Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[Biomech]

What is the most plausible theory for more than two months of silence re Neptune despite apparent discontent of customers?
Here is my speculation on possibilities (from the most probable #1 to almost impossible #5):
1. They are experiencing significant difficulties with Neptune design and want to overcome those problems before updating.
2. They are positioning to change their business model from selling individual units to the "fair shake" cloudhashing model, where customers will be buying slots in the icelandic super-mine managed by KnC. Everyone who ordered Neptune would be offered a slot with a modest increase in hashing power (to 3.5-4TH), but will have to pay extra for "hosting".
3. They were bought by someone or majority bought by a third party (perhaps even by a government-controlled entity).
4. They were bought/invested into by 21e6 (or merged with 21e6). Alternatively, they were supplying Jupiters to a single unknown party (cloudhashing?).
5. They are resting on their prior success and "taking it easy".

1. No
2. Perhaps
3. No
4. No
5. No

It may not be outside the realm of possibilities that they have other projects they are working on?

JOE hit nail on the head.

 

insider?
mind reader?
master spy?
or just plain smart?

from everything I have seen, the bolded meets Occams razor...

[1713895657]

1713895657

[1713895657]

1713895657

[1713895657]

1713895657

[elasticband]

That would most likely be 275 cointerra machines?

Slowly building up since start of December

[The Avenger]

That would most likely be 275 cointerra machines?

Slowly building up since start of December

From the time knc finished shipping November batch you mean?

[idee2013]

That would most likely be 275 cointerra machines?

Slowly building up since start of December

From the time knc finished shipping November batch you mean?

+1

sorry but for me it is to obvious what happend 2 hours ago...or someone else is trying to hide something

[Bogart]

Still visible on the kncminer.com FAQ page, item #2:

We will not mine with more than 5% of the hash rate we sell

[elasticband]

That would most likely be 275 cointerra machines?

Slowly building up since start of December

From the time knc finished shipping November batch you mean?

+1

that would be between 700 - 950 jupiters.

even if it was KnC

15,704,175 - 5% = 785208.75

540000 GH is not 5% of the network

[AussieHash]

Will someone please explain both sides of this

It's smart to keep your Neptune order because:

You are all forgetting who you are dealing with. You are dealing with KnC, not Hashfast, cointerra, Avalon, VMC, etc

KnC were very fair to their October hosted customers.
1) they gave 5 BTC compensation for being about 7 days late
2) they extended the 6 months paid hosting by 1 month
3) they gave additional hashrate (worth about 9btc) for 2 months for hosted Jupiters

Now if you were to 3rd party colocate a Neptune, using about 2700kw power, you will be paying about $650/month plus another $400-600 for the 2 PSUs. Say 6 x 650 + 500 = $4400

The future (4-5 months from now when difficulty is over 20 billion) is centralized hashing in big datacentres with cheap electricity and cooling.

[The Avenger]

That would most likely be 275 cointerra machines?

Slowly building up since start of December

From the time knc finished shipping November batch you mean?

+1

that would be between 700 - 950 jupiters.

Amusing the address ends in 1Nbq2XZaRsKknf5fcT2wTXvBS31PaUWSeX - they know they are f&%king someone 

[Biomech]

Well they basically mislead Jupiter/Saturn/Mercury customers and caused them to delay making other purchases.

They have had their factory going full tilt likely making 28nm cards that they have no intention of selling to the customers that got them off the ground unless they bought into their next generation of devices (thats a big FU in my book)

Absolutely agree.

They never mentioned whether they were selling upgrades so I asked that question explicitly,

If the answer comes back NO then I am done with KNC.

They caused me to delay, spend money I didn't need to and I am not a Neptune customer and don't plan on being one.

I also want to know about the Upgrade Modules as they didn't mention anything about it. I'm with Joe, if they don't sell the modules, I'm done with KNC. I've waited for so long to purchase the modules, and nothing.

It seems they don't really give a shit about their first customers, the people that helped them get off the ground, they only care about their current "Neptune" customers.

Guess I'll be adding more Ants to my farm until something better comes along.




EDIT: Anyone think about what happens to all those miners in the newly built data center IF Plan A actually comes through? That is a shit ton of hashing dedicated just to KNC. I'm fairly certain that would be WAY above and beyond the 5% they've declared to mine for them selves.

My guess would be that they sell shares like CEX does. It's a successful model, so why not?

[OmegaCentauri]

That would most likely be 275 cointerra machines?

Slowly building up since start of December

that would be between 700 - 950 jupiters.

even if it was KnC

15,704,175 - 5% = 785208.75

540000 GH is not 5% of the network

Is it just me, or is there a pattern emerging here? 

[joeventura]

What is the most plausible theory for more than two months of silence re Neptune despite apparent discontent of customers?
Here is my speculation on possibilities (from the most probable #1 to almost impossible #5):
1. They are experiencing significant difficulties with Neptune design and want to overcome those problems before updating.
2. They are positioning to change their business model from selling individual units to the "fair shake" cloudhashing model, where customers will be buying slots in the icelandic super-mine managed by KnC. Everyone who ordered Neptune would be offered a slot with a modest increase in hashing power (to 3.5-4TH), but will have to pay extra for "hosting".
3. They were bought by someone or majority bought by a third party (perhaps even by a government-controlled entity).
4. They were bought/invested into by 21e6 (or merged with 21e6). Alternatively, they were supplying Jupiters to a single unknown party (cloudhashing?).
5. They are resting on their prior success and "taking it easy".

1. No
2. Perhaps
3. No
4. No
5. No

It may not be outside the realm of possibilities that they have other projects they are working on?

JOE hit nail on the head.

 

insider?
mind reader?
master spy?
or just plain smart?

from everything I have seen, the bolded meets Occams razor...

Well I am not a spy and if I was a mind reader then I wouldn't be using my powers here that's for sure.

[OmegaCentauri]

that would be between 700 - 950 jupiters.

even if it was KnC

15,704,175 - 5% = 785208.75

540000 GH is not 5% of the network

Elastic, your comprehension skills seem to be lacking.

Still visible on the kncminer.com FAQ page, item #2:

We will not mine with more than 5% of the hash rate we sell

Also, you seem to be using an old statistic for the BTC network hashrate too. It's currently at 18.43 million, not 15.7 million.

So, yes. They are in fact mining with more than 5% of what they've sold.

[xstr8guy]

...plus, other ASIC producers are already building their "mining" farms. This is certain and there is no deterrence to stop them to do it. There is, indeed, a very attractive incentive to rise the margin of profits and shift all the risks to the customers. When KnC delivers their customers will have to compete with a difficulty generated by "mining" farms from all ASIC producers.

There was a school of thought at one point that there would be a rise of these massive farms and a massive decrease in the involvement of small-time personal miners.  Eventually however, it is believed that these farms will essentially kill each other off.  As margins become razor thin the only ones still able to mine at a profit will be the small time miners who have significantly less overhead.

 

This! ^


Caution!  Extreme FUD below.


I have been an optimistic/glass half full miner from day one.  Not any longer.  In fact, the glass is 3/4 empty.  All ASIC manufacturers are now "Black Hats" with maybe the exception of BitMain.

- I'm now quite aware that most of the "delays" are not actual delays but pre-mining time for the "guys with all of the money" to gorge themselves on profits the should have been our's.

- It's obvious to me now that the presale of ASIC miners to the public was never anything more than a way for these shysters to fund their own massive mining farms.  I actually knew this before but it's just so freaking obvious now that "presales" were never meant to go beyond the first generation of miners.

- And I suspect that all other 2nd generation miners that were to be released to the public (Neptune, Monarch, etc) will never actually reach consumers hands.  They will all be in datacenters whether we want them there or not.  And most of us will end-up abandoning them because of their unprofitablity after hosting costs are deducted.  And just plain forget about 3rd generation ASICs.  They will never reach consumer's hands.


I sincerely hope that all of the MASSIVE "cloud" mining operations will soon be eating each other to survive.  With all of the billions of dollars of ASICs about to hit the network, it will soon be unprofitable to mine (even with free electricity) because the overhead just to host the miners will be astronomical.

My only hope now is the collapse of mining doesn't cause the collapse of bitcoin.

[Biffa]

It makes more sense that the collapse of mining will be the beginning of Bitcoin. Once people can no longer print their own money it starts to become legit.

[DPoS]

My only hope now is the collapse of mining doesn't cause the collapse of bitcoin.

bitcoin worked fine ~$100 last summer..  I wouldn't mind it going back down to screw these apes
there will be a lot more selling pressure of bitcoin than buying and the fees will just increase.

[xstr8guy]

Bitcoinorama has been online at least 4 times since the news broke and is online right now. You can expect answers to your questions straight away!

Don't expect that, frankly he is a great guy but the people he works for are NOT sharing EVERYTHING with him so we should collectively give him a break and not kill the messenger (or lack thereof)

He is a "Director" of some sort, no?  The purpose of having Directors in a company is that they are involved in all important discussions if it concerns their job title.  And wasn't that "Communications"?  So isn't safe to assume that, by his job title, he should be communicating with us about this very important topic? 

[Tehfiend]

While it's nice to finally get an official update it appears we won't be getting any concrete details any time soon and have to read between the lines. These are the main points I took from their update:

1) Neptunes will not ship before May as their 20nm chip design has not been "taped out" at this point. They are also not very confident that they will ship before July hence "Plan B". This means Neptunes will not have a positive BTC ROI with the current projected increase in network hashrate (which "Plan B" will contribute too).

2) They have chosen not to share the success of their 28nm chip with the early investustomers that took huge risks to make that success possible and instead will be directly competing against them by devaluing their Jupiter/Neptune miners with a private 28nm mining farm which will raise network difficulty prior to Neptune delivery.

I've really tried to hold onto the belief than KNC is 100% legit but I'm really starting to doubt that now. I seems very likely that the "Q1" part of the ship date advertised in the Neptune batch #1 pre-order was never a possibility and was intentionally misleading (worked on me). I have no idea why the "we're probably going to sell Jupiters from stock soon, hold onto some BTC" turned into "nevermind we're keeping them for ourselves" but greed is really the best guess.

Their "Plan B" might sound great on the surface but it is actually quite terrible for their Neptune customers. First, a private 28nm mining farm will directly lower the ROI of Neptune pre-orders before they even ship. Second if you really consider the fine print, Neptunes won't technically be late until July which will be WAY past the point of positive BTC ROI any way you look at it. They would be under no obligation to offer "cloud hashing" as compensation before July so Plan B would only lower the amount of BTC lost at that point. It seems 100% clear now that it would be best to refund and purchase BTC directly as I can not see any chance at all that a Neptune will have positive BTC ROI even with Plan B. The only hope would be that the network hashrate levels off. Maybe I will hold onto my Neptune pre-order a bit longer to see what happens but it shows no sign of slowing down any time soon.

For me this marks the end of mining as KNC was my last hope for providing miners with a positive BTC ROI but it appears they too have succumb to the greed just like all the others who have found themselves in this position. I really was starting to buy into the idea that KNC was going to bring us early customers along for the ride but it's now obvious they've taken the ball and gone home without us...

[xstr8guy]

My only hope now is the collapse of mining doesn't cause the collapse of bitcoin.

bitcoin worked fine ~$100 last summer..  I wouldn't mind it going back down to screw these apes
there will be a lot more selling pressure of bitcoin than buying and the fees will just increase.

You've given me something to live for!  

It makes more sense that the collapse of mining will be the beginning of Bitcoin. Once people can no longer print their own money it starts to become legit.

I like your thinking.  That narrative makes for an interesting future history for Bitcoin.

But don't we need continued, uninterrupted hashing of the Blockchain to keep it viable?  There is a possible lesson to learn here.  Don't throw out your old mining gear when it becomes obsolete.  We may need to plug them back in someday to rescue Bitcoin from collapse.

[Phoenix1969]

While it's nice to finally get an official update it appears we won't be getting any concrete details any time soon and have to read between the lines. These are the main points I took from their update:

1) Neptunes will not ship before May as their 20nm chip design has not been "taped out" at this point. They are also not very confident that they will ship before July hence "Plan B". This means Neptunes will not have a positive BTC ROI with the current projected increase in network hashrate (which "Plan B" will contribute too).

2) They have chosen not to share the success of their 28nm chip with the early investustomers that took huge risks to make that success possible and instead will be directly competing against them by devaluing their Jupiter/Neptune miners with a private 28nm mining farm which will raise network difficulty prior to Neptune delivery.

I've really tried to hold onto the belief than KNC is 100% legit but I'm really starting to doubt that now. I seems very likely that the "Q1" part of the ship date advertised in the Neptune batch #1 pre-order was never a possibility and was intentionally misleading (worked on me). I have no idea why the "we're probably going to sell Jupiters from stock soon, hold onto some BTC" turned into "nevermind we're keeping them for ourselves" but greed is really the best guess.

Their "Plan B" might sound great on the surface but it is actually quite terrible for their Neptune customers. First, a private 28nm mining farm will directly lower the ROI of Neptune pre-orders before they even ship. Second if you really consider the fine print, Neptunes won't technically be late until July which will be WAY past the point of positive BTC ROI any way you look at it. They would be under no obligation to offer "cloud hashing" as compensation before July so Plan B would only lower the amount of BTC lost at that point. It seems 100% clear now that it would be best to refund and purchase BTC directly as I can not see any chance at all that a Neptune will have positive BTC ROI even with Plan B. The only hope would be that the network hashrate levels off. Maybe I will hold onto my Neptune pre-order a bit longer to see what happens but it shows no sign of slowing down any time soon.

For me this marks the end of mining as KNC was my last hope for providing miners with a positive BTC ROI but it appears they too have succumb to the greed just like all the others who have found themselves in this position. I really was starting to buy into the idea that KNC was going to bring us early customers along for the ride but it's now obvious they've taken the ball and gone home without us...

I'm pretty sure the statement is to use the 28nm farm to fufill the Neptune 3th orders....

[The Avenger]

I've really tried to hold onto the belief than KNC is 100% legit but I'm really starting to doubt that now. I seems very likely that the "Q1" part of the ship date advertised in the Neptune batch #1 pre-order was never a possibility and was intentionally misleading (worked on me). I have no idea why the "we're probably going to sell Jupiters from stock soon, hold onto some BTC" turned into "nevermind we're keeping them for ourselves" but greed is really the best guess.

As we are talking about greed

Considering how greedy knc are, you'd expect them to sell another batch or three of Jupiters. I guess they are stuck in the position between wanting to be greedy and cash in on functioning jupiter design. Or getting greedy for $13k orders for something they can sit on the money for another 7 months.

I've got to take my hat off to them - they seem to have managed both!