ASIC Device buying advice and situation

[fixxi.net]

Are these devices legit ? https://products.butterflylabs.com/

Is there competition at the moment on ASIC devices ?

Are these ASIC devices accepted by the Bitcoin network, i.e could they be declared invalid ?

Now with these fast ASIC devices all miners would be looking at getting one ?

With the 4.5 gh/z ASIC Device rate how much Bitcoints you create in a month ?

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[cedivad]

Are these devices legit ? https://products.butterflylabs.com/

I keep betting on "no".

Is there competition at the moment on ASIC devices ?

Avalon, ASICMINER are proved working. There are some other projects going on.

Are these ASIC devices accepted by the Bitcoin network, i.e could they be declared invalid ?

Not sure about BFL, but the other 2 i mentioned are working.

Now with these fast ASIC devices all miners would be looking at getting one ?

Correct. The network hashrate will explode.

With the 4.5 gh/z ASIC Device rate how much Bitcoints you create in a month ?

When you receive yours, if ever, you won't probably be able to mine a single bitcoin in a year.

[fixxi.net]

With the 4.5 gh/z ASIC Device rate how much Bitcoints you create in a month ?

When you receive yours, if ever, you won't probably be able to mine a single bitcoin in a year.
[/quote]

Thanks for the info ! You mean because of calculation complexity it won't get a single bitcoin in an year  ?

[cedivad]

Supposing that BFL is real and start shipping one month from now (almost impossible), you being at the end of the queue, you could receive the device even in 4 months or so. The network difficulty will have increased so much, and will continue to increase so much, that you will never get your investment back.

[Bogart]

With the 4.5 gh/z ASIC Device rate how much Bitcoints you create in a month ?

When you receive yours, if ever, you won't probably be able to mine a single bitcoin in a year.

I by no means mean to encourage someone to give money to BFL, but...

For that above to be true, network difficulty will need to be somewhere above ~8 billion.

Do you really expect that to be the situation?

[luffy]

if you pay with BTC i agree with cevidad. if you pay with $ i am not so sure. of course you can buy BTC instead

[cedivad]

I by no means mean to encourage someone to give money to BFL, but...
For that above to be true, network difficulty will need to be somewhere above ~8 billion.

I didn't do any actual calculations, i was guessing.
However you are one order of magnitude off, the network difficulty needs to be > 600 million for a 4.5GH device to earn less than 1BTC each year. a 100x increase seems somewhat possible in 6 months to me, if BFL ships.

[ammo88]

I'm gonna be a nice guy and advise you to NOT risk your money with BFL..

I got one pre-order with them. Keeps on regretting it, they keep on delaying the shipment for every possible reason...
So the hint is to try one of the companies that have displayed working ASICs, Avalon for example.

[Bogart]

I by no means mean to encourage someone to give money to BFL, but...
For that above to be true, network difficulty will need to be somewhere above ~8 billion.

I didn't do any actual calculations, i was guessing.
However you are one order of magnitude off, the network difficulty needs to be > 600 million for a 4.5GH device to earn less than 1BTC each year. a 100x increase seems somewhat possible in 6 months to me, if BFL ships.

Ah, right you are about me being off by 1 OOM.

Using http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/, I show 4.5GHps capturing < 1 BTC/year a bit above 800 million.

I guess that's not *that* far fetched, if BFL ships.

[robamichael]

With the 4.5 gh/z ASIC Device rate how much Bitcoints you create in a month ?

When you receive yours, if ever, you won't probably be able to mine a single bitcoin in a year.

I by no means mean to encourage someone to give money to BFL, but...

For that above to be true, network difficulty will need to be somewhere above ~8 billion.

Do you really expect that to be the situation?

More important question is what will be the price for 1 BTC. Calculating ROI with current price means nothing, it is pure speculation.

ROI can be calculated without considering the exchange rate if the hardware is purchased with BTC.

[fusion7]

With the 4.5 gh/z ASIC Device rate how much Bitcoints you create in a month ?

When you receive yours, if ever, you won't probably be able to mine a single bitcoin in a year.

I by no means mean to encourage someone to give money to BFL, but...

For that above to be true, network difficulty will need to be somewhere above ~8 billion.

Do you really expect that to be the situation?

More important question is what will be the price for 1 BTC. Calculating ROI with current price means nothing, it is pure speculation.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think BTC/USD exchange rate is irrelevant to the discussion. Assuming BTC is traded at higher price in the future, if one is mining for profit, it might actually be better to just purchase BTC directly and hold them(or long BTC using leverage). If one believes the price of BTC is going down then s/he could obtain the short position by selling call and buying put.

[witherworth]

I by no means mean to encourage someone to give money to BFL, but...
For that above to be true, network difficulty will need to be somewhere above ~8 billion.

I didn't do any actual calculations, i was guessing.
However you are one order of magnitude off, the network difficulty needs to be > 600 million for a 4.5GH device to earn less than 1BTC each year. a 100x increase seems somewhat possible in 6 months to me, if BFL ships.

You're also assuming BFL can get all those units out in 6 months, which I doubt will be the case. I have a feeling we'll be waiting around for a while before everyone gets their units.

[regular]

why not wait for them to ship and reassess.  Ordering a single now considering they have million+ worth of preorders would mean you'd receiving it very late.  It'd be like ordering a 7970 now at full price to has in 6 months.

[johnyj]

There is no choice, BFL is the only company that have product for sell now

Even you mined 1 coin in a year with a jalapeno, that is still about 1 year ROI

[Dexter770221]

There is no choice, BFL is the only company that have product for sell now

LOL...

[BBQKorv]

There is no choice, BFL is the only company that have product for sell now

Even you mined 1 coin in a year with a jalapeno, that is still about 1 year ROI

Well, last I heard BFL might have a working prototype which is not up to the promised hashrate and is using like 4 to 7 times more electricity than advertised (1W/GH..). All that after 7 months of delaying shipments.

Avalons are sold out a long time ago, but if they decide to make batch 4 that might be your best bet to get ASICs fast. ASICMiner should start selling their devices but there might not be any info right now about when that's going to happen.

Helveticoin is doing something on ASICs as far as I understand, but that's also plenty unknown like ASICMiner.

Buying secondhand Avalon is the fastest and also the most expensive way to get ASIC right now.

At the current LTC rates one should just get a bunch of GPUs and start profiting.

[creativex]

There is no choice, BFL is the only company that have product for sell now

Even you mined 1 coin in a year with a jalapeno, that is still about 1 year ROI

BFL could go bankrupt any day, factor that into your ROI calculations. 16 - 22 employees and zero actual products for sale for almost one year? New facilities, fancy airplane excursions, failed chips, respins, etc.

[fnordfnordfnord]

There is no choice, BFL is the only company that have product for sell now

There are plenty of other scammers who will take your money and make you promises.