Historically, chances are high you will be able to buy coins cheaper in future

[RationalSpeculator]

Bitcoin price ($142) is now 600% above the 200 day moving average ($23). - If - this rally will be as big as the one in 2011, the price will peak out 1200% above the 200 day moving average. At this rate that would be somewhere around $450. If the collapse is the same as in 2011, it will then lose 90% in another 6 months, bottoming around $45. $45 would be 10-15 times higher as the previous bottom around $3 in 2011.

However, I think it is reasonable to expect volatility to go down over time. And if not, it certainly is more safe to expect the price to fall more quickly. Maybe the volatility does not go down by 50%, but I take 25%. This would mean it is wise to base your trading on the expectation that it will not peak out at 1200% but somewhere around 900% price above moving average. This would mean price would peak out somewhere a around $300 if we continue to grow at this rate. And the price would after that not collapse by -90% but -70%. That would mean a bottom around $100.

Ofcourse it could also go straight to $1000, or start dropping tomorrow and bottoming out around $10. But in speculation, just like in human behavior, past performance is the best guidance for future behavior, doesn't mean it will, but chances are much higher it will, than it won't. All this to say, I think - chances - are higher you will be able to buy coins cheaper in the future. Chances are higher that selling today part of you will regret it short term, but in the long term that part will thank you. Balancing both, means, sell some, keep some and reduce your exposure as we approach $300.

This is just my opinion. Always interested in good arguments where my reasoning is not logical, or what I am forgetting to take into account - and - why this makes above reasoning invalid.


bitcoin              price         date         200d MA    ratio price/200 MA    since volatility will go down (-25%)
overbought            9     29-May-2011   1.44                       625%                469%
highly overbought  30       6-Jun-2011    2.37                      1266%                949%
oversold               7       4-Sep-2011    9.00                         78%                 83%
highly oversold       2     28-Nov-2011    9.07                         22%                 42%               

Now                  142     3-Apr-2013      23.33                    609%   -> meaning historically we now entered highly overbought territory, comparable to the $9 on 29-May-2011.

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[piramida]

Makes sense, I get similar (slightly lower) values if I try to graph last bubble on a new scale (up to 300, down to ~30). However, I have a feeling that this current growth is different in pace and style, and would not necessarily retract as low as the last one as there will be more confident holders this time (hence cautious growth). We'll see in a month.