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Author Topic: Re: 🔶 YOLOdice.com 🔶 play&invest BTC ETH LTC DOGE  (Read 133572 times)
adaseb
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December 13, 2018, 07:05:50 AM
 #2681

Litecoin Action  Cool Cool Cool



I've been studying his strategy and it doesn't seem like a smart way to gamble, basically very risky martingale.

Seems on a win, they increase their base bet a little.

However on a loss they decrease by a similiar amount, however in the photo above they only had 2 consecutive losses.

The problem is that when you are betting with 80% its very very common to run into 4-5 losses consecutivately in a row and say they had a few 10+ wins in a row, they will be betting a very large amount, and if they run into 4-5 losses in a row, they will be also betting those large amounts and end up with huge losses in less bets than the prior wins that they had.

I guess if it works for them, then its good however it seems that it only works if you have a poor performance at the start of the round and your luck changes towards the end.
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December 13, 2018, 09:03:06 AM
 #2682

Litecoin Action  Cool Cool Cool



I've been studying his strategy and it doesn't seem like a smart way to gamble, basically very risky martingale.

Seems on a win, they increase their base bet a little.

However on a loss they decrease by a similiar amount, however in the photo above they only had 2 consecutive losses.

The problem is that when you are betting with 80% its very very common to run into 4-5 losses consecutivately in a row and say they had a few 10+ wins in a row, they will be betting a very large amount, and if they run into 4-5 losses in a row, they will be also betting those large amounts and end up with huge losses in less bets than the prior wins that they had.

I guess if it works for them, then its good however it seems that it only works if you have a poor performance at the start of the round and your luck changes towards the end.
If the multiplier was increased it would become a better strategy imo.
That strategy is good but only when it’s with a 2x or 3x multiplier. On a 1.6 multiplier, a multiply-on-loss strategy seems more appropriate.

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December 13, 2018, 04:05:19 PM
 #2683

Happy birthday yolodice longlive 😍😍

Indeed, it's our birthday today! It's been two years! Honestly it's hard to imagine the time passed so quickly, but here we are!


I think we really accomplished a lot in these 2 years - YD kept adding new features, coins, competition... but what I really value the most is the trust we got from YOU, our Players and Investors. This is something one cannot simply get free. Or even buy with any coins.

Sure YOLOdice must look much different from players', investors' and our own perspective. But I hope we are all having some fun with YOLOdice, and after all that's the whole point. It's a game.

I am really happy we made it through these first 2 years and I really hope to keep running YD long in the future.

Thanks to everyone: Players, Investors, Moderators, Scott and everyone else who keeps their fingers crossed for our project!

Cheers and thanks!
Ethan

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December 13, 2018, 04:10:14 PM
 #2684

Ahahah

Happy birthday YoloDice!

Really proud of having brought a (small, really smally tiny) contribution to this awesome project.

2 years later it's one of the sites everyone gives out when a newbie asks for reliable gambling site and that's a real achievement Cheesy

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December 13, 2018, 04:54:23 PM
 #2685

Happy Birthday Yolodice and congratulations to ethan for running such a great and successful gambling site. From the early days, I know there is a bright future for this one. Can we expect a competition in the coming days? Smiley

 
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December 13, 2018, 06:17:11 PM
 #2686

Happy Birthday Yolodice and congratulations to ethan for running such a great and successful gambling site. From the early days, I know there is a bright future for this one. Can we expect a competition in the coming days? Smiley

Hmm let's hope there's one. I'll be able to connect to their website again... Might try and invest some Doge in the bankroll (was ltc accepted or not for investments, I can't remember)...

The top of this thread says that it started in november 2016? We're on decmber now or did they go without a thread for some time?

EDit: ah yes there's ltc investments now (According to the op). Is the doge competition on there still running or has that finished now?

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December 14, 2018, 03:08:27 PM
 #2687



As a little birthday celebration, we've launched a new Ethereum Profit competition!  Come try your luck and win some prizes!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084865.0

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December 15, 2018, 02:18:17 AM
 #2688

Happy bday from one of our first members @109.
Nice competition i will be in with a account I m 6.66eth down Tongue
First I thought it’s another wager contest till I saw it
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December 15, 2018, 04:18:46 AM
 #2689

Happy Birthday Yolodice and congratulations to ethan for running such a great and successful gambling site. From the early days, I know there is a bright future for this one. Can we expect a competition in the coming days? Smiley

Hmm let's hope there's one. I'll be able to connect to their website again... Might try and invest some Doge in the bankroll (was ltc accepted or not for investments, I can't remember)...

The top of this thread says that it started in november 2016? We're on decmber now or did they go without a thread for some time?

EDit: ah yes there's ltc investments now (According to the op). Is the doge competition on there still running or has that finished now?

Usually their competition only last for a week so the doge competition already ended few weeks ago Smiley

Thanks yolodice for giving us another good competition to compete with. Hopefully I won't lose so much coin on this one like the last one LOL

 
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December 17, 2018, 09:30:45 AM
 #2690

Usually their competition only last for a week so the doge competition already ended few weeks ago Smiley

Thanks yolodice for giving us another good competition to compete with. Hopefully I won't lose so much coin on this one like the last one LOL

Indeed, this one lasts one week too.

I am thinking about something like "perma-competition" where we spend a fraction of profit on weekly prizes. This could be like a regular competition, but last a week only, Sun-Sun, and would be fully automated. What do you think?

Cheers,
Ethan

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December 17, 2018, 11:07:38 AM
Merited by dbshck (3), RGBKey (1)
 #2691

Why are you allowing such a big leverage when investing? You are basically forcing people to be very leveraged to have decent returns. Your website says there are 6241.53 BTC as effective bankroll, while only 731.59 have been deposited. That's a 1:8.53 leverage ratio. You are making investments tremendously volatile in exchange of what? Does the casino really need such a big effective (but fake) bankroll to function? Are players really betting enough for that bankroll to be needed?

I was considering investing when I saw that 1 year profits (129 BTC) were quite decent compared to the real bankroll, 731.59. However, they are very low compared to the effective one. And there's no way I invest using 1:10 leverage or anything near that. I'd have to be monitoring my investment constantly (reducing the "offsite" amount when losing and increasing it when winning), which isn't realistic in practice.

Seeing how small volatility in profit is on your website (https://dicesites.com/yolodice), I don't see why you need a 6241.53 bankroll and therefore you should drastically decrease the allowed leverage on your website (you should just remove leverage, as it doesn't benefit anyone but does harm investors).
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December 17, 2018, 11:15:57 AM
 #2692

Why are you allowing such a big leverage when investing? You are basically forcing people to be very leveraged to have decent returns. Your website says there are 6241.53 BTC as effective bankroll, while only 731.59 have been deposited. That's a 1:8.53 leverage ratio. You are making investments tremendously volatile in exchange of what? Does the casino really need such a big effective (but fake) bankroll to function? Are players really betting enough for that bankroll to be needed?
~snip~
Seeing how small volatility in profit is on your website (https://dicesites.com/yolodice), I don't see why you need a 6241.53 bankroll and therefore you should drastically decrease the allowed leverage on your website (you should just remove leverage, as it doesn't benefit anyone but does harm investors).

It benefits me. Most sites have a leverage option bitvest have one too and they're quite good at increasing profits (it increases losses too but that's a separate story).

I have made a profit long term (technically a loss more recently but I'm in profit overall still, this would be impossible with a lower house edge as my profits would reduced dramatically).

The same profit/loss on 0.1BTC can be generated with a 1:10 leverage than a 1BTC stake which I think is quite a nice feature and means you can put less into the house while still being in the bankroll.

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December 17, 2018, 11:28:02 AM
 #2693

Why are you allowing such a big leverage when investing? You are basically forcing people to be very leveraged to have decent returns. Your website says there are 6241.53 BTC as effective bankroll, while only 731.59 have been deposited. That's a 1:8.53 leverage ratio. You are making investments tremendously volatile in exchange of what? Does the casino really need such a big effective (but fake) bankroll to function? Are players really betting enough for that bankroll to be needed?
~snip~
Seeing how small volatility in profit is on your website (https://dicesites.com/yolodice), I don't see why you need a 6241.53 bankroll and therefore you should drastically decrease the allowed leverage on your website (you should just remove leverage, as it doesn't benefit anyone but does harm investors).

It benefits me. Most sites have a leverage option bitvest have one too and they're quite good at increasing profits (it increases losses too but that's a separate story).

I have made a profit long term (technically a loss more recently but I'm in profit overall still, this would be impossible with a lower house edge as my profits would reduced dramatically).

The same profit/loss on 0.1BTC can be generated with a 1:10 leverage than a 1BTC stake which I think is quite a nice feature and means you can put less into the house while still being in the bankroll.

If the average leverage ratio is 8.53, by using 1:10 ratio you are making just a bit more than if everyone was using 1:1 (your leverage would be 1:17). However, your investment volatility and risk of ruin increases dramatically. You'd be in a way better situation if no leverage was allowed (your expected return would be similar, volatility much lower and there would be no risk of ruin, while now you'll eventually hit a -10% and lose everything, it's just a matter of time). You are being forced to use 1:10 because the other investors are doing the same. In exchange of nothing, as the casino doesn't need such a big effective bankroll.
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December 17, 2018, 05:18:59 PM
Merited by dbshck (2)
 #2694

Why are you allowing such a big leverage when investing? You are basically forcing people to be very leveraged to have decent returns. Your website says there are 6241.53 BTC as effective bankroll, while only 731.59 have been deposited. That's a 1:8.53 leverage ratio. You are making investments tremendously volatile in exchange of what? Does the casino really need such a big effective (but fake) bankroll to function? Are players really betting enough for that bankroll to be needed?

I was considering investing when I saw that 1 year profits (129 BTC) were quite decent compared to the real bankroll, 731.59. However, they are very low compared to the effective one. And there's no way I invest using 1:10 leverage or anything near that. I'd have to be monitoring my investment constantly (reducing the "offsite" amount when losing and increasing it when winning), which isn't realistic in practice.

Seeing how small volatility in profit is on your website (https://dicesites.com/yolodice), I don't see why you need a 6241.53 bankroll and therefore you should drastically decrease the allowed leverage on your website (you should just remove leverage, as it doesn't benefit anyone but does harm investors).

I agree. Another way to look at it:  If the casino (consistently) needed the money (e.g. players are placing bets higher than a 1x kelly on the actual bankroll) then you'd actually have a higher expected return (EBG) by having no leverage. So the corollary is a leveraged investment is actually a bet that the casino doesn't need the money!

I do definitely think that leveraged systems are a pretty great way to bootstrap a bankroll, but if I was running the site I'd aggressively phase it out as it became no longer required.

That said, there's one thing that is hard to measure: Having a high max-profit is potentially a very good thing, even it's never utilized. It's a powerful marketing tool, and does give players some assurances that they can bet huge if they ever need (something that appeals to loss-chasers/martingalers). So even if no one is trying to win more than a 1 bitcoin a roll, it very well might be healthy to have a 10 bitcoin bankroll
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December 17, 2018, 06:53:15 PM
 #2695

Why are you allowing such a big leverage when investing? You are basically forcing people to be very leveraged to have decent returns. Your website says there are 6241.53 BTC as effective bankroll, while only 731.59 have been deposited. That's a 1:8.53 leverage ratio. You are making investments tremendously volatile in exchange of what? Does the casino really need such a big effective (but fake) bankroll to function? Are players really betting enough for that bankroll to be needed?

I was considering investing when I saw that 1 year profits (129 BTC) were quite decent compared to the real bankroll, 731.59. However, they are very low compared to the effective one. And there's no way I invest using 1:10 leverage or anything near that. I'd have to be monitoring my investment constantly (reducing the "offsite" amount when losing and increasing it when winning), which isn't realistic in practice.

Seeing how small volatility in profit is on your website (https://dicesites.com/yolodice), I don't see why you need a 6241.53 bankroll and therefore you should drastically decrease the allowed leverage on your website (you should just remove leverage, as it doesn't benefit anyone but does harm investors).

I agree. Another way to look at it:  If the casino (consistently) needed the money (e.g. players are placing bets higher than a 1x kelly on the actual bankroll) then you'd actually have a higher expected return (EBG) by having no leverage. So the corollary is a leveraged investment is actually a bet that the casino doesn't need the money!

I do definitely think that leveraged systems are a pretty great way to bootstrap a bankroll, but if I was running the site I'd aggressively phase it out as it became no longer required.

That said, there's one thing that is hard to measure: Having a high max-profit is potentially a very good thing, even it's never utilized. It's a powerful marketing tool, and does give players some assurances that they can bet huge if they ever need (something that appeals to loss-chasers/martingalers). So even if no one is trying to win more than a 1 bitcoin a roll, it very well might be healthy to have a 10 bitcoin bankroll

I agree, high maximum profits aren't completely useless if players don't play for them, but the benefit from that for investors is way smaller than the extra volatility and risk of ruin that a 1:10 leverage entails. Leverage should simply not be allowed, like in Crypto Games. It forces sensible investors to leverage too or to have to settle with lower returns than they should be getting.
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December 17, 2018, 08:36:18 PM
Last edit: December 18, 2018, 08:43:35 PM by rdbase
 #2696

Usually their competition only last for a week so the doge competition already ended few weeks ago Smiley

Thanks yolodice for giving us another good competition to compete with. Hopefully I won't lose so much coin on this one like the last one LOL

Indeed, this one lasts one week too.

I am thinking about something like "perma-competition" where we spend a fraction of profit on weekly prizes. This could be like a regular competition, but last a week only, Sun-Sun, and would be fully automated. What do you think?

Cheers,
Ethan

I think it is a good thing to have an ongoing competition on a weekly basis.
I noticed it being featured on another dice site I tried out for a couple of days and liked the wagering competition they had running every couple of days then reset once it ended.

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December 18, 2018, 08:41:18 AM
 #2697

Just a small heads-up; the prize pool for the Ethereum Profit Competition we started a couple days ago just passed 50 ETH!



You can check out more details on the YOLOdice Bonus page or here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084865.0

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December 18, 2018, 09:04:27 AM
 #2698

I just saw the competition around, and it is my favourite competition which will get you tons of profit and if you are lucky then you will get so many bonus. So I do hope I can make it at least got some rank on the leaderboard. I do not want to miss this chance to get a lot of coin. Anyway happy belated birthday for yolodice, just checking the thread and joy is already coming
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December 18, 2018, 12:53:17 PM
 #2699

I agree, high maximum profits aren't completely useless if players don't play for them, but the benefit from that for investors is way smaller than the extra volatility and risk of ruin that a 1:10 leverage entails. Leverage should simply not be allowed, like in Crypto Games. It forces sensible investors to leverage too or to have to settle with lower returns than they should be getting.

In the very beginning I did not suspect so many investments would be x10. My own investment was x1 to keep the bankroll stable and I was thinking people would go for stability, but then almost everyone else started investing at x10 and soon it was clear that investing at any other leverage means (statistically) missing the revenue.

I agree that high max profit is a big feature for players - a lot of people play on really high multipliers, targeting high profits in single bets.

There has never been a moment when any investment had to be closed due to site loss. So maybe the concept of leverage is redundant indeed if almost everyone go for x10...

We were thinking about limiting investments to x1 on LTC and DOGE (newly opened bankrolls), but then the max profit would be pretty low.

So in the end we decided to leave leverage option, maybe we'll change it in the future, but it's been working pretty well so far. The only downside I can see is that it adds some complexity to the investments.

Cheers,
Ethan

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December 18, 2018, 01:33:45 PM
 #2700

I agree, high maximum profits aren't completely useless if players don't play for them, but the benefit from that for investors is way smaller than the extra volatility and risk of ruin that a 1:10 leverage entails. Leverage should simply not be allowed, like in Crypto Games. It forces sensible investors to leverage too or to have to settle with lower returns than they should be getting.

In the very beginning I did not suspect so many investments would be x10. My own investment was x1 to keep the bankroll stable and I was thinking people would go for stability, but then almost everyone else started investing at x10 and soon it was clear that investing at any other leverage means (statistically) missing the revenue.

I agree that high max profit is a big feature for players - a lot of people play on really high multipliers, targeting high profits in single bets.

There has never been a moment when any investment had to be closed due to site loss. So maybe the concept of leverage is redundant indeed if almost everyone go for x10...

We were thinking about limiting investments to x1 on LTC and DOGE (newly opened bankrolls), but then the max profit would be pretty low.

So in the end we decided to leave leverage option, maybe we'll change it in the future, but it's been working pretty well so far. The only downside I can see is that it adds some complexity to the investments.

Cheers,
Ethan

Does people really target the max profit often enough? You have to compare the extra money the casino makes from those bets to the absurdly high variance of such high leverage ratios. 1:10 is just ridiculous. An unmonitored 10% drop (which can happen very fast if there's a big gambler) would wipe out every 1:10 investor. Does the casino really need that?

Without leverage, profits wouldn't be much different from now, but you wouldn't be forcing investors to either leverage or just not invest. I bet I'm not the only one that would invest if there was no leverage. In the current situation, returns are too low for unleveraged investments, and high leverage is playing Russian roulette (there's 100% chance that eventually those overleveraged investors will lose everything), which is quite stupid when investing should be profitable.
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