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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3049421 times)
Bitcoinorama
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August 06, 2013, 06:31:27 PM
 #5161

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.

If you don't like it you can cancel your order and get a refund. They'll either ship on time, or they won't.  

Supposedly they'll still refund your money up to the point they don't ship. So unless they are going to break the law and illegally deny a refund there isn't that much risk, other then opportunity cost if you want to invest in something else instead.

You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?


Presumably as can any company that accepts pre-orders, i.e. all of them, which is why you make payment with credit card for payment protection.

I like this "payment protection" argument. Is it still valid end of September when one paid mid of June? Wink


Of course, it's why I rang my card issuing bank in June ahead if ordering. In the UK we actually technically have 6 years protection compared to Paypal's 45 days...

6 years for credit card payments? Hard to believe, but sounds great, then one could really be patient.
Unfortunately it seems not to be possible to pay KnC directly with a credit card (bitcoin via bitpay, paypall and bank transfer only).
Was it possible in June?

Of course Paypal is a payment processor for merchants to consumers without Paypal accounts and an escrow for those with.

There is some issues with certain banks that see third party payment processors such as Paypal negating their specific consumer protection, which is why you must ask. Barclay's told me Paypal covers the first 45 days, they assume the protection thereafter.

This has always been the reason I've been pro KnC from the off.

Well that and they have a shit hot design team that are super competitive and experienced in FPGA and ASIC design.


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August 06, 2013, 06:32:33 PM
 #5162

You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?
HyperMega;
You know any 28NM foundries that let you book space or will even give you a QUOTE on a wafer run before you design is complete and submitted to them?   Any idea on the advance notice you need right now to get a 28nm lot done?   Money in June to get through vetting process, then they would sign an NDA and start designing, then submittal, then quote, then booking, then wafers, then chips, then..........How many days between June 15 and end of September (math was never my thing)?
This could be a record.

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August 06, 2013, 06:34:18 PM
 #5163

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

Sometime in September, this was said at the open day.
The design process we were told was to make equivalent of the final device but plug in some low hashing FPGA boards that they'd send us and then we (KnC, ckolivas and myself) would be able to work on ironing out any kinks before the ASIC chips turned up.
Of course with the ASIC chips there would no doubt be more 'ironing' but most likely minimal.
That was KnC's idea.
We're still waiting to find out when that might happen ...

Kano, thanks for the info, and we await any info. you can provide this forum in regards to KNC, even they are sometimes a bit cryptic....lol.
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August 06, 2013, 06:48:04 PM
 #5164

Once these vendors get the pre-order money flowing they stop communicating in any meaningful way(or outright lying). This has been the case with bfl, avalon, & btcfpga...only time will tell if knc will be any different.

...I won't actually create a product, but I will be extremely vocal and have a non-important status update every day (maybe about chickens and dogs or something Wink )


LoL!

BLF Jody would be fuming if she read this...
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August 06, 2013, 06:51:19 PM
 #5165

You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?
HyperMega;
You know any 28NM foundries that let you book space or will even give you a QUOTE on a wafer run before you design is complete and submitted to them?   Any idea on the advance notice you need right now to get a 28nm lot done?   Money in June to get through vetting process, then they would sign an NDA and start designing, then submittal, then quote, then booking, then wafers, then chips, then..........How many days between June 15 and end of September (math was never my thing)?
This could be a record.


The willys jeep was constructed in 30 days and that was some years ago.
Don´t see any major problem here.
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August 06, 2013, 06:55:28 PM
 #5166

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

If you have 20% increase each 11.63 days then in 116 days that won't amount to 200% total increase, but much more Wink

About 600% unless I mis-factored somewhere along the way...

I've just ran some calculations and between 25th May 2013 and 5th August 2013 difficulty has increased 208.62%, so he might be correct with the 62% monthly figure.

Of course I'm correct! I know how to deal with interest.

These are the numbers in detail:

The total rise since block 237888 (dif 12153411.7) and block 249984 (dif 37392766.13) amounts to 207.67% raise which means 307.67% in total variance (you had to add the original 100% of the initial difficulty).

That took place in 6 periods of 2016 blocks each, total 69.76 days, average 11.626 days per period

To calculate the average rise of each period of 2016 blocks:

(3.0767)^(1/6) (way to calculate the 6th root) = 1.206 => 20.6% rise each period

Now to calculate the monthly raise, we first calculate the daily raise, which would be,

(3.0767)^(1/69.76) = 1.016240815 => 1.62 % daily raise.

And now we calculate the monthly rate, which is the daily raise to the 30th power (assuming 30 day months, although more precisely would be 30.4 days per month)

1.016240815^30 = 1.6214 => 62.14% raise per month.

has anyone noticed the hash rate rise in the last couple days  
see here... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251759.msg2878635#msg2878635
is this true and/or normal..? A couple of DAYS..?

EDIT: it's probably KnC testing our units...   Wink Wink Wink joke
Bitcoinorama
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August 06, 2013, 07:03:20 PM
 #5167

The average difficulty raise since block 237888 (May 25th, 2013) per every every 2016 blocks (each difficulty adjustment period) has been 20%, which makes for about roughly 62% monthly (considering the average period for each difficulty adjustment has been 11.63 days).

20% each difficulty adjustment period is not the same as 62% monthly Wink
You don't just divide the number of days by the difficulty adjustment period in days and multiply by 20%

If you have 20% increase each 11.63 days then in 116 days that won't amount to 200% total increase, but much more Wink

About 600% unless I mis-factored somewhere along the way...

I've just ran some calculations and between 25th May 2013 and 5th August 2013 difficulty has increased 208.62%, so he might be correct with the 62% monthly figure.

Of course I'm correct! I know how to deal with interest.

These are the numbers in detail:

The total rise since block 237888 (dif 12153411.7) and block 249984 (dif 37392766.13) amounts to 207.67% raise which means 307.67% in total variance (you had to add the original 100% of the initial difficulty).

That took place in 6 periods of 2016 blocks each, total 69.76 days, average 11.626 days per period

To calculate the average rise of each period of 2016 blocks:

(3.0767)^(1/6) (way to calculate the 6th root) = 1.206 => 20.6% rise each period

Now to calculate the monthly raise, we first calculate the daily raise, which would be,

(3.0767)^(1/69.76) = 1.016240815 => 1.62 % daily raise.

And now we calculate the monthly rate, which is the daily raise to the 30th power (assuming 30 day months, although more precisely would be 30.4 days per month)

1.016240815^30 = 1.6214 => 62.14% raise per month.

has anyone noticed the hash rate rise in the last couple days  
see here... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251759.msg2878635#msg2878635
is this true and/or normal..? A couple of DAYS..?

EDIT: it's probably KnC testing our units...   Wink Wink Wink joke

Bitfury? Avalon B3?

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tempestb
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August 06, 2013, 07:32:20 PM
 #5168

More likely it's Minirigs coming online.

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August 06, 2013, 07:37:13 PM
 #5169

More likely it's Minirigs coming online.

Both of them?
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August 06, 2013, 07:40:03 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2013, 07:55:14 PM by HyperMega
 #5170

You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?
HyperMega;
You know any 28NM foundries that let you book space or will even give you a QUOTE on a wafer run before you design is complete and submitted to them?   Any idea on the advance notice you need right now to get a 28nm lot done?   Money in June to get through vetting process, then they would sign an NDA and start designing, then submittal, then quote, then booking, then wafers, then chips, then..........How many days between June 15 and end of September (math was never my thing)?
This could be a record.


Smaller companies like KnC or OrSoC normally do not deal with foundries like GF or TSMC directly.
When they want to realize an ASIC they have to contact an agreed channel partner of such a foundry. These partners are also resellers of the technologies of the foundries and they can make you a quote.

A finalized design (chip layout) is no prerequisite for a quote. You only have to have an idea of your target technology (including the technology flavour e.g. LP or HP), the final die size and the required tech options (e.g. metal stack). Then the channel partner can make you a quote.

KnC/OrSoC did an RTL hand-off. This means that there has to be an additional partner for the ASIC synthesis, layout implementation and sign-off. In ideal case this partner is also the channel partner, because then he has most likely already done tape-outs with the concrete 28nm technology, has all the physical IP (standard cell libraries, PLL, IO cells) in place and knows how to use them to realize an energy efficient/high yield design (which is not trivial in 28nm for a huge die > 100 mm2).

They said that they selected the foundry (probably through a channel partner) mid of June. The layout implementation was most likely not started earlier, because you can not manufacture a design implemented for TSMC at GF and vica versa. Their 28nm technologies are not compatible at the layout level. Channels partners normally do not make you a layout just for fun. Wink

It is true, that an ASIC miner design is simple from the functional point of view (RTL). Two master students can design, verify and bring it to an FPGA evaluation platform within 3 weeks.
A 28nm layout implementation of it is not that easy. One reason for that is the resulting extreme power density (>10 W per 10 mm2 silicon area). One would need an implementation team, which knows how to realize such high performance designs. I guess there are not many of such teams worldwide. I would estimate 8 weeks for such a task, if you want to do it carefully.
Maybe one can do it in 6 weeks. If you do it "fast&dirty" also 4 weeks maybe possible, but that would be a real challenge.

Lets assume they did it in 4 weeks. Then tape-out was mid of July. If they get high priority at the foundry ("rocket run") then the pure initial mask generation and wafer lot manufacturing would take 45 days in absolute best case.
The package is complex. The 300 mm wafer must be probably bumped at another facility (additional partner), before they can be diced in dies and put flip-chip to the package substrate. I would estimate that this will take about 1 to 2 weeks minimum for the first samples.

So where are we:
Tape-Out -> 15th July
Wafer Fab-Out -> 31th August
Packaged samples for lab characterisation in KnC hands -> 15th September

Again, this is an absolute best case plan. Everything must run perfect for it.

How long it takes to bring the ASICs to an PCB, debug all the related firmware and FPGA design on the linux daughter card, to have finally a working miner they can send to customers you can estimate yourself. But 2 weeks are not much time for that tasks. Wink

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August 06, 2013, 07:42:55 PM
 #5171

More likely it's Minirigs coming online.

It's Avalon batch 3.

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August 06, 2013, 08:41:22 PM
 #5172

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
How long it takes to bring the ASICs to an PCB, debug all the related firmware and FPGA design on the linux daughter card, to have finally a working miner they can send to customers you can estimate yourself. But 2 weeks are not much time for that tasks. Wink
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?

This is enough for smart people to make smart move Smiley







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August 06, 2013, 09:04:51 PM
 #5173

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

Sometime in September, this was said at the open day.

How many people apart from you were at the open day? Were there any other bitcointalk members? Just have a theory I want to test out.
Bitcoinorama
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August 06, 2013, 09:08:45 PM
 #5174

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

Sometime in September, this was said at the open day.

How many people apart from you were at the open day? Were there any other bitcointalk members? Just have a theory I want to test out.

There was 4-5. Daggeteo who went to both opendays. His brother was there when I was there. Another English guy, and a Spanish guy. The first one also had johnyt and some others.

What's your point?


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August 06, 2013, 09:22:51 PM
 #5175

On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far.
Yes that is true, but for that kind of project they are really quiet about their project schedule. (Yes, I know: "The competitors!" Wink )
You seem pretty smart.   Can you tell me what possibly a competitor could do by knowing that you have finished your tape out?   How would that help them do anything?   Or that you have populated your board and are testing?   What would that information do for a competitor?   Would it help them get their design done faster?   Would it help them test their design?   Would it help them move up in the line at the foundry?
"competitors":  Everytime I read that I think "LIARS".  "BULLSHITTERS"

No, to be honest I have absolutely no idea how announcing the completion of concrete milestones including dates should help any competitor, when you are on track for September delivery.

They must have a internal project plan with dates for all the major milestones (there are a lot of them), which finally ends with delivery to customers end of September, which is not that far away.

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.


They won't publish any internal timeline because as soon as they had miss a "milestone" people would get very nervous (BFL docet)

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August 06, 2013, 09:27:01 PM
 #5176

I like this "payment protection" argument. Is it still valid end of September when one paid mid of June? Wink

It is valid for many years under Section 75 of the Consumer Credit Act 1974, which simply states: "Pay for something costing between £100 and £30,000 on a credit card and the card issuer's equally liable if something goes wrong."

This only applies to the UK.

It apparently doesn't work this side of the channel where you "explicitly" agree to the Terms and essentially declare yourself a business. I asked my counsel to double check, but it looks like the UK has this nice disposition towards consumers (and consumers who fake to be businesses yet pretend to have S75 consumer protection) but probably not the rest of the EU.
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August 06, 2013, 09:32:33 PM
 #5177

...It's a PCB board and some chips...

Then if everything is on track, when can we realistically expect to see a prototype board and chips hashing? Unless KnC is running significantly behind, or even ahead of schedule, this is not an unreasonable request...

Sometime in September, this was said at the open day.

How many people apart from you were at the open day? Were there any other bitcointalk members? Just have a theory I want to test out.

There was 4-5. Daggeteo who went to both opendays. His brother was there when I was there. Another English guy, and a Spanish guy. The first one also had johnyt and some others.

What's your point?



If your refering to me as the spanish guy, Bitcoinorama, im actually originally from Lebanon.
Not in any way affiliated with Cedartec though  Wink

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August 06, 2013, 09:33:30 PM
 #5178

Dear KNC:

Your Flock is Hungry for an update.
Please bottle feed us... Wah.
With Love:
Ewik From Grass-skirt land.
Aloha


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HyperMega
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August 06, 2013, 09:41:41 PM
 #5179

On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far.
Yes that is true, but for that kind of project they are really quiet about their project schedule. (Yes, I know: "The competitors!" Wink )
You seem pretty smart.   Can you tell me what possibly a competitor could do by knowing that you have finished your tape out?   How would that help them do anything?   Or that you have populated your board and are testing?   What would that information do for a competitor?   Would it help them get their design done faster?   Would it help them test their design?   Would it help them move up in the line at the foundry?
"competitors":  Everytime I read that I think "LIARS".  "BULLSHITTERS"

No, to be honest I have absolutely no idea how announcing the completion of concrete milestones including dates should help any competitor, when you are on track for September delivery.

They must have a internal project plan with dates for all the major milestones (there are a lot of them), which finally ends with delivery to customers end of September, which is not that far away.

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.


They won't publish any internal timeline because as soon as they had miss a "milestone" people would get very nervous (BFL docet)

Yes, that might be true. If you have a look at the "BFL ASIC status" blog at the BFL forum, Josh tried to be really transparent at the beginning of their ASIC project. Many of their problems were not caused by BFL directly. They were also in the hands of 3rd parties, which missed the targets and consults BFL probably not optimal.

So if KnC is already aware of one or more missed internal milestones (caused by themselves or 3rd parties), it would not be ok to claim that they are on track for September delivery. No offence, but in this case such a statement would be a lie, because there is absolute no margin in a realistic project schedule for September delivery, which would allow any time delay caused by a missed milestone  (as shown above).

So one should assume, being on track for September delivery means all KnC internal milestones reached in time so far. Why not announce them in this case?
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August 06, 2013, 09:53:04 PM
 #5180

On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far.
Yes that is true, but for that kind of project they are really quiet about their project schedule. (Yes, I know: "The competitors!" Wink )
You seem pretty smart.   Can you tell me what possibly a competitor could do by knowing that you have finished your tape out?   How would that help them do anything?   Or that you have populated your board and are testing?   What would that information do for a competitor?   Would it help them get their design done faster?   Would it help them test their design?   Would it help them move up in the line at the foundry?
"competitors":  Everytime I read that I think "LIARS".  "BULLSHITTERS"

No, to be honest I have absolutely no idea how announcing the completion of concrete milestones including dates should help any competitor, when you are on track for September delivery.

They must have a internal project plan with dates for all the major milestones (there are a lot of them), which finally ends with delivery to customers end of September, which is not that far away.

From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.


They won't publish any internal timeline because as soon as they had miss a "milestone" people would get very nervous (BFL docet)

Yes, that might be true. If you have a look at the "BFL ASIC status" blog at the BFL forum, Josh tried to be really transparent at the beginning of their ASIC project. Many of their problems were not caused by BFL directly. They were also in the hands of 3rd parties, which missed the targets and consults BFL probably not optimal.

So if KnC are already aware of one or more missed internal milestones (caused by themselves or 3rd parties), it would not be ok to claim that they are on track for September delivery. No offence, but in this case such a statement would be a lie, because there is absolute no margin in a realistic project schedule for September delivery, which would allow any time delay caused by a missed milestone  (as shown above).

So one should assume, being on track for September delivery means all KnC internal milestones reached in time so far. Why not announce them in this case?


I guess ASIC companies prefer to stay silent or lie a la BFL when pre-order money is being spent for good and refunds could become a big problem because of missed deadlines.

Let's remember that all the ASIC projects developed or in development (Avalon, BFL, KnC...) are HUGE projects managed by tiny companies. Many delays (most of them I'd say) are caused by 3rd parties involved in the process, being very transparent with all the milestones is the best from a customer/investor point of view, but tricky for the ASIC manufacturers. If there is no official "missed deadline" wishful thinkers will be happy and won't complain while dream about their money printing machines. The less explanations you give, the safer you are from a PR point of view I guess.

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