Thinking about dropping 20-30k on an ASIC?

[KoSoVaR]

I'm going to highly advise against it.  Here are some numbers for though.

Avalon Batch #2 is costing anywhere from 15k - 30k on eBay, forum market place, or any other place really.  But you have to look at is an arms race.  And a tight window.  If you're going on the profit calculator and entering current difficulty and looking at 63gh/s for the current difficulty - you're dreaming.  It still may work out to your advantage but let's go over some math.

Let's estimate that Avalon batch #2 go all online on 4/17.  Hypothetical.  I'm estimating 1 batch 2 avalon @ 63 gh/s.  No power costs are estimaed.

4/5 - Difficulty raises to 7,679,464 (later today)

Let's say there's a 15% increase in difficulty this period, this will increase difficulty in 12 days.

4/17 - Difficulty raises 7,679,464 * 1.15 = 8831383

As Avalon Batch #2 releases 600 units, this could potentially, worst case scenario if everyone starts mining on 4/17, increase hashing power by 65% (600 * 63gh/s = 37.8thps.  There is a current network hashing rate of 55thps.  37.8/55 = 65%).  

This would increase the difficulty by 65% over 4.9 days.  

You start mining 4/17.  

Bitcoin over this period:  3.6BTC * 6 days = 21.6 BTC

4/22 - Difficulty raises 7,679,464 * 1.65 = 12671115

Let's say it regulates at this time and we then get 10 - 15% increase in hashing power this period as well.  Possibly more ASICs go online, or people in general are hashing.  So we're looking at roughly 12 days for this period.

Bitcoin over this period: 2.5BTC * 12 days = 30 BTC

5/4 - Difficulty raises to 12671115 * 1.15 = 14571782

This will give you 2.17BTC per day for 12 days.  Let's say it's quiet, and there's a 5% increase in hashing power this time around.  BFL gets no credit.. cause that shit ain't shipping.  I think Titanic when I think BFL.  Back to the topic...

Bitcoin over this period: 2.17BTC * 12 days = 26 BTC

5/18 - Difficulty raises to 14571782 * 1.05 = 15300371

This will yield 2.07BTC per day for, being optimistic, 12 days.  

Let's say Avalon Batch 3, adding another 38thps to the existing 100 at this point, will increase difficulty 38%.  They are slated to ship May 15th, so let's just say ALL of them go online on the next period.  Which would be June 1st.

Bitcoin over this period: 2.07BTC * 12 days = 25 BTC

6/1 - Difficulty raises to 15300371 * 1.05 = 16065389

Let's say at this point, 38% increase in hashing power hits June 1st.  This is being overly optimistic for you miners because Avalon said May 15th and most likely earlier.  Take everything I say here with a grain of salt.  I'm just your average Joe.

This would increase the difficulty in 9 days (38%).  

Bitcoin over this period: 1.9BTC * 9 = 17.1 BTC

6/10 - Difficulty raises to 16065389 * 1.38 = 22170237

You are now down to 1.4BTC per day.  Up until 6/10 you made about 119 BTC.  You paid 150 BTC for your Avalon Batch #2, or at current rates ~ 20k USD.  BTC is solid at 110 and you have 13k USD back.

Your batch #2 Avalon will be obsolete (if you're buying it from a reseller off of eBay or the forums, or anywhere else..) very quickly.  If BFL releases (whoa whoa, did I say that?) by June, then your down to .1BTC?  .2BTC per day in no time?  

Disclaimer:  I know nothing about anything.  If you missed the boat don't drop everything and try to swim after it.  You're going to get surrounded by sharks.  And then ripped in 20 pieces.

Also a disclaimer, I did not check my math.  All of this is estimates.  It is speculation.  But it is a fair speculation considering batch 2 will bring 38thps and batch 3 will bring 38thps.  Due diligence, people.

Edit:  Oh yea guys, I didn't mention ASICMiner on here.  Yay!

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[crazyates]

So you suspect that over the next 2 months, you will have earned 119BTC. Add that on top of the 88-100BTC that it costs to buy an Avalon brand new, and you're still coming out ahead.

[KoSoVaR]

So you suspect that over the next 2 months, you will have earned 119BTC. Add that on top of the 88-100BTC that it costs to buy an Avalon brand new, and you're still coming out ahead.

Again just some speculation and math.  This is more for the people running to eBay and the forums to spend 150 BTC ~20k USD for a resold unit.  I see a lot of it happening.

Saw one go for 32k last night on eBay.

[bcpokey]

While I think it is fair to use the assumption of all batch 2 Asics coming online all at once on whatever date (as one will have no way of knowing where in the queue you will receive your unit) for simulation, it is not realistic to anticipate all Avalon batch 3 units going online 2 weeks aftere shipping.

Experience shows that there are still people waiting on batch 1 avalons. While we can assume they have learned from batch 1, I still anticipate continued delays amongst 600 large boxes shipped from china internationally.

Good to try to put a little water on tthe fire but I don't think anyone willing to drop 20000 on an Avalon will listen to reason at this point