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Author Topic: BTC $140+ RISK FACTOR ANALYSIS  (Read 1146 times)
ewitte
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April 03, 2013, 06:14:29 PM
 #21

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160292.0

Didn't realise Cyprus was that bad.  Undecided

I hear they are talking about an "Iceland" solution.  Really that's what everyone needs to do pull the tape off and move on. 

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jrlichtman
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April 03, 2013, 06:39:10 PM
 #22

That might solve the issue for Cyprus.

The problem is that the issue of levying a tax on bank account holdings is now on the table.

Even assuming that the whole world suddenly switches to virtual anonymous (in theory) currencies, it is no longer the realm of fantasy for your property (i.e. physical property like your house, or your bank account, or anything else for that matter) to be taxed on a one-off basis whenever your government of record requires.

Historically that was actually pretty common, but the world isn't used to this notion any more.
bobmarley666
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April 04, 2013, 10:57:24 AM
 #23

When I made this thread it was not to talk about long term bitcoin valuation. THAT is impossible.
As you all said, there is no reference point, no fixing, bitcoin is worth only what people are willing to pay for it. And that's enough.


There are many risks involved in the long term future - even criminalization of BTC usage and death sentences for using - we can speculate about such things, but that's pointless (while being fun =D)

Nonetheless we can still estimate the short term risks - in the current situation, which stands like this:
* media is getting hot on BTC (slowly yet)
* banks/brokers are getting questions about BTC drawing their attention
* BTC market value around $1.000.000.000 is very small. Using leverage even a small company could buy the whole BTC supply (theoretically). Practically it's impossible due to hoarders.. BUT you don't have to buy them all to make the price shake. When you trade for $50M that's enough. $50M is what, 50 lots (in forex terminology). Many individual FX clients do indeed trade in such nominals on daily basis.


Please do remember that Bitcoin disables government's immortal idea of "getting funds from nowhere" when they need them.
Like: gold confiscation, printing money, taxing everything. If you're interested in economic history, check out what had governments done in times of need (war).

This & this alone can pose a threat so serious to the governments & banks, that they might set on a mission to discredit & destroy BTC.
They fear what they don't understand. They fear what they can't control. They might try to control BTC, they will fail, they will try to destroy it then.

It's just my opinion, but regarding #Cyprus - it seems that the Governors Of The World are stupid, dumb and relentless.


That's kind of an OffTopic - because there's not enough global attention on BTC. The current threats are small-scale. Like DDOS, like fake publications, like Twitter panic, etc.
jrlichtman
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April 04, 2013, 11:50:21 AM
 #24

Cyprus was a consequence of upcoming elections in Germany. A bunch of politicians playing to local audiences for re-election, without looking beyond that at all. The EU needs to eventually decide if it is one country or many, with that decision having big consequences both in and beyond it.

I don't think that you can _necessarily_ imply anything regarding global fiat currency management from this though.
therealodog
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April 04, 2013, 11:55:15 AM
 #25

Cyprus was a consequence of upcoming elections in Germany. A bunch of politicians playing to local audiences for re-election, without looking beyond that at all. The EU needs to eventually decide if it is one country or many, with that decision having big consequences both in and beyond it.

I don't think that you can _necessarily_ imply anything regarding global fiat currency management from this though.

agreed, people have been taking cyprus waaaay too seriously. oh well, i've made some decent money from it Wink
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