[prediction] How this 'bubble' will end

[ineededausername]

Right now, many of you are saying that this kind of growth cannot last forever, and that may be true.  However, it is true without a shadow of a doubt that Bitcoin, if successful, will be worth a great deal more in the future, and to get there, we simply must have dramatic rises such as the current one.  Thus, crashes will not last.

This is not 2011.  The end of the rally will be more like January or August 2012.  A panic sell happens at $500, for example, and for two months, people will be depressed as the price just slides down, but overall, stability is much better, and liquidity improves in the markets.  The fall stops at $350-400, and then we have a consolidation period where we rise into the mid-high $400s and stabilize for a few months.  Then, good news arrives in the form of increased adoption, beginning the next leg up.

The 'bubble' will not end with a bust, it'll end just like the previous two 'bubbles': more adoption, better fundamentals, better liquidity.

[1714905576]

1714905576

[1714905576]

1714905576

[1714905576]

1714905576

[1714905576]

1714905576

[yokosan]

You have put my exact thoughts into words. Agree 100%.

[BitcoinTate]

You have put my exact thoughts into words. Agree 100%.

+1

[NamelessOne]

Amazingly said. I'm looking forward to this eventually happening so I can load up on more coins at the bottom.

[aurora]

the truth is nobody knows how it will end. you can speculate all you want but at the end you will be wrong

[NamelessOne]

the truth is nobody knows how it will end. you can speculate all you want but at the end you will be wrong

But it will go UP and then it will go DOWN, and that will be fun to take advantage of.

[donjoe]

You're only kidding yourself. Bitcoin is already on governmental radars on both sides of the pond. They've already issued statements that they want this thing regulated and brought under control. Sure, it may get to $500 while the authorities scramble to come up with some effective policies, but I don't see them letting it go far beyond that. Not while remaining the same Bitcoin we know now.

[piramida]

Yeah we all know governments have infinite power over p2p technologies right? The most they can do is outlaw exchanges, and it would take *all* governments to cooperate to have any effect. After that bitcoins would go to the black p2p underground market, that's all. Regulate? Try to describe how that would work?

[SomeWhere]

+3000

[randrace]

...with me opening a birthday card from my Grandma and it includes a BTC address. The note attached reads, "Call me for the key, it's in my brain wallet. Love, Gram"

[bitcon]

[matt608]

Right now, many of you are saying that this kind of growth cannot last forever, and that may be true.  However, it is true without a shadow of a doubt that Bitcoin, if successful, will be worth a great deal more in the future, and to get there, we simply must have dramatic rises such as the current one.  Thus, crashes will not last.

This is not 2011.  The end of the rally will be more like January or August 2012.  A panic sell happens at $500, for example, and for two months, people will be depressed as the price just slides down, but overall, stability is much better, and liquidity improves in the markets.  The fall stops at $350-400, and then we have a consolidation period where we rise into the mid-high $400s and stabilize for a few months.  Then, good news arrives in the form of increased adoption, beginning the next leg up.

The 'bubble' will not end with a bust, it'll end just like the previous two 'bubbles': more adoption, better fundamentals, better liquidity.

I agree, there's more down and ups to come, but as usual we'll end up much higher off.  I can't hope to predict at what price those tops and bottoms are so I'm holding tight, as I have done since $14.

[niko]

the truth is nobody knows how it will end. you can speculate all you want but at the end you will be wrong

Define "end". Like this you can always wait for your statement to prove correct (prove the OP wrong at the chosen "end").

I agree that, if no major bad news hit, bitcoins have no reason not to keep increasing in price. It's a useful tool in many ways, and the more people are starting to use it, the more valuable it will be.

[k3t3r]

everyone keep reating the words bitcoin and bubble. and when you see these words repeated by news casters and pundits. nod and agree. thats all.

[Dargo]

I think some corrections could be a little worse than OP describes, but otherwise agree completely.

[Gordonium]

I repeat. There is no bubble. Bitcoin is seriously undervalued right now.

[Herodes]

I repeat. There is no bubble. Bitcoin is seriously undervalued right now.

^ this

authorities scramble to come up with some effective policies.

Ahem... is file sharing stopped ? Is the war on narcotics won ? Is there no prostitution ? When alohol was forbidden in the states, did nobody aquire alcohol ? Or hell, did the governments prohibit or prevent money laundering orchestrated by criminal forces (read: banks) ? At the moment, the worlds largest banks have the ability to do whatever they want. They only need to 'pretend' they adhere to rules and regulations, but it's all a game of pretending. Show me where the money is, and you know who's in charge.. Nothing the politicians come up with in forms of law and regulations can deterr the market if there's a need for a certain product or service. There's also no law of nature that says governments has the right to decide how you should live your life or to decide what you should do or what you should not do. These are all artificial restrictions imposed upon us and we're being conditioned to believe all this hoopla since we was raised in schoold adhering to the propaganda teached by the nation states. Mass media is also a big part of this, forming your image of the world, and how things should be and how they should not be.

In the end - if bitcoins are actually developed by the NSA, CIA or another 3-letter agency, we would never know. Also, to these organizations bitcoin will be hugely interesting, just imagine all the purposes it could be used for. The free market speaks - people want freedom.

[Qoheleth]

They've already issued statements that they want this thing regulated and brought under control.

For what it's worth: at least in the US, those statements included what kind of regulation they want to see, and for the normal user who treats BTC as a currency, it's "nothing at all". The ones who are affected are only exchanges, companies who transfer bitcoins between third parties (e.g. online wallet services), and miners who cash out for fiat (which will create huge demand for goods and services denominated in BTC, as miners search for a way to spend it without having to fear classification as an MSB).

[evolve]

I don't know when this thing is going to pop, but the higher and faster it rises, the harder it'll likely come down.  My prediction is that a flash crash will turn into a long decline to the mid-high singles followed by a return the mean around $15-20. I think we will then see a period of stability and slow growth until the next bubble.

Pretty much exactly how it played out last time, except with slightly higher lows.

[proudhon]

I think we finally made it to the top.  I know, I know.  I'm as exhausted as you guys.  Relax now, and settle in for the long slow slide.  



I've got a few weeks to get some funds ready for the teens and below.

[ineededausername]

I think we finally made it to the top.  I know, I know.  I'm as exhausted as you guys.  Relax now, and settle in for the long slow slide.  

mmm-hm.

[Crazy]

I'd usually agree with you proudhon, but these bulls are starting to convince me things might be different now. Logic tells me otherwise, but I can't deny what I'm seeing. They just keep buying these dips.

Note: This probably means I'm about to lose money.

[piramida]

Oh no, even Crazy bears are turning bullish, is the top in sight?

[mp420]

By now, we are in such a late stage of the rally, that I think we can definitively say the bubble has peaked when we see a weekly red candle. Depends, of course, but I think I'm seeing the sort of euphoria that would signify we're close to the peak (at least temporally, price may go up significantly yet).

[BitcoinTate]

If this is a bubble... and that is a bif "If"... then top will be past $1000.00 in a month or two.

[Zendata]

By now, we are in such a late stage of the rally, that I think we can definitively say the bubble has peaked when we see a weekly red candle. Depends, of course, but I think I'm seeing the sort of euphoria that would signify we're close to the peak (at least temporally, price may go up significantly yet).

Weekly? All it takes is one good one

[Herodes]

Yeah we all know governments have infinite power over p2p technologies right? The most they can do is outlaw exchanges, and it would take *all* governments to cooperate to have any effect. After that bitcoins would go to the black p2p underground market, that's all. Regulate? Try to describe how that would work?

there's no need for regulation. The market will take care of itself.

[donjoe]

The most they can do is outlaw exchanges, and it would take *all* governments to cooperate to have any effect. After that bitcoins would go to the black p2p underground market, that's all.

The black P2P underground market means very slow transactions, which would kill one of the most desirable aspects of Bitcoin as a purely digital currency. Like I said, if the gov't decides to crack down on it, it won't survive as the Bitcoin we're used to and its price will definitely take an immense hit.

But yeah, I hadn't read about the FinCEN ruling or whatever kind of act that was, when I last posted on this topic. At this time I'm somewhat less pessimistic about Bitcoin's future, though still worried that its protracted survival will unnecessarily delay the adoption of a truly well designed digital currency system that would be based on sound economic concepts (not just a cryptographic toy invented by some random programmer) that could really be a worldwide substitute for all fiat currency systems.

there's no need for regulation. The market will take care of itself.

You must not be from the same planet as the rest of us.