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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3011879 times)
Bitcoinorama
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August 06, 2013, 02:30:48 PM
 #5121

On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far.
Yes that is true, but for that kind of project they are really quiet about their project schedule. (Yes, I know: "The competitors!" Wink )
You seem pretty smart.   Can you tell me what possibly a competitor could do by knowing that you have finished your tape out?   How would that help them do anything?   Or that you have populated your board and are testing?   What would that information do for a competitor?   Would it help them get their design done faster?   Would it help them test their design?   Would it help them move up in the line at the foundry?
"competitors":  Everytime I read that I think "LIARS".  "BULLSHITTERS"

It presumably gives you an idea of how far within the race you are, and how much further you have left to travel.

As much as it gives us reassurance to know, it he ambiguity gives competitors nightmares I guess...

Anyway it's not the known competitors that need funding any of us should be worried about, it's the unknown competitors with funding, that do exist as Yifu warned everyone about at Bitcoin 2013.

Yesterday's news which was corrected by WSJ still had elements of truth about it, just a kid that is supposedly doing everyone favours in distributing a non centralised network far and wide, teaming up with the devil, and ex-broker for the bank (Lehman's) that was the catalyst for the largest fraud in financial history selling sub-prime bonds, and genuinely the reason Bitcoin emerged from it's ashes to differentiate money from these people who exist to leech money from everyone else would be the worst possible outcome for all concerned. Total centralisation...

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August 06, 2013, 02:35:16 PM
 #5122

I know a few of you use http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ to estimate your return.   They had a bug in their system.  I contacted them yesterday morning and it was fixed last night.  I recommend revisiting the site.

September units still look good but October is pushing it.   Any delays after October will cause the units to not break even.  Getting the miner online the minute it's ready will be crucial.  Shipping/customs delays will be a killer.   Just to be safe, I'm signing up to host one of my units.

I can't imagine KNC shipping units that are not profitable so I really hope their 'margins on margins' work out. 

This is going to be a nail bitter for many all of us.

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August 06, 2013, 02:38:10 PM
 #5123

I know a few of you use http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ to estimate your return.   They had a bug in their system.  I contacted them yesterday morning and it was fixed last night.  I recommend revisiting the site.

September units still look good but October is pushing it.   Any delays after October will cause the units to not break even.  Getting the miner online the minute it's ready will be crucial.  Shipping/customs delays will be a killer.   Just to be safe, I'm signing up to host one of my units.

I can't imagine KNC shipping units that are not profitable so I really hope their 'margins on margins' work out. 

This is going to be a nail bitter for many all of us.



When you say not ROI you mean ever, or in October?!

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August 06, 2013, 02:55:47 PM
 #5124

I hope they deliver on time. A one-two month delay from October mean people may never get back their ROI.

I wonder how do people come to these conclusions?
When you say "one-two month delay from October" what exactly do you mean?
Do you imply that just a few people will get their miners delayed or most people?
Do you realize there is a huge difference between a few people and most people?
At what percentage of monthly network difficulty increase do you base your conclusions?
Do you realize that the percentage of network difficulty increase is not a constant, thus calculators such as http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ do not create a clear picture of the future.
Do you realize that if it becomes unprofitable for Jupiters to mine, then it becomes unprofitable for anyone to mine (until Gen 2 machines)


September units still look good but October is pushing it. Any delays after October will cause the units to not break even.  


So you know the network hashrate and difficulty in October to be able to make such statements?
If all KNC units are delayed don't you think that this will positively affect the future hashrate and difficulty or put simply if there are no machines, then there is no such drastic increase in hashrate and difficulty.
I know there are other ASIC solutions, but none of them can influence the network as much as what KNC has promised to deliver.

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August 06, 2013, 03:16:43 PM
 #5125

Hey guys about my issue they emailed me today and said they will refund me in USD!

The guys are very professional IMO and too bad I did not catch the pre-orders...
Next time!

I hope they will deliver on time, they deserve to succeed.

Did you originally pay in bitcoin or USD?
Bitcoins through Bitpay (see previous posts).
Hey guys just to inform you that finally I have received my refund in my Bank account.
Thank you again KnC for your cooperation!!
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August 06, 2013, 03:18:19 PM
 #5126

Once these vendors get the pre-order money flowing they stop communicating in any meaningful way(or outright lying). This has been the case with bfl, avalon, & btcfpga...only time will tell if knc will be any different.
I should create an ASIC Company that whispers sweet nothings into your ear as you fall asleep at night just to keep you from admitting that you spent money you shouldn't have on miners.
I won't actually create a product, but I will be extremely vocal and have a non-important status update every day (maybe about chickens and dogs or something Wink )
This should satisfy your appetite and stop you from complaining right?
Wrong!
You and every other person that spend more than they can afford to lose will still complain until they have an actual miner in their hand. There's absolutely no reason to ask them for updates when they just recently stated everything is on track, that's what matters right?
Apparently not to you.

+1
Best argument evar for firing the PR guy right after the IPO.  Real men don't need no CRM.
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August 06, 2013, 03:22:04 PM
 #5127

Do you realize that if it becomes unprofitable for Jupiters to mine, then it becomes unprofitable for anyone to mine...

This is not outside of the realm of possibility and, frankly, is my greatest concern.
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August 06, 2013, 03:29:23 PM
 #5128

Question, I want to throw out there, with the benefit of hindsight, *if* KnC had followed the original path of creating a 6 gh/s (running at 7.2gh/s at the open day) Mars FPGA miner and with the BFL units and Avalon chips now having not shipped, what kind of gains would we have made?

A lot here didn't want to see that miner made, at the time it was a big risk with all that hashrate that was promised looming, but we would have had $2k off the $7k Jupiter for the Mars priced at $2,795, with Mars effectively costing us $795 in June if Jupiter launches on time...

Looking back Mars would have worked out well for all concerned, but agreeably in my mind at the time was an expensive risk to take, which I still stand by, so I don't regret my choice, but good or bad deal, presuming you could have sold off the FPGAs somehow after, maybe eBay?

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August 06, 2013, 03:37:23 PM
 #5129

Do you realize that if it becomes unprofitable for Jupiters to mine, then it becomes unprofitable for anyone to mine...

This is not outside of the realm of possibility and, frankly, is my greatest concern.

Why would that be a concern?
In such a scenario where difficulty is insane (3 billion for example) then only 2 types of people will continue to mine:
people with zero running costs
people, bold enough to invest (mainly electricity) for a future profit

I can assure you that the percentage of these groups is small, compared to the ones who will just stop mining, even though they paid big bucks for hardware.

So when most of the miners stop mining, then it's not very difficult to predict what will happen - difficulty will decline by a maximum factor of 4 until it becomes sensible to mine again.

But I don't see a scenario where most miners will keep mining when profit is less than running costs Wink If that was possible then most GPU miners will keep mining and I don't think that is the case Smiley

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August 06, 2013, 03:41:11 PM
 #5130

After investing that much money in hardware, I don't see as many people dropping out as you do.
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August 06, 2013, 03:48:07 PM
 #5131

Furthermore, you do realise to continuously double the hash rate, we need to continuously double the network? We are not reaching 3 billion difficulty anytime soon, it's questionable we will reach 1 billion next year.

Sure we are in for exponential hashrate increases soon, but once it settles, which it shall as new entrants in the future make proportionately less of an impact, profit will become more of a constant and predictable number. For some it really does make all the sense on the world to wait for that point, for others there are many reasons including excitement as to why they want to risk the chance to be among the early adopters of this tech. Profitable gains are in that, but not to the extent some convince themselves to believe. The risk in ROI here, is that we also have to share the brunt of NRE costs to be in that position. That's not manufacturers being greedy, that's making sure they cover their costs involved and their ass. Also if you don't want future pre-orders again they need to take into account they need to raise funds for their next gen in this lead time as well...

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August 06, 2013, 03:55:38 PM
 #5132

I know a few of you use http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ to estimate your return.   They had a bug in their system.  I contacted them yesterday morning and it was fixed last night.  I recommend revisiting the site.

September units still look good but October is pushing it.   Any delays after October will cause the units to not break even.  Getting the miner online the minute it's ready will be crucial.  Shipping/customs delays will be a killer.   Just to be safe, I'm signing up to host one of my units.

I can't imagine KNC shipping units that are not profitable so I really hope their 'margins on margins' work out. 

This is going to be a nail bitter for many all of us.

When you say not ROI you mean ever, or in October?!

What I was trying to point out is that the website painted a very different picture prior to the bug fix.

Using the default values for difficulty increases,  selecting the unit you purchased, and selecting the month you expect to receive.  

Selecting November returns values showing you never recouping your original investment.   The difficulty increases will probably not look like that but they may be close for 2013.   The 2014 increases don't look possible.  

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August 06, 2013, 03:57:31 PM
 #5133

I know a few of you use http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ to estimate your return.   They had a bug in their system.  I contacted them yesterday morning and it was fixed last night.  I recommend revisiting the site.

September units still look good but October is pushing it.   Any delays after October will cause the units to not break even.  Getting the miner online the minute it's ready will be crucial.  Shipping/customs delays will be a killer.   Just to be safe, I'm signing up to host one of my units.

I can't imagine KNC shipping units that are not profitable so I really hope their 'margins on margins' work out. 

This is going to be a nail bitter for many all of us.

When you say not ROI you mean ever, or in October?!

What I was trying to point out is that the website painted a very different picture prior to the bug fix.

Using the default values for difficulty increases,  selecting the unit you purchased, and selecting the month you expect to receive.  

Selecting November returns values showing you never recouping your original investment.   The difficulty increases will probably not look like that but they may be close for 2013.   The 2014 increases don't look possible.  



But that website also predicts BFL and Avalon have happy customers now, no?

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August 06, 2013, 04:06:58 PM
 #5134

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

Assuming this scenario maintains for the next 8 months and KnCMiner delivers in time and unit starts mining in September 30, at difficulty ~95 million, I expect one Jupiter unit will mine about 137 BTC in 6 months of operation and after that period it wont be profitable to keep paying hosting, as it will be earning around 1BTC per month and falling.


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August 06, 2013, 04:10:31 PM
 #5135

But that website also predicts BFL and Avalon have happy customers now, no?

Lost me on that...  the only thing its taking into account is the difficulty increase based on previous months percentages, hash rate of unit, and start date.  There is nothing in the formula to account for companies releasing X hashing power on the network.

Some say that KNC being delayed just means the hashing rate spike will be delayed-- while that is true.  Bitfury will be adding huge volume along with others.. so the sooner the better (of course).



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August 06, 2013, 04:13:19 PM
 #5136

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

Assuming this scenario maintains for the next 8 months and KnCMiner delivers in time and unit starts mining in September 30, at difficulty ~95 million, I expect one Jupiter unit will mine about 137 BTC in 6 months of operation and after that period it wont be profitable to keep paying hosting, as it will be earning around 1BTC per month and falling.



Unless by some unbelievable coincidence, the public start to embrace Bitcoin through easier access to exchange, useful or know sites adopting it as a payment method, or some corrupt central bank shenanigans pushing BTC price upto a point where it once becomes profitable.

There's also the fact energy companies could drop prices, but haha that's NEVER gonna happen, not in the UK at least, where they caused outrage last winter with privatised energy companies profiteering and forcing pensioners to either starve or freeze. Ironically it may well be worth donating your old units to them so at least they get free heating!

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August 06, 2013, 04:14:31 PM
 #5137

But that website also predicts BFL and Avalon have happy customers now, no?

Lost me on that...  the only thing its taking into account is the difficulty increase based on previous months percentages, hash rate of unit, and start date.  There is nothing in the formula to account for companies releasing X hashing power on the network.

Some say that KNC being delayed just means the hashing rate spike will be delayed-- while that is true.  Bitfury will be adding huge volume along with others.. so the sooner the better (of course).





Sorry assumed this calc worked by factoring in release dates of new tech, thus Avalon's bulk chips and BFL's anything was delivered by now...

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August 06, 2013, 04:16:15 PM
 #5138

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

Sometime in September, this was said at the open day.
The design process we were told was to make equivalent of the final device but plug in some low hashing FPGA boards that they'd send us and then we (KnC, ckolivas and myself) would be able to work on ironing out any kinks before the ASIC chips turned up.
Of course with the ASIC chips there would no doubt be more 'ironing' but most likely minimal.
That was KnC's idea.
We're still waiting to find out when that might happen ...

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August 06, 2013, 04:25:54 PM
 #5139

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

If you have 20% increase each 11.63 days then in 116 days that won't amount to 200% total increase, but much more Wink

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August 06, 2013, 04:28:55 PM
 #5140

Furthermore, you do realise to continuously double the hash rate, we need to continuously double the network? We are not reaching 3 billion difficulty anytime soon, it's questionable we will reach 1 billion next year.

If by "double the network," you mean "double the hashrate," then yeah.  If you mean "double the number of nodes," then no.  
Continuously doubling hashrate is not just plausible, it's likely.  If just a fraction of the chipper's claims turn out to be true, the hashrate is going to do that & more for quite a while.  Keep in mind that we're talking ASICs -- once the R&D is done, and production ramped up, the per-chip cost is nominal, as is required support circuitry.  Consumer prices will reflect total profits, not per-unit profits.  If by selling your chips at 1/100th the price you can sell x101 more chips, that's what you do.

If you have competition, you may be forced to sell your chips at a loss, and a substantial loss, or not be able to sell any *at all.*  
As far as miners shutting down & waiting for difficulty to drop, as someone mentioned above?  Not even going there.

TL;DR:  Doubling hashrate?  Not just possible, almost assured.
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