Was it a mistake to purchase Avalon batch #3?

[glendall]

I don't see how anyone could figure Av. 3 to be a bad buy.

Sure, like any other dude would have loved to been into batch 1 or 2 of course. What an incredible investment that turned out to be.

Batch 3 though, by all accounts, still looks like a terrific investment in the bigger picture.

I mean if you are worried about the hash rate increases coming just imagine where you'd be with no ASIC at all (like most people).  You certainly got more reasons to be happy than sad about this one.

And also consider the hoards and hoards of folks that bet on the BFL horse instead of the Avalon one. We're in much better position than those poor souls as well.

Things could only turn out badly if, in the remote chance, Avalon couldn't ship because of new shipping restrictions / it gets lost in the mail, or BTC suffers a massive collapse. I think either possibility is pretty remote.

short version: No

[shibaji]

If you bid more than 50btc, sure!

Wow, are you bipolar?   Am I talking with the half that said, "I will have to shut it down in the summer because the exponential increase in difficulty" or the half that now feels that the shutdown machine in July is worth 50BTC?   If you truly believe the machine is worthless to you in the summer and needs to be shutdown, ask a reasonable price and I will agree to it.   USD or BTC.   We can find some way to come to agreement so that whichever one of us is wrong, will not welch on the physical exchange after the holiday weekend.

+1

[Wayne_Chang]

I don't agree with this topic opinion.
Buying an ASIC miner is also a kind of invest. Nobody can ensure his invest is always right.
Even if you failed to get the invest mony back with the machine of Avalon batch #3, it is very normal and nobody you can blame.

[DPoS]

the only way i see tons 100's of TH showing up fast is if some big name chip design guys (whoever they are) pop up a kickstarter,.. they would get whatever funding they wanted but then the truth would spread that last ones in get squat so it would make a messy scene.. it would have to be a limited sale but then why bother, they just mine themselves..  that is the whole scam with BFL, if they could make miners they would mine, but since they dont care what dreams they shove in a box they sell thousands

Avalon played their cards as best as anyone could


 

[Rampion]

I don't agree with this topic opinion.
Buying an ASIC miner is also a kind of invest. Nobody can ensure his invest is always right.
Even if you failed to get the invest mony back with the machine of Avalon batch #3, it is very normal and nobody you can blame.

And still, you would be one of the very first 1,500 lucky persons that owns a piece of History of BTC: one machine of the first generation of the first BTC ASICs ever produced.

Cedivad: not that bad, right?

[BenTuras]

I think you're too negative. I bought 5 Ztex Quad's with fiat money and it took 7 months to break even, then the BTC price went nuts. So I exchanged some of the BTC to get back the fiat money put into them. Currently my only cost is electricity and my profit is around 3500% on a daily base
I think mining with FPGA's will be profitable for at least another year.
ASIC mining will probably be profitable for at least 3 years.
With profitable I mean electricity cost lower than generated BTC value.

[cedivad]

If you bid more than 50btc, sure!

Wow, are you bipolar?   Am I talking with the half that said, "I will have to shut it down in the summer because the exponential increase in difficulty" or the half that now feels that the shutdown machine in July is worth 50BTC?   If you truly believe the machine is worthless to you in the summer and needs to be shutdown, ask a reasonable price and I will agree to it.   USD or BTC.   We can find some way to come to agreement so that whichever one of us is wrong, will not welch on the physical exchange after the holiday weekend.

July != During the summer. Summer ends 3 months after July. I'm sure you know that.
If you want to we can bet on the difficulty at the end of the summer, maybe on bitbet or such websites, i'm not interested into giving away my avalon for a price determined 6 months in advance. Also, i would like to remember you, the OP asked to describe a worst case scenarion, that is 300TH at the time of delivery with an exponential rise. This is not what i expect, it's what i'm preparing for. Expect the worse, hope for the best, one of my best mottos.

And still, you would be one of the very first 1,500 lucky persons that owns a piece of History of BTC: one machine of the first generation of the first BTC ASICs ever produced.

Cedivad: not that bad, right?

I can assure you that when i placed my order it was more because of i wanted to decentralize the network going solo (it doesn't matter if you do a block each month) and because of the feelings i had thinking about ordering that hardware, just like the nerd i'm. God, have you looked at that pictures? They are orgasmic! However, given the repeated failure of the alternatives and the huge price spike, this has now become my major btc investment and i'm trying to do the possible to have it back in the best form possible. After all, it's a lot of money.

[Rampion]

If you bid more than 50btc, sure!

Wow, are you bipolar?   Am I talking with the half that said, "I will have to shut it down in the summer because the exponential increase in difficulty" or the half that now feels that the shutdown machine in July is worth 50BTC?   If you truly believe the machine is worthless to you in the summer and needs to be shutdown, ask a reasonable price and I will agree to it.   USD or BTC.   We can find some way to come to agreement so that whichever one of us is wrong, will not welch on the physical exchange after the holiday weekend.

July != During the summer. Summer ends 3 months after July. I'm sure you know that.
If you want to we can bet on the difficulty at the end of the summer, maybe on bitbet or such websites, i'm not interested into giving away my avalon for a price determined 6 months in advance. Also, i would like to remember you, the OP asked to describe a worst case scenarion, that is 300TH at the time of delivery with an exponential rise. This is not what i expect, it's what i'm preparing for. Expect the worse, hope for the best, one of my best mottos.

And still, you would be one of the very first 1,500 lucky persons that owns a piece of History of BTC: one machine of the first generation of the first BTC ASICs ever produced.

Cedivad: not that bad, right?

I can assure you that when i placed my order it was more because of i wanted to decentralize the network going solo (it doesn't matter if you do a block each month) and because of the feelings i had thinking about ordering that hardware, just like the nerd i'm. God, have you looked at that pictures? They are orgasmic! However, given the repeated failure of the alternatives and the huge price spike, this has now become my major btc investment and i'm trying to do the possible to have it back in the best form possible. After all, it's a lot of money.

I understand. But BTC price is still so volatile that it will take a while for the very big players to invest significantly in producing their own mining hardware. Sure, we will have more ASICminer like projects, but no way we are seeing companies of the likes of AMD stepping in, as some are suggesting, in the very next few months. It will take a bit longer. We will see a huge spike in difficulty, but it will be slower than you predict, ergo your batch #2 and #3 avalons will ROI and still give you a profit. We can bet on that

[Minor Miner]

I have ordered too.   I also believe in a 1800TH plateau and that 300TH is the beginning.   BUT, I believe difficulty and price will be correlated.   Not linearly because I think price is quite a ways ahead of difficulty right now.   My belief is that at 1000TH you will have a price around $840.   And that will be a good thing.   A great thing will be when there are 1,800TH of ASICs and the ROI is more like 10 months to a year.

[jayeeyee]

I have stil yet figured out how to freakin order a batch 3 in the first place.  By the time I checked, it was OOS.. dafuq -__-

[StringTheory]

It really comes down to the fact that no one can answer this question.  There are simply too many variables, from a massive difficulty rise, to even the full collapse of BTC before that ROI time.  At this point just take a step back, deep breath and wait for some updates, nothing anyone is going to say here will lead you to the closure you are looking for.

[DPoS]

I have stil yet figured out how to freakin order a batch 3 in the first place.  By the time I checked, it was OOS.. dafuq -__-

It was staring me in the face but I didn't have enough bitcoins.... and not so quick to change $5-6k into bitcoins so had to watch it go bye bye

[100%digital]

....and its gone.


ROI on batch3 not looking so hot right now. considering some 'investors' purchased coin at 100+

[Rampion]

....and its gone.


ROI on batch3 not looking so hot right now. considering some 'investors' purchased coin at 100+

It depends at how you look at it. I want an Avalon to mine BTC, and I would like to have my 75btc back + more BTC. If prices go down a lot, GPU miners will turn off their machines and ROI could be easier for an Avalon.

Obviously I don't give a f*** about the exchange rate.

[BCMan]

....and its gone.


ROI on batch3 not looking so hot right now. considering some 'investors' purchased coin at 100+

It depends at how you look at it. I want an Avalon to mine BTC, and I would like to have my 75btc back + more BTC. If prices go down a lot, GPU miners will turn off their machines and ROI could be easier for an Avalon.

Obviously I don't give a f*** about the exchange rate.

Haha. Good luck with buying it out in 10 years.

[alexh]

Im glad i didn't buy one, just a pain in the ass regarding everything from what im reading.

[DrG]

I'm wishing I bought more 

[100%digital]

....and its gone.


ROI on batch3 not looking so hot right now. considering some 'investors' purchased coin at 100+

It depends at how you look at it. I want an Avalon to mine BTC, and I would like to have my 75btc back + more BTC. If prices go down a lot, GPU miners will turn off their machines and ROI could be easier for an Avalon.

Obviously I don't give a f*** about the exchange rate.

fair enough, i can totally support that. however, for most new users who purchased an avalon (or 'shares' to one) are concerned with breaking even via USD, and then keeping profits in btc.

[Minor Miner]

I'm wishing I bought more 

I'm wishing we would get an update on shipping of II and III.

[creativex]

....and its gone.


ROI on batch3 not looking so hot right now. considering some 'investors' purchased coin at 100+

It depends at how you look at it. I want an Avalon to mine BTC, and I would like to have my 75btc back + more BTC. If prices go down a lot, GPU miners will turn off their machines and ROI could be easier for an Avalon.

Obviously I don't give a f*** about the exchange rate.

+1

This obsession with BTC/fiat exchange rates is mind boggling. This is precisely why one gets in to Bitcoin to begin with.