The road to $1000 would be much harder

[BIGMERVE]

If 1 billion people put $10 on bitcoin, then there's your tenfold increase to 1,000.

Now consider that most people put more than $10 (or equivalent in their own currency). Let's say, $50, so now you only need 200 million people. Now this would be difficult for a single country, but remember, we're talking global here.

Now, consider that certain rich individuals are putting in quite a lot more than $10, or $50, more in the thousands and tens of thousands, or more.

That cuts down the 200 million drastically.

Lets be very random and assume that with the wealthy individuals and not so wealthy individuals, it's an average of $1,000 (and tbh, I think my average number there is way too low for the coming months, with whats coming).

We're down to 1 million people now.

Now .. consider businesses that are starting to adopt bitcoin, and how much they're investing into bitcoin to pay their staff and whatever else? That's anybody's guess..

I think people vastly underestimate the crucial point we are at.

You're also not taking into account the amount of people who will cash out as the price keeps rising. There could be 1 person cashing all out for every 5 that buy in.

[Fiery Winds]

The road to $1000 will be exactly 9 times harder than the road to $100.

([$1000-$100]/$100 = 9)

With the assumption that the difficulty ("hardness") to move from one dollar to the next remains constant, which is not true. 

[Bit_Happy]

The term "market cap" is not accurate, since these are not shares of stock.

[Kazu]

The road to $1000 will be exactly 9 times harder than the road to $100.

([$1000-$100]/$100 = 9)

With the assumption that the difficulty ("hardness") to move from one dollar to the next remains constant, which is not true. 

Actually it probably does. The amount of difficulty added due to "OMG ITS A BUBBLE" and attention we attract from DDOSers and the like is roughly equal to the "easiness" added by people bandwaggoning and extra positive press and the like.

[Luckybit]

At first we will be surprised to see 200$. Next time we open our eyes it's past 1000$

my call for this coming week of breaking $200 is in tact

also my call of $440 by April 30th, 2013 will be touched.

From there is anyone's guess.

Here is a very important question. How will you deal with it if BTC really does reach $1 million?

[Elwar]

At first we will be surprised to see 200$. Next time we open our eyes it's past 1000$

my call for this coming week of breaking $200 is in tact

also my call of $440 by April 30th, 2013 will be touched.

From there is anyone's guess.

Here is a very important question. How will you deal with it if BTC really does reach $1 million?

For that to happen, more than likely the dollar will have met us somewhere in the middle by crashing.

I would never cash out...I would just have more buying power with my bitcoins.

[oakpacific]

We choose to accept this challenge because it makes us better.

Let us hope that we will deserve that amount of wealth when that day arrives.

[Bitobsessed]

The road to $50 saw gains of dollars per day.  After $100 we are seeing jumps of $10+ per day.  At $500 we will see jumps of $50+ per day.  $1000 we will see gains in the hundreds.   

[Kazu]

The road to $50 saw gains of dollars per day.  After $100 we are seeing jumps of $10+ per day.  At $500 we will see jumps of $50+ per day.  $1000 we will see gains in the hundreds.   

pretty sure we still see gains Of only a few dollars a day. Sure there will be good days but there will be bad days too. Until btc starts being accepted in local stores you wont see it gaining 10% in sustainable value consistently.

[piramida]

Of course, some of those 75,000 bitcoin trades are people selling. This means that for the price to go up a dollar there are $75,000 more in buys than sells.

I guess it will be a major eye-opener, but *every* buy is a sell at the same time! Surprise!

As for 1k, january next year.

[||bit]

The road to $1000 will be exactly 9 times harder than the road to $100.

([$1000-$100]/$100 = 9)

I don't think so. Using the same new math:

Road to $1000 = [$1000-$100]/$100 = 9

Road to $100 = [$100 - $.01]/$.01 =  9999
------------------------------------------

Relative ease = [9/9999] = .0009

Sweat-o-meter:
[ >10 ]............like really really hard
[ 8 to 10 ).......really hard
[ 6 to 8 ).........difficult or hard
[ 4 to 6 ).........whoooph
[ 2 to 4 ).........interesting
[ 0 to 2 ).........no sweat

.: w/ sweat-factor @ .0009, $100 to $1000 is "no sweat".

[Jobe7]

People think of the price based upon the total amount of bitcoins in existence (almost 11 million).

The price does not go up a dollar after $11 million goes from dollars to bitcoins.

MtGox trades around 75,000 bitcoins per day.

It is those 75,000 bitcoins that set the price for the rest of the millions of bitcoins being used or hoarded daily.

So, if on average, $75,000 moves into the bitcoin economy per day the price will go up by $1 per day.

Just a few weeks ago we saw someone buy 20,000 bitcoins at once. The price was either $60 or $75. That is over a million dollars. $1 million divided by 75,000 is just over $13. Seeing the price go up by $13 is not uncommon.

Of course, some of those 75,000 bitcoin trades are people selling. This means that for the price to go up a dollar there are $75,000 more in buys than sells.

So, in order for the price of bitcoins to go from $140 to $1000/BTC, there would have to be about $65 million more buys than sells.

If $7 million comes into bitcoin per month we will be at $1,000 by the end of the year.

I think we can all fathom many ways in which that much money will be invested monthly.

Urmm .... $7 million per month? Try $400-500 million per 2 weeks.

Check the charts ...

And to the guys talking about their dreams .. I lol' especially the cat one! you sir get a good karma point, may your dreams be happy happy from now on

[shawshankinmate37927]

Given the small "market cap" reality, I think bitcoin can goes to 100 really without too much resistence, which is indeed the case. But from here on, it may become harder to go up to $1000, simply because now we need some "$10bn market cap" (acutally much less than that, but the trading volume in dollar terms have to go up about ten times of current size, or bigger than that).

I do not agree. I think the first $10m was the hardest. Then $100m was not too hard but it leveled out for a while around $350m. But look how fast it went from $1b to $1.5b. The capital pools are a lot deeper now with a lot more market participants.

This may very well be the catalyst that gets us over $10B in very short order:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=166873.0

[Jobe7]

Given the small "market cap" reality, I think bitcoin can goes to 100 really without too much resistence, which is indeed the case. But from here on, it may become harder to go up to $1000, simply because now we need some "$10bn market cap" (acutally much less than that, but the trading volume in dollar terms have to go up about ten times of current size, or bigger than that).

I do not agree. I think the first $10m was the hardest. Then $100m was not too hard but it leveled out for a while around $350m. But look how fast it went from $1b to $1.5b. The capital pools are a lot deeper now with a lot more market participants.

This may very well be the catalyst that gets us over $10B in very short order:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=166873.0

ahem.. some of us are trying to buy more btc before the fiat bubble bursts!

[shawshankinmate37927]

ahem.. some of us are trying to buy more btc before the fiat bubble bursts!

You better hurry up!  When that bubble pops it ain't gonna be pretty for people without bitcoins in their wallet! 

[briannguyen]

We need more online business to accept bitcoin as payment. This will make bitcoin stronger as a currency. Unlike dot-com boom and tulip mania which fragile, bitcoin has a better future.

[herzmeister]

price above > $500 is not justified as long as a single site like SatoshiDice apparently is still an issue and seems to cause some headaches.

[yokosan]

The road to $50 saw gains of dollars per day.  After $100 we are seeing jumps of $10+ per day.  At $500 we will see jumps of $50+ per day.  $1000 we will see gains in the hundreds.   

True, but that doesn't stop it from taking a longer time to reach these points.

Basically you will only reach $1,000 when the market is capable of gaining hundreds in one day, not the other way around.

[Technomage]

Bitcoin can handle a 10x trading volume quite soon. Exchanges will scale and there will be more exchanges. Handling 10x transactions is a different story but the amount of transactions isn't linked to the price of bitcoins. If you have investors buying bitcoins and putting them in a paper wallet, or keeping them at Gox, how does that result in "a lot of transactions"? It doesn't result in anything. It's simply value storage.

Bitcoin's growth as a medium of exchange is not strongly linked to the growth of the price and market cap. Both are growing, but at different rates, and for different reasons. Bitcoin most certainly can reach a 10B market cap before the network can handle 10x transactions.

[dyseac]

I think if we can see some more market stability - more online merchants will adopt btc as a payment method - which in turn will reduce the amount of "Cash Exit" clients. - If you could buy fuel cards / clothing and even pay your electricity bill with BTC then you would be less inclined to exit.

It's just hard for certain tangible products to be paid for in BTC when there is no means to protect the buyer...