingly deflating and profitable.

But every bubble has its peak and then crash.

To start the crash it's only necessary to make a prime time TV show telling a horror story, something like
"poor single mother sold everything to buy BTC at $200 and then committed suicide after it dropped to $150".
Bump! And hordes of greedy zombies are running to sell sell sell in panic.

However, bitcoin will not die. Just a year later the bubble will happen again, then again, and again. I'd say Perpetum Bubble  Grin
Lets hope not.

What needs to happen is somebody (preferably somebody large with money) to say "I'll buy bitcoins for $x.  Not any more than $x, I'm not gonna facilitate a bubble. But I'll buy them at $x." That would truly support the currency in the long term.  Also it could make that person a fair amount of money on every bubble as he is essentially always buying at the bottom.

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