Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[DPoS]

We're walking dead.  Zombies.  Mining will now be done by chip companies, probably allied with capital for datacenter fab and operation.  You might buy shares, but shares that will only ROI with steep BTC appreciation.  It's over.  And I barely even started!

all we can hope for now is a repeat of the video game glut of 1982...  let it all fall down and we can come back later and pick from the remains in a few years

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[de_ixie]

Yeah.. I'm not a KnC customer - BFL (ugh) and HF (ugh) - but when I saw this, my first reaction (and it remains my reaction) is that the consumer-miner is out of business once the present generation of machines is no longer viable - those are already delivered or whose delivery is obliged by contract. 

We're walking dead.  Zombies.  Mining will now be done by chip companies, probably allied with capital for datacenter fab and operation.  You might buy shares, but shares that will only ROI with steep BTC appreciation.  It's over.  And I barely even started!

Was there ever any other end scenario?

[The Avenger]

Just caught the newsletter. So basically, what Avenger and I have been saying for quite awhile, has come to truth.

How to stop the refunds? Distract people with a sale of jupiter boards? Tell people they've taped out neptune, which will keep everyone on board for a few more months? Tell everyone they are definitely delivering in April and then announcing on May 1st they have a delay (the way they normally wait until a day after something was promised and announce some issue, i.e. 16th October, November jupiters) to keep people hanging on?

Or are they just so set on their future in the cloud hashing business, they don't really care about the small time buyers of neptune? They'll say nothing and give refunds to those who ask?

So, the "Plan B" promise is their attempt to encourage people not to refund.

But really, as I called it, they don't care if people refund or not. Ultimately, it'll save them having to put 3TH aside and run it for "free" for x months until they can ship physical goods.

I'm sure they'd like to 100% fund the data centre from the neptune mark-up, but, hell, worst case scenerio, they might have to spend a little of their own money

P.S. I see the KnC Director of Communications has logged in again since the last time, to answer all your questions. I guess I just can't see his posts...

[augustocroppo]

 

Hey Bitcoinorama, how is the "plateau" effect going on?

finally the increase seems to flatten
Weird, because with this high BTC value I can image some are even turning on gpus for BTC again..

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin-2k.png
http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

I said it would plateau a few weeks back and was laughed out of the thread, someone threatened to remind me about it to, 'saved for posterity' I believe.

Fact is, there it was, the largest shift in Bitcoin tech, with not really anything else coming online currently, certainly not in line with what just occured. That seismic shift in hashrate, equal to the entire cumulative hashrate since Bitcoins inception 4 3/4 years ago will never reoccur with such impact, in such a short period of time ever again.

[Paladin69]

When BTC hits $2K, then $5K, then $50K due to the laws of supply and demand...I think we're all going to look back on this and wonder why we complained so much.

It's best to buy coins now.  They may fall a bit more to $600 as a new bottom...but coins are becoming more rare with each passing difficulty increase and a constant new influx of people and services wanting to use them.  The majority of the worlds big money investors still have yet to jump in.  People should be jumping in now before they do.

[davebodger]

Sadly, it seems to me, that KNC have used the Neptune pre-orders to crowd-fund not only the 20nm Neptune development NRE costs but also the costs of setting up a new data centre in Sweden and probably with the change left over they have bought a big batch of Jupiters to fill it with.
Once the Jupiters are online the BTC from them between now and 1st July should give them a tidy profit, I think. I guess they have their current hosting facility stuffed with them already.
If they have set it up right it will be continuous production with re-investment acceleating the hardware mountain they are building.
They could even turn the Neptune into a "virtual product" that you never physically receive.
They could just give everyone equivilent hash power in their data centre and say there you go, that's your Neptune.
Delivery problems solved! (for them).
No need to worry about centralisation, we've got it covered!

[DPoS]

Hey Bitcoinorama, how is the "plateau" effect going on?

there is just way too much profit with their 28nm costs all paid down to not just pump them to da moon for themselves

at least asicminer had shareholders..we should of asked to buy shares, not modules

[DPoS]

When BTC hits $2K, then $5K, then $50K due to the laws of supply and demand...I think we're all going to look back on this and wonder why we complained so much.

mining doesn't change BTC price..    BTC price changes mining

[rolling]

So, as suspected, the new business plan is cloud hashing.  After the Neptunes all get delivered, there will be no more equipment deliveries from KNC.  They got sick of all the customer complaints, RMAs, shipping costs, etc.

Going forward, they will sell hashing power only.  They are building the data center regardless of Plan A or Plan B.  The only questions is, where the hashing power/coins will be directed. 

Once it is built and all of the Jupiters are hashing, they will either direct the hashing power to Neptune customers (Plan B) or start selling it (Plan A).

What worries me is that they said they will mine to your wallet rather than to your chosen pool.  What this really means is that KNC will be mining and collecting/stockpiling Bitcoins and then paying out the calculated number of Bitcoins to your wallet.  This means low variance since you get the number of coins calculated by the hash power/difficulty but it also means centralization since you can't move the hashing power elsewhere to balance the network.

[2tights]

This all is a big smoke screen it seems. I'm trying to make sense out of it and am having av difficult time.

I have a batch 1 order. Wtf does this mean? I don't see how this info helps me make an intelligent decision... Do I hodl or bail and reinvest elsewhere?

[dropt]

What worries me is that they said they will mine to your wallet rather than to your chosen pool.  What this really means is that KNC will be mining and collecting/stockpiling Bitcoins and then paying out the calculated number of Bitcoins to your wallet.  This means low variance since you get the number of coins calculated by the hash power/difficulty but it also means centralization since you can't move the hashing power elsewhere to balance the network.

Looks like CEX.io and ghash.io have some competition. 

[RoadStress]

So, as suspected, the new business plan is cloud hashing.  After the Neptunes all get delivered, there will be no more equipment deliveries from KNC.  They got sick of all the customer complaints, RMAs, shipping costs, etc.

Going forward, they will sell hashing power only.  They are building the data center regardless of Plan A or Plan B.  The only questions is, where the hashing power/coins will be directed. 

Once it is built and all of the Jupiters are hashing, they will either direct the hashing power to Neptune customers (Plan B) or start selling it (Plan A).

What worries me is that they said they will mine to your wallet rather than to your chosen pool.  What this really means is that KNC will be mining and collecting/stockpiling Bitcoins and then paying out the calculated number of Bitcoins to your wallet.  This means low variance since you get the number of coins calculated by the hash power/difficulty but it also means centralization since you can't move the hashing power elsewhere to balance the network.

As i have stated in burnin's thread I do understand getting sick of customer complaints, but i don't understand why can't they sell to some select customers?

What if Neptune Batch 1 customers get their 3Th/s before the Neptune comes out and until the moment of actual shipping? That would kick ass!

What worries me is that they said they will mine to your wallet rather than to your chosen pool.  What this really means is that KNC will be mining and collecting/stockpiling Bitcoins and then paying out the calculated number of Bitcoins to your wallet.  This means low variance since you get the number of coins calculated by the hash power/difficulty but it also means centralization since you can't move the hashing power elsewhere to balance the network.

Looks like CEX.io and ghash.io have some competition. 

They are all in on all fronts!

[DPoS]

This all is a big smoke screen it seems. I'm trying to make sense out of it and am having av difficult time.

I have a batch 1 order. Wtf does this mean? I don't see how this info helps me make an intelligent decision... Do I hodl or bail and reinvest elsewhere?

what is your expectation of profit?  If you can make more profit doing anything else with your capital then of course, move it

[augustocroppo]

When BTC hits $2K, then $5K, then $50K due to the laws of supply and demand...I think we're all going to look back on this and wonder why we complained so much.

It's best to buy coins now.  They may fall a bit more to $600 as a new bottom...but coins are becoming more rare with each passing difficulty increase and a constant new influx of people and services wanting to use them.  The majority of the worlds big money investors still have yet to jump in.  People should be jumping in now before they do.

How is that becoming "rare" if 3600 BTC are being supplied every day?

[The Avenger]

This all is a big smoke screen it seems. I'm trying to make sense out of it and am having av difficult time.

I have a batch 1 order. Wtf does this mean? I don't see how this info helps me make an intelligent decision... Do I hodl or bail and reinvest elsewhere?

I'll rewrite what I wrote earlier, to make it a little clearer.

KNC will already be hashing with all the machines they will need to give their 3600 neptune customers 3TH on 1st July. In fact, as I said earlier, it's probably a drop in the ocean in terms of what they plan to have at that time.

Come on! They aren't going to leave millions of dollars worth of machine powered off until 30th June 2014 and then turn them on at midnight!

Which means the customer appreciation batch will be just about as worthless as the batch 2(3), as all these machines will already be hashing, the bitcoin difficulty will have already adjusted/risen to account for these 3600 machines.

So instead of having a few weeks of mining and then seeing earnings decline (as with jupiter), you'll start out with the declined earnings and knc will have cleaned up any profits there was to be made beforehand!

Essentially, your neptunes are going to be pre-mined. You'll get it delivered at the highest difficulty ever seen. You won't be adding a 3TH machine to the global bitcoin hashrate, you'll just be re-attaching it when it's probably already been there for a couple of months.

In other words, knc will reap the benefits of your investment and all the bitcoins they can mine, then pass the leftovers at massive difficulty to people on 1st July. You are paying for that. The physical delivery of the product will just be to end any obligation to you and will most certainly be utterly useless hardware by the time it physically arrives. The cost to power it will probably be more than it can mine back.

[augustocroppo]

In other words, knc will reap the benefits of your investment and all the bitcoins they can mine, then pass the leftovers at massively difficulty to people on 1st July. You are paying for that. The physical delivery of the product will just be to end any obligation to you and will most certainly be utterly useless hardware by the time it physically arrives. The cost to power it will probably be more than it can mine back.

...plus, other ASIC producers are already building their "mining" farms. This is certain and there is no deterrence to stop them to do it. There is, indeed, a very attractive incentive to rise the margin of profits and shift all the risks to the customers. When KnC delivers their customers will have to compete with a difficulty generated by "mining" farms from all ASIC producers.

[dropt]

...plus, other ASIC producers are already building their "mining" farms. This is certain and there is no deterrence to stop them to do it. There is, indeed, a very attractive incentive to rise the margin of profits and shift all the risks to the customers. When KnC delivers their customers will have to compete with a difficulty generated by "mining" farms from all ASIC producers.

There was a school of thought at one point that there would be a rise of these massive farms and a massive decrease in the involvement of small-time personal miners.  Eventually however, it is believed that these farms will essentially kill each other off.  As margins become razor thin the only ones still able to mine at a profit will be the small time miners who have significantly less overhead.

 

[arlekyn13]

So the there's good news and bad news for Neptune customers:

- good news: if KNC is late beyond an unspecified term with shipping (technically that would be 30th of June, no matter what batch your order is), they'll hash for you @ 3TH/s/Neptune until unit/s get shipped
- bad news: most likely your "virtual" Neptune as well as the shipped ones will be worthless due to the huge difficulty KNC is now throwing at the network. The funny part of this is the fact they don't even break their promise to not mine with more than 5% of the sold hashing power for themselves, simply because they will sell the huge hosted hashing power

[rolling]

Essentially, your neptunes are going to be pre-mined. You'll get it delivered at the highest difficulty ever seen. You won't be adding a 3TH machine to the global bitcoin hashrate, you'll just be re-attaching it when it's probably already been there for a couple of months.

Exactly.  This is why cloud hashing is such a scam.  They put the machines on the network and start collecting Bitcoin, then once the difficulty has adjusted a couple of times, they pay out the calculated amount at the higher difficulty and pocket the difference.  Then, once a year or two goes by, they get to keep thousands of machines and the infrastructure paid for by the suckers.

The difference between CEX.io and KNC will be price.  They will likely price the cloud hashing very competitively which will make it hard to resist for most customers.  After all, they can afford to since they have already cleaned up by mining prior to selling and will keep adding hashing power to dilute your earnings.

[DPoS]

There was a school of thought at one point that there would be a rise of these massive farms and a massive decrease in the involvement of small-time personal miners.  Eventually however, it is believed that these farms will essentially kill each other off.  As margins become razor thin the only ones still able to mine at a profit will be the small time miners who have significantly less overhead.
 

they have enough funds now to just push more lying marketing of cloud hashing to all those people who watch 3am get rich quick ads on TV... it will take 2 years for it to work itself out now