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Author Topic: How do you day trade?  (Read 2265 times)
PachucoBro
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April 10, 2013, 01:21:35 AM
 #21


my BTC *holdings* are currently valuated at more than my retirement in far less time, sure, yes... but there are no "returns" yet unless
you're cashing out in some form. if you can do that without running the "what if it goes up waaaaay more" then more power to you, i cant!


Ok so you are talking semantics then... yes I still haev BTC and if I cashed them out at this very moment which is totally feasible THEN I would have 'returns'.

..whatever..

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iameric
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April 10, 2013, 01:36:15 AM
 #22


There's not a buy or sell every 15 minutes just the opportunity IF the EMAs crossed during that period.  Below is a graphical representation of my most recent trades.

The blue line is the short EMA, the red line is the long EMA, and the orange line is the price.

A) Buy @ 143 USD
B) Sell @ 181 USD
C) Buy @ 188 USD


I understand that there's not a buy or sell every 15 minutes.


What I was saying is that when you bought at 143 or 188, it immediately could have dropped after that, immediately triggering the sell and a loss, your system claims "it is not likely to based on this mathematical relationship..."

This could happen at any of your buy points... your claim is that based on long term vs short term averages you are finding good buy points.


Sure, the system mitigates losses intelligently, the arbitrary portion is claiming a long-term and short-term exponential average crossover can divine future behavior of bitcoin valuation...





for example, it would be interesting to test this system on the 30$ -> $2 crash. How much would it have gained/lost if you applied it to a pre-bubble + post bubble burst. What would the returns be in the years after that? etc.


The sell at 188 happened because there was a drop in the price causing the short EMA to pass back under the long EMA, but I do understand what you are saying.  If that downward price fluctuation was just a temporary price drop due to a large sell or whatever reason then the EMA may sell unnecessarily.  But what you are referring to is called whipsaws.

I do agree I would like to see how highly volatile price changes would affect the ROI.  I can run simulations to see how much I would have made using historical data.
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April 10, 2013, 05:51:46 AM
 #23

I had moved my coins from my personal wallet to mtgox back in mid-March in an attempt to day trade.

That was a mistake. I lost out on a considerable amount and as a result I have less coins now than I did originally.

PachucoBro
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April 10, 2013, 06:09:05 AM
 #24

I had moved my coins from my personal wallet to mtgox back in mid-March in an attempt to day trade.

That was a mistake. I lost out on a considerable amount and as a result I have less coins now that I did.

I feel your pain. I did the same thing after buying in at $104... ended buying fully back in at around $135. Decided there just was no down swings and it was better to just hold 'em.

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April 10, 2013, 06:19:48 AM
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I have a feeling you'd be best off just holding lol. You can't rly buy low sell high when the price is just going up Tongue (Or close to)
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April 10, 2013, 06:24:36 AM
 #26

I had moved my coins from my personal wallet to mtgox back in mid-March in an attempt to day trade.

That was a mistake. I lost out on a considerable amount and as a result I have less coins now that I did.

I feel your pain. I did the same thing after buying in at $104... ended buying fully back in at around $135. Decided there just was no down swings and it was better to just hold 'em.

There have been occasional down swings after hitting a new high. With mtgox's ridiculous 10 minute trading lag, even if you witness the swing it's very difficult to take advantage of it.

daybyter
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April 10, 2013, 08:54:14 AM
 #27

Look for Price-Differences and do arb?



what is arb?

Triangle arbitrage.

iameric
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April 10, 2013, 07:40:32 PM
 #28

Yea but I was saying that your strategy could be useless. With price increasing as steadily as it has, you could've bought and then sold randomly and made a profit 9/10 times.
Did you sell all your BTC in the $200s because my script went off and definitely sold everything at $240.

So yes so long as the price was steadily increasing you might be better off holding your BTC for the long term but like I said how would you ever really know the appropriate time to sell.
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