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Author Topic: Bitcoin is a snowball, not a bubble  (Read 3768 times)
bootlace
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April 08, 2013, 01:54:03 PM
 #1

There's been a lot of discussion here about whether we're in the middle of a bubble and if so when it's going to pop. I believe that Bitcoin is unlike many other forms of investments or assets because it's the first major non-government backed currency of our times. It's also a cutting edge technology that actually has lots of in-built advantages over other forms of modern currencies, let alone tulips of shells or whatever else the media tries to compare it to.

So, I like to think of Bitcoins right now as a snowball rather than a bubble. As long as we keep moving, the thing is just going to get bigger. Currencies are not like other assets where too much interest could be a bad thing, to the contrary, currencies only can become established if it grows large enough. So Bitcoin in fact needs to keep growing for it to become a legit currency, if it stalls and stops moving, I'm afraid it's just going to melt away.

Here's the snowball factor: the higher price goes, the more people hear about it, the more people learn about it, the more people buy it, the more people use it, then the price goes even higher, and more and more people keep getting added to the mix. All the meanwhile, as more people get into it, the more business are interested in it, the more businesses start using it, the more other businesses need to start considering it to not give competitors an edge, and so acceptance keeps on growing, at which point price rises, more media, more people etc... Basically it's a self-sustaining loop and this snowball NEEDS to get bigger. Once the snowball grows large enough and a critical mass has been reached with the number of people/businesses accepting it - then it will have reached a stable point and won't be able to melt without some insane outside pressure (like the sun aka governments). So, nowhere in this story does anything have to 'pop'.

I would have liked the snowball to grow a little slower so that the infrastructure would have a chance to grow with it (more stable exchanges, more UI friendly wallets etc) - but fast movement is certainly better than no movement.


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dg2010
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April 08, 2013, 01:59:19 PM
 #2

Snowballs do not grow forever. I've tried.

I once made a snowball that was 8ft in diameter. By the time it reached that size it took 3 large guys to push it any further.

Then when one of them stood on top it cracked and broke in half.

So basically, there is no point talking of bubbles or snowballs, growth MUST stop at some point.

bootlace
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April 08, 2013, 02:04:59 PM
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So basically, there is no point talking of bubbles or snowballs, growth MUST stop at some point.

Bubbles must pop as they grow, snowballs don't have to. This 'bubble' word is on the tip of every tongue, we must change this perspective.

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April 08, 2013, 02:07:12 PM
 #4

Snowballs do not grow forever. I've tried.

I once made a snowball that was 8ft in diameter. By the time it reached that size it took 3 large guys to push it any further.

Then when one of them stood on top it cracked and broke in half.

So basically, there is no point talking of bubbles or snowballs, growth MUST stop at some point.

Ah, but the sum of the parts was still the same, just smaller units. Satoshi balls if you will. Unlike a bubble which just dissipates into nothingness.

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April 08, 2013, 02:08:22 PM
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There's been a lot of discussion here about whether we're in the middle of a bubble

Yes.

and if so when it's going to pop.

Soon.



I believe that Bitcoin is unlike many other forms of investments or assets because it's the first major non-government backed currency of our times. It's also a cutting edge technology that actually has lots of in-built advantages over other forms of modern currencies,


And some drawbacks.



let alone tulips of shells or whatever else the media tries to compare it to.

So, I like to think of Bitcoins right now as a snowball rather than a bubble. As long as we keep moving, the thing is just going to get bigger. Currencies are not like other assets where too much interest could be a bad thing, to the contrary, currencies only can become established if it grows large enough. So Bitcoin in fact needs to keep growing for it to become a legit currency, if it stalls and stops moving, I'm afraid it's just going to melt away.

Here's the snowball factor: the higher price goes,

the more power it uses,


the more people hear about it, the more people learn about it, the more people buy it, the more people use it, then the price goes even higher,

and it uses even more electric energy,


and more and more people keep getting added to the mix. All the meanwhile, as more people get into it, the more business are interested in it, the more businesses start using it, the more other businesses need to start considering it to not give competitors an edge, and so acceptance keeps on growing, at which point price rises, more media, more people etc... Basically it's a self-sustaining loop and this snowball NEEDS to get bigger. Once the snowball grows large enough and a critical mass has been reached with the number of people/businesses accepting it - then it will have reached a stable point and won't be able to melt without some insane outside pressure (like the sun aka governments). So, nowhere in this story does anything have to 'pop'.

Surely if something pops, it will be a fuse.


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April 08, 2013, 02:49:08 PM
 #6

So, I like to think of Bitcoins right now as a snowball rather than a bubble. As long as we keep moving, the thing is just going to get bigger. Currencies are not like other assets where too much interest could be a bad thing, to the contrary, currencies only can become established if it grows large enough. So Bitcoin in fact needs to keep growing for it to become a legit currency, if it stalls and stops moving, I'm afraid it's just going to melt away.

Here's the snowball factor: the higher price goes, the more people hear about it, the more people learn about it, the more people buy it, the more people use it, then the price goes even higher, and more and more people keep getting added to the mix. All the meanwhile, as more people get into it, the more business are interested in it, the more businesses start using it, the more other businesses need to start considering it to not give competitors an edge, and so acceptance keeps on growing, at which point price rises, more media, more people etc... Basically it's a self-sustaining loop and this snowball NEEDS to get bigger. Once the snowball grows large enough and a critical mass has been reached with the number of people/businesses accepting it - then it will have reached a stable point and won't be able to melt without some insane outside pressure (like the sun aka governments). So, nowhere in this story does anything have to 'pop'.

I would have liked the snowball to grow a little slower so that the infrastructure would have a chance to grow with it (more stable exchanges, more UI friendly wallets etc) - but fast movement is certainly better than no movement.

I agree that your characterization and scenarios are possible.  A larger marketcap does contribute to confidence and other positive network effects for a currency.  The current chart could end up being like others I've seen where, say, an exploration company discovers a huge gold deposit, and then the market prices that in overnight as a vertical gapped rise to a permanently higher plateau level.  In this case, Bitcoin hasn't discovered a new gold deposit, but has discovered a new and more efficient monetary system with potential worldwide usage in the billions or trillions, and the vertical rise is occurring over several months and not overnight due to the slower speed at which the news is spreading via traditional media, plus the difficulty of getting funds to Gox.

There was a good blog post over the weekend outlining a similar argument to yours, differentiating between the implications of a rising price for an asset, versus a rising price for a currency.  Food for thought for any speculators getting scared by the BTC chart:

http://konradsgraf.com/blog1/2013/4/6/hyper-monetization-questioning-the-bitcoin-bubble-bubble.html

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April 08, 2013, 02:53:07 PM
 #7

The Bitcoin Bubble looks like the early stages of the Bitcoin Adoption Cycle.

Of course, I could be wrong.




Some good photoshopper might want to overlap the 2 images.
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April 08, 2013, 02:55:43 PM
 #8

Snowballs do not grow forever. I've tried.

I once made a snowball that was 8ft in diameter. By the time it reached that size it took 3 large guys to push it any further.

Then when one of them stood on top it cracked and broke in half.

So basically, there is no point talking of bubbles or snowballs, growth MUST stop at some point.

Ah, but the sum of the parts was still the same, just smaller units. Satoshi balls if you will. Unlike a bubble which just dissipates into nothingness.

lol @ dg2010, great analogy.

What happened to the Satoshi-snowballs when summer came and the conditions for snow were no longer met? They dissipated into nothingness. Until the next winter and a new snowball was created.

20 years of crypto/Digicash experience. BTC: 1CHCSdHZj9Umcek2wKkwzRTB3rLkUb8yma
ColdHardMetal
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April 08, 2013, 03:02:30 PM
 #9

Snowballs do not grow forever. I've tried.

I once made a snowball that was 8ft in diameter. By the time it reached that size it took 3 large guys to push it any further.

Then when one of them stood on top it cracked and broke in half.

So basically, there is no point talking of bubbles or snowballs, growth MUST stop at some point.

Ah, but the sum of the parts was still the same, just smaller units. Satoshi balls if you will. Unlike a bubble which just dissipates into nothingness.

lol @ dg2010, great analogy.

What happened to the Satoshi-snowballs when summer came and the conditions for snow were no longer met? They dissipated into nothingness. Until the next winter and a new snowball was created.

Damn global warming anti-BTC conspiracy!!

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April 08, 2013, 03:04:52 PM
 #10

Ever since the Gox hack there has been a significant negative correlation (p<0.05) between BTC traded on Gox and temperature anomaly. The temperature data is only available up to January 2013. The outlier on the chart is December 2012.



Temp data: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Volume data: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyzczsg2012-07-01zeg2013-01-26ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv


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April 08, 2013, 03:29:22 PM
 #11

You realize that snowballs do melt in spring, do you?  Grin

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flyhouse
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April 08, 2013, 03:45:58 PM
 #12

Bitcoin ain't a snowball.

MtGox is a snowball. Who has control over them? Who believes the data that they release?

MtGox at the moment is not subject to any regulation or laws, which means that they can do whatever they want, and they sure are in something big, assisted by some greedy investors. They want to suck the stupid money into the scheme, take it and whatever happens with BTC- they don't give a damn. And all this is damaging BTC- right now I think that nobody is trading anything in BTC, due to the volatile market. And volatile markets lead to a loss in cofidence.

READ HISTORY!
Matthew N. Wright
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April 08, 2013, 03:51:08 PM
 #13

Bitcoin ain't a snowball.

MtGox is a snowball. Who has control over them? Who believes the data that they release?

MtGox at the moment is not subject to any regulation or laws, which means that they can do whatever they want, and they sure are in something big, assisted by some greedy investors. They want to suck the stupid money into the scheme, take it and whatever happens with BTC- they don't give a damn. And all this is damaging BTC- right now I think that nobody is trading anything in BTC, due to the volatile market. And volatile markets lead to a loss in cofidence.

READ HISTORY!

Isn't it hilarious that people think Bitcoin is decentralized when every bit of influence is given by centralized entities?

Also, snowballs don't pop, they melt from too much heat.

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April 08, 2013, 03:52:16 PM
 #14

Bitcoin ain't a snowball.

MtGox is a snowball. Who has control over them? Who believes the data that they release?

MtGox at the moment is not subject to any regulation or laws, which means that they can do whatever they want, and they sure are in something big, assisted by some greedy investors. They want to suck the stupid money into the scheme, take it and whatever happens with BTC- they don't give a damn. And all this is damaging BTC- right now I think that nobody is trading anything in BTC, due to the volatile market. And volatile markets lead to a loss in cofidence.

READ HISTORY!

I've been wary of this very real possibility for quite some time. Mt. Gox is definitely as subject to corruption as anything else.

"To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy." -Sun Tzu
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April 08, 2013, 04:08:01 PM
 #15

Bitcoin is due to reach full capacity in 2140.

Some people, I don't want to say most, in this forum are saying that there are fundamental reasons for this rise. They would be correct, if today were 08/04/2021 for example, but it ain't.

Corruption, looked at globally as a whole, is rampant in societies, where there are few real government regulations and controls and information is eschewed in different kinds of ways. That said, I think that less than 50% of the people involved with BTC in some way, actually know what BTC is and how it works. I see a lot of greed and where there is greed, there is corruption. I sure hope that BTC survives in the long run, if it doesn't- then I sure hope that its' successor(and one there will be) manages to overcome this greed and let people exchange freely.
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April 08, 2013, 04:33:26 PM
 #16

I don't doubt that there will be several bubbles in the next few years and prices will reach in the thousands, but in the end, BTC is about stable exchange. It's not gold, it's a currency and people want to use it as such. And that's the fundamental thing here- most people who are in don't understand BTC. That's why there will be bubbles  Grin
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April 08, 2013, 04:42:59 PM
 #17

Hey look, another thread by a new adopter trying to justify his irrational speculative investing. Nice!
flyhouse
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April 08, 2013, 04:43:33 PM
 #18

Hey look, another thread by a new adopter trying to justify his irrational speculative investing. Nice!
+1
bootlace
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April 08, 2013, 05:06:15 PM
 #19

Hey look, another thread by a new adopter trying to justify his irrational speculative investing. Nice!

You know what they call someone who attacks the messenger (who they know nothing about) and not the points brought forward in a post, don't you? I think it's called either a troll or an idiot - I'll let you pick which category you fall under. 

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April 08, 2013, 05:08:25 PM
 #20

I don't need to address the points. My disregarding them pretty much tells you what I think of them, right? Not only that, but they've been addressed 100 fold across 100 different similar threads, hence my post. Or did that not click for you? Oh but because I don't lend credence to your subtle plea for reassurance I'm an idiot or troll? gtfoh.
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