Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[coinling]

This is my long term chart of ltcbtc

There's the downward channel, that's my buy zone, there's the divergence in selling power during the last years, and the resistance around weekly 100 and 200 SMA.

If SegWit is activated, I see no reason why the price wouldn't break out of the channel and probably make a new ATH.

good observation

What is the EWO in your second chart ?

[iamnotback]

@btcbug, more explanation of my prior comment about ETH...

how are the investment is ASCIs related to this?  
Are you making things up again      


(ASCIs, Except if you have proof of course, Is only an incentive to REMAIN and STICK to the chain where your ASCIs Belong, what  2+2 is equal to, big boy?)

I love how you insult me while asking me to explain what you don't know.  

"I am ignorant and you are an asshurl, but tell me what I don't know before you fuck off". Lol. Very persuasive.

Ahem. Ummmm. (Grabs chalkboard and prepares to writes some BIG LETTERS like ABCs for ADHD children)

Uhhh, can SHA256 ASICs on the scale owned by Bitmain be profitably repurposed to any other coin? No. Can GPUs be profitably repurposed from ETH/ETC to another coin or activity? Yes.

Can the supply of hashrate on Bitcoin be suddenly increased by 50% by renting hashrate? No, supply of ASICs is constrained. Can the supply of hashrate on ETH/ETC be suddenly increased by 50% by renting hashrate? Yes, GPUs are not constrained and GPUs from other coins can be incentivized to switch.

Miners on ETH/ETC have no vested interest. Vitalik will be kicking them out someday anyway. They can repurposed to the most profitable coin any time. So miners on ETH/ETC have no vested interest to enforce immutability. On Bitcoin they have huge vested interest to prevent retards from turning Bitcoin into a political clusterfuck or a BDFL such as Vitalik.

More saliently, Ethereum is a power-vacuum because miners have no vested interest. Thus Ethereum can only exist with a BDFL. This is why ETC was able to fork off.

Stop insulting me and respect the knowledge of those who are smarter and more widely studied than you are. Feel free to reason with me, but stop acting like childish nincompoops.

[iamnotback]

Also soft forks turn into hard forks if there is contention. That is why soft forks don't activate without 75 - 95% hashrate support. The authors of UASF are retarded.

Lowering the activation threshold for soft fork of SegWit on Litecoin to say ~60% which is effectively what UASF would be, is very risky. Jihan may be hiding hashrate that can use to create a HF with (he might even be signaling SegWit secretly with some of his hardware in order to lure the UASF into overconfidence).

You try and you will lose your money. I warned you. The big money will not tolerate a non-hashrate driven MOB. If they could tolerate it, they would already have invested in PoShit tokens.

You say you want PoW then you say your don't want PoW. Make up your mind.

The LTC UASF situation is much different than Bitcoin's. For now, in BTC, there is a stale mate between miners so any attempt, be it UASF, BU HF or whatever is doomed to fail until there is a clear winner.

Litecoin on the other hand already has ~70% of the miners behind SegWit (and others that want it are not signalling yet, like ProHashing), want development built on top of it, the community wants SegWit and economic nodes want SegWit. One person blocking this cannot stand, and he won't be able to do anything about it.

But I wrote before that it is not clear if that 70% really exists. Jihan may be fooling you by signaling some of his hashrate to activate SegWit to lure you into a trap.

If you indeed have 70% or 60%, then you don't need a USAF, just lower the threshold. The reason to not to do that is because it is very risky. UASF helps nothing! Everything depends on hashrate.


I have another new theory for Jihan's motivation. He may want Charlie Lee to be more concrete about SegWit being the final protocol update. The last thing Jihan wants is another set of Core-like developers trying to create trouble. Charlie works for Coinbase (or DCG) and so he might be pressured to put stuff on Litecoin's protocol that favors the vested interests of his employers at the detriment of others.

Again my suggestion to coblee is to communicate with Jihan that he would like to come to an agreement on the BIPs that are acceptable to him and that no more "improvement" BIPs will be made after that agreement excepting bugs fixes.

My bet is Jihan needs some commitment from Charlie that he Charlie and DCG will keep their grubby vested interests out of it. Only way to do that is for Charlie to publicly commit to immutability after some agreed upon BIPs (SegWit being the main one and maybe only big one).

Charlie should already have thought out what improvements are ever going to be needed. It is the off chain scaling coin. It can't be the altcoin-of-everything.

Charlie needs to have a talk with Jihan asap.

[miscreanity]

What is the EWO in your second chart ?

I'd assume Elliot Wave Oscillator.

[iamnotback]

Re: USAF Economic Weight

Can anyone check the validity of my assertions so far?

Can BIP148 be cancelled?

Yes. In the event that the economic majority does not support BIP148, users should remove software that enforces BIP148. A flag day activation for SegWit would be the next logical steps and require coordination significant manipulation of the community, most likely towards the end of 2018.

Fixed it for them.  

Well I believe you are correct that a chain split will indeed occur if the longest PoW chain
doesn't support segwit.  The outputs from the new transaction types won't be recognized
by the legacy chain and therefore, any blocks mined with subsequent transactions using
those outputs may not validate.  The 'backwards compatibility' of segwit only means your
wallet won't stop working just because you're not using the new transaction types, or
if you're a minority miner, you can still mine blocks with non segwit transactions,
but the block will always be on top of the longest chain.

The idea behind UASF is to persuade/influence/ miners to fork, but
the problem is that anything except hash power is relatively inexpensive
to spoof.  So, this goes against the philosophy of Bitcoin PoW.

You guys are just regurgitating what you read from me here, here, and here.

But that is good. At least you're learning.

Now you guys need to learn this, this, and this.

You're making some progress but until you lose the itch to destroy yourselves by ganging up as a MOB, then you will continue to destroy yourselves.

The idea behind UASF is to persuade/influence/ miners to fork, but
the problem is that anything except hash power is relatively inexpensive
to spoof.  So, this goes against the philosophy of Bitcoin PoW.

right, but get mostly everyone, bitfinex, stamps, bitpay etc. all supporting USAF, and its not ambiguous and the idea of "spoofing" is a non issue.
its not inconceivable that with a minority hashing power and a minority node count, a UASF is successful and carries with it the BTC brand.

Nonsense. Just a lot more fools who can lose their money. The smart money will sell the USAF minority hashrate fork and buy the majority hashrate fork. Jihan might even temporarily mine on the USAF fork and lie-in-wait, so that the fools sell the legal fork and buy the illegal USAF forkoff, and the smart money will do the opposite. Then Jihan moves his hashrate onto the legal fork and bankrupts all the retards.

Sweet justice in the law of immutable protocol.

Re: The mother of all Hardforks

The mother of all forkoffs, will be the transfer of BTC from all the retards who think Bitcoin is not already perfect as it is, to those who not retards.

The information is available for your edification. LN is coming and it will be good for the BTC price. But LN is never coming to Bitcoin.

You've been warned.

[iamnotback]

Who ever doesn't on board the Litecoin rocket now, is going to be kicking themselves until they are butthurt:

[iamnotback]

Jihan Wu approves of my posts?

I am an ENTP

I am too.

I'm also an Architect archetype, but I can also eagerly switch into Algorithmicist or Sharpshooter mode but I'll burnout of those tangential roles if I remain mired in them too long. Also I can if I want be a Translator especially in a verbal setting because I find writing much too slow, tedious, and non-interactive communication medium. I'm hyper social when I can jam with and perceive the real-time cues of the people around me, but I'll be quickly bored if the social interaction is not stimulating and prefer to either go do sports or solitary mental activity.

P.S. News flash. You've been cited by the villainous noble kingmaker in the HF war of crypto-currency. I'm speculating he may be responding to my posts about the Inverse Commons. Alas, your blog post on the Dark Enlightenment seems to become more relevant every day. I don't think readers yet realize how important this potentially is. I don't think your magnum opus is completed. Or perhaps I am (not!) just off in left field kooky.

Last year, Kevin Pan recommended me a book called The Cathedral and the Bazaar. I got it. We will put lots of money.

I regretted one thing. In China, open source culture is not popular. I did not understand it. We put too less or 0 money into community.

Ahem. Is someone named Jihan reading my posts?

That chart is clearly indicating that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

Litecoin's price is undergoing the same technology adoption as Bitcoin and all the rest, it is just that the first hump is very volatile (because silver is more volatile than gold for the reasons I have explained). So this means Litecoin's price is going to $100+:

Jihan replied?

Let me correct a FUD: miners love LN. LN makes bitcoin price higher, and miners love bitcoin sold at high price, hence miners love LN.

[Kramerc]

All he doesn't like is something that breaks his miners' advantage. That's the pickle right here, I think you make it sound too complicated when, in fact, it's quite easy to understand.

I reserved a first class seat on the moon train. Better not be disappointed!

[Kramerc]

Who ever doesn't on board the Litecoin rocket now, is going to be kicking themselves until they are butthurt!

Well, nobody can say they didn't get good advice from this thread

[iamnotback]

Who ever doesn't on board the Litecoin rocket now, is going to be kicking themselves until they are butthurt!

Well, nobody can say they didn't get good advice from this thread

And sometimes perfect timing:

BW just signaled and LTC price hockey-sticking. Nope, just a coincidence. Not correlated at all!

[kryptopojken]

keep up the good work iamnotback!

[iamnotback]

FYI, I took profits on this surge and wait to buy back again later, because I think actually attain activation is going to take at least 2 weeks and probably longer.

In the meantime, I have bought ETH. It is in a descending wedge pattern that is going to close within 24 hours. It looks like it has to break to the upside. Perhaps Ethereum will make some announcement on the Raiden (LN clone) upgrade coming. Looks like they will beat Litecoin to having a rudimentary beta of off chain scaling.

[talkbitcoin]

FYI, I took profits on this surge and wait to buy back again later, because I think actually attain activation is going to take at least 2 weeks and probably longer.

although i think SegWit news is more powerful than the activation itself but i am also a bit scared of getting in now after i took some profit out.

In the meantime, I have bought ETH. It is in a descending wedge pattern that is going to close within 24 hours. It looks like it has to break to the upside. Perhaps Ethereum will make some announcement on the Raiden (LN clone) upgrade coming. Looks like they will beat Litecoin to having a rudimentary beta of off chain scaling.

haha, to be honest i wouldn't be surprised if they announced it even premature.
Ethereum owners seem to be like showmen who have some tricks or jokes up their sleeves and are keeping it if they get stuck or start losing the audience

let's watch and see what happens. price is currently at 0.0356BTC according to bittrex.

[iamnotback]

FYI, I took profits on this surge and wait to buy back again later, because I think actually attain activation is going to take at least 2 weeks and probably longer.

In the meantime, I have bought ETH. It is in a descending wedge pattern that is going to close within 24 hours. It looks like it has to break to the upside. Perhaps Ethereum will make some announcement on the Raiden (LN clone) upgrade coming. Looks like they will beat Litecoin to having a rudimentary beta of off chain scaling.

Insane volatility, but a great time to make money day trading. I sold ETH at a profit and reentered LTC before the wedge breakout!

It seems someone had a change of heart, we might have Segregated Witness in Litecoin after all.

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/852056453112377344

┗(°0°)┛ ┗(°0°)┛ ┗(°0°)┛

Change of heart: No.
Change of public face: YES

this is what we can call a manipulation using the social media.
1. you start signalling SegWit and push the percentage up,
2. price goes higher than the initial pump.
3. you dump to take a big profit
4. you go on twitter and say something showing you are doubting your decision and create fear that you may stop at 74.9%
5. when price tanked you buy back with the money+profit
6. you say i changed my mind and will continue signalling!
7. price goes higher and now you have more litecoin than you had in step 1.

and by you i mean F2Pool and the gang of investors who dumped in that big down dive.

[JohnUser]

Insane volatility, but a great time to make money day trading. I sold ETH at a profit and reentered LTC before the wedge breakout!

I also sold my ETH (with no loss) for LTC... just after reading your chart on another thread at 4am (forum time) so thanks to you.

[iamnotback]

Perhaps no need to rush on ETH, probably will break out of its wedge to upside tomorrow or next, but it was a very long duration wedge so the pullback before the blast off will probably be days or couple of weeks from now...

FYI, I took profits on this surge and wait to buy back again later, because I think actually attain activation is going to take at least 2 weeks and probably longer.

In the meantime, I have bought ETH. It is in a descending wedge pattern that is going to close within 24 hours. It looks like it has to break to the upside. Perhaps Ethereum will make some announcement on the Raiden (LN clone) upgrade coming. Looks like they will beat Litecoin to having a rudimentary beta of off chain scaling.

Thanks for the info. As i heard Ethereum announcement will be held in EEA and date will be mid-may.

It's May 23rd. But buy the rumor will start in anticipation.

[iamnotback]

We've reached the 75% threshold for activation of SegWit on Litecoin!

https://web.archive.org/web/20170412134213/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

Just need to hold that for 2 weeks. It should climb to 77% if Jihan doesn't increase his hashrate somehow.

[WarrEagle]

Iamnotback, can you analyze the block window period? Or am I misunderstanding that part. It appears according to litecoinblockhalf.com that the window for activation is closing. They percentage of signalling may have eclipsed the 75% threshold. However the number of blocks mined during the 8064 block window is around 65%.

How will this affect the activation? I would attempt the math, but I'm not 100% sure of how to analyze that part. So I will leave it up to someone that has a better grasp.

BTW I went long at .0075 3 days ago.

During activation period 5 (6771 blocks mined, 1293 left): CSV 67.5%, Segwit 65.8%.   
The requirement for lock-in is 75% over one 8064-block activation period.

[thejaytiesto]

Iamnotback, can you analyze the block window period? Or am I misunderstanding that part. It appears according to litecoinblockhalf.com that the window for activation is closing. They percentage of signalling may have eclipsed the 75% threshold. However the number of blocks mined during the 8064 block window is around 65%.

How will this affect the activation? I would attempt the math, but I'm not 100% sure of how to analyze that part. So I will leave it up to someone that has a better grasp.

BTW I went long at .0075 3 days ago.

During activation period 5 (6771 blocks mined, 1293 left): CSV 67.5%, Segwit 65.8%.   
The requirement for lock-in is 75% over one 8064-block activation period.

As far as I know it's 75% for two weeks during a particular period (not sure when the "2 week" period begins counting again), if it goes lower than 75% anytime during that period we go back to 0 and we need to being another period from scratch.

Where the fuck is Bobby Lee? wasn't he supposed to drop the remaining hashrate? we are going to need a solid 80% at least to not get fucked by block variance, and of course pray that Wang or any other big pool doesn't decide to short the market.

BTW Pivx is going to the moon, should have trusted my gut feeling. People love to pump those sub dollar coins, I wonder how high it will go.

[iamnotback]

It must average higher than 75% for 8064 blocks starting from a difficulty (block) retarget which is every 2016 blocks. There is a block every 2.5 minutes on average. Next block retarget in about 2 days.

The signaling reached a peak of 56% thus far:

https://web.archive.org/web/20170412145047/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

In any case, I have sold all my LTC and have traded for ETH. Sell high, buy low. Less drama.

My reason is I am tired of wasting my time looking at Poloniex and also because it is very stressful and not a very productive activity for me, considering my opportunity cost is (I think) high.

Also I have become disgusted with the entire thing. Look at that fugly chart for LTC. It currently has a double top and the chart is so damn manipulated. I can't make any sense of that chart other than I see manipulation.

This is not what we came to crypto for! I think I can safely assume most of came here to invest for the long-term and to accomplish important things for humanity.

I don't care if Jihan Wu is defending immutability or has a dildo up his ass. Ditto that F2Pool bozo.

I want to create something which is a long-term value investment. That changes the Internet in a fundamental way. And also which strips these miners and also these whales and exchanges of the power to leech on us and manipulate us. The only way to accomplish that is to create something which has more value for use than for its monetary value. I realize by now from my analysis of Bitcoin as a commodity that my project BitNet will not be primarily a monetary unit, although it will have a fungible token that I posit will grandly reward long-term hodlers. The point is that users will get more value out of using the token than speculating with it. That will change everything and paradigm-shift away from this nonsense we are trapped in now.

There are more productive things we can do with our time. Well at least I can say that for myself.

LTC may go up. It might even triple or more someday. I don't care. I don't need that money more than I need my productive work, my sanity, and my idealistic purpose.

Look at me. They have me running around like a chicken with my head cut off. Posting here and there, trying to re-educate Bitcoin-as-a-democracy proponents here and there, etc..

Time to sleep. Tomorrow time to work.

Good luck with your trading decisions.

Shelby out.