Bitsweep.ga MINESWEEPER GAME with JACKPOT upto 10BTC [MONEYPOT]

[JackpotRacer]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

[joksim299]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking

Lets take for example this bet https://www.moneypot.com/bets/643897416

Expected Value after 740510 (1bit bets) for Minesweeper without Jackpot would be -17031 bits for the player  (he of 2.32%) and add to it payout of 10000 bits (jackpot) at the end expected loss for the player is 7031 bits or 0.95% of total bet amount.
Jackpot bet has a house edge of 98.86% without Minesweeper bet combined.

[Bitsweep]

Thank you for taking my idea of 20 BTC Jackpot and 10,000x Payout. 

he did it a bit different and 20 BTC is max win anyway so he could not chose a 40 BTC Jackpot

question now is who is offering the better one?

btw you didnt answer yet my question in your thread

I can tell you that patrick's one is better, as he can have bets above 2000 bits and makes the winchance for the jackpot higher instead of the jackpot itself!

Can you still make bets above 2,000 bits on other minesweeper games with jackpot like this? I tried to bet 2,001bits on patrick's yesterday but it doesn't getting through

[JackpotRacer]

Thank you for taking my idea of 20 BTC Jackpot and 10,000x Payout. 

he did it a bit different and 20 BTC is max win anyway so he could not chose a 40 BTC Jackpot

question now is who is offering the better one?

btw you didnt answer yet my question in your thread

I can tell you that patrick's one is better, as he can have bets above 2000 bits and makes the winchance for the jackpot higher instead of the jackpot itself!

Can you still make bets above 2,000 bits on other minesweeper games with jackpot like this? I tried to bet 2,001bits on patrick's yesterday but it doesn't getting through

maybe the owner changed the set up again and the kid didnt know about it

[gapjustin]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

Simple, the odds to hit a mine right a way with 1 mine on 25 blocks isn't 1/25 its between 1/25 and 1/26
So less chance to bormally win in exchange for the jackpot. This or you win a little bit less every click.

[JackpotRacer]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

Simple, the odds to hit a mine right a way with 1 mine on 25 blocks isn't 1/25 its between 1/25 and 1/26
So less chance to bormally win in exchange for the jackpot. This or you win a little bit less every click.

where was my math wrong and can you do the same math your way so I see that it is a +EV JP for investors

thx

[joksim299]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

Simple, the odds to hit a mine right a way with 1 mine on 25 blocks isn't 1/25 its between 1/25 and 1/26
So less chance to bormally win in exchange for the jackpot. This or you win a little bit less every click.

where was my math wrong and can you do the same math your way so I see that it is a +EV JP for investors

thx

I explained you that it is not EV+ few posts above.
You have to take both outcomes into consideration.

Lets take for example this bet https://www.moneypot.com/bets/643897416

Expected Value after 740510 (1bit bets) for Minesweeper without Jackpot would be -17031 bits for the player  (he of 2.32%) and add to it payout of 10000 bits (jackpot) at the end expected loss for the player is 7031 bits or 0.95% of total bet amount.
Jackpot bet has a house edge of 98.86% without Minesweeper bet combined.

[JackpotRacer]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

Simple, the odds to hit a mine right a way with 1 mine on 25 blocks isn't 1/25 its between 1/25 and 1/26
So less chance to bormally win in exchange for the jackpot. This or you win a little bit less every click.

where was my math wrong and can you do the same math your way so I see that it is a +EV JP for investors

thx

I explained you that it is not EV+ few posts above.
You have to take both outcomes into consideration.

Lets take for example this bet https://www.moneypot.com/bets/643897416

Expected Value after 740510 (1bit bets) for Minesweeper without Jackpot would be -17031 bits for the player  (he of 2.32%) and add to it payout of 10000 bits (jackpot) at the end expected loss for the player is 7031 bits or 0.95% of total bet amount.
Jackpot bet has a house edge of 98.86% without Minesweeper bet combined.

sorry it looks that I did not understand your explanation. do you have it ELI5?

I explained you that it is not EV+   what you mean with not +EV? for player or MP/Investors?

my opinion is or was that it is not +EV for MP/Investors and MP/Investors should not accept it

[joksim299]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

Simple, the odds to hit a mine right a way with 1 mine on 25 blocks isn't 1/25 its between 1/25 and 1/26
So less chance to bormally win in exchange for the jackpot. This or you win a little bit less every click.

where was my math wrong and can you do the same math your way so I see that it is a +EV JP for investors

thx

I explained you that it is not EV+ few posts above.
You have to take both outcomes into consideration.

Lets take for example this bet https://www.moneypot.com/bets/643897416

Expected Value after 740510 (1bit bets) for Minesweeper without Jackpot would be -17031 bits for the player  (he of 2.32%) and add to it payout of 10000 bits (jackpot) at the end expected loss for the player is 7031 bits or 0.95% of total bet amount.
Jackpot bet has a house edge of 98.86% without Minesweeper bet combined.

sorry it looks that I did not understand your explanation. do you have it ELI5?

I explained you that it is not EV+   what you mean with not +EV? for player or MP/Investors?

my opinion is or was that it is not +EV for MP/Investors and MP/Investors should not accept it

It is not EV+ for the player and is EV+ for MoneyPot investors.
You have to calculate expected values for both outcomes one by one.
If you play 740510 bets at 1bit it is expected for you to lose 7031 bit after winning jackpot.

[JackpotRacer]

but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo

That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.

I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet

let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this

Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000

lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100  
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)

I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits

app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits  
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits

what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors

thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking


edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP  1 in 750 511 bets in average
it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo

Simple, the odds to hit a mine right a way with 1 mine on 25 blocks isn't 1/25 its between 1/25 and 1/26
So less chance to bormally win in exchange for the jackpot. This or you win a little bit less every click.

where was my math wrong and can you do the same math your way so I see that it is a +EV JP for investors

thx

I explained you that it is not EV+ few posts above.
You have to take both outcomes into consideration.

Lets take for example this bet https://www.moneypot.com/bets/643897416

Expected Value after 740510 (1bit bets) for Minesweeper without Jackpot would be -17031 bits for the player  (he of 2.32%) and add to it payout of 10000 bits (jackpot) at the end expected loss for the player is 7031 bits or 0.95% of total bet amount.
Jackpot bet has a house edge of 98.86% without Minesweeper bet combined.

sorry it looks that I did not understand your explanation. do you have it ELI5?

I explained you that it is not EV+   what you mean with not +EV? for player or MP/Investors?

my opinion is or was that it is not +EV for MP/Investors and MP/Investors should not accept it

It is not EV+ for the player and is EV+ for MoneyPot investors.
You have to calculate expected values for both outcomes one by one.
If you play 740510 bets at 1bit it is expected for you to lose 7031 bit after winning jackpot.

@bunt and @J_roc said each click is an independent bet. is it ? or not?

[Bitsweep]

jackpot chance is adjusted, raw outcome must be 0 - 55,000 to win 1,000x your bet amount upto 20BTC!

[joksim299]

jackpot chance is adjusted, raw outcome must be 0 - 55,000 to win 1,000x your bet amount upto 20BTC!

You have to adjust it to the max win which is ~1% of the bankroll,trying to win more than 1% of bankroll will produce an error 'Possible Win Too High'

[Bitsweep]

jackpot chance is adjusted, raw outcome must be 0 - 55,000 to win 1,000x your bet amount upto 20BTC!

You have to adjust it to the max win which is ~1% of the bankroll,trying to win more than 1% of bankroll will produce an error 'Possible Win Too High'

adjusted to max 10btc, thanks for letting me know

[JackpotRacer]

jackpot chance is adjusted, raw outcome must be 0 - 55,000 to win 1,000x your bet amount upto 20BTC!

You have to adjust it to the max win which is ~1% of the bankroll,trying to win more than 1% of bankroll will produce an error 'Possible Win Too High'

adjusted to max 10btc, thanks for letting me know

Bank Roll is 734 BTC and 1% is not 10 BTC but 7.34 BTC just for info