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Author Topic: Gox bizarrity....  (Read 2108 times)
oakpacific
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April 08, 2013, 04:20:56 PM
 #21

I'll be watching the next time we move up to see if A) we lag, B) bid/ask stick 5% below current trades, and C) tiny fills occur at a 5% discount and keep the bid/ask supported at the lower level.

Not just moving up.

You should watch closely when a downtrend is reversed to a uptrend, what we saw is a uptrend reversed to a downtrend, due to the lag many people could have entirely no idea what the current "fair" price is.

In fact, during the crash from $75 to $50, we saw numerous times people panic sold at significantly lower than market price, I don't have a screenshot, but did make a thread to troll about this behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156823.0

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Manticore
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April 08, 2013, 05:02:07 PM
 #22

Not just moving up.

You should watch closely when a downtrend is reversed to a uptrend, what we saw is a uptrend reversed to a downtrend, due to the lag many people could have entirely no idea what the current "fair" price is.

I see the same action during sharp reversals or otherwise. But never on a sharp reversal back up, which is what tends to happen after a sell-off. No, bid/ask are stuck higher so once the selling stops, we go directly back up. I have never seen the bid/ask stick lower on the way up.

In fact, during the crash from $75 to $50, we saw numerous times people panic sold at significantly lower than market price, I don't have a screenshot, but did make a thread to troll about this behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156823.0

Thank you. Exactly! This is what I'm talking about. The bid/ask is biased to stick higher during sell-offs. It sticks much higher than executing prices....small filler buys on the ask somehow keep the bid/ask from moving downwards in spite of asymmetric dumping. Why would bid/ask not move downwards with sells if the transactions are, in fact, occurring at lower prices?

This is clearly an issue with Mt Gox and is almost never a product of 'panic selling'. Why does everyone assume a small correction/sell-off is a 'panic sell'? Ludicrous. No, these are simply orderly sell-offs (often on lowish volume) that somehow trigger lags, make bid/ask stick much higher than executions, and allow tiny buys on the ask to offset 100s of coins being sold with little bid/ask movement. I wouldn't be mentioning this if I saw this type of bias (reverse: lower bid/ask than executions, lowball filler sells, etc) on the upside, but I have yet to see it on the upside.



oakpacific
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April 09, 2013, 01:46:36 AM
 #23

Not just moving up.

You should watch closely when a downtrend is reversed to a uptrend, what we saw is a uptrend reversed to a downtrend, due to the lag many people could have entirely no idea what the current "fair" price is.

I see the same action during sharp reversals or otherwise. But never on a sharp reversal back up, which is what tends to happen after a sell-off. No, bid/ask are stuck higher so once the selling stops, we go directly back up. I have never seen the bid/ask stick lower on the way up.

In fact, during the crash from $75 to $50, we saw numerous times people panic sold at significantly lower than market price, I don't have a screenshot, but did make a thread to troll about this behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156823.0

Thank you. Exactly! This is what I'm talking about. The bid/ask is biased to stick higher during sell-offs. It sticks much higher than executing prices....small filler buys on the ask somehow keep the bid/ask from moving downwards in spite of asymmetric dumping. Why would bid/ask not move downwards with sells if the transactions are, in fact, occurring at lower prices?

This is clearly an issue with Mt Gox and is almost never a product of 'panic selling'. Why does everyone assume a small correction/sell-off is a 'panic sell'? Ludicrous. No, these are simply orderly sell-offs (often on lowish volume) that somehow trigger lags, make bid/ask stick much higher than executions, and allow tiny buys on the ask to offset 100s of coins being sold with little bid/ask movement. I wouldn't be mentioning this if I saw this type of bias (reverse: lower bid/ask than executions, lowball filler sells, etc) on the upside, but I have yet to see it on the upside.





Well, the volume maybe low, but the number of orders could be quite high, most of the panic buyers/sellers out there actually only trade very small volume.

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Le Happy Merchant
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April 09, 2013, 01:53:07 AM
 #24

Large spread occurs when price moves up too much in a day, because people have no time to pile up buy orders.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Never happens on the upside.

Can you present data backing this, or is it just how you feel about it ?

I've been watching this for weeks. I will try to put something together that is more conclusive. In the meantime, if anyone has evidence of this type of action on the upside, please post. I will have absolutely no problem admitting I'm wrong.

MagicalTux allready addressed this indirectly. The cause of the lag is supposedly because when trades occur the engine has to go and check all the awaiting trades to make sure the funds are still available before moving on to the next trade. On the way down this causes problems because there are buy orders that don't have enough funds, which gunk up the engine. On the way up this can't happen, because people are manually placing orders that are able to be filled, and on the other end people are only selling what BTC they have.

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April 09, 2013, 04:30:33 PM
 #25

412 seconds of lag on upswing.

Yes, but are you seeing bid/ask stick 5% lower than executed trades? And are you seeing tiny sells keep the bid/ask low in the face of 100s of coins being bought much higher? The reverse (tiny buys keep bid/ask artificially inflated) always happens when it drops.

It's not just the lag.....I'm talking about very subtle artificial support from Mt Gox to stem sell-offs.

This is now a moot point, the feedback loop has taken over and this will accelerate with or without Mt Gox's support. No, we are going up very high now.

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April 09, 2013, 04:33:36 PM
 #26


MagicalTux allready addressed this indirectly. The cause of the lag is supposedly because when trades occur the engine has to go and check all the awaiting trades to make sure the funds are still available before moving on to the next trade. On the way down this causes problems because there are buy orders that don't have enough funds, which gunk up the engine. On the way up this can't happen, because people are manually placing orders that are able to be filled, and on the other end people are only selling what BTC they have.


I'm not just talking about lag -- I'm talking about subtle support during sell-offs throughout the last three months.
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April 09, 2013, 07:17:35 PM
 #27

What is this thread about? I see red and green numbers but no explanation what's so "bizzarre" about them.

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April 09, 2013, 07:28:46 PM
 #28

What is this thread about? I see red and green numbers but no explanation what's so "bizzarre" about them.

It's a trading log that shows the pattern of trades on a sell-off of bitcoin. This same pattern happens whenever there is a sell-off.

During any sell-off, very tiny buys magically keep the price buoyant until the 'panic' subsides.
prof7bit
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April 09, 2013, 07:34:36 PM
 #29

What is this thread about? I see red and green numbers but no explanation what's so "bizzarre" about them.

It's a trading log that shows the pattern of trades on a sell-off of bitcoin. This same pattern happens whenever there is a sell-off.

During any sell-off, very tiny buys magically keep the price buoyant.

Oh I see, this is a tin foil thread. I didn't want to interrupt it. Maybe one day you will understand how bids and asks are matched and how trades happen on an exchange.

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Manticore
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April 09, 2013, 08:23:50 PM
 #30

What is this thread about? I see red and green numbers but no explanation what's so "bizzarre" about them.

It's a trading log that shows the pattern of trades on a sell-off of bitcoin. This same pattern happens whenever there is a sell-off.

During any sell-off, very tiny buys magically keep the price buoyant.

Oh I see, this is a tin foil thread. I didn't want to interrupt it. Maybe one day you will understand how bids and asks are matched and how trades happen on an exchange.

I know how bids and asks are matched; I trade equities quite frequently. Watch the next sell-off closely and you'll see what I'm talking about. When sell orders get backed up, price rolls over then the Gox lag stems 'panic selling' and the bid/ask sticks 5% higher than executing trades. Gox apparently doesn't know how to match the bid/ask.

When the 'panic selling' is over, the bid/ask remain at levels much higher than all previous trades. There is no orderly flow. 100s or 1000s of coins sell-off and only 2 or 3 coins get executed 5% higher than the sell-off but somehow the price bounces right back up based solely on those tiny trades. Normally the bid/ask would go down to reflect the 100s of coins that are being sold at lower prices, but this never happens. Call it tin foil if you want. The spread should not be over 5% during a minor sell-off.

gizmoh
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April 09, 2013, 08:50:52 PM
 #31

Yes i can confirm that..there is always tiny bid supports to manipulate the price on the buy form of mtgox site and the lag is more evident during sell off so that it can be filled with orders at manipulated tiny prices..
Either it is gox or some big holders geeks who can afford those tiny trade offs..

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